THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - December Football

[Figster]

On 12/18/2019 at 3:00 PM, Billsfan1972 said:

And again I will then point to a team that thought they had it all figured out......  The 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars.  The #2 defense in the league that should have gone to the SB (if they didn't crumble in the 4th vs. NE) with a QB drafted 3rd overall...... And what has happened to them (Offense & Defense) since then?

 

We do not have a crystal ball & as I've said over & over I HATE the Offensive philosophy & think they are a lot better then they are allowed to show (or are coached).

Myself personally and with all due respect Billsfan 1972. I understand the desire to see McD/ Daboll turn Josh Allen loose,  allow the gunslinger in Allen to take over, equipped with arguably the strongest arm the NFL has ever seen. Allow Josh Allen to start blasting his way into history. In my humble opinion its going to happen. In time. Young QB's are going to make mistakes. DC's in the NFL are to good. Mistakes can be limited with a more conservative game plan. The reason B B from the Patriots can plug any QB in regardless the experience and win football games is because the game plan/play calling is designed to take pressure off the QB.

 

We all want to see Josh Allen become a top 10 QB. 300 + football games. League MVP. Meanwhile McD needs to balance the development of Allen with the needs of another 52 men on the roster. All great athletes, some who may not be with the Buffalo Bills next season. All wanting a chance to play meaningful games in the playoffs. The chance to become Champions.

 

The most successful HC's in the NFL are the ones that can balance everything a team does with what wins football games...(  IMO ) 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Figster

[Billsfan1972]

58 minutes ago, Figster said:

Myself personally and with all due respect Billsfan 1972. I understand the desire to see McD/ Daboll turn Josh Allen loose,  allow the gunslinger in Allen to take over, equipped with arguably the strongest arm the NFL has ever seen. Allow Josh Allen to start blasting his way into history. In my humble opinion its going to happen. In time. Young QB's are going to make mistakes. DC's in the NFL are to good. Mistakes can be limited with a more conservative game plan. The reason B B from the Patriots can plug any QB in regardless the experience and win football games is because the game plan/play calling is designed to take pressure off the QB.

 

We all want to see Josh Allen become a top 10 QB. 300 + football games. League MVP. Meanwhile McD needs to balnce the development of Allen with the needs of another 52 men on the roster. All great athletes, some who may not be with the Buffalo Bills next season. All wanting a chance to play meaningful games in the playoffs. The chance to become Champions.

 

The most successful HC's in the NFL are the ones that can balance everything a team does with what wins football games...(  IMO ) 

And I don't see him doing that as Allen should have had 300+ yard games and way more in game reps to produce.

 

Everyone loves to talk about the future......  What if it is now & they need to come back from down 14 or extend a lead.  McD's formula has been to coast all year.  How come Lyler Murray put up #'s his first NFL games & with Allen this team is scared to score and open up the offense the majority of times?

[Figster]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And I don't see him doing that as Allen should have had 300+ yard games and way more in game reps to produce.

 

Everyone loves to talk about the future......  What if it is now & they need to come back from down 14 or extend a lead.  McD's formula has been to coast all year.  How come Lyler Murray put up #'s his first NFL games & with Allen this team is scared to score and open up the offense the majority of times?

My point is more on winning football games now vs turning a developing young QB loose like the Browns did with Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is a very promising young QB that was turned into one of the leagues worst turnover machines the 1st half of the season. I didn't have to happen. Not IMO.

 

On a side note : Lamar Jackson is near the bottom of the league in pass attempts and passing yardage. Amazing considering Jackson is the front runner for League MVP playing the QB position.

 

Amazing athlete...

Edited December 20, 2019 by Figster

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And I don't see him doing that as Allen should have had 300+ yard games and way more in game reps to produce.

 

Everyone loves to talk about the future......  What if it is now & they need to come back from down 14 or extend a lead.  McD's formula has been to coast all year.  How come Lyler Murray put up #'s his first NFL games & with Allen this team is scared to score and open up the offense the majority of times?

You're one of those guys who keeps jumping from point, never defending what you say. 

 

First it was SF, and when I pointed out they have a QB who learned from the masters for four years before he ever started, you moved on to Jacksonville.  It's kind of funny you picked Jacksonville, because McDermott's one-step-at-a-time approach is designed to avoid exactly what happened to Jacksonville.  Then you move on to Kyler Murray, whose coach plays wide open offense, turns Kyler Murray loose, and wins FOUR games.   

 

Now you'll change the subject again.   

 

We all understand, you want Allen throwing the ball all over the field.  Kyler isn't winning doing that, Mayfield isn't winning doing that, Darnold isn't winning doing that, yet somehow you think the Bills would be better off if Allen would be better off with Allen throwing 35 times a game.   Now you'll say, well, look at Mahomes, and we'll say, right now Mahomes looks like a once in a generation QB, and he looked like that from day one.  Allen doesn't look like that.  And Mahomes plays for a great offensive coach with outstanding skill position players around him.   

 

Now that we've taken care of Mahomes, what you got?   

 

And what's this come back from down 14 or extend the lead stuff   First, with the Bills defense, it's hard to imagine being down 14.  But Allen leads the league in comeback victories.  And the Bills don't aggressively work to extend leads.   Not with a young, inexperienced QB.  

[CorkScrewHill]

Shaw66 you write like an old school sports reporter ... you have facts but you intersperse them amongst a compelling narrative that makes your words impactful. You have opinions but they are part of the overall story not a banging gong that focuses on how smart you are and less on the story itself. I only joined in early October but the Rockpile Review is must reading ... truly appreciate you putting these together!

[billspro]

On 12/16/2019 at 10:35 AM, Shaw66 said:

December football is different.   It’s intense.  There’s an urgency about it that’s missing from the games earlier in the NFL season. 

 

It happens every season.  Fifteen or twenty teams are competing for a spot in the playoffs, or for home field advantage.  Many of the teams that have been eliminated share the intensity because they don’t want to be embarrassed, they want to make a point, they want to build a resume for free agency, they want to close out a career with positives, something.   Everyone feels it.

 

The fans talk about playing meaningful games in December.  They want their team to be one of the fifteen or twenty looking to the playoffs.

 

It’s December football, and the Buffalo Bills have arrived.   

 

The Bills arrived in Pittsburgh with a 9-4 record and persistent doubts about whether they are playoff material.  The doubts were well earned, because, over the past 20 years the Bills had occasionally knocked at the front door of December football.  On rare occasions, they were admitted, only to be quickly booted out the back door and sent home.  This year, the Bills’ weak schedule and inconsistent offense fueled the doubts.  Even though the Bills had led the AFC Wild Card race for weeks, few people believed in them.   They didn’t believe even after the Bills played the Ravens essentially even the week before because, well, because the Bills didn’t win, and December football is about winning. 

 

Winning requires execution at a high level, hitting harder, making the critical plays, playing through challenges.  It requires heart, courage, and excellence.  The Bills are all of that. 

 

The Bills beat the Steelers 17-10 in Pittsburgh on Sunday night.  A December Sunday night.  They clinched a playoff spot by beating a team that has made a habit of winning December football games for decades.  They beat a team that needed a win to climb even with the Bills in the race for the playoffs.  They beat the Steelers with the Steelers fans making noise and waving those yellow towels and all of that.    

 

It’s December football, and the Bills have arrived. 

 

The Bills defense took over the game early and never let go.  The Steelers had a touchdown drive of 69 yards, one other drive of 58 yards.   The rest of the game they gained a total of 102 yards.     

 

The Bills took the Steelers out of their running game and forced Devlin Hodges to throw.  Throwing against Buffalo is a losing proposition.  Opponents attempt passes against the Bills around the league average – about 34 per game, and the Bills have the second best passer rating of all NFL defenses.   Hodges attempted 38 and couldn’t figure out the Bills.  As the pressure grew for the Steelers to get back into the game, he took more chances and turned the ball over.  The Bills were in almost total control.

 

A couple of things stood out in the Bills defensive effort.  First was the defensive line.   They were tough against the run, pretty much the entire night.  The gaping holes, the big cut-back lanes that they had allowed earlier in the season are gone.   Running against that line and those linebackers is a chore.   And the front four was getting consistent pressure on Hodges without the blitz.   The pocket kept closing in on him, increasing the pressure and forcing him to run and throw on the run, neither of which he does particularly well.  Then, when the Bills blitzed, Hodges was in trouble right from the snap. 

 

Second was the preparation for the game.  If Hodges completed a pass, in rhythm and on time, there always was a tackler, and often two or three tacklers, arriving as the receiver tried to tack on yards after catch.  There were more or less no yard after catch, particularly on multiple third down plays where the Steelers completed a pass short of the line to gain.   The Bills defense knew what to expect and knew how to respond.    It was impressive. 

 

Sean McDermott’s conservative approach to football, or at least what many fans believe to be a conservative approach, was on display in all its glory against the Steelers.  When Allen threw his interception late in the first half and was bailed out by the defense’s own take-away, McDermott had seen enough and ran out the clock.  In the second half, after White’s interception and 49-yard return with the Bills down 10-7, McDermott put the Bills offense into a shell – if they could get a first down rushing, fine; if they could get a touchdown rushing, fine; otherwise, they were taking the field goal and tying the score. The way his defense was playing, McDermott knew that getting points on the interception was much more important than getting the lead.

 

A few minutes later, with the score tied and after the defense stopped the Steelers on three plays, McDermott let Allen come out throwing, and Allen responded, first hitting Brown deep down the left sideline and then delivering a perfect pass to Kroft for the touchdown.  I expect that when Daboll was giving Allen the play call for the TD, he told Allen that if there was any chance of a pick, throw the ball over Kroft’s head and take the field goal.  Allen saw Kroft break free to the sideline and made a professional throw. 

 

That was it for to McDermott.   One more score would have put the game out of reach, but McDermott was content to run the ball and leave the game in the hands of the defense.   The defense didn’t disappoint.

 

McDermott’s approach isn’t so much conservative as it is smart.  It’s December football, and December football is about winning. 

 

Having said that, McDermott’s conservative, game-winning approach can be nerve-wracking.  The final minutes of the Steelers game were anything but comfortable; taking a knee while a couple of minutes run off the clock is a much more civilized way to end a game.   A really well prepared team wouldn’t give the Steelers a free timeout with a needless penalty; leaving the Steelers with more than a minute and half, instead of less than a minute, put the game at risk one more time.  

 

McDermott’s approach is driven by where Allen is in his development as an NFL quarterback.  Allen is a cannon, and I don’t mean just his arm – he has the throwing, running and leadership ability to blow up defenses.  How do we know that?   He is tied with Russell Wilson for the league lead this season with the most game-winning drives (5) and most comeback wins (4).  But he’s young and learning, so he’s a loose cannon.  McDermott has seen his cannon blow up in his face (like against the Patriots) instead of blowing up the defense.  So what does McDermott do?   He doesn’t risk things blowing up in his face unless he has too.  He plays for the win, not for the highlights. 

 

McDermott lets Allen practice managing the game, practice making the throws he needs to make without putting the team at risk.  Allen gets to practice in the first half.  As soon as the Bills get the lead in the second half, practice time is over and McDermott is playing to win the game.   Winning the game means don’t give your young quarterback a chance to blow up.  As Allen develops into a more reliable weapon, I think we’ll see McDermott open up and go for the jugular. 

 

We saw some of the loose cannon on Sunday night.   Allen made three or four poor throws on plays that should have been easy completions.  One of those resulted in an interception.   The decision making on the INT was fine, the throw was college-accurate when it needed to be pro-accurate.   We know Allen can make all of the throws, because we’ve seen it.   He needs the professional discipline to do it every time.  Until Allen shows that discipline, with a second-half lead McDermott will take the ball out of his hands.

 

Chris Collinsworth analyzed Allen’s footwork on one play, talked about Allen’s base being too wide and whatever.  I don’t know if he was right about all that, but he made a more important point, which is that Allen needs to recognize and understand what’s going on more quickly.  The extra time is what Allen needs to make the throw right, because he has the arm strength and throwing ability to make throws from all sorts of positions.   Recognition and understanding is where Allen needs work.

 

The 2019 season isn’t over, and there could be a lot more to cheer about, but 2019 already is a success for the Bills.   With this collection of players, 10-4 (even if it were to turn into 10-6) is a success, having clinched the playoffs is a success.  (I’ll admit it: I clicked on the standings more than once the day after the game, just to see the small letter next to the Bills’ name, the letter that means the Bills have clinched something.   Haven’t seen a small letter in a long time.)  

 

More importantly, 2019 is a success for McDermott’s process.  He has done what he planned to do, he’s gotten the results he expected he would get, and the process continues.   He doesn’t yet have all the talent he needs, and he and his coaches and players haven’t yet grown all the way into his system.  As Collinsworth said during the game, we’re looking at the base on which McDermott is going to build his team, not at the finished product.  It’s all what McDermott told us when he arrived, and it’s all happening.

 

Welcome to December football.  Welcome to the playoffs.   Welcome to the new era. 

 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

I don’t think we are as conservative as people think. The 4th down call was gutsy. I thought they played it safe after the Tre White int but one of the plays was a called throw from Gore, he just had to hold it because the defence wasn’t fooled. They were playing to win though. We have had a brutal stretch playing 3 of the top 5 NFL defences, Allen is going to learn a lot from these games. Hopefully, it will pay off in the playoffs.

12 hours ago, Figster said:

Myself personally and with all due respect Billsfan 1972. I understand the desire to see McD/ Daboll turn Josh Allen loose,  allow the gunslinger in Allen to take over, equipped with arguably the strongest arm the NFL has ever seen. Allow Josh Allen to start blasting his way into history. In my humble opinion its going to happen. In time. Young QB's are going to make mistakes. DC's in the NFL are to good. Mistakes can be limited with a more conservative game plan. The reason B B from the Patriots can plug any QB in regardless the experience and win football games is because the game plan/play calling is designed to take pressure off the QB.

 

We all want to see Josh Allen become a top 10 QB. 300 + football games. League MVP. Meanwhile McD needs to balance the development of Allen with the needs of another 52 men on the roster. All great athletes, some who may not be with the Buffalo Bills next season. All wanting a chance to play meaningful games in the playoffs. The chance to become Champions.

 

The most successful HC's in the NFL are the ones that can balance everything a team does with what wins football games...(  IMO ) 

 

The 300 yard games will come next year. Our skill players are still not at the level for us to become a high flying offence. That’s the next step in the process.

[transplantbillsfan]

Great post Shaw, but I hope McDermott throws conservative out the window in the playoffs and keeps his foot on the gas once/if we get the lead.

 

Maybe Duck Hodges at QB was the entire calculation, but the ending of that game irritated me. We got 2 INTs, but on the 1st one Poyer got the All-22 showed the WR came open in the End zone and Hodges anticipated and threw it earlier, it's a TD.

 

I understand the logic of holding Allen's hand and bringing him along slowly, but I hope McDermott understands that at some point potentially very soon--like against high powered offenses and dangerous QBs like Brady/Watson/Mahomes/Jackson--he needs to let go of that hand and allow this offense to thrive or die in a one 'n done scenario.

[Billsfan1972]

Shaw we can agree to disagree.  I use examples from all over the league because they are everywhere and qb's are posting these #'s every week.

 

You have a narrative & believe McD is correct in almost every call & decision and conversely I think otherwise.

 

I use the 300 yard measuring stick because it is an accepted stat & Buffalo is the only team in the NFL that is not able to reach it (not in 1 or 2, but 3 years).  This is obviously on the coaching staff as we have the likes of Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen,  Drew Lock, Daniel Jones (1st game) & many others hitting that mark.....  

 

The defense is very good, but quit thinking it is legendary.  BTW were they not down 16-0 week one?  And vs. Philly.....  

 

Outside Baltimore & Dallas, the Bills have too played pretty bad offenses all year as part of what has been an easy schedule.  Also many inexperienced QB's.

 

The Pittsburgh game & your narrative that McD was so smart in knowing that they could beat them with Duck at QB is case in point.  The Bills won, but that was primarily due to a shanked punt (40 yard field), an int (Pitt was driving) returned 60 odd yards & then the Bills basically kneeled until time to kick a FG, one drive with 2 completions & finally giving the Steelers two possessions at the end of the game to tie it.....  

 

It worked & then you come here and explain it was brilliant coaching (hyperbole) knowing that no mistakes & you win the game.

 

Sorry I am tired of less then 150 yards passing (<300 total yards) the past two weeks from an offense that I think is much better.

 

And unfortunately I expect to come here & read the same after the Pats game, which I expect will be the same game plan.

 

 

[Scott7975]

On 12/18/2019 at 9:09 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

That's coach speak for "Don't blame us if we suck".....  

 

Look how quick SF has turned it around.  Many examples.

 

If they know what they have in Allen, then let him loose every once in a while.  The Baltimore game was just horrendous when it came to the play calling as he was under pressure all game and seemingly no adjustments..  

 

These <200 yard games are just way too common.

 

Remember I think Allen is the real deal, but these games we see over & over are 100% (at least 90%) on the coaching. 

 

 

Josh Allen: 6 games under 200 yards

Lamar Jackson: 6 games under 200 yards

Tom Brady: 4 games under 200 yards (wouldn't be shocked if he got his 5th today)

Edited December 21, 2019 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Shaw we can agree to disagree.  I use examples from all over the league because they are everywhere and qb's are posting these #'s every week.

 

You have a narrative & believe McD is correct in almost every call & decision and conversely I think otherwise.

 

I use the 300 yard measuring stick because it is an accepted stat & Buffalo is the only team in the NFL that is not able to reach it (not in 1 or 2, but 3 years).  This is obviously on the coaching staff as we have the likes of Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen,  Drew Lock, Daniel Jones (1st game) & many others hitting that mark.....  

 

The defense is very good, but quit thinking it is legendary.  BTW were they not down 16-0 week one?  And vs. Philly.....  

 

Outside Baltimore & Dallas, the Bills have too played pretty bad offenses all year as part of what has been an easy schedule.  Also many inexperienced QB's.

 

The Pittsburgh game & your narrative that McD was so smart in knowing that they could beat them with Duck at QB is case in point.  The Bills won, but that was primarily due to a shanked punt (40 yard field), an int (Pitt was driving) returned 60 odd yards & then the Bills basically kneeled until time to kick a FG, one drive with 2 completions & finally giving the Steelers two possessions at the end of the game to tie it.....  

 

It worked & then you come here and explain it was brilliant coaching (hyperbole) knowing that no mistakes & you win the game.

 

Sorry I am tired of less then 150 yards passing (<300 total yards) the past two weeks from an offense that I think is much better.

 

And unfortunately I expect to come here & read the same after the Pats game, which I expect will be the same game plan.

 

 

I think Shaw's point is that a lot of QBs throwing for 300 yards are not winning.  I can't believe that you would rather see a 300 yard game every week than a winning team every week. Buffalo doesn't throw for 300 yards because that is not the winning formula for Buffalo right now.  I do not see why that matters.  I want to see this team win every week, not throw for some arbitrary number that is meaningless.  Prescott throws for 300 all the time.  How many games they won?

 

How many QBs have passed for 300+ yards against Pitts and Ravens this year btw?

Edited December 21, 2019 by Scott7975

[Billsfan1972]

Forget 300 yards the Bills didn't even throw for 150 yards vs. Pitt or Balt.

 

There always is some excuse. The defenses are good, giving Allen a chance to learn, this is part of the process... blah blah blah.....

 

Don't you think that because Allen has the number one QB rating in the 4th quarter says something about his ability the other three quarters?

 

Also a number of Jackson's games under 200 yards were blowouts (& included 3-5 td passes. The only one of Allen's that could be considered the same would probably be the Denver game however again only 20 pts.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[CorkScrewHill]

On 12/17/2019 at 2:07 PM, Billsfan1972 said:

I do like your analysis and you do a great job.  However I think McD is all about the D & has has blind spot with respect to offense as there is no reason it could not have been better this year (a perfect signing forgetting his 4 game suspension would have been Golden Tate). 

 

BTW How else do you explain the Nathan Peterman experiment, not once, but twice?????

It is easy to explain the Nathan Peterman experiment ... 1) they were not satisfied with the Tyrod Taylor experiment ... which was born out when he quickly lost the starting job in Cleveland; 2) He had an excellent preseason the 2nd year and many QBs take a big step the second year. They quickly realized that he was not regular season capable mentally and moved quickly to replace.

 

AJ McCarron has done nothing since being traded .. so he was not the answer either. All teams make mistakes... the good ones quickly realize and alter their approach. We are not there yet, but the arrow is definitely trending up

[Sweats]

I'm happy the Bills made it into the playoffs on THEIR terms, not having to sit back and let the dice-o-chance roll and see what other teams get knocked out and re-seeded and sneak into the playoffs through the backdoor........they kicked that playoff front door wide open and said, "We're here, baby.......now go make me friggin sandwich, *****!!!!".

 

I'm loving it.

[Billsfan1972]

On 12/18/2019 at 11:53 AM, Shaw66 said:

SF has the guy who was generally regarded as the best young offensive coach in the league, and they have a QB who studied under Belichick and McDaniel for four or five years before coming to SF.   Even with that, Garoppolo has thrown for only 600 more yards than Allen, and Garoppolo is playing in much better weather.  

 

I get that you don't like it.  To expect that McDermott will take your approach over the approach he has chosen doesn't make sense.  Do you want to fire McDermott?  If not, live with it. 

So are you telling me that Kyle Shanahan is a better coach then McD since he turned them around immediately & has a great D too?  How about McVay & how quick he turned the Rams around & made the SB? 

 

Garoppolo is 4-1 throwing under 200 yards & almost all were 14+ point wins.....  They too averaged 27.8 points in those games with 3 over 30, a 9-0 win in what was considered just terrible weather & the loss in rain to Baltimore.

 

Allen is 3-3 (though NE shouldn't count) & the wins were by 17, 15 & 7 & they averaged 18.2 points in the other 5.....  

 

Should I continue?