26CornerBlitz Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 (edited) Projected Final Win Totals for 2018: Rams, Chiefs Riding High By Cynthia Frelund NFL Network Analytics Expert Now that eight weeks of the 2018 season have passed, we have enough data about the identity and potential of each team to really start sorting out who will be contending in January and who will be picking near the top of the 2019 NFL Draft next spring. Just as I did before the season began, I've used a model to generate projected final win totals for the 2018 campaign, providing a peek at how things could play out as we head down the final stretch toward the playoffs. But first, here's a quick look at how my model works. My model compares this season's games with 15 previous seasons of situational production metrics that led to wins and losses (between 2003 and 2017). Tracking personnel, matchups, play-calling and results from past seasons establishes historical "profiles." The results from the games that have already been played this season are then collected and analyzed in the same way, with the model revealing similarities between the current iteration of each team and its past versions. Then each remaining game is simulated. The reason every game isn't a 50/50 coin flip is because each team has different strengths and weaknesses, and the way they match up against each other has different historical references for "what happened most often." Because there are many different ways the situational aspect of football can play out, it's necessary to run many simulations for each remaining game, to see each of the involved teams' profiles stack up over a range of reasonable situations. Just how many times is each game simulated? While I might ordinarily go with a figure like 10,000, I decided to up the number to 20,000, including each remaining game in the regular season (there are 135 left). A quick note: Scoring is obviously up this year compared to past years (we're on track to set a new offensive scoring record). But that change hasn't yet -- and likely won't -- significantly affect the use of historical data, as the most influential production factors (things like turnovers and red-zone efficiency), taken in context of the game situation (think: down, distance, score and time), remain consistent with what we've seen before, in terms of what relates most strongly to the ability to win games. Edited November 1, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 So that puts us at the 3rd overall pick......and picking high in all 10 rounds? ALL PART OF THE PLAN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I was at 3. could go 5 but after the first half of the seasons offensive struggles, I'll stand at 3. they'll split with the jets to get their 3rd win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 19 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: So that puts us at the 3rd overall pick......and picking high in all 10 rounds? ALL PART OF THE PLAN Ten rounds? You know something about the draft that hasn't been revealed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Ten rounds? You know something about the draft that hasn't been revealed? ehhhhh excuse me "10 picks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 minute ago, John from Riverside said: ehhhhh excuse me "10 picks" Well some of the picks aren't contingent on the Bills' record since they came in trades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Sweet! Last time we picked at Number 3 we landed Dareus. Flash forward and folks are once again dreaming of yet another D Lineman. Round and round it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittsforDave Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Just now, SoCal Deek said: Sweet! Last time we picked at Number 3 we landed Dareus. Flash forward and folks are once again dreaming of yet another D Lineman. Round and round it goes. Yup. See what happens when ego gets in the way of building a roster. The wheels just keep spinning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBean Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Awesome. Lets do it again next year! Need to do it in 2020 and take Trevor Lawrence. Do what you have to do to get him in a Buffalo Bills uniform. Whatever it takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Sweet! Last time we picked at Number 3 we landed Dareus. Flash forward and folks are once again dreaming of yet another D Lineman. Round and round it goes. The more things change the more they stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 If Allen doesn't come back, we may well not win another game this year. Unfortunately we already have 2, so we can only sink so far... But would love to see us pick #1, 2, or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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