Has Josh Allen reached his ceiling?

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It would be nice of the offense to show up more than once against the Chiefs in the postseason. Do you disagree with this?

 

Do you disagree that there have been postseason games that the defense has showed up and the offense hasn’t?

Name one that wasn't played in a hurricane 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Name one that wasn't played in a hurricane 

Unfortunately, they all count.

 

If the Bills lost that game 13-10, it would’ve just been more proof the defense was letting down Josh Allen! The offense put up 10, that should’ve been enough!

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Unfortunately, they all count.

 

If the Bills lost that game 13-10, it would’ve just been more proof the defense was letting down Josh Allen! The offense put up 10, that should’ve been enough!

So your proof that the defense actually does show up in playoff games is the singular one w 25mph winds

 

you got to sell me a little harder than that

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So your proof that the defense actually does show up in playoff games is the singular one w 25mph winds

 

you got to sell me a little harder than that

 

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It would be nice of the offense to show up more than once against the Chiefs in the postseason. Do you disagree with this?

 

Do you disagree that there have been postseason games that the defense has showed up and the offense hasn’t?

That’s all I said. Feel free to disagree. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

That’s all I said. Feel free to disagree. 

So you're mad at the offense for showing up 50% of the time in the playoffs vs Chiefs 

 

How should I feel about the defense showing up 0% of the time😂😂

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So you're mad at the offense for showing up 50% of the time in the playoffs vs Chiefs 

 

How should I feel about the defense showing up 0% of the time😂😂

1 vs 0.

 

1 vs 0.

 

The only difference is the defense actually pulled out the game they carried the offense. The offense “carried” the defense to a loss.

 

😂😂

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

1 vs 0.

 

1 vs 0.

 

The only difference is the defense actually pulled out the game they carried the offense. The offense “carried” the defense to a loss.

 

😂😂

Since 2019 Bills offense in the playoffs has scored 25.9ppg. that's very good

 

Bills defense has allowed 25.5ppg, that's very bad

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Since 2019 Bills offense in the playoffs has scored 25.9ppg. that's very good

 

Bills defense has allowed 25.5ppg, that's very bad

Garbage time via the Chiefs will help that average. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Garbage time via the Chiefs will help that average. 

So will a hurricane

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t know if he’s a JAG but I can’t get on board with the reason KC isn’t performing is him. That’s the only difference in WR core. Yet the overwhelming narrative is not that Mahomes is playing poorly, it’s that he doesn’t have any weapons. 

 

It's a good reminder that having an above average WR2 really is THAT important. It has a trickle down effect to the rest of the offense. Going from JJSS to MVS is a massive drop off and it affects everything. That's why in the offseason I was so gung ho about signing DeAndre Hopkins.

 

Also to be fair Kelce looks like he has lost a step too. Maybe dating a once in a generation superstar has caused him to lose focus or maybe it's just age. But clearly he is not his usual self right now.

 

In retrospect isn't it crazy that Mahomes had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both in their prime?? I mean that is an all-time great offensive supporting cast.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's a good reminder that having an above average WR2 really is THAT important. It has a trickle down effect to the rest of the offense. Going from JJSS to MVS is a massive drop off and it affects everything. That's why in the offseason I was so gung ho about signing DeAndre Hopkins.

 

Also to be fair Kelce looks like he has lost a step too. Maybe dating a once in a generation superstar has caused him to lose focus or maybe it's just age. But clearly he is not his usual self right now.

 

In retrospect isn't it crazy that Mahomes had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both in their prime?? I mean that is an all-time great offensive supporting cast.

 

Prime Tyreek Hill prime Kelce and Andy Reid to boot

 

Talk about a set up offensively

[Mikie2times]

42 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's a good reminder that having an above average WR2 really is THAT important. It has a trickle down effect to the rest of the offense. Going from JJSS to MVS is a massive drop off and it affects everything. That's why in the offseason I was so gung ho about signing DeAndre Hopkins.

 

Also to be fair Kelce looks like he has lost a step too. Maybe dating a once in a generation superstar has caused him to lose focus or maybe it's just age. But clearly he is not his usual self right now.

 

In retrospect isn't it crazy that Mahomes had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both in their prime?? I mean that is an all-time great offensive supporting cast.

 

That's fine and all, but this entire conversation is predicated on accepting the argument that it's the WR's and not Mahomes which is purely a subjective exercise . I agree as far as how talented that roster was with Hill. It was shocking how easily Mahomes transitioned without him to win a Super Bowl. Almost like it never really mattered as much as people think because he was just playing at that high of a level. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

That's fine and all, but this entire conversation is predicated on accepting the argument that it's the WR's and not Mahomes which is purely a subjective exercise .

 

It's pretty clearly the pass catchers. Mahomes can't find open guys and when he does a lot of times they drop the ball. In the Josh Allen era I've become somewhat of an expert on that handicap so I know what I'm seeing when I watch the Chiefs. I've seen more negative plays from Mahomes this year compared to last, but again I think having worse pass catchers makes him feel like he has to press more to move the ball. I don't blame him at all for their struggles this year.

 

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I agree as far as how talented that roster was with Hill. It was shocking how easily Mahomes transitioned without him to win a Super Bowl. Almost like it never really mattered as much as people think because he was just playing at that high of a level. 

 

I mean it definitely mattered. That stretch of 2018-2020 was obviously the best offense in the Mahomes era. 2021 I thought Mahomes genuinely was the problem with some of their offensive struggles, including the AFCCG where I thought Mahomes was the single largest reason they lost that game against the Bengals. It happens.

 

And last year he still had a great offensive supporting cast, it just wasn't "two HOF pass catchers plus a HOF play caller" great.

 

I just wish people gave the same level of understanding to Allen that they give to Mahomes. We've seen what Mahomes looks like with a bad OL - he got blown out in the Super Bowl. We've seen what he looks like with a bad defense - he failed to beat the Pats in the AFCCG. Now this year we've seen what he looks like with a below average group of pass catchers. Allen has had to deal with all of these issues at various times since his rookie year. He's overcome them about as well as possible IMO.

 

I agree that Allen's ceiling is higher than Mahomes and that as a trade off his floor is lower but overall I think they're very similar talents.

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's pretty clearly the pass catchers. Mahomes can't find open guys and when he does a lot of times they drop the ball. In the Josh Allen era I've become somewhat of an expert on that handicap so I know what I'm seeing when I watch the Chiefs. I've seen more negative plays from Mahomes this year compared to last, but again I think having worse pass catchers makes him feel like he has to press more to move the ball. I don't blame him at all for their struggles this year.

 

 

I mean it definitely mattered. That stretch of 2018-2020 was obviously the best offense in the Mahomes era. 2021 I thought Mahomes genuinely was the problem with some of their offensive struggles, including the AFCCG where I thought Mahomes was the single largest reason they lost that game against the Bengals. It happens.

 

And last year he still had a great offensive supporting cast, it just wasn't "two HOF pass catchers plus a HOF play caller" great.

 

I just wish people gave the same level of understanding to Allen that they give to Mahomes. We've seen what Mahomes looks like with a bad OL - he got blown out in the Super Bowl. We've seen what he looks like with a bad defense - he failed to beat the Pats in the AFCCG. Now this year we've seen what he looks like with a below average group of pass catchers. Allen has had to deal with all of these issues at various times since his rookie year. He's overcome them about as well as possible IMO.

 

I agree that Allen's ceiling is higher than Mahomes and that as a trade off his floor is lower but overall I think they're very similar talents.

Holy smokes to the bolded. 
 

Mahomes took a terrible defense to the AFCCG, and barely lost in OT. 
 

Mahomes took a horrific OL and lost in the Super Bowl. 
 

Mahomes has a horrific group of pass catchers and is still running for #1 seed in the AFC.
 

And you’re asking why can’t we also give Allen grace when he gets blown out in the divisional round with the #1 defense and Stef Diggs? Or when he is the 10th seed in the AFC with an average defense? Or when he gets blown out in the AFCCG?

 

L OH ***** L

 

Mahomes’ worst year, ever, in his career, would be the best in Allen’s. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by FireChans

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I feel like our line has played pretty well

 

This next draft is a receiver draft we need to take at least two

 

It's frustrating because our OL is better than last year and yet we've been struggling in recent weeks (minus the Jets game) on offense.  

 

So although I'm happy with the progress the line has made, it's not performing as well as the NFL's elite lines.  I know some analytics site somewhere says it is but, watching games, I don't believe it.  

[Orlando Tim]

Josh peaked in the playoffs in 2021,  all but impossible to be better than that. He will never have that perfect season but I hope these last 6 games he goes back to the situation where he is the best player on the field each week. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

It would be nice of the offense to show up more than once against the Chiefs in the postseason. Do you disagree with this?

 

Do you disagree that there have been postseason games that the defense has showed up and the offense hasn’t?

 

Question 1? Sure it would be great if they balled out in both. How about the defense not showing up in either game though? I mean come on defense.

 

Question2? No. I don't disagree at all. But that is literally the only game the defensive performance outweighed the offense.

 

Let's go through them one by one in chronological order:

 

2019

Texans WC: Wash. Both were good in the first half. Both sucked in the second half. Pretty clear here, I think. No arguments?

 

2020

Colts WC: Offense outperformed the defense. I know you are going to try and explain how this wasn't the case. I'll let you form the first argument on this one and see if it's enough to change my mind. Best case scenario for the defense on this one is that it is a wash, but I really think it leans noticeably to the offense outperforming the defense. 

 

Ravens Divisional: Defense outperforms the offense. No argument from me here.

 

Chiefs Conference Championship: Offense outperforms the defense. Okay, I'll go first on this one. Everyone probably thinks the Divisional game the following year was the Bills defenses worst postseason performance to date in the Allen era. Probably because of 13 seconds and all. But they would be incorrect IMO. In the conference championship game the Bills defense surrendered 38 points with half a quarter to go in the game still. In the divisional round the following year the defense would at least hold the Chiefs to 26 points before wetting the bed with under 2 minutes left in the game to go on to give up 2 TD's and a FG to close out the game.

 

What about the offense? Well, they started the game with scoring drives on their first two possessions to take a 9-0 lead. Remember, they only managed 17 points in the regular season game that year against the same Chiefs defense playing at home. So, in terms of showing up they were already over halfway there through one quarter of play. 

 

Then the Bills defense on the next three Chiefs possessions gave up TD, TD, TD, to give up 21 points in the first half. They only gave up 26 total in the regular season game. The Bills offense would add on a FG to end the half to net 12 points for the first half. Again, only 17 points scored total by the Bills offense in the regular season game. They are well on their way to surpassing that total. They just need the defense to keep it close to their regular season performance and the Bills can have a shot to win the game in the 4th quarter. Instead, they would give up another 10 points in the third and another 7 in the 4th. 

 

The Bills final TD comes with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter to give them 21 points for the game. Surpassing their regular season total. It's only garbage time at this point because the Bills defense failed in keeping the Chiefs to under 30 points when they held them to 26 in the regular season match up. They have given up 38 on the scoreboard to this point. Bills would tack on another FG. 

 

2021:

Patriots WC: Wash. Giving up 17 to the offenses first ever perfect game maybe doesn't seem like an actual wash or a disservice to the offense. But the bottom line is the defense only gave up 3 points in the first half. That's going to win a lot of games in the postseason unless you have something weird like the Texans WC game. They surrendered two TD's in the second half but at that point you are playing prevent defense because both units did what they were supposed to do. 

 

Chiefs Divisional: Offense outperforms the defense. Don't think we need much more explanation on this one. 

 

2022:

Dolphins WC: Wash. The offense had a dominant game here. They just had too many turnovers including a costly one. But still, 3 turnovers and a dropped TD in the end zone by Knox and they still managed to score 31 points? Yikes. Defense, you don't want to give up 24 points to a third string QB at home. But the offense put the defense in some bad positions. And no matter the QB, the Dolphins still have explosive play makers. 

 

Bengals Divisional: Wash. The defense gives up TD, TD to start the game. The offense goes punt, punt to start the game. And gets their first TD on their 3rd possession. Half time score is 17-7. Giving up 34 points in a game is bad. Only scoring 14 points in a game is also very bad. Neither unit was good. We end up with a one score game at 17-10 halfway through the third quarter. Hey, the Bills defense is doing pretty good right? Bengals still only have 17 points. Well, not really, the Bengals still only have 17 points because the Bills offense started with the ball in the second half and just had a 7+ minute FG drive. Once the Bengals do finally get the ball in the second half, that well rested Bills defense (they probably haven't been on the field in close to an hour) would promptly give up 10 points on the Bengals first two second half possessions. Simply put neither unit was good enough in this game. Total team loss. 

 

My final tally:

 

Bad Washes -2 (Texans and Bengals)

Good Washes- 2 (Patriots and Dolphins)

Defense better- 1 (Ravens)

Offense better- 3 (Cheifs x2 and Colts)

Edited November 24, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's pretty clearly the pass catchers. Mahomes can't find open guys and when he does a lot of times they drop the ball. In the Josh Allen era I've become somewhat of an expert on that handicap so I know what I'm seeing when I watch the Chiefs. I've seen more negative plays from Mahomes this year compared to last, but again I think having worse pass catchers makes him feel like he has to press more to move the ball. I don't blame him at all for their struggles this year.

 

 

I mean it definitely mattered. That stretch of 2018-2020 was obviously the best offense in the Mahomes era. 2021 I thought Mahomes genuinely was the problem with some of their offensive struggles, including the AFCCG where I thought Mahomes was the single largest reason they lost that game against the Bengals. It happens.

 

And last year he still had a great offensive supporting cast, it just wasn't "two HOF pass catchers plus a HOF play caller" great.

 

I just wish people gave the same level of understanding to Allen that they give to Mahomes. We've seen what Mahomes looks like with a bad OL - he got blown out in the Super Bowl. We've seen what he looks like with a bad defense - he failed to beat the Pats in the AFCCG. Now this year we've seen what he looks like with a below average group of pass catchers. Allen has had to deal with all of these issues at various times since his rookie year. He's overcome them about as well as possible IMO.

 

I agree that Allen's ceiling is higher than Mahomes and that as a trade off his floor is lower but overall I think they're very similar talents.

It's all a sliding scale with how competent the QB is. Josh is not at the level of Mahomes and has never accomplished even a shred of what Mahomes has accomplished. Not with a top 5 statistical defense, not with an All Pro WR. Now this year, not with an All Pro WR or a high end TE or a Top 5 RB statistically and what statistic sites like PFF rate as a top 10 offensive line. The only reason people like me debate against Josh is this notion that he even in a conversation with Mahomes. He just isn't right now. He's one of the better QB's in the league, but he has never won even a AFC championship game. Any QB who is actually as good as some of you guys make him out to be wouldn't need the qualifiers you give Josh. It really is that simple. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 The only reason people like me debate against Josh is this notion that he even in a conversation with Mahomes. He just isn't right now. He's one of the better QB's in the league, but he has played in one AFC championship game. Any QB who is actually as good as some of you guys make him out to be wouldn't need the qualifiers you give Josh. It really is that simple. 

 

Only push back you would get from me here is if you are talking career or this season. We always have to define the timeline we are talking about. If we are talking career, I agree with you. If we are talking this season, Josh absolutely is in Mahomes class. I suspect you are talking career and not this season. But when you say "he just isn't right now", what is right now? Because that does sound like this season. 

[Mikie2times]

18 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Question 1? Sure it would be great if they balled out in both. How about the defense not showing up in either game though? I mean come on defense.

 

Question2? No. I don't disagree at all. But that is literally the only game the defensive performance outweighed the offense.

 

Let's go through them one by one in chronological order:

 

2019

Texans WC: Wash. Both were good in the first half. Both sucked in the second half. Pretty clear here, I think. No arguments?

 

2020

Colts WC: Offense outperformed the defense. I know you are going to try and explain how this wasn't the case. I'll let you form the first argument on this one and see if it's enough to change my mind. Best case scenario for the defense on this one is that it is a wash, but I really think it leans noticeably to the offense outperforming the defense. 

 

Ravens Divisional: Defense outperforms the offense. No argument from me here.

 

Chiefs Conference Championship: Offense outperforms the defense. Okay, I'll go first on this one. Everyone probably thinks the Divisional game the following year was the Bills defenses worst postseason performance to date in the Allen era. Probably because of 13 seconds and all. But they would be incorrect IMO. In the conference championship game the Bills defense surrendered 38 points with half a quarter to go in the game still. In the divisional round the following year the defense would at least hold the Chiefs to 26 points before wetting the bed with under 2 minutes left in the game to go on to give up 2 TD's and a FG to close out the game.

 

What about the offense? Well, they started the game with scoring drives on their first two possessions to take a 9-0 lead. Remember, they only managed 17 points in the regular season game that year against the same Chiefs defense playing at home. So, in terms of showing up they were already over halfway there through one quarter of play. 

 

Then the Bills defense on the next three Chiefs possessions gave up TD, TD, TD, to give up 21 points in the first half. They only gave up 26 total in the regular season game. The Bills offense would add on a FG to end the half to net 12 points for the first half. Again, only 17 points scored total by the Bills offense in the regular season game. They are well on their way to surpassing that total. They just need the defense to keep it close to their regular season performance and the Bills can have a shot to win the game in the 4th quarter. Instead, they would give up another 10 points in the third and another 7 in the 4th. 

 

The Bills final TD comes with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter to give them 21 points for the game. Surpassing their regular season total. It's only garbage time at this point because the Bills defense failed in keeping the Chiefs to under 30 points when they held them to 26 in the regular season match up. They have given up 38 on the scoreboard to this point. Bills would tack on another FG. 

 

2021:

Patriots WC: Wash. Giving up 17 to the offenses first ever perfect game maybe doesn't seem like an actual wash or a disservice to the offense. But the bottom line is the defense only gave up 3 points in the first half. That's going to win a lot of games in the postseason unless you have something weird like the Texans WC game. They surrendered two TD's in the second half but at that point you are playing prevent defense because both units did what they were supposed to do. 

 

Chiefs Divisional: Offense outperforms the defense. Don't think we need much more explanation on this one. 

 

2022:

Dolphins WC: Wash. The offense had a dominant game here. They just had too many turnovers including a costly one. But still, 3 turnovers and a dropped TD in the end zone by Knox and they still managed to score 31 points? Yikes. Defense, you don't want to give up 24 points to a third string QB at home. But the offense put the defense in some bad positions. And no matter the QB, the Dolphins still have explosive play makers. 

 

Bengals Divisional: Wash. The defense gives up TD, TD to start the game. The offense goes punt, punt to start the game. And gets their first TD on their 3rd possession. Half time score is 17-7. Giving up 34 points in a game is bad. Only scoring 14 points in a game is also very bad. Neither unit was good. We end up with a one score game at 17-10 halfway through the third quarter. Hey, the Bills defense is doing pretty good right? Bengals still only have 17 points. Well, not really, the Bengals still only have 17 points because the Bills offense started with the ball in the second half and just had a 7+ minute FG drive. Once the Bengals do finally get the ball in the second half, that well rested Bills defense (they probably haven't been on the field in close to an hour) would promptly give up 10 points on the Bengals first two second half possessions. Simply put neither unit was good enough in this game. Total team loss. 

 

My final tally:

 

Bad Washes -2 (Texans and Bengals)

Good Washes- 2 (Patriots and Dolphins)

Defense better- 1 (Ravens)

Offense better- 3 (Cheifs x2 and Colts)

 

 

Do yourself a favor and review the offenses performance in some of the playoff games you think are a wash. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Mikie2times