2020 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Morning all.... well that was different. I have to say kudos to the NFL and to ESPN and the NFL Network because for the most part they pulled it off. Not saying the ESPN coverage was great (it was mixed) but they made draft night feel like, well, draft night. In these uncertain times for humanity to just ignore everything else for 4 hours and think about trivial nonsense like "who is the 3rd best corner in this draft class?" was a pleasure. Well done to Commissioner Goodell for deciding to go ahead, well done for performing a mid round costume change, and well done for completely messing up his big announcement about the draft returning to Vegas in 2022. Well done to the teams and the prospects for still conveying some of the excitement without the (at times) unnecessary glitz and silliness of normal draft nights. It wasn't perfect but man.... was good to feel the world is normal again for a few hours. Hope you all enjoyed as much as I did.

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick Outlook

I hope when Brandon Beane traded that first rounder away for my man Stefon Diggs he realised he was interfering with my annual Draft Debrief post? I should get a veto on any such activity in the future! Not that I would have vetoed trading for Stef. I think Beane was proven right too. The three guys who I think have a legitimate chance to come in and tear it up early were off the board before the Bills would have got a chance to snag them for the price Beane paid for Diggs. A fourth receiver had actually gone off the board too in Jalen Reagor which kind of proves the point that the Bills were looking at the second tier at #22. The Vikings took Justin Jefferson there. Look I am going to make my point on Justin Jefferson one last time and then I promise I will shut up about it but I am starting to feel like I dislike the kid and I really don't. Justin Jefferson is a good player. He is a modern day "big slot" and he can run the full slot receiver route tree. He isn't a guy who you can only ask to run slants, shallow crossers and rub routes. He does do more from that position. He can be productive and be productive from day 1 in the NFL. But he is only a slot receiver. Over 90% of his snaps in his breakout 2019 season were from that spot and his 2018 tape lining up on the outside? It is day 3 material. Therefore, I just have to ask myself.... even if you get a consistent output of 850 yards and 5 touchdowns a year from him.... is a slot receiver with that production worth a first round pick? And my answer is "yes, so long as you are not asking him to be the feature guy in your offense." For the Bills that is what they were looking for - a number 1, a feature guy - Jefferson was never a fit. I believe that is why Philly passed on him in favour of Reagor. They allegedly are looking to move on from Alshon Jeffrey, DJax is about 60 and they need someone who can, in short order, be the guy. As a complimentary piece in an offense that features a number 1 like Adam Thielen? Yes, I can see that fit. Jefferson can be "a guy" and doesn't have to be "the guy". Conclusion: the trade for Diggs was the right call.

 

In terms of the Bills outlook on day 2.... I think the run on corners was interesting but not unexpected. I thought it might come early day 2 but there were a lot of teams at the end of day 1 clearly fearing an early day 2 run on corners who decided they had to get up. That leaves the ice very thin at corner in terms of the Bills pick at #54. The only guys I have as representing anything like value at that spot are Kristian Fulton, Jaylon Johnson, Trevon Diggs and Bryce Hall. All of whom I expect to be gone. Some have Cam Dantzler in that territory too and while I am a bit lower on him I could see that. The chances are that all five will be gone by #54 I think and the Bills will have missed the boat at corner. Safety is still very much in play, running back might be touch and go, receiver is possible value wise and edge is definitely a possibility.

 

My Mock

Reasonable night in pure numbers but I nailed the easy bits and missed after that.

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. That is up on 2019 when I only managed 21 but about par for me overall (24 in 2018; 26 in 2017 and 23 in 2016);

- 4 exact matches - I matched four of the first five players (the easy bit) but no exact matches after that sadly. Receivers, tackles and corners coming off the way they did threw me. There were a couple of matches I have mocked at different points (Reagor to the Eagles was in my v1.0, as was Brown to the Panthers and Wilson to the Titans was a second round match in the two rounder I did for version 2.0)

- 7 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - stacking the OTs the wrong way around the main contributor to this. Think everyone tackle needy teams were the Giants, the Jets, the Browns and the Dolphins so again, the easier bit.

 

Player I was high on....

I am surprised that Xavier McKinney is still on the board. I get it safeties are rarely value in the 1st round but he is a top 15 player in this class that is not stacked with guys. I think what the first round did show was what has been said a lot... after the first 15 or 16 guys in this class (although I definitely have McKinney in that group) there is not much consensus on who is the 20th best player and who is the 60th best player. I was also high on Kristian Fulton, which I knew, but I am surprised just how many corners have gone ahead of him. Likewise for Jaylon Johnson. I remain absolutely convinced that they will be better NFL players than a handful of the corners taken off the board last night. What was interesting was it did seem to me like teams were reaching down the board at corner for guys with experience of playing some press man. Jeff Gladney is one I predicted on that basis because he is a better man player than he is in zone, but AJ Terrell has experience of playing man, just not very well. Likewise the Auburn kid (not spelling his name out again) that Miami took is a high ceiling, physical man corner but he is extremely raw and I wouldn't be surprised if he is a flag machine early in his NFL career.

 

Player I was down on....

Conversely I knew I was low on CJ Henderson, albeit I am still shocked he went in the top 10.  I just think while the traits are all there mentally he has some way to go. That feels like a swing for the fences pick to me for the Jaguars but a lot of other evaluators will just say that represented solid value. AJ Epenesa and Yetur Gross-Matos are two guys who started the process in January being seeing as sure fire first round picks and I was always sceptical. I thought there was a scheme fit for Epenesa right at the end of the round in Seattle (more on them to come) but otherwise I always felt he was likely a 2nd rounder and Gross-Matos is the sort of guy I can see the Patriots liking with their early day 2 pick but again that is the right sort of value to my mind. The EDGE class was a generational player in Young, a high ceiling projection in Chaisson and then a lot of guys who were solid starters but not difference makers to me. I think last night rather confirmed that was the league's view as well. Two edge guys and six corners tells its own story.

 

Biggest shock of the night

This one is easy. Not a shock to me that a team who want to sit Jordan Love rather than start him right away was his destination. I had mocked him to the Saints and the Colts in my various versions of the mock for exactly that reason. But it was a shock that it was Green Bay. That said as soon as I saw the trade up I said in the draft thread "this could be Jordan Love." Eli Manning's career came to an end last year with a certain element of symmetry to it. Aaron Rodgers now might be in the same place. The clock on his Packers career has been started. I think he probably has two years which would make him 38.... if he wants to keep playing at that point it will have to be in another uniform.... maybe he will get to be a 49er after all?

 

Worst pick

There are two teams who have GMs who I am starting to think are just trolling me in the first round of the NFL Draft. The first is the Atlanta Falcons. Last year they had me reaching down my board to my 2nd/3rd round borderline category for Chris Lindstrom who they took in the top 15. This year they had me going back to that particular well for AJ Terrell. And yet not to be outdone the first round oddball that is John Schneider won the price for picking "the lowest ranked player on Gunner's board to go in round 1" for the second year in a row. I thought I liked Jordyn Brooks when I watched him. I had a 3rd/4th borderline on him. Modern linebacker, fast and instinctive, can cover.... not really sure if he is an inside or an outside guy, doesn't have the traditional linebacker strength, gets lost a bit in the run game, can't disengage and is a reactor rather than an anticipator. Nice fit for a guy who wants him to play at Sam then shuffle inside in sub packages. Seems there was a consensus out there that he was a high pick that I was blissfully unaware of. Oh well. I am not saying I was right and Peter Carroll and John Schneider were wrong.... but early returns on last year's winner of this award LJ Collier (who barely got on the field as a rookie) would tend to be in my favour and go and look back through Seattle's first round picks. At least Atlanta can point to the fact that Chris Lindstrom had a decent rookie year. The last 1st rounder you could even argue that Seattle hit on was Bruce Irvin in 2012. They have had a couple of years without a first rounder in there since but the only time since that they could be argued to have hit with their first pick in a draft was 2015 with Frank Clark. They have drafted well in the 2nd round as a rule - Clark, Britt, Reed, Metcalf and have been pretty good in later rounds. But in terms of earning the benefit of the doubt on Brooks? Nope.

 

What's left?

Okay so going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

2. Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

3. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

4. Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah

5. Zach Baun*, LB, Wisconsin - inconclusive drugs sample at combine

6. Tyler Biadasz*, C, Wisconsin - injury flag

7. Marlon Davidson, DT, Auburn

8. AJ Epenesa, DE, Iowa

9. Grant Delpit, S, LSU

10. Josh Jones, OT, Houston

 

 

Final thought - I don't expect the Bills to trade. Think they will pick at #54. Enjoy day 2 folks!

Edited April 24, 2020 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Who's your next 5 BPA Gunner? 

 

11-20 below:

 

11. Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah

12. D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

13. Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma

14. Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

15. Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

16. Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn St

17. Jonathan Greenard, DE, Florida

18. Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne

19. Troy Dye, LB, Oregon

20. Ashtyn Davis, S, California

[BuffaloHokie13]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My Mock

Reasonable night in pure numbers but I nailed the easy bits and missed after that.

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. That is up on 2019 when I only managed 21 but about par for me overall (24 in 2018; 26 in 2017 and 23 in 2016);

- 4 exact matches - I matched four of the first five players (the easy bit) but no exact matches after that sadly. Receivers, tackles and corners coming off the way they did threw me. There were a couple of matches I have mocked at different points (Reagor to the Eagles was in my v1.0, as was Brown to the Panthers and Wilson to the Titans was a second round match in the two rounder I did for version 2.0)

- 7 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - stacking the OTs the wrong way around the main contributor to this. Think everyone tackle needy teams were the Giants, the Jets, the Browns and the Dolphins so again, the easier bit

Very similar results here. 

- 25/32 1st rounders

- 5 exact matches (top 3, Wills, and Jeudy)

- 1 exact match, but wrong slot (Jefferson at 25, not 22)

- 11 right position, wrong player (Wirfs vs Thomas at 4, QB's flipped at 5&6, Thomas vs Becton at 11, Lamb vs Ruggs to Raiders, Ruggs vs Aiyuk to 49ers, Henderson vs Terrell to Falcons, Jones vs Jackson to Dolphins, Fulton vs Arnette to Raiders, Johnson vs Gladney to Vikings, and Jackson vs Wilson to the Titans)

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Great analysis!  Certainly better than what we will hear all day from the talking heads on TV.  Thanks, I appreciate your work on this.

[YoloinOhio]

Fulton would be a dream at 54

[CNYfan]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Fulton would be a dream at 54

A nightmare maybe.   No better than #39 Levi.

 

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Thank you.

 

Really don't want them to draft a Safety at #54. Give me Edge, RB, or WR. 

 

Take the very best player regardless of position.    Even OL, no one has mentioned Ezra.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

A nightmare maybe.   No better than #39 Levi.

 

 

Take the very best player regardless of position.    Even OL, no one has mentioned Ezra.

 

Disagree completely on Fulton and on any notion that Cleveland might be the BPA at #54.

[CNYfan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Disagree completely on Fulton and on any notion that Cleveland might be the BPA at #54.

 

I respect your opinion.   Fulton just never impressed me and I have never seen Cleveland play.  

 

You have a much deeper knowledge than I.

[BarleyNY]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Disagree completely on Fulton and on any notion that Cleveland might be the BPA at #54.

I don’t see Cleveland as a fit in any way, shape or form for Gap/Power schemes, so no bueno for the Bills.  If I were an OZ/IZ team needing a developmental OT I’d be interested.  He shouldn’t even be on the Bills’ board though. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

I don’t see Cleveland as a fit in any way, shape or form for Gap/Power schemes, so no bueno for the Bills.  If I were an OZ/IZ team needing a developmental OT I’d be interested.  He shouldn’t even be on the Bills’ board though. 

 

Agree with this also. Think it is likely he isn't. But regardless #54 would still be rich for my tastes. I expect he will go round 2 because tackles get pushed up the board but to me he is a round 3 talent. 

[somnus00]

Couldn't agree with you more on Kristian Fulton, and Jaylon Johnson. Love these 2 guys more than any of the other 1st round CBs except Okudah. I'm on board with one of these 2 guys if they're there at 54.

 

I think Edge rusher and CB2 are our biggest needs right now. I really don't want Gross-Matos. The only edge I like in this spot is Terrell Lewis.