BillsFan4 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Resources for Erie County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 ....death penalty works for me.......SMH......... Fake COVID-19 tests seized by US Customs and Border Patrol in Rochester Charles Molineaux-WHECUpdated: May 05, 2020 11:09 PM Created: May 05, 2020 10:43 PM ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents report they’ve been discovering hundreds of counterfeit tests for coronavirus being shipped through Greater Rochester International Airport, part of a broad unethical market seeking to exploit a frightened public. “They are not approved and they are attempted to be sold on the black market,” Aaron Bowker with the U.S Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) said. The CBP says its inspectors were looking over consignment shipments and found the kits. It did not specify where they had been shipped from, or their intended destinations but said the tests had not come from any of the labs approved to make COVID-19 tests. In Rochester, the CPB reports catching 600 of the counterfeit kits since March. Twenty-five of them were spotted in the latest seizure on Tuesday. https://www.whec.com/coronavirus/fake-covid-19-tests-seized-rochester/5721029/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ....death penalty works for me.......SMH......... Fake COVID-19 tests seized by US Customs and Border Patrol in Rochester Charles Molineaux-WHECUpdated: May 05, 2020 11:09 PM Created: May 05, 2020 10:43 PM ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents report they’ve been discovering hundreds of counterfeit tests for coronavirus being shipped through Greater Rochester International Airport, part of a broad unethical market seeking to exploit a frightened public. “They are not approved and they are attempted to be sold on the black market,” Aaron Bowker with the U.S Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) said. The CBP says its inspectors were looking over consignment shipments and found the kits. It did not specify where they had been shipped from, or their intended destinations but said the tests had not come from any of the labs approved to make COVID-19 tests. In Rochester, the CPB reports catching 600 of the counterfeit kits since March. Twenty-five of them were spotted in the latest seizure on Tuesday. https://www.whec.com/coronavirus/fake-covid-19-tests-seized-rochester/5721029/ This is truly gross ? I would hope they can find those responsible and throw the book at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is truly gross ? I would hope they can find those responsible and throw the book at them. Make them work in COVID-19 ward cleaning bed pans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 OK, I like the concept of having the criteria for re-opening laid out and a dashboard showing which areas meet what, but I'm totally confused about the hospitalization thing https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region WNY does not meet the criteria, I see that But how does Central NY region meet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartacus Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: OK, I like the concept of having the criteria for re-opening laid out and a dashboard showing which areas meet what, but I'm totally confused about the hospitalization thing https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region WNY does not meet the criteria, I see that But how does Central NY region meet? how many hospital beds in WNY with 200 COVID patients, looks to be ample capacity to deal with any surge seems "flatten the curve" was replaced with "find the cure" and the benchmarks reflect as much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin C Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, Justin C said: Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. From the link above: Quote Metric #1: Decline in Total Hospitalizations The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that reopening be dependent on a downward trajectory of hospitalizations and infections over a 14-day period. Before a phased re-opening begins, a region must experience a sustained decline in total net hospitalizations – the total number of people in the hospital each day, calculated on a three-day rolling average – over the course of a 14-day period. Alternatively, regions that have seen few COVID cases overall will satisfy this metric if the daily net increase in total hospitalizations (measured on a three-day rolling average) has never exceeded 15. Quote Metric #2: Decline in Deaths Before reopening, a region must experience a sustained decline in the three-day rolling average of daily hospital deaths over the course of a 14-day period. Alternatively, regions that have seen few COVID cases overall will satisfy this metric if the three-day rolling average of daily new hospital deaths has never exceeded 5. Quote Metric #3: New Hospitalizations In addition to monitoring the decline in disease trajectory, it’s important to monitor the absolute level of infection in each region. This is because it’s possible for a region that has seen a high level of infections – for example, New York City – to see a sustained decline in hospitalizations and deaths over a 14-day period, while still having an underlying infection rate that is too high to allow for a safe phased re-opening. A phased re-opening for each region will be conditioned on the occurrence of fewer than two new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (measured on a three-day rolling average). It’s on a 3 day rolling average. Pretty sure one day here and there can be higher than the last as long as there’s a downward trajectory of cases over a 14 day period. If you look at the hospitalization rate graph in that link, (if I’m reading it correctly) I don’t really see any 14 day period where you could draw a line that slopes down. Best I see is a 5 day decline from 4/20 to 4/25. Our ICU rates are going down, which is good to see. But hospitalizations look like they were actually on an upward trajectory from 5/8 to 5/13 before dropping for 1 day yesterday. https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard Looking at the metrics, we are getting closer on hitting #2 but we are not even close on #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 9 hours ago, spartacus said: how many hospital beds in WNY with 200 COVID patients, looks to be ample capacity to deal with any surge seems "flatten the curve" was replaced with "find the cure" and the benchmarks reflect as much I'm not sure how to take this - it seems a bit like whinging for the sake of it? The dashboard indicates that WNY is at 43% of hospital beds available, and 56% of ICU beds available. The threshold is 30% So the hospital bed capacity is not the issue. The question for WNY seems to be hospitalizations and deaths, as one metric for determining if infections are growing or shrinking - that does seem important My question had to do with how they are determining this because for another region it looked as though they didn't meet but were listed to reopen Frankly I envy NY because at least you are living in a region with some kind of defined and publically available metrics vs. "we're opening up,because... masks are a Personal Choice" One can debate the specifics of the metrics, but at least NYS has them 4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: It’s on a 3 day rolling average. Pretty sure one day here and there can be higher than the last as long as there’s a downward trajectory of cases over a 14 day period. If you look at the hospitalization rate graph in that link, (if I’m reading it correctly) I don’t really see any 14 day period where you could draw a line that slopes down. Best I see is a 5 day decline from 4/20 to 4/25. Our ICU rates are going down, which is good to see. But hospitalizations look like they were actually on an upward trajectory from 5/8 to 5/13 before dropping for 1 day yesterday. https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard Looking at the metrics, we are getting closer on hitting #2 but we are not even close on #1. Yeah but look at hospitalizations for Central region, which was announced as eligible? I grant they have fewer hospitalizations, but they appear to be trending UP I'm confused 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Justin C said: Yeah I mean if the hospitalizations fluctuate up 1 down 1 every day does that keep resetting the 14 day decline for hospitalizations needed to reopen? Or would it then switch to the daily hospitalizations being under 15 I believe? If its the former that is really dumb. It's a 3 day rolling average, to buttress against that daily fluctuation. So one up, one down should average out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm not sure how to take this - it seems a bit like whinging for the sake of it? The dashboard indicates that WNY is at 43% of hospital beds available, and 56% of ICU beds available. The threshold is 30% So the hospital bed capacity is not the issue. The question for WNY seems to be hospitalizations and deaths, as one metric for determining if infections are growing or shrinking - that does seem important My question had to do with how they are determining this because for another region it looked as though they didn't meet but were listed to reopen Frankly I envy NY because at least you are living in a region with some kind of defined and publically available metrics vs. "we're opening up,because... masks are a Personal Choice" One can debate the specifics of the metrics, but at least NYS has them Yeah but look at hospitalizations for Central region, which was announced as eligible? I grant they have fewer hospitalizations, but they appear to be trending UP I'm confused I’m not sure, but if I’m reading the charts right I think it’s because central NY falls under the 2nd threshold. You have to meet either or. For ex., in metric #1) Quote The second number represents the maximum daily net increase in total hospitalizations measured on a three day rolling average that the region has experienced; if this number is 15 or less the region automatically satisfies this metric. It looks like they’re at 6 new hospitalizations every 3 days (average), putting them well under the 15 case threshold. So even though they haven’t had 14 days of declining hospital cases, since they’re under 15 total cases every 3 days (average) they meet the criteria. Same with metric #2. It needs to be fewer than 5 deaths every 3 days and they’re at 3. (assuming I’m reading the charts right...lol) And yes, I’m happy with the way NY is handling reopening. They’re letting the experts lead and following the CDC guidelines, which is what every state should be doing IMO. I know some people get mad that we’re still closed but NYS is literally just following the federal plan for reopening. edit - @Hapless Bills Fan I just looked at the hospitalization rate chart for Central NY and I see what you mean. The rate is climbing quickly. If it continues they’ll be over that 15 case threshold soon and could have to shut down right after they open. Edited May 16, 2020 by BillsFan4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 We had a big drop in hospitalizations yesterday. From 204 to 189 https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region So I’m guessing we must be under the “15 new hospitalizations every 3 days” criteria? Seems a bit surprising, but I’m glad to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: We had a big drop in hospitalizations yesterday. From 204 to 189 https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region So I’m guessing we must be under the “15 new hospitalizations every 3 days” criteria? Seems a bit surprising, but I’m glad to hear it. Oh, man, I hope they’re not cooking the books by sending home some patients who should be hospitalized or discharging some patients to die in nursing homes vs hospitals. It just makes me a bit suspicious when the limit is 15, and a region for 2 days has precisely 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Oh, man, I hope they’re not cooking the books by sending home some patients who should be hospitalized or discharging some patients to die in nursing homes vs hospitals. It just makes me a bit suspicious when the limit is 15, and a region for 2 days has precisely 15. Where do you see the data that shows 15 new hospitalizations over the last 2 days? I can’t seem to find it. I don’t know if it’s not available on mobile/tablet? Or if I’m just missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Where do you see the data that shows 15 new hospitalizations over the last 2 days? I can’t seem to find it. I don’t know if it’s not available on mobile/tablet? Or if I’m just missing it. https://forward.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary-region Click "Western New York" Although now that I look again, it's a decrease of 15, I must not have had my morning coffee yet...yeah, that's my story, and I'm sticking to it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 56 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ....with all of the purported break throughs, scientific studies many of which are not peer reviewed, alleged testing mechanisms, probable treatments and or vaccines, how does the scientific community ferret out realism from junk?.....how many "discovering" companies are solely driven by a goal to inflate their stock price prematurely?....I'd say the scientific community is faced with an already yeoman's task in their extensive laboratory analyses only to be clouded by falsities of hope or promise.....can we EVER get to a reliably accurate database so the scientists can come up with accurate assessments, albeit 50 or 75 % reliable?......talk about making one's job harder.......patience MUST be an extreme virtue IMO..... I would say the data sort themselves, to professionals. The hardest part for professionals I think, is all the new tests. That's something that the medical practitioner really needs to be able to take on faith that they're accurate and adequately vetted. But the independent studies are coming out and the tests are sorting themselves out, as well. There have been several groups that have done amazing work in a short time. For studies, as I said to @Nervous Guy in another thread, good scientists learn what is good study design, what is poor study design. You look at one study which says "100%" but has no controls and excluded patients who didn't fit the conclusion, and another that had all the proper controls and adequate size and showed no significant effect and say "Welp, Then." Clinical science on the hoof has always been a messy business, three steps forward two back. The problem with being clouded with false hope and promise, I think, falls more on the public and politicians than on scientists and has most to do with the way the media reports things. Media seems very prone to sensationalism nowadays - I guess "this has a high probability of working, but it will require injection or infusion and will be costly to manufacture" is very boring compared to "this will be 100% cure!" Discovering companies are usually too small to be publicly traded and inflate their stock (Gilead was large enough to be publicly traded) but what their game is, is to attract the attention of a big pharma that will license their product or acquire them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 @Hapless Bills Fan it looks like WNY did meet the 2nd criteria for hospitalizations, but it looks like it’s only because of that big dip 2 days ago. Look at the bottom right chart. 19 hospitalizations, then 5, then 20. So, if my math is correct that would be a 14.6666 average. We could fail it as quickly as we met it though, if we don’t see more dips in hospitalizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 It will be more important now than ever to follow all the safety guidelines, especially wearing masks and social distancing. We are only entering phase 1 of reopening. That is nowhere near “back to normal”, and it is not a guarantee that we will be able to move to phase 2 (or even that we’ll be able to stay open in phase 1). We barely met the hospitalization metrics needed to be able to open. If people don’t obey the safety guidelines we will close back up as quickly as we opened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: It will be more important now than ever to follow all the safety guidelines, especially wearing masks and social distancing. We are only entering phase 1 of reopening. That is nowhere near “back to normal”, and it is not a guarantee that we will be able to move to phase 2 (or even that we’ll be able to stay open in phase 1). We barely met the hospitalization metrics needed to be able to open. If people don’t obey the safety guidelines we will close back up as quickly as we opened... I am willing to bet that when he made this announcement, Cuomo was NOT wearing a mask. This is a big failure of leadership (not just Cuomo, all levels) - it needs to be emphasized, and emphasized, and reemphasized. We aren't re-opening because the hurricane has passed and there is now no danger. There are still a substantial number of people with active covid-19 infections in the community. The disease WILL flare up if we don't take care. https://masks4all.org/ Wear a mask Continue to practice distancing Wash hands thoroughly and often Wearing a mask sucks. I hate it. I do it anyway. At best, it's hot. The better the mask, the more uncomfortable - a good-sealing mask will leave marks on your face after a couple hours wear. I do it because I believe the data that masks work to reduce emission of particles, even crappy cloth masks. Crappy masks won't keep YOU from getting sick if an unmasked person with covid-19 gets into your space and yells at you. But they keep YOU from making OTHERS sick, should you be infected and asymptomatic. IF ENOUGH PEOPLE WEAR THEM, masks break the transmission chain and will allow us to open, and remain open. The studies and simulations I linked in the other thread show that to effectively STOP the pandemic, 80% of people must wear masks. 50% will reduce the size of outbreaks. But if only 20% or 25% of people wear masks, they don't have as much effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 (edited) More detailed guidelines: https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase and here is a tool to look up your business and see if it qualifies to reopen: https://www.businessexpress.ny.gov/app/nyforward Edited May 18, 2020 by BillsFan4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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