QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Shaw66]

We are in agreement at the start and the end.

 

Do passer ratings matter, sure, but more so IMO in the 4th QTR. I believe I read (numerous places) that TT's 4th QRT ratings (65.8) are much poorer than the other portions of his game.

 

I've also see it where it claims he has the best rating of 117.

 

The other issue that people seem to care about is Taylor has 1 fourth-quarter comeback in 7 games down by 7 (=/-1pt) Two if you count being tied at the start of the 4th. The one time was against the Titans (that happened to be a bad team).

 

In general conversation -

Not sure if rumblings is a good place to cite...

With the game on the line, Taylor has a horrid quarterback rating of 0.0 (that isn’t a typo). He’s completed only 3 of 10 throws for 26 yards along with an interception.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/10/24/12862326/tyrod-taylor-late-game-situations-will-we-ever-see-tyrod-taylor-s-clutch-gene

 

The other argument I've seen posted - missing his best guys.

 

Look elsewhere around the NFL. Phillip Rivers has been missing his two top receivers and is still in the top 5 in passing yardage. Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton were without their top weapons last season and still managed to be top-20 quarterbacks.

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

[John from Riverside]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

That is where I am at as well....there is so much monkey **** that gets thrown at the wall about TT that I find myself defending him more then I really want to.

[transplantbillsfan]

Look at it this way, these are not accurate numbers, but lets say by design Taylor made 200 pass attempts throughout the season and every other QB in the league threw by design 300 pass attempts or more. Do you see why it would be useless to use low totals as a knock againt Taylor in a QB evaluation when the OC/HC made the determination they were going to run the football more then any other team in the league.

 

High yardage totals with a high INT totals is also another thing fans need to take into consideration. How many yards, change of field position and points did the INT cost you? if you calculated it all up you might find out 200 yards passing and zero turnovers is better then 300yards passing and 1 or 2 INT's.

 

One stat or yardage total doesn't give you enough information...

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

[transplantbillsfan]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

 

Yep

That is where I am at as well....there is so much monkey **** that gets thrown at the wall about TT that I find myself defending him more then I really want to.

 

Again... yep... people are ridiculous in how extreme their views are, and extremism invites opposition.

[Shaw66]

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

But this is the kind of stuff that I'm really skeptical about. Other than the citation to Football Outsiders, these statements are completely conclusory, with NO EVIDENCE to support them other than, maybe, Fahey's observations after film review. The guy has ZERO football experience, and yet we're supposed to believe his conclusions about Taylor's impact on the running game. He may be right, but I'm not going to believe it just because he said it.

[Foxx]

This argument is for another thread, but still I want to make the point.

 

TAYLOR DID NOT TAKE A CONTRACT CUT.

 

Taylor gave up about $10 million of guaranteed money so that he could become a free agent in two years instead of five years.

 

I know a professional agent. He has represented some of the biggest names in sports. I mean BIGGEST. I asked him which was a better deal for Tyrod, the one Tyrod had or the one he took in March. He said the one he got in March, no question, no question at all. He said he would have urged Tyrod to take the deal the Bills offered. Free agency in two years is worth MUCH more than the $10 million he gave up.

 

This idea that Tyrod gave in to the Bills because he had no options is just wrong. The Bills came to him with their hats in their hands looking for help. Tyrod gave them something they wanted in exchange for something he wanted - free agency.

 

If Tyrod plays the full season in 2017 and the Bills make the playoffs, Tyrod will get a new contract next year much better than the one he gave up last month. If that happens, everyone will look back and blame Whaley for renegotiating.

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

[Figster]

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

Buffalo led the league with a 5.3 per rush attempt wich is an indication the RB's despite being a run 1st O had plenty of room to roam.

 

I find this to be true, Taylor deserves credit for calling, participating in and opening up space for the run game in my humble opinion.

 

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

Go eat a cough drop,

[transplantbillsfan]

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

C'mon man... what a thoughtless response to a pretty thoughtful post, even if it's one I don't 100% agree with, either.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

I believe the "argument " here is that stats don't necessarily equal Wins.

As to the stats I got them from sites that I thought I posted links to.

[Shaw66]

I believe the "argument " here is that stats don't necessarily equal Wins.

As to the stats I got them from sites that I thought I posted links to.

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

[Big Gun]

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

It was 86 in 4th qtr last year. Ok I guess but needs to be better.

 

Some others completely random

 

Prescott 106.4

Stafford 86.1

Ryan 97

Bortles 82.9

Osweilier 83.5

Rodgers 114.4

Dalton 78.7

Luck 107.5

Tannehill 92.3

Siemian 101.9

[RayFinkle]

There's an actual name for this kind of logical fallacy.

 

I can't think of the name right now, though.

 

Anyone...?

 

 

Besides, did I post an actual assessment by him of Taylor? Do you believe he skews his data because he's enamored with Taylor?

It is possible to "cook" your data to tell the story you want in almost any situation. That being said, since this analysis wasn't about Tyrod, but rather the league as a whole, it is interesting to see where Tyrod stacks up.

 

The obvious issue with this post is, without seeing the rest of the data, it is tough to get a feel for it's accuracy. As an example, if Blane Gabbert is consistently rated higher than Matty Ice or other Probowl QBs, there is likely an issue with how the data is being presented.

[Shaw66]

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

I agree with you, at least for now. If the Bills had a true franchise QB and they weren't winning, I wouldn't be looking to unload him. But that's not where the Bills are. There are real questions about whether the Bills can win with Taylor.

 

But you don't help your credibility by supporting your argument with stats that aren't true. If you think Taylor isn't a winner, that's a legitimate opinion and there's some evidence to support it. But when you say his 4th quarter passer rating was 65 when it was 90, I have to wonder if your opinion is based on anything real.

It was 86 in 4th qtr last year. Ok I guess but needs to be better.

 

Some others completely random

 

Prescott 106.4

Stafford 86.1

Ryan 97

Bortles 82.9

Osweilier 83.5

Rodgers 114.4

Dalton 78.7

Luck 107.5

Tannehill 92.3

Siemian 101.9

Right. That's exactly what I said. His 4th quarter passer rating isn't bad; it's right around his passer rating for the season - a little below in each of the last two seasons. The problem is that the really good QBs, the guys many people think are special, have BETTER passer ratings in the fourth quarter than they average for the season.

[hondo in seattle]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

Edited May 5, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[Figster]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

We all do,

 

good post...

[Meathead]

ohhhhhhh

 

The PASSES are behind the LOS...that makes more sense lol.

 

lmao

 

hes not such a great thrower when hes behind the los but when hes running downfield he can really uncork it

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Lol.... Tyrod Taylor - the worst two time probowl QB nominee in NFL history

 

3time ACC champion and ACC player of the year "sucked in college" too.

 

The anti TT crowd can't accept he might just be 'an ok NFL QB'

Edited May 5, 2017 by Over 28 years of fanhood

[Shaw66]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

I agree that the Bills need more yards per game passing, but it's hard to fault the QB when the game plan is to throw fewer than 25 times per game.

 

Some people will argue (they always do) that he isn't asked to throw more because the more he throws, the worse he gets. However, the data doesn't support that, either. Some of his best games (and some of his worst) were when he threw over 30.

[Figster]

I agree that the Bills need more yards per game passing, but it's hard to fault the QB when the game plan is to throw fewer than 25 times per game.

 

Some people will argue (they always do) that he isn't asked to throw more because the more he throws, the worse he gets. However, the data doesn't support that, either. Some of his best games (and some of his worst) were when he threw over 30.

Overall Taylor has lacked the amount of practice and game reps in the passing game to gel properly with his supporting cast in my humble opinion.