Offensive Formations and Personnel

[freddyjj]

Now that OBD has made their cuts and gotten the 53 man roster pretty much nailed down, wanted to see what the board thinks the personnel groups will be in various offensive formations.  I used Sharps Personnel Grouping frequency to determine what our formation utilization looked like in 2021.  So the following has groupings, possible personnel and usage last year:

 

10: 1 RB, 4WRs: Singletary, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder?  Does Shakir take some plays away from slot?    Bills ran this formation on 7% of downs in 2021.  Do they use it more with a healthier group this year?

11 : 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs:  Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie.   Early downs?  Will they use Cook on 3rd and long and maybe use Crowder/Shakir in place of McKenzie.  Bills ran this 71% of plays last year.  With new OL and better run blocking does this formation see less use ?

12 : 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR: Moss, Knox, Sweeney/Morris, Diggs Davis.  Used this on 8% of plays last year. This was   primarily used in red zone and short yardage with an OL as the TE in short yardage packages.

21 : 2RB, 1TE, 2WR:  Gilliam, Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis.  The old pro set with Gilliam used as Fullback or H  Back.  Bills ran this on 10% of offensive plays last year.  Will they use Moss and Cook as an Alternative              pairing to force some LB coverage on Cook?  Would require dressing 3 RBs besides Jones and Gilliam. 

 

What effect will Dorsey and Kromer have on the offensive formations philosophy in 2022?

Edited August 30, 2022 by freddyjj

[Marvin]

4 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Now that OBD has made their cuts and gotten the 53 man roster pretty much nailed down, wanted to see what the board thinks the personnel groups will be in various offensive formations.  I used Sharps Personnel Grouping frequency to determine what our formation utilization looked like in 2021.  So the following has groupings, possible personnel and usage last year:

 

10: 1 RB, 4WRs: Singletary, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder?  Does Shakir take some plays away from slot?    Bills ran this formation on 7% of downs in 2021.  Do they use it more with a healthier group this year?

11 : 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs:  Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie.   Early downs?  Will they use Cook on 3rd and long and maybe use Crowder/Shakir in place of McKenzie.  Bills ran this 71% of plays last year.  With new OL and better run blocking does this formation see less use ?

12 : 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR: Moss, Knox, Sweeney/Morris, Diggs Davis.  Used this on 8% of plays last year. This was   primarily used in red zone and short yardage with an OL as the TE in short yardage packages.

21 : 2RB, 1TE, 2WR:  Gilliam, Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis.  The old pro set with Gilliam used as Fullback or H  Back.  Bills ran this on 10% of offensive plays last year.  Will they use Moss and Cook as an Alternative              pairing to force some LB coverage on Cook?  Would require dressing 3 RBs besides Jones and Gilliam. 

 

What effect will Dorsey and Kromer have on the offensive formations philosophy in 2022?

Nice breakdown of the personnel and frequency.

[ndirish1978]

Thanks for the breakdown! I think we'll see a lot more 12 and 10 personnel this year. I can also see us lining up in 21 and then sending cook out to the flat presnap. Both Cook and Shakir could really help us with some formation wrinkles that, while they may not result in stats for the rookies, could very well work to the benefit of our other weapons. 

[vincec]

I think you’ll see Moss when they go 10 because of his blitz pickup ability.

There was a lot of talk about using more 12 but they really only have one good TE so I doubt you’ll see this much more than last year.

 

[947]

I think our 10 formation will have Knox in the slot at least as much as we'll have a WR.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

32 minutes ago, 947 said:

I think our 10 formation will have Knox in the slot at least as much as we'll have a WR.

Just to clarify, not that it matters because we all catch your drift - 

 

10 is the personnel. It refers to the number of RBs and TEs on the field. For example, 10 would equate to 1RB,0TEs, 21 being 2RBs,1TE.

 

The personnel does not indicate the formation, although it can heavily impact what formation may be called. To use your example, you can have a 2x2 or doubles set out of 10 personnel, 11 personnel or anything really. Utilizing multiple personnel groupings within a single formation gives teams flexibility, and allows them to try and find advantages in 1v1 match ups based on alignments. 
 

Because defenses are constantly aware of what personnel grouping is being run onto the field by the offense, they generally match their defenders to how they see best fit to defend that down and distance with those particular players. 
 

the advantage becomes obvious when teams can use different packages, like 12 personnel, to run an extra LB on the field, and then line up or motion in a way that allows that extra LB to be forced into a coverage situation that is not ideal. The same can be said with the run game. 
 

It truly is a chess match.

Edited August 31, 2022 by EmotionallyUnstable

[EmotionallyUnstable]

5 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Now that OBD has made their cuts and gotten the 53 man roster pretty much nailed down, wanted to see what the board thinks the personnel groups will be in various offensive formations.  I used Sharps Personnel Grouping frequency to determine what our formation utilization looked like in 2021.  So the following has groupings, possible personnel and usage last year:

 

10: 1 RB, 4WRs: Singletary, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder?  Does Shakir take some plays away from slot?    Bills ran this formation on 7% of downs in 2021.  Do they use it more with a healthier group this year?

11 : 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs:  Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie.   Early downs?  Will they use Cook on 3rd and long and maybe use Crowder/Shakir in place of McKenzie.  Bills ran this 71% of plays last year.  With new OL and better run blocking does this formation see less use ?

12 : 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR: Moss, Knox, Sweeney/Morris, Diggs Davis.  Used this on 8% of plays last year. This was   primarily used in red zone and short yardage with an OL as the TE in short yardage packages.

21 : 2RB, 1TE, 2WR:  Gilliam, Singletary, Knox, Diggs, Davis.  The old pro set with Gilliam used as Fullback or H  Back.  Bills ran this on 10% of offensive plays last year.  Will they use Moss and Cook as an Alternative              pairing to force some LB coverage on Cook?  Would require dressing 3 RBs besides Jones and Gilliam. 

 

What effect will Dorsey and Kromer have on the offensive formations philosophy in 2022?

IIRC, the bills lead the league in % snaps from 11 personnel last year.  I don’t see that changing under Dorsey, and I highly doubt Kromer is going to be having much influence on this. 
 

From on offensive lineman’s standpoint, they are often unaware of what the personnel on the field is. It’s quite funny when you think about it. They operate in their own realm while the skills players operate in another. You can see it in the huddle, you can hear it called in the verbiage in the plays, and yet they are still so dependent on one another even without this knowledge.

 

I think another interesting question to pose is the percentage or total raw snaps we’ll see for all of these skills players.

 

idk where to find this data, but it might be interesting if someone were able to find the % of snaps guys played last year over the course of the year (given they were healthy).

 

you could then look at what percentage of snaps do the bills need to replace from the previous year. For example, Beasley played X amount of snaps…so is that going to absorbed into McKenzie’s role, distributed amongst newcomers or what? 
 

[GunnerBill]

It depends on the oline. When in the empty stadium year their oline played well in 2020 the Bills ran the most 4 and 5 wide in the NFL. Week 1 last year that trend continued.... but the oline was a mess and so they had to all but abandon that to help with protection. They have always been an 11 personnel base and I expect that to continue but I like 10 personnel the best as a change up based on the final roster. The question is can the oline hold up in that look?

 

21 personnel with Cook and Moss (even more so than Devin because Moss is a better protector and pass catcher) out there intruiges me too because as a defense how do you match up with that?