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matter2003

Interesting Defensive Info regarding Bills/comparison to last year

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Looking at Team Advanced Defense on Pro Football Reference and the Bills have some interesting and some surprising numbers:

 

The Bills D faces the 2nd shortest average passes in the NFL with an average Depth of Target of only 6.8 yards. Only the Panthers 6.7 yards is lower. It appears teams are focusing on a lot of shorter passes against us.

 

Surprisingly the Bills are 7th in the NFL at blitz percentage at 35.3%.  The only teams higher are Pittsburgh(46.1), Baltimore(44.3), TB(42.5), Arizona(38.6), Miami(38.4) and KC(37.5). In comparison the Colts and Chargers blitz the least at only 13.8%.

 

However, the Bills don't seem to be very effective at it,  since we are dead last in hurry percentage at 5.9%. In comparison Pittsburgh is best at 16.0% and then New England at 14.5%.

 

Bills do knock the QB down pretty frequently tho, which makes me wonder how they are so low in hurry percentage.  Their 9.4% ties them for 9th best in the NFL. Again, Pittsburgh leads in this category at 12.4%.  

 

Not surprisingly, the Bills play relatively low amounts of press coverage at only 20.4%, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. Pittsburgh by far is tops at 37.6% followed by the Ravens at 29.2% and then KC at 28.4%.

 

Bills are middle of the road in missed tackles in the NFL, ranking tied for 15th with 48.  Jets lead by a wide margin with 76 missed tackles.

 

In comparison to last year, the numbers are actually a little bit surprising in some areas.

 

Average depth of target last year was 7.1, which ranked the Bills 3rd lowest in the NFL.

Bills gave up the 5th least Yards after the Catch last year but are middle of the pack this year at 16th...although the differences in average are negligible.  

Last year the average was 4.46 YAC/Rec and this year is 4.62 YAC/Rec.

 

Bills blitzed 31.1% of plays last year which was 12th in the league(surprisingly LESS than they are this year), had a hurry percentage of 9.4% which was 14th in the league and hit the QB on 7.4% of dropbacks, which was 18th in the league. They also played press coverage slightly more last year at 23.3% which was 17th in the NFL.

 

Most surprising is the Bills had the 3rd most missed tackles of any team in the NFL last year with 132. Only Arizona(135) and Cleveland(140) had more. Good to see they are much improved in that compared to the rest of the league at least. Fewest last year were the Patriots with only 66, and they are 2nd best this year with only 25. Only the Colts with 24 are better.

 

Strange to see how they have a higher percentage of QB knockdowns this year but far less hurries as a percentage. I am assuming this means they arrive a step too late and get a hit but the QB delivers the ball cleanly before they can get make him deliver it sooner than he wants?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by matter2003
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8 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Looking at Team Advanced Defense on Pro Football Reference and the Bills have some interesting and some surprising numbers:

 

The Bills D faces the 2nd shortest average passes in the NFL with an average Depth of Target of only 6.8 yards. Only the Panthers 6.7 yards is lower. It appears teams are focusing on a lot of shorter passes against us.

 

Surprisingly the Bills are 7th in the NFL at blitz percentage at 35.3%.  The only teams higher are Pittsburgh(46.1), Baltimore(44.3), TB(42.5), Arizona(38.6), Miami(38.4) and KC(37.5). In comparison the Colts and Chargers blitz the least at only 13.8%.

 

However, the Bills don't seem to be very effective at it,  since we are dead last in hurry percentage at 5.9%. In comparison Pittsburgh is best at 16.0% and then New England at 14.5%.

 

Bills do knock the QB down pretty frequently tho, which makes me wonder how they are so low in hurry percentage.  Their 9.4% ties them for 9th best in the NFL. Again, Pittsburgh leads in this category at 12.4%.  

 

Not surprisingly, the Bills play relatively low amounts of press coverage at only 20.4%, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. Pittsburgh by far is tops at 37.6% followed by the Ravens at 29.2% and then KC at 28.4%.

 

Bills are middle of the road in missed tackles in the NFL, ranking tied for 15th with 48.  Jets lead by a wide margin with 76 missed tackles.

 

In comparison to last year, the numbers are actually a little bit surprising in some areas.

 

Average depth of target last year was 7.1, which ranked the Bills 3rd lowest in the NFL.

Bills gave up the 5th least Yards after the Catch last year but are middle of the pack this year at 16th...although the differences in average are negligible.  

Last year the average was 4.46 YAC/Rec and this year is 4.62 YAC/Rec.

 

Bills blitzed 31.1% of plays last year which was 12th in the league(surprisingly LESS than they are this year), had a hurry percentage of 9.4% which was 14th in the league and hit the QB on 7.4% of dropbacks, which was 18th in the league. They also played press coverage slightly more last year at 23.3% which was 17th in the NFL.

 

Most surprising is the Bills had the 3rd most missed tackles of any team in the NFL last year with 132. Only Arizona(135) and Cleveland(140) had more. Good to see they are much improved in that compared to the rest of the league at least. Fewest last year were the Patriots with only 66, and they are 2nd best this year with only 25. Only the Colts with 24 are better.

 

Strange to see how they have a higher percentage of QB knockdowns this year but far less hurries as a percentage. I am assuming this means they arrive a step too late and get a hit but the QB delivers the ball cleanly before they can get make him deliver it sooner than he wants?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They know our LBs are banged up and if they don't get rid of it quick our DL is gonna drop em in spite of the holding.  I think if we had a little more strength we may drop em anyway.

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Can't stop the run sets up play action and short down and distance. The lack of hurries seems consistent with what we see. The win rate by the pass rushers may be high but it is not effectively making a difference on the QB.

McD and Frazier are willing to sit back in their zone coverages and let them dink and dunk down the field hoping for a mistake penalty. Honestly its hard to argue against that, when that is what KC, Jets, and Tenn did to slow Buffalo offense.

There are a few ways to turn the tide. Get better stopping the run to force longer distances on 2nd and 3rd down. Start playing more press coverage. Bills have the secondary to do it. Take even more chances with the blitz. Again they have the secondary to hold up on the back end. 

Edited by Ethan in Portland

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4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Can't stop the run sets up play action and short down and distance. The lack of hurries seems consistent with what we see. The win rate by the pass rushers may be high but it is not effectively making a difference on the QB.

McD and Frazier are willing to sit back in their zone coverages and let them dink and dunk down the field hoping for a mistake penalty. Honestly its hard to argue against that, when that is what KC, Jets, and Tenn did to slow Buffalo offense.

There are a few ways to turn the tide. Get better stopping the run to force longer distances on 2nd and 3rd down. Start playing more press coverage. Bills have the secondary to do it. Take even more chances with the blitz. Again they have the secondary to hold up on the back end. 

 

It looks like teams are trying to get the ball out quickly against us by throwing it short(hence the very low depth of target average) which nullifies our pass rush.  

 

I am surprised to see the Bills are actually one of the more blitzing teams in the league, but I have a hunch the numbers might be inflated because there were times they seemed to be blitzing almost every play against the Jets and Raiders whereas they didn't seem to be bringing any pressure against the Chiefs or Titans.  

 

 

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22 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Looking at Team Advanced Defense on Pro Football Reference and the Bills have some interesting and some surprising numbers:

 

The Bills D faces the 2nd shortest average passes in the NFL with an average Depth of Target of only 6.8 yards. Only the Panthers 6.7 yards is lower. It appears teams are focusing on a lot of shorter passes against us.

 

Surprisingly the Bills are 7th in the NFL at blitz percentage at 35.3%.  The only teams higher are Pittsburgh(46.1), Baltimore(44.3), TB(42.5), Arizona(38.6), Miami(38.4) and KC(37.5). In comparison the Colts and Chargers blitz the least at only 13.8%.

 

However, the Bills don't seem to be very effective at it,  since we are dead last in hurry percentage at 5.9%. In comparison Pittsburgh is best at 16.0% and then New England at 14.5%.

 

Bills do knock the QB down pretty frequently tho, which makes me wonder how they are so low in hurry percentage.  Their 9.4% ties them for 9th best in the NFL. Again, Pittsburgh leads in this category at 12.4%.  

 

Not surprisingly, the Bills play relatively low amounts of press coverage at only 20.4%, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. Pittsburgh by far is tops at 37.6% followed by the Ravens at 29.2% and then KC at 28.4%.

 

Bills are middle of the road in missed tackles in the NFL, ranking tied for 15th with 48.  Jets lead by a wide margin with 76 missed tackles.

 

In comparison to last year, the numbers are actually a little bit surprising in some areas.

 

Average depth of target last year was 7.1, which ranked the Bills 3rd lowest in the NFL.

Bills gave up the 5th least Yards after the Catch last year but are middle of the pack this year at 16th...although the differences in average are negligible.  

Last year the average was 4.46 YAC/Rec and this year is 4.62 YAC/Rec.

 

Bills blitzed 31.1% of plays last year which was 12th in the league(surprisingly LESS than they are this year), had a hurry percentage of 9.4% which was 14th in the league and hit the QB on 7.4% of dropbacks, which was 18th in the league. They also played press coverage slightly more last year at 23.3% which was 17th in the NFL.

 

Most surprising is the Bills had the 3rd most missed tackles of any team in the NFL last year with 132. Only Arizona(135) and Cleveland(140) had more. Good to see they are much improved in that compared to the rest of the league at least. Fewest last year were the Patriots with only 66, and they are 2nd best this year with only 25. Only the Colts with 24 are better.

 

Strange to see how they have a higher percentage of QB knockdowns this year but far less hurries as a percentage. I am assuming this means they arrive a step too late and get a hit but the QB delivers the ball cleanly before they can get make him deliver it sooner than he wants?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The numbers so far suggest our pass rush isn’t bad... the balk is our quick and short to nullify the pass rush. 
 

We’re not doing anything different than we’ve done in the past 3 years under McDermott. Play zone, play off the ball, don’t give up big plays, force teams to throw short and rally to the ball in front of the sticks and make a team beat you with that all the way down the field. 
 

The numbers you laid out tell the story of the season if you factor in our runs defense. Run defense has been poor so we can’t do that. Missed tackles I would guess are from stopping the run. 
 

If you noticed the Jets couldn’t run the ball in the 2nd half and all of a sudden our pass defense looked like it has in year passed. Keep everything short, in front of the stick and rally to the ball. Hopefully they’re turning a corner as a unit. The philosophy works... it’s just execution. 

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21 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Can't stop the run sets up play action and short down and distance. The lack of hurries seems consistent with what we see. The win rate by the pass rushers may be high but it is not effectively making a difference on the QB.

McD and Frazier are willing to sit back in their zone coverages and let them dink and dunk down the field hoping for a mistake penalty. Honestly its hard to argue against that, when that is what KC, Jets, and Tenn did to slow Buffalo offense.

There are a few ways to turn the tide. Get better stopping the run to force longer distances on 2nd and 3rd down. Start playing more press coverage. Bills have the secondary to do it. Take even more chances with the blitz. Again they have the secondary to hold up on the back end. 

Teams with high end slot receivers and TE's always give the Bills the most problem in the passing game as they can take advantage of what McD's defense gives them.

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11 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Can't stop the run sets up play action and short down and distance. The lack of hurries seems consistent with what we see. The win rate by the pass rushers may be high but it is not effectively making a difference on the QB.

McD and Frazier are willing to sit back in their zone coverages and let them dink and dunk down the field hoping for a mistake penalty. Honestly its hard to argue against that, when that is what KC, Jets, and Tenn did to slow Buffalo offense.

There are a few ways to turn the tide. Get better stopping the run to force longer distances on 2nd and 3rd down. Start playing more press coverage. Bills have the secondary to do it. Take even more chances with the blitz. Again they have the secondary to hold up on the back end. 


I would’ve agreed with this last season.  This season, not so much.  Taron Johnson is getting destroyed this season.  Levi player one good game.  Norman hasn’t had any good games, cam Lewis, meh. Hopefully Dane can step up and be the guy opposite tre?  Marlowe has been bad.  Hyde looks to be regressing a slight bit.  I trust Poyer and Tre will do their jobs.  
 

I think we have 1 very good corner and the rest are scrap heap players by the way they’ve played this year.  We blitzed the Miami all game.  All game, we got beat.  LBs, corners, safeties all got roasted by Fitz.  The jets OL, terrible playmakers and no so amazing QB allowed us to bring a lot of heat without having to worry about getting roasted.  
 

I agree with your post.  I just don’t think that we have the secondary to pull it off consistently.  We’ll probably give up some big plays.  That said, blitzing should be an integral piece in our D game-plan and can be instrumental in getting the D off the field. Its up to the coaching staff to dial it up at the right time.  Especially the next 3 weeks, Cam , RW and Kyler.  The cardinals really threw RW off his game in the 4th quarter with their blitzing.

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2 hours ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Teams with high end slot receivers and TE's always give the Bills the most problem in the passing game as they can take advantage of what McD's defense gives them.

Agreed. Im not really criticizing the concept. It can work. If they could draw one or two more holding penalties and get better at stopping third and long it will work. You can't drop 7 or 8 on every third and long. That tactic works a lot of the time but sending multiple rushers on third and long can work too.

2 hours ago, NewEra said:


I would’ve agreed with this last season.  This season, not so much.  Taron Johnson is getting destroyed this season.  Levi player one good game.  Norman hasn’t had any good games, cam Lewis, meh. Hopefully Dane can step up and be the guy opposite tre?  Marlowe has been bad.  Hyde looks to be regressing a slight bit.  I trust Poyer and Tre will do their jobs.  
 

I think we have 1 very good corner and the rest are scrap heap players by the way they’ve played this year.  We blitzed the Miami all game.  All game, we got beat.  LBs, corners, safeties all got roasted by Fitz.  The jets OL, terrible playmakers and no so amazing QB allowed us to bring a lot of heat without having to worry about getting roasted.  
 

I agree with your post.  I just don’t think that we have the secondary to pull it off consistently.  We’ll probably give up some big plays.  That said, blitzing should be an integral piece in our D game-plan and can be instrumental in getting the D off the field. Its up to the coaching staff to dial it up at the right time.  Especially the next 3 weeks, Cam , RW and Kyler.  The cardinals really threw RW off his game in the 4th quarter with their blitzing.

Unclear why but Taron has really regressed. They have a great corner and two solid safeties. Once Levi and Norman are both healthy they can cover most teams. Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Seattle will be a handful with multiple good to great recieving targets. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Teams with high end slot receivers and TE's always give the Bills the most problem in the passing game as they can take advantage of what McD's defense gives them.

There is no franchise that has a worst differential than the Bills at TE. The TE position has never been great in Buffalo and the Bills have made even average TEs look like stars for decades no matter the coaching staff. It is rather incredible. Zero TE probowls in Bills history.

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24 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agreed. Im not really criticizing the concept. It can work. If they could draw one or two more holding penalties and get better at stopping third and long it will work. You can't drop 7 or 8 on every third and long. That tactic works a lot of the time but sending multiple rushers on third and long can work too.

Unclear why but Taron has really regressed. They have a great corner and two solid safeties. Once Levi and Norman are both healthy they can cover most teams. Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Seattle will be a handful with multiple good to great recieving targets. 

Yeah, Taron is confusing.  After his rookie year, I thought we struck gold and he’d be one of the best slot corners in the league.  It’s almost as if he’s gotten worse each year.  I’m a fan of the kid and I hope he can turn it around, but if he doesn’t, we should look to trade him and replace him.  Slot corner is such an important position, especially for our D.  We can’t afford to have a guy playing the slot that gets beat on almost every 3rd down 

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i think all d's started out weak w no camp, and the bills scheme was perhaps worse and fell off more.

 

then, edmunds got hurt and stayed hurt, milano was out and missing games, and our cb situation was a mess, white isn't right and we've had norman just stinking for nearly a month.

 

a power running w mobile qb new england in bad weather is a perfect test for the d to get back on track

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36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, Taron is confusing.  After his rookie year, I thought we struck gold and he’d be one of the best slot corners in the league.  It’s almost as if he’s gotten worse each year.  I’m a fan of the kid and I hope he can turn it around, but if he doesn’t, we should look to trade him and replace him.  Slot corner is such an important position, especially for our D.  We can’t afford to have a guy playing the slot that gets beat on almost every 3rd down 


I get the feeling that Taron has definite strengths -- willingness and ability in run support being chief among them.

Once tape was out on him after his rookie year, though, he never returned to his high level of play. I DO wonder how much the lack of two healthy, high functioning linebackers this year as hurt him.

I believe the Bills want to see if Cam Lewis can be Taron's long term replacement. Either way, I expect the cornerback position to be heavily addressed in the offseason. In fact, I suspect the entire defense will be the focus of the draft and free agency. Need youth and juice on the edges, cornerback reinforcements, linebacker depth, possibly a new 1-technique, and to start thinking about the future at safety. So, basically...a lot of work to do on defense.

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1 hour ago, Logic said:


I get the feeling that Taron has definite strengths -- willingness and ability in run support being chief among them.

Once tape was out on him after his rookie year, though, he never returned to his high level of play. I DO wonder how much the lack of two healthy, high functioning linebackers this year as hurt him.

I believe the Bills want to see if Cam Lewis can be Taron's long term replacement. Either way, I expect the cornerback position to be heavily addressed in the offseason. In fact, I suspect the entire defense will be the focus of the draft and free agency. Need youth and juice on the edges, cornerback reinforcements, linebacker depth, possibly a new 1-technique, and to start thinking about the future at safety. So, basically...a lot of work to do on defense.

Absolutely. Aside from, hopefully, a TE and some OL that can run block and maybe an injection of speed at RB, we should be all defense this offseason.  

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