Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Bill Polian In The Draft? HINT: Not as good as you'd think

[BuffaloRush]

It's time to analyze an NFL Hall of Famer and one of the Bills greatest GM's ever....Bill Polian.  Recently Polian has been the target of much controversy based on comments that some would deem to be outrageous.  But how was Polian in the draft for the Bills?  

 

It will surprise you but from a Hits and Misses standpoint, the final number is nowhere as high as you might image.  In fact, I'll say he's the lowest so far and below you'll see why.
 

Before we rank Polian, here's the standings so far

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

 

 

1986 Draft

1986	1	Ronnie Harmon	16	RB	1997	0	1	1	63	181						615	2774	10	582	6076	24			Iowa
1986	1	Will Wolford	20	T	1998	0	3	13	75	191														Vanderbilt
1986	3	Leonard Burton	77	C	1992	0	0	0	7	60														South Carolina
1986	5	Carl Byrum	111	RB	1988	0	0	1	5	41						132	527	0	18	127	1			Miss. Valley St.
1986	7	Bob Williams	168	TE		0	0	0																Penn St.
1986	7	Mark Pike	178	DE	1998	0	0	0	10	173													1.0	Georgia Tech
1986	7	Butch Rolle	180	TE	1993	0	0	1	2	124									38	213	11			Michigan St.
1986	8	Tony Furjanic	202	LB	1988	0	0	0	2	28														Notre Dame
1986	9	Reggie Bynum	222	WR	1987	0	0	0	0	1									2	24	0			Oregon St.
1986	10	Guy Teafatiller	251	DT	1987	0	0	0	1	3													1.5	Illinois
1986	11	Tony Garbarczyk	278	DE	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Wake Forest
1986	11	Billy Witt	282	DE	1987	0	0	0	1	2														North Alabama
1986	12	Brian McClure	313	QB	1987	0	0	0	1	1	20	38	181	0	3	2	4	0						Bowling Green
1986	12	Derek Christian	331	LB		0	0	0																West Virginia

 

Hits 1 Misses 13 = 7%

 

OUCH The big selecting is Wolford who became of the NFL's best LT.  I am not going to give Harmon a miss.  He was dynamic RB when it came to catching the ball but I don't this his production warranted #16.  Butch Rolle and Mike Pike are known among Bills fans but neither was anything more than a marginal contributor.  Rolle was a 3rd string TE that had a fun streak of catching TE's and Pike was a great special teams guy but IMO neither were starters and don't warrant a "hit."

 

7	1	Shane Conlan	8	LB	1995	0	3	8	59	120												5	7.0	Penn St.
1987	2	Nate Odomes	29	DB	1996	0	2	7	53	115												26	3.0	Wisconsin
1987	2	Roland Mitchell	33	DB	1994	0	0	1	15	89												6	1.0	Texas Tech
1987	3	David Brandon	60	LB	1997	0	0	1	20	123												4	7.0	Memphis
1987	3	Jamie Mueller	78	RB	1990	0	0	2	8	57						238	901	4	28	169	1			Benedictine
1987	4	Leon Seals	109	DE	1992	0	0	2	22	82												1	14.5	Jackson St.
1987	7	Kerry Porter	171	RB	1990	0	0	0	0	35						16	57	0	4	44	0			Washington St.
1987	8	Bruce Mesner	209	NT	1987	0	0	0	1	11														Maryland
1987	9	Keith McKeller	227	TE	1993	0	0	4	16	80									124	1464	11			Jacksonville St.
1987	11	Howard Ballard	283	T	1998	0	2	10	67	170														Alabama A&M
1987	12	Joe McGrail	311	NT	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Delaware

 

5 Hits/6 Misses = 45%

 

Overall a good draft.  I am giving Conlan a "hit" as he developed in a Pro Bowl player for 3 seasons.  Mueller is probably the closest to a hit from the group, but I really don't feel he was more than a blocking FB and that his production doesn't match his status.  Great picks with Seals, McKeller and Ballard toward the end.

 

988	2	Thurman Thomas HOF	40	RB	2000	2	5	10	112	182	0	1	0	0	0	2877	12074	65	472	4458	23			Oklahoma St.
1988	3	Bernard Ford	65	WR	1990	0	0	0	1	24									17	176	2			Central Florida
1988	5	Ezekial Gadson	123	DB		0	0	0																Pittsburgh
1988	5	Kirk Roach	135	K		0	0	0																West. Carolina
1988	6	Dan Murray	150	LB	1990	0	0	0	0	4														East Stroudsburg
1988	7	Tim Borcky	177	T		0	0	0																Memphis
1988	7	Bo Wright	184	RB		0	0	0																Alabama
1988	8	John Hagy	204	DB	1990	0	0	1	6	28												2		Texas
1988	8	Jeff Wright	213	NT	1994	0	0	5	30	98												1	31.5	Central Missouri St.
1988	9	Carlton Bailey	235	LB	1997	0	0	6	44	142												1	10.0	North Carolina
1988	10	Martin Mayhew	262	DB	1996	0	0	7	41	118												21	1.0	Florida St.
1988	11	Pete Curkendall	289	DT		0	0	0																Penn St.
1988	12	John Driscoll	309	T		0	0	0																New Hampshire
1988	12	Tom Erlandson	316	LB	1988	0	0	0	0	4

 

3 Hits/11 Misses = 21%

 

OK Thurman goes without saying.  TREMENDOUS pick.  The rest?  Eh not so much.  Bailey was a great late round pick who turned into a capable starter.  As I've stated before Wright IMO was the weak link on the defense and if Ted Washington falls to the Bills, they might have won a Super Bowl.  Still Wright was great value in Round 8.  Martin Mayhew did turn out to be a decent starter in the NFL but not for the Bills

 

89	3	Don Beebe	82	WR	1997	0	0	4	33	116						4	28	0	219	3416	23			Chadron St.
1989	4	John Kolesar	109	WR		0	0	0																Michigan
1989	5	Michael Andrews	137	DB		0	0	0																Alcorn St.
1989	6	Sean Doctor	164	RB		0	0	0																Marshall
1989	7	Brian Jordan	173	DB	1991	0	0	2	13	36												5	4.0	Richmond
1989	7	Chris Hale	193	DB	1992	0	0	0	4	43												1		USC
1989	9	Pat Rabold	249	DT		0	0	0																Wyoming
1989	10	Carlo Cheattom	276	DB		0	0	0																Auburn
1989	11	Richard Harvey	305	LB	2000	0	0	5	33	143												2	13.0	Tulane
1989	12	Derrell Marshall	332	T		0	0	0																USC

 

1 Hit/9 Misses = 10%

 

WOW what a bad draft.  Yes I know they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder and Beebe in the 3rd was a great pick.  The rest of this draft was straight garbage.  No late round magic this year.

 

990	1	James Williams	16	DB	1996	0	0	2	17	70												11		Fresno St.
1990	2	Carwell Gardner	42	FB	1997	0	0	0	7	101						211	749	10	36	281	1			Louisville
1990	3	Glenn Parker	69	G	2001	0	0	9	57	174														Arizona
1990	4	Eddie Fuller	100	RB	1993	0	0	0	0	20						6	39	0	2	17	0			LSU
1990	6	John Nies	154	P	1990	0	0	0	0	4														Arizona
1990	7	Brent Griffith	166	G		0	0	0																Minnesota-Duluth
1990	7	Brent Collins	170	LB		0	0	0																Carson-Newman
1990	7	Fred DeRiggi	181	NT	1990	0	0	0	0	2														Syracuse
1990	8	Marvcus Patton	208	LB	2002	0	0	9	72	208												17	27.5	UCLA
1990	9	Clarkston Hines	238	WR		0	0	0																Duke
1990	10	Mike Lodish	265	NT	2000	0	0	1	22	166													8.5	UCLA
1990	11	Al Edwards	292	WR	1992	0	0	0	4	37						2	25	0	26	264	1			NW State (LA)

 

4 Hits/8 Misses = 33%

 

Again not a stellar draft.  JD Williams was a huge whiff by Polian.  He did have some late round success with Patton and I am giving Lodish and Edwards marginal "Hits" given their contributions despite low draft status.

 

91	1	Henry Jones	26	DB	2002	1	1	8	58	158												18	5.0	Illinois
1991	2	Phil Hansen	54	DE	2001	0	0	10	62	156												1	61.5	North Dakota St.
1991	3	Darryl Wren	82	DB	1994	0	0	0	4	20												3		Pittsburg St.
1991	5	Shawn Wilbourn	138	DB		0	0	0																Long Beach St.
1991	6	Millard Hamilton	166	WR		0	0	0
1991	7	Amir Rasul	194	RB		0	0	0																Florida A&M
1991	8	Brad Lamb	222	WR	1993	0	0	0	2	8									7	139	0			Anderson (IN)
1991	9	Mark Maddox	249	LB	2000	0	0	3	24	111												2	2.5	Northern Michigan
1991	10	Tony De Lorenzo	277	G		0	0	0																New Mexico St.
1991	11	Dean Kirkland	305	G		0	0	0																Washington
1991	12	Stephen Clark	333	TE		0	0	0																Texas

 

3 hits/8 misses = 27%

Solid drafting at the top - Jones and Hansen were long term starters and huge contributors.  Maddox eventually played well enough to break the starting lineup for a few seasons.  Excellent return for a 9th round pick

 

TOTAL SCORE =  17/72 = 24%

One thing I can say about Polian with the exception of 1986 he did hit quite a bit on his 1st and 2nd round picks - and that's what you need to you to be successful.  Sure sometimes he missed, but for the most part he found good players toward the top of the draft.  He also avoided drafting any high round busts on his resume.  However, he also had many swings in the draft and missed quite a bit of picks which really surprised me.  Also Polian was involved in many stellar personnel moves outside of the draft which really helped the football team as well.    

 

But oddly enough  - the greatest GM in Bills in history has a lower success rate than Russ Brandon:

 

Current standings:

 

1. Russ Brandon = 27%

2. Marv Levy = 25%

3. Bill Polian = 23%

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[oldmanfan]

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

[Jay_Fixit]

Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. 

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

 

Well both are definitely debatable.   IMO I don't think that the Bills got a solid ROI on Gardner as a second round pick.  Perhaps it was question to draft a FB in Round 2 to begin with.  My thinking is that the team expected Gardiner to play a bigger role that he did.   While he was a competent starter at FB, I'm not sure if he lived up to draft status.

 

Pike make some nice contributions as a Special Teams player and certainly was a good role player.  It's close but I don't feel he did enough to warrant a "hit" but again, I can see why you'd think that way.

 

Regardless, the total score for Polian doesn't change much even with these two.

[oldmanfan]

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

[BuffaloRush]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. 

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

[oldmanfan]

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

[Jay_Fixit]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

Brad Butler wasn’t a hit either.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

the real point is no gm kills it when It comes to the draft.  Everyone matches their gm against the mythical perfect gm 

[oldmanfan]

This data really is eye opening.  I wonder how much influence he had on drafts before officially taking over as GM.

[Buffalo03]

Didn't he have some say on Andre and Bruce?

[Mango]

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

[stony]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He only drafted Thurman. 

[BuffaloRush]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

[stony]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Didn't he have some say on Andre and Bruce?

Bruce kinda drafts himself.  No?

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

1 minute ago, stony said:

Bruce kinda drafts himself.  No?

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

[stony]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

 

 

Total aside. Butch Rolle is a total animal at 53 years old. 

 

[BuffaloRush]

3 minutes ago, stony said:

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

Right I can agree with you.  He was also involved in many under the radar personnel moves that really helped the team.  He also assembled a very good team to help him including his successor John Butler.  He just missed quite a bit in the draft and that I didn't expect to see