A brutally honest look at the Bills' playoff games

[BigDingus]

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.

Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

[Arm of Harm]

On 1/28/2021 at 7:37 AM, All_Pro_Bills said:

A couple comments on coaching and Edmunds:

 

Defensive Coaching: All defenses schemes have an objective of forcing the offense into making mistakes.  Its a matter of how much pressure or emphasis they have on forcing these errors.  Ir might be something like missing a blocking assignment or the QB throwing the ball into some disguised coverage or maybe forcing a lot of turnovers.  Another element is defensive players making positive plays, winning their one-on-one battles, outplaying their opponent.  The problem with the soft zone scheme is that its almost totally dependent on the offense making mistakes rather than your defensive guys making a play.  The idea is I'm going to make you effectively execute 10 to 12 plays in a row without making a mistake and I'm betting you can't do that combined with a low-risk defensive approach that avoids making the big mistakes on defense.  Sort of like a low risk, low reward scenario.

The problem is no soft zone strategy is going to ever beat an elite offensive executed effectively.  That's what the Chiefs did.  The Bills defense as set up and with the defensive roster are not capable of playing an aggressive pressure defense.  If you want to get more aggressive your going to have to change not only the scheme but also the players.  That takes time so I don't expect much to happen here in the short term except trying to plug in some players the coaching staff and front office think are upgrades.  But the improvements, if any, will be incremental and not some extreme improvement into next season.  My assessment is the Bills are not going to consistently win against a team like the Chiefs that has great talent and great execution unless they alter their base defensive strategy along with targeting players with a different set of skills to match a more aggressive style.  At this point its a case of sitting back and letting them pick you apart.  Swapping out one or two players on defense isn't going to change that outcome unless the Bills offense upgrades to the point of matching KC point for point and makes it something like a last team to have the ball wins situation.

 

Edmunds:   This is a tough one.  One problem is the Bills use nickel most of the time as their base defense, 4-2-5.  So really there is no MLB in a classic sense under a 4-3-4.  I agree with other posters that Edmunds might be a better fit under a 3-4 system.  But the Bills aren't going to change their entire defense to accommodate one player.  So either Edmunds adapts and becomes proficient at playing in this system or he doesn't.  In 3 years he has had his struggles.  One other possibility I haven't seen discussed here is to trade him to a needy 3-4 team.  Maybe get back a 2nd rounder and use that draft choice elsewhere or to draft a MLB that might be a better fit.  I propose this because for some reason the league values his play more than most here as evidenced by his selection to the Pro Bowl.  His trade value at this time would seem high.  Better to move a player a year early than a year to late when his stock might be a lot lower.  The risk is that its highly likely you have to watch him excel in that 3-4 with his new team and you'll look like an idiot for the next 5 to 8 years.  The other approach is to give him another year and hope the light goes on.  To me that seems unlikely to happen.  Maybe the coaching staff needs to use more 4-3 and drop the emphasis on the 4-2-5 nickel which has its own issues.  The other thing is what to do with Milano.  He's important to the Bills defense but I'm hard pressed to consider him a top LB relative to the other players in the league.  Is he even in the top 5 of players at his position?  I don't know.  But the issue is paying a lot vs. finding a comparable replacement in the short term.  The other possibility here is to use the one year franchise tag and give yourself another year to decide what to do longer term.  

 

Great post. A few thoughts:

 

In the playoffs, the Bills defense got eaten alive by Rivers and Mahomes. They did a great job against the Ravens though. Perhaps that's because unlike those other two teams, the Ravens aren't designed to pick you apart with short, underneath passes? Whatever the reason might be, during the 2020 regular season the Bills defense allowed more pass completions to TEs than any other defense in the league. That is clear and compelling evidence the Bills defense was getting eaten by the underneath stuff.

 

That's either a scheme problem or a player problem. Rivers and Mahomes very often got the ball out quickly. If the QB gets rid of the ball in a hurry, the defensive line obviously cannot be blamed for the outcome of the play. Nor is the defensive line the primary culprit for the insanely high (130+) passer rating QBs achieved when targeting Edmunds during the regular season. Were there times when Edmunds got picked on after the QB got away with holding onto the ball a long time? Absolutely. But, you don't surrender a near-perfect passer rating to opposing QBs unless you're giving them the underneath stuff pretty much all the time, even on plays when the QB gets the ball out quickly. Even if the Bills upgraded their DL to become one of the best in the league, that would not fix the defense's tendency to give up the underneath stuff.

 

Edmunds' surrendering a near-perfect passer rating to opposing QBs is either an Edmunds problem or a scheme problem. Edmunds definitely has the physical tools to be good in coverage, but does he have the information processing ability to not get fooled? Does the scheme he's in give him the best opportunity to make plays and shut down opposing receiving targets? If this scheme is asking him to make too many decisions, and making it easier for him to be fooled by opposing offensive coordinators, would a different defensive scheme help him avoid getting fooled so that he could get maximum benefit from his great athletic ability? 

 

There's a reason why I focused more on the defensive scheme and on Edmunds in this post than I did on the defensive line. Is it accurate to say that the defensive line needs another pass rusher, and also needs a 1 tech DT? Yes. But piling all the blame for the defense at the doorstep of the defensive line would be cheap, easy, and at the end of the day wrong. The obviousness of the defensive line's problems shouldn't distract us from the fact that this defense has other, even more serious problems, starting with the defensive scheme.

[BuffaLoko]

On 1/27/2021 at 5:30 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I agree with most of your observations, but not sure I like your solutions all that much!

 

#1 Defensive Coaching.  I agree with the bend but don't break concept is what they are playing allowing them to move the chains.  But they've played the same the past two seasons with much better success.  This year though they were bending much more and even breaking more frequently was the issue.  So think the concept might still be fine, but need better players to reduce the frequency of successful drives by the opponent.

 

#2 Defensive Line is a big issue, but drafting a pass rusher may help the defense in maybe 2023, but not next season.  This team is poised next year to make a deep run as IMO next years schedule is more forgiving so this is their chance.  For that reason would rather they sign an actual star FA edge rusher.  I'm fine with getting rid of Butler and Addison to pay this new guy with.  Think I would keep Jefferson though as can play multiple positions and is still only 26 I believe.  The Bills have used a fair amount of draft resources on the Dline as they've drafted; Oliver, Johnson, Epinosa, and Phillips, plus as stated Jefferson is only 26 so it's not like they've ignored this position.

 

The Bills philosophy is we're going to wear you down with our depth and keep rotating solid, but not great players out there.  In 2018 and 2019 it worked, this year not nearly as well.

 

#3 and #4  Agree with waiting a year on Edmunds and drafting an O-lineman pretty high, 2nd round sounds good.  A lot there will also depend on what happens between Morse, Feliciano, and Williams IMO likely only two of the three will be back, which two not certain.  Of the three would prefer Morse being the odd man out.

 

#5  Running Back I don't think Christian Wade is the answer as big of a mess as the running game was this year.  I think I'd go with Williams ahead of him, but from a fan perspective wouldn't want to count on either being the solution for next season.  Obviously the coaches have seen much more of those two, and maybe they think one of them is ready, or they feel the biggest issue was run blocking.  Would make me nervous if Wade or even Williams is their best answer.

 

#6 Tight End is like drafting an edge rusher.  You could draft a TE who in 4 years will be better than Kerce and Gronk combined, but counting on him as a rookie to look better than Knox is a stretch. TE is one of the harder positions to learn.  For those reasons would give Knox another year, though is likely they will want/need at least a #2 TE to replace Kroft, unless they feel Sweeney is ready for that role.  But that's risky with the heart condition he had as could just as easily be medically retired.

I know you stated this as your opinion only, but have you seen the 2021 schedule? the one I saw in OneBillsLive, in an interview with G. Cosell (spell), done by Tasker and Brown, seemed pretty steep in terms of SOS, to me... I will look for it in a post from a few days ago, and see other source. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by BuffaLoko
Wrong name in source...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

48 minutes ago, BuffaLoko said:

I know you stated this as your opinion only, but have you seen the 2021 schedule? the one I saw in OneBillsLive, in an interview with Gumble by Tasker and Brown, seemed pretty steep in terms of SOS, to me... I will look for it in a post from a few days ago, and see other source. 

 

So now you're really going to think I'm crazy, admittedly I was thinking about this over a month ago, at that point, didn't think Tampa would make it to the SB. 

 

Having said all that, for a couple months I've felt that 2021 would be the Bills best shot at winning the SB as their schedule is the easiest.  They play the NFC south and AFC south.  Throw in Pitt and KC too.  Yes they play at KC and at Tampa, but really feel one of these years Brady's age is going to catch up with him, it somewhat already has as he's really not the reason physically they are in the SB, it's more the defense.  While it certainly didn't happen this year with KC, typically there's always a SB hangover to deal with also.  I worry about Miami in particular if they get Watson. 

 

But other than Tampa, the rest of the NFC south doesn't worry me too much, same with AFC south, Tenn and maybe Indy if they solve the QB spot could be tough, but both have some questions  Not all that worried about Pitt and Grandpa Ben. 

 

So lets assume they lose to Tampa and KC, add all that up could see them going 12-4 to 13-3 again.  If they can't the last thing I want to blame it on is the schedule.

 

So yes I have seen the schedule and that's the part that I'm excited about!

[BuffaLoko]

7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So now you're really going to think I'm crazy, admittedly I was thinking about this over a month ago, at that point, didn't think Tampa would make it to the SB. 

 

Having said all that, for a couple months I've felt that 2021 would be the Bills best shot at winning the SB as their schedule is the easiest.  They play the NFC south and AFC south.  Throw in Pitt and KC too.  Yes they play at KC and at Tampa, but really feel one of these years Brady's age is going to catch up with him, it somewhat already has as he's really not the reason physically they are in the SB, it's more the defense.  While it certainly didn't happen this year with KC, typically there's always a SB hangover to deal with also.  I worry about Miami in particular if they get Watson. 

 

But other than Tampa, the rest of the NFC south doesn't worry me too much, same with AFC south, Tenn and maybe Indy if they solve the QB spot could be tough, but both have some questions  Not all that worried about Pitt and Grandpa Ben. 

 

So lets assume they lose to Tampa and KC, add all that up could see them going 12-4 to 13-3 again.  If they can't the last thing I want to blame it on is the schedule.

 

So yes I have seen the schedule and that's the part that I'm excited about!

hahaha...Everything happened because I replied in a very late mode, but I definitively agree with you, specially with your take thta your (as well as mine) point of view, is affected by timelines. The same than you (and maybe no one in TBD), saw TB12 in just another SB! 🙄, time a few moths ahead will maybe tell us, that i.e. if he loses this Sunday, he might hang the (All Star<9 experiment with TBY once and for all, or look his age. The intriguing idea for me, regarding our KCY match, is that it would very likely define who gets the bye in AFC... thanks for replying... 

Edited February 2, 2021 by BuffaLoko

[Arm of Harm]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.

Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

 

I personally have been disappointed in Cody Ford, and don't consider him a starting quality player. His run blocking is bad. Often loses his battle, thus spoiling the play.

 

In defense of your post, you could point out that during the playoffs not only did the OL fail to run block well, but more often than not it also failed to provide good pass protection. A very disappointing performance by the line. Might Ford have gotten dominated less completely in pass protection than the offensive linemen we actually played? Yeah, that's possible.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Arm of Harm

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, BigDingus said:

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.
Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

 

From what Beane said it sounded as though the Bills are "all in" on Cody Ford

 

When I've watched film of run plays where Cody Ford was in there at guard this season, it wasn't pretty.  Now maybe he was hurt, but all the injuries on report are lower body and this looked like a hand placement issue.

 

And evidently the Bills don't think he's the answer at RT, or they wouldn't have put Williams there and moved Ford over. 

 

23 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

 

Nothing would surprise me, but....