Top QBs in the NFL on 3rd down

[Foreigner]

I think the smartest thing said on this thread was just said, and the WRs are the worse in the NFL.

Zay Jones one day may be a NFL #1 or #2, but he is not now. We got hosed by Carolina in the

Benjamin deal. He was injury prone with them, and has been close to useless so far. You don't

fight for a playoff spot and give up a supposed top receiver for a couple of draft picks. If he was

going to be so useful so far, are you going to tell me he couldn't be picked up by anyone else.

Oh I know, McDermott and Beane were buddies, and they were trying to help out the Bills.  

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The story of those seasons is simple........you can't throw for yardage that you've already consumed on the ground.

 

When you lead the entire league in big plays offensively you are getting excellent production from the QB position..........manufactured by scheme/coaching or not........you don't want to hear that because you hate Taylor but it happened.

 

By their actions the Bills seemingly wanted Taylor to prove he was a $30M QB this year and they wanted McCoy to be a 190 pound 300-carry plow horse and while on the whole they haven't been "bad" statistically,   they've had some bad games and both have failed at being as-productive as in 2015-2016 while being asked to be something they are not.   

 

Realistically.........they were both just caught in the crossfire of the ever-evolving "process" of coach McD..........by summer he had decided to play Jauron Ball and that low-tide approach brings practically everyone down statistically.

 

Only a fool could have thought that they could circumvent having the league's worst WR corps and not have it affect Taylor and McCoy.

 

 

 

   

 

Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? 

 

Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ???

 

Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Would it change your perception if you were wrong about that?

 

My guess is nope.

 

The criticism of Taylor has been a mobile goal post since he's been here..........remember when he didn't throw over the middle?

 

He didn't throw over the middle because the objective offensively was to throw deep and then nail comeback sideline routes underneath the bailing secondary.   Combination of ball security and big plays.  

 

This year he's been accused of not being able to throw outside the hashes.

 

We've reached the point where he gets no credit for running for a first down on third and long.........even though there is little more demoralizing for a defense than to give up a long conversion run to a QB on third down.

 

The guy has clear shortcomings but they are grossly overstated by his haters on here.   

I actually like the guy.  I just don’t think his passing acumen is high enough to be our QB going forward with a larger contract.  Good guy, good leader from what I’ve gathered. Makes plays that no other qb can make.  Just doesn’t get it done as a passing the football and sustaining drives with his arm.  Take away his mobility, which teams have been able to do and he’s not good enough to win games.   I give him a lot of credit where credit is deserved.  I also point out that he’s just not good enough of a passer.  

[Foreigner]

Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches

and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl.

You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to?

Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB,

and right now he has none of that with the Bills.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Foreigner said:

Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches

and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl.

You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to?

Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB,

and right now he has none of that with the Bills.  

The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference.

Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment.

[Foreigner]

That is what I said, having the right players, and that includes the Defense. 

[SoCal Deek]

So apparently we we've been watching a top QB all along and just didn't know it?  

 

I guess I'll to pay more attention next time we get one.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment.

100% agree. They play complimentary football and their record reflects that. The Bills do not.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, Foreigner said:

One thing is we are in 3rd and long much more than we should be, and that's on the players

and OC. I  don't know the number of negative 1st and 2nd down runs this year, but I bet a lot.

 

I bet we league the league in negative rushes by a RB on 1st and 2nd down.  I can't find that stat, anywhere, but there's the biggest reason we have the longest distance to go on 3rd down of probably any other team in the entire NFL.

[SaviorPeterman]

22 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. 

 

This x100

 

Also all those other QB's on the list (including McCown) don't have leagues worst passing offense or anywhere close to it like Buffalo.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

My guess would actually be that Taylor converts passing 3rd downs at an above-average rate efficiency wise, but that his overall attempts on third down are fewer than league average. 

 

Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down.  Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well.

 

Tom Brady has 110 passing plays.

 

 

So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down.  Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well.

 

Tom Brady has 110 passing plays.

 

 

So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point.

Link?

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Link?

 

The same link I provided in my previous post:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The same link I provided in my previous post:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017

Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure?

[transplantbillsfan]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure?

 

Well, go here:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=2017

 

You'll see that by percentage Taylor has a higher percentage of 3rd and 8+ yards to go on 3rd down.  Rivers has more, but also has more 3rd down attempts so he has a lower %.  Stafford has the same number, but also has more 3rd downs.

 

I can't find an exact number anywhere for distance to go on 3rd down.  I'm pretty sure Happydays put something out a few weeks ago regarding Footballoutsiders metric ALEX that showed a stat that measured that and Taylor had the most or 2nd most in the league at that point in terms of distance to the sticks.

 

I can't say it definitively, but just watching how often our run game gets stuffed for negative yardage I'll just call it a gut feeling.  I'd put money on us being top 3 in most negative yard runs on 1st and 2nd down, though.

Edited December 8, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Dang, he also scrambles for a 1st often too. Could probably rate him even higher based on that. 

 

Josh McCown has been very underrated the last few years. Too bad we never got him when we pushed for him.

 

Yes, Taylor also scrambles on 3rd down.

 

In fact, Taylor has scrambled on 3rd down 15 times.  He converted 10 of those scrambles for 1st downs.

 

 

Overall, on 3rd down passing plays, which include plays where the ball leaves his hand, sacks, AND scrambles, Taylor's 3rd down conversion % is 43.4% as he is 53/122 on such plays.

 

A 43.4% conversion rate on 3rd down is actually good.

 

 

Taylor also has had a few designed runs he's converted on 3rd down, including 1 rushing TD.

 

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

How often are they in 3rd and long? 

 

55% of the time he's asked to pass on 3rd down it's for 8+ yards... higher % than any other QB in the NFL.

[transplantbillsfan]

17 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Here's another question ... WHY are they often in 3rd and long?

 

Doesn't an awful lot of that have to do with how bad the offense (including Tyrod) are on 1st and 2nd downs?

 

 

Yeah, it's how bad the offense is on 1st and 2nd downs, obviously.

 

Just think of all those negative rushing plays by McCoy and Tolbert on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

If you were even remotely objective you'd know that the Lion's share of blame for our constant 8+ yards to go on 3rd down goes to our inconsistent (at best) to woeful rushing attack.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? 

 

Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ???

 

Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod.

 

See, statements like this really makes me think you don't actually watch the games.

[transplantbillsfan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

Okay, and this is a few weeks old... it was actually generated 2 days before the Chargers game, so it doesn't include the half from the Chargers game Taylor played, the Chiefs game, or the half+ from the Pats game, but you'll see that Taylor is tied, at that point, for the 3rd most "average need yards for a first down" on 3rd down.

 

So, again, we have work to do on 1st and 2nd down moreso than 3rd down.