I'm starting to think the QB Class is Overhyped

[mjt328]

On 4/21/2018 at 8:08 PM, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

 

I think it's the complete opposite.

Most years, there are only 1-2 legitimate/consensus Quarterback prospects at the top of the draft.  Teams desperate for a QB have no choice but to swing a deal for one of those top picks.  Otherwise, they will miss out.  This year, there are 4-5 legitimate QB prospects.  And there is really no consensus over which guy is the best.  It really comes down to a matter of preference and team fit. 

 

In addition, the teams at the top (specifically the Browns and Giants) are playing their strategy very close to the vest.  By this point, we usually have a pretty good idea who is going #1 overall.  And we usually have an idea which direction the #2 pick is leaning.  This year, the Browns have been linked to virtually everyone.  They aren't giving away their strategy for anything.  And nobody has a clue if the Giants want a QB or not.  Same thing with the Broncos at #5.

 

When you add everything up... it becomes pretty clear why teams aren't making trades yet.

• Let's say the Bills are specifically targeting ONE QUARTERBACK, and trade away everything to move up to #2 before the draft even starts.  What happens if the Browns take that guy at #1?  The Bills have completely screwed themselves.  It's best to wait and see who the Browns take, then possibly deal with the Giants.
• Now lets say the Bills really like a THREE OR FOUR QUARTERBACKS.  It's totally possible that the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs, and they will be able to land their guy with a much smaller move-up into the #6-10 range.  Why trade everything for Sam Darnold, when you can get Josh Rosen with a much lower offer?

 

I think ALL of the teams after Cleveland are viewing the draft like this.  That is why you haven't seen anything happen yet.

 

[BigBuff423]

I've said from the beginning: this QB class is deep in "good" QBs or "potentially great" QBs, but there is no one like Luck that says, YOU MUST get THIS guy or else! Additionally, I think five or six of these QBs could be interchangeable in terms of wins per year. Meaning, you could get a guy like Darnold who is awesome, but because of his style of play, may not translate to more "wins" but more exciting and a more roller coaster type of Offense. Then with a guy like Rudolph, he's ready to go but maybe give him a year to learn an NFL Offense, but because he's not throwing the ball like some QBs, his wins will come by careful management and the occasional deep ball which won't necessarily get you to 13 wins. Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson....all QBs whom I'd like the Bills to have but each have their warts. So, trading UP in this type of QB class does not make sense to me. If Peyton were sitting there at 1 and you were willing to trade everything you've got this year to get him, I would HATE to give up all those picks, but I definitely would understand it. 

 

In this type of draft year, nope. Keep in mind, the areas this Draft is deep: QB (duh) / RB / LB / DT are all areas the Bills need as well. Making the price to move up, even harder. Because the guys you need, will be there in the 2nd / 3rd / 4th and even 5th round.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

I agree that it seems a bit strange that there are people saying that there are 5 or so QB's who should be in the top 10 and maybe 8-9 in the first round.   What has happened this century in the actual draft?

 

year ..............top 5................ 6-10....................... 11-20...................... 21-32 ..................total

===============================================================================

2016 .................2......................... .0............................. 0............................... 1................................ 3

2015................. 2........................... 0............................ 0................................ 0................................ 2

2014 .................1........................... 0.............................0................................ 2................................ 3

2012 ..................2.......................... 1............................. 0................................ 1............................... 4

2011.................. 1.......................... 2............................. 1................................ 0............................... 4

2010 .................1.......................... 0............................... 0................................1............................... 2

2009................. 2.......................... 0.............................. 1................................ 0............................... 3

2008................. 1........................... 0............................. 1................................ 0............................... 2

2007................. 1.......................... 0.............................. 0................................. 1.............................. 2

2006.................. 1.......................... 1.............................. 1............................... 0............................... 3

2005 ..................1.......................... 0............................. 2................................ 0.............................. 3

2004................... 2......................... 0.............................. 1............................... 1............................... 4

2003.................. 1.......................... 1.............................. 1................................ 1............................. 4

2002 ..................2.......................... 0.............................. 0................................ 1............................. 4

2001................... 1......................... 0............................. 0..................................0 ..............................1

2000 ...................0......................... 0.............................. 1................................ 0.............................. 1

 

So all lot of one or two QB's in the top 5, a lot of ZERO QB's in the 6-10 (and indication of reaching I think) and  2,3,4 overall in the first round.  This year's prediction,  is all over the map, lets use  http://www.businessinsider.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-consensus-first-round-2018-1#32-kolton-miller-ot-ucla-32

 

year ..............top 5...................... 6-10....................... 11-20........................ 21-32 ......................total

=================================================================================

2018..................3..............................1....................................1..................................0...............................5   

others.(avg)....1.2 ...........................0.3................................ 0.5............................... 0.5.......................... 2.6

So  5 of 17 years had as many as 4 taken in the first round and this year it is 5 taken.  If we look at QB in the top 10 and the rest of the round and compare we get:

 

2018.......................top 10................22 to 32

===================================

2018.............................1.5................1

2000->20174................4...................1

 

Just seems to be running a bit high.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 4/21/2018 at 6:35 PM, JohnC said:

At this period of time there is a good reason why  teams aren't making deals just prior to the draft: It isn't a smart thing to do. If a team such as Buffalo is targeting a particular player why make a deal if you are not sure that that player will be on the board. If there are going to be deals it will happen on the day of the draft as it is unfolding. 

Exactly. Bills very well could have Darnold rated head and shoulders above everyone else at the position. If he were to somehow get past the Browns, Bills very well could throw everything including the kitchen sink towards the Giants in terms of trade value to move up. Talking four first round picks. Now if he isn't there at #2, they may prefer to see who falls at 12 or move up to 5-7 i f the deal is friendly to them in value. We just don't know.

[Virgil]

I just think it’s a dangerous game to wait if you know there’s a guy you want.  You only allow other teams more opportunity to jump ahead of you first.  

 

As of now, I think the Giants have a clear favorite #1 and they are holding up any trades 

[Punching Bag]

On 4/21/2018 at 9:35 PM, JohnC said:

What teams are doing now are making exploratory overtures and seeing if the teams are interested. I'm confident that Buffalo has talked to all the teams that are drafting in front of them and many drafting after them. My expectation is that when the draft begins there will be a flurry of activity. 

 

I agree but expect Bills have NOT talked to the biggest Chicken in the NFL, the Jests. They jumped early and are unlikely to jump back unless the one player they leap frogged for is gone.

 

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I agree but expect Bills have NOT talked to the biggest Chicken in the NFL, the Jests. They jumped early and are unlikely to jump back unless the one player they leap frogged for is gone.

 

I'm confident that the Bills are talking to a lot of teams but not to teams in their own division. 

[gr8billsfan]

I say there will be 4 Great QBs in this draft. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Rudolph.  plug and replace Jackson with anyone because he could be.