Off-season: Expected and Surprise Cuts

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Lotulelei isn't going anywhere with that $7.8 million dead cap. Lee Smith isn't going anywhere either. He was signed as a blocking TE and he continues to be just that at a high level. People just don't like him because he doesn't catch a lot of passes. Why cut Dimarco? Are we going to draft a FB? He's adequate. Roberts isn't going anywhere...period. Hauschka only leaves if we draft a rookie kicker that blows him away in preseason -- very unlikely. That said, he'll get some competition this Summer.

 

Actually I think people don't like Lee Smith because he was a false start/holding penalty machine at the start of the season.  His playing time got cut way back during the 4 game hurry-up offense where we ran with the same 11 personnel most of the game, and it's notable when his playing time ratcheted up again to close to the same level....no penalties.

 

Lee Smith has 4 receptions on 5 targets - so when they do throw at him, he generally hauls it in (he is scored with a drop).  He's not a nimble route runner (which begs the question WHY DO YOU LINE HIM UP OUTSIDE DABOLL but I digress....).  DiMarco, 5 receptions on 7 targets, 1 scored drop.

 

 

[Motor26]

8 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Totally agree.  The biggest reason for the Bills failures during the first 16 years of the 21st century was because they did not keep the good young players they developed.  It significantly impacted the draft because they too frequently used their first and second round draft picks to fill the holes they created by either trading/not re-signing their best young veterans.

 

For myself, I'd like to see the Bills add a quality WR in FA because they need one immediately -- they still need to determine if Allen truly is a franchise QB, and giving him better targets is the best way to do that -- and the draft is always risky.   After that, I think that they'd probably do much better upgrading the middle and bottom of the roster with FAs rather than sinking most of their cap space into a couple of big names.

 

 

 

 

The Bills have the money to keep the good young players they developed, AND supplement them with good free agent signings. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, SoTier said:

You are missing the point that Rc2catch and I are advocating that the Bills shouldn't get rid of Kroft just to clear cap space and/or current salary without having somebody better already signed.   Teams have to be at/under the cap when the season starts, not during preseason.

• The Bills have plenty of cap space and don't seem to be likely to pursue many high priced FAs.  I think that they may give out 1 expensive contract to 1 key player with the rest of their signings being much more modest just as in 2019. 
• Targeting a particular FA doesn't mean that a team lands that player. 
• Just because a rookie played well in his first season doesn't mean that he will continue to improve.  Many good looking rookies disappear after their initial season.
• Moreover, if the Bills really "believe in Knox", then why pursue another, much more expensive, TE in FA?  It might be wiser for the Bills to go with Knox and Kroft and look to upgrade other positions where they have a real need like WR and RB.

 

The bolded is incorrect.  Teams must be at or under the cap, starting on Day 1 of the league New Year and at all times afterwards. 

 

I personally believe the Bills have a very real need for a top-notch dual purpose TE.  It's not an accident that the two top receiving TE in the league are playing in the Superbowl.  The Ravens showed clearly that 3 TE is none too many.

 

Knox shows promise...but as you say, many good looking rookies disappear or fail to continue to develop (and he does need to continue to develop)

 

So even if the Bills do believe in Knox, and believe that Sweeney will eventually develop, they still have an unmet need for a quality TE .... Unless you believe that Kroft has shown himself to be That Guy (in which case, please pop over to the Tyler Kroft love thread and explain the basis for this belief).

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The bolded is incorrect.  Teams must be at or under the cap, starting on Day 1 of the league New Year and at all times afterwards. 

 

I personally believe the Bills have a very real need for a top-notch dual purpose TE.  It's not an accident that the two top receiving TE in the league are playing in the Superbowl.  The Ravens showed clearly that 3 TE is none too many.

 

Knox shows promise...but as you say, many good looking rookies disappear or fail to continue to develop (and he does need to continue to develop)

 

So even if the Bills do believe in Knox, and believe that Sweeney will eventually develop, they still have an unmet need for a quality TE .... Unless you believe that Kroft has shown himself to be That Guy (in which case, please pop over to the Tyler Kroft love thread and explain the basis for this belief).

 

True, but during the year up to the start of the season they are under the "Top 51" rule.

[billsfan89]

On 1/17/2020 at 11:04 AM, ngbills said:

Expected:

Trent Murphy ($8.95 cap hit / $1.75M dead cap)

Spencer Long ($4.1M cap hit / $700k dead cap)

 

Surprise:

Star Lotulelei ($10.1M cap hit / $7.8M dead cap)

Tyler Kroft ($6.4M cap hit / $1.6M dead cap)

Lee Smith ($3.25M cap hit / $1M dead cap)

Steven Hauschka ($3M cap hit / $1.25M dead cap)

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

Andre Roberts ($2M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

TJ Yeldon ($1.9M cap hit / $250K dead cap)

 

I do think Murphy is likely to be cut although not a lock. Given the front offices love of depth along the O-line I expect them to restructure Long's deal and keep him (He is a solid versatile backup.) But it is possible they cut Long and spend that money elsewhere.

 

As far as your surprise cuts.

 

Andre Roberts- No way he is cut 0% chance, he makes peanuts and brings good production for his position. No idea why he is on this list. 

 

Star- I also see a very low probability he gets cut. Yes his cap number is huge but the savings are minimal. Star also turned it on late last season (After a rough mid-part of the year and a so/so start) and showed that he can anchor a run defense. 

 

Haush- I think it is a good chance he stays but a real possibility he is cut. I think his roster status is fairly safe but if he struggles in camp and pre-season and a kicker in competition with him does well I could see the team cutting him loose. 

 

Kroft- I think this should be in the expected cuts category. I think it is a great than 80% chance he gets cut. 

 

DiMarco- As a fullback he is massively overpaid for a niche position. But he is supposedly a special teams ace and given that his contract is fairly low I think they keep him although there is a slight chance they cut him. 

 

Lee Smith- They love having Smith in the locker room with Knox and Sweeny. Yes his position is very niche (and he isn’t that great at it) but I think this is another example of a veteran player McBeane loves and will show some weird loyalty to. 

 

Yeldon- 50/50 on this one, he is a decent third string RB who isn’t on a massive contract. But he isn’t a big special teams guy. Depending on what other competition they have at that position for him and how well he does in camp will determine if he makes the roster. 

 

Out of this list I would only say that Kroft is one I for sure expect to get cut. I think Long will if he refuses to restructure his deal while Yeldon and Haush could be victims of camp battles but that is going to be determined in the process of training camp. I would also say Murphy is likely to be cut but not a lock. The rest I don’t see getting cut.  

[ngbills]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Totally agree.  The biggest reason for the Bills failures during the first 16 years of the 21st century was because they did not keep the good young players they developed.  It significantly impacted the draft because they too frequently used their first and second round draft picks to fill the holes they created by either trading/not re-signing their best young veterans.

 

For myself, I'd like to see the Bills add a quality WR in FA because they need one immediately -- they still need to determine if Allen truly is a franchise QB, and giving him better targets is the best way to do that -- and the draft is always risky.   After that, I think that they'd probably do much better upgrading the middle and bottom of the roster with FAs rather than sinking most of their cap space into a couple of big names.

 

 

 

Or maybe they had 

 

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

You are missing the point that Rc2catch and I are advocating that the Bills shouldn't get rid of Kroft just to clear cap space and/or current salary without having somebody better already signed.   Teams have to be at/under the cap when the season starts, not during preseason.

• The Bills have plenty of cap space and don't seem to be likely to pursue many high priced FAs.  I think that they may give out 1 expensive contract to 1 key player with the rest of their signings being much more modest just as in 2019. 
• Targeting a particular FA doesn't mean that a team lands that player. 
• Just because a rookie played well in his first season doesn't mean that he will continue to improve.  Many good looking rookies disappear after their initial season.
• Moreover, if the Bills really "believe in Knox", then why pursue another, much more expensive, TE in FA?  It might be wiser for the Bills to go with Knox and Kroft and look to upgrade other positions where they have a real need like WR and RB.

 

 

Well the purpose was not really the timing of the cuts. Just who the potential cuts could be. So the cut Kroft is the same regardless...if you have someone better then you upgrade and cut Kroft. But I do think they may cut him regardless so they can allocate his money elsewhere if they are happy with Knox, Sweeney, Smith, Croom. They are not keeping all 5 and Kroft is the most expensive. 

 

Bills failures is not as simple as they failed to keep their own. There are many reasons - mostly lack of a QB, bad hiring decisions and repeated churning of coaches, bad luck playing in AFC east vs Brady, and on and on. Not sure if simply keeping our own would have changed much of that. Making the right coach hire and him developing a roster over a number of years is what would have.

 

I agree on your WR need. However, after that this team does not lack depth.They lack star power. If anything depth is the strength of this team. They have a ton of avg to above avg talent across the board. They need a few elite players. They need a star WR and young OL and edge  rusher. They have $90M lets use some of that on those areas. Not padding our depth.If Allen can be more consistent then this team is a 2-3 really good players away from being a playoff and super bowl contender. Better Allen with AJ Green/Amari Cooper, Yannick or other edge guy and just upgrade one OL spot and this team is really good. $90M can get you those. I would add Hooper at TE there and it is still doable. Maybe a pipe dream with everything falling into place but still a ton of young talent that can be good for the next 5+ years.