Things Taylor did on the field in 2016 that kept him around

[FireChan]

The elephant in the room is scheme

 

Rex coached this defense into the ground....it was also very undiciplined watching lots of TIVO where the D was committing penalties to keep opponents offensive drive's going.

 

Does the switch make to a 4/3 make a immediate improvement? Maybe

Maybe not.

[jeffismagic]

The elephant in the room is scheme

 

Rex coached this defense into the ground....it was also very undiciplined watching lots of TIVO where the D was committing penalties to keep opponents offensive drive's going.

 

Does the switch make to a 4/3 make a immediate improvement? Maybe

 

I think it makes the defensive line better. But it remains to be seen how our linebackers and backfield adapts.

[transplantbillsfan]

I think McDermott has proven with elite talent he can do well. Bills don't have that on defense at the moment.

Wait... Hughes, Dareus, Kyle Williams, Micah Hyde, Darby... maybe Ragland and Lawson...

 

All those guys have been pretty close to Elite players recently... heck, toss Alexander in there last year, too.

 

What do you think we have on this defense? Scrubs?

Edited March 17, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[FireChan]

Wait... Hughes, Dareus, Kyle Williams, Micah Hyde, Darby... maybe Ragland and Lawson...

 

All those guys have been pretty close to Elite players recently... heck, toss Alexander in there last year, too.

 

What do you think we have on this defense? Scrubs?

RAGLAND? LAWSON?

Edited March 17, 2017 by FireChan

[jeffismagic]

Wait... Hughes, Dareus, Kyle Williams, Micah Hyde, Darby... maybe Ragland and Lawson...

 

All those guys have been pretty close to Elite players recently... heck, toss Alexander in there last year, too.

 

What do you think we have on this defense? Scrubs?

 

Hughes has been very good before. Not recently.

 

Kyle was elite, no longer. Age takes a toll.

 

Micah Hyde elite? Solid to good

 

Darby? No.

 

Ragland. No and he is coming off an ACL

 

Shaq was nothing special last year. He didn't look any better than Cleveland's 2nd rounder.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

Buffalo finished 19th in defense last year and Carolina finished 20th. But Bills defensive line has Kyle Williams who is in rapid decline.

Rapid decline?

 

What the hell are you talking about?

 

Kyle was fantastic last year and showed no signs of slowing down.

[jeffismagic]

Rapid decline?

 

What the hell are you talking about?

 

Kyle was fantastic last year and showed no signs of slowing down.

 

He flashed on a few plays here and there but overall he is nowhere near as good as he was a few years ago.

 

Still better than Washington but Bills D Line is a shell of its former self.

Edited March 17, 2017 by jeffismagic

[transplantbillsfan]

RAGLAND? LAWSON?

They're on our team, right?

[jeffismagic]

They're on our team, right?

 

You can be hopeful for them but they are a bunch of questions at this point. Ragland was drafted for a 3/4 defense, had questions about playing 3 downs in the draft, and suffered a serious ACL injury. Anything he does is a bonus.

 

Shaq looked ok but showed nothing special yet.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

 

He flashed on a few plays here and there but overall he is nowhere near as good as he was a few years ago.

 

Still better than Washington but Bills D Line is a shell of its former self.

I'm thinking we may be surprised at how much of that is up to Rex' system. None of the pass rushers were the same. I thought Kyle looked great last year.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

Hughes has been very good before. Not recently.

 

Kyle was elite, no longer. Age takes a toll.

 

Micah Hyde elite? Solid to good

 

Darby? No.

 

Ragland. No and he is coming off an ACL

 

Shaq was nothing special last year. He didn't look any better than Cleveland's 2nd rounder.

Whatever dude... keep those low expectations so you won't be disappointed.

 

Anti-homers are as bad as homers.

[jeffismagic]

Whatever dude... keep those low expectations so you won't be disappointed.

 

Anti-homers are as bad as homers.

 

We just have a different meaning for elite. When I use the term I think of special talents that create huge problems for the offense. You are using it to mean good or serviceable.

[Bill_with_it]

In 5 starts, 8 total games....not bad for a depth WR.

He said great, double it for the season and its still not great.

[FireChan]

They're on our team, right?

Close to elite players....Ragland and Lawson.

 

What does that mean. How was Ragland and/or Shaq "close to elite" last season?

[Real McClappy]

CoT.

 

Tyrod makes the running game. It's not the power blockers and Shady.

 

Bills don't pass the ball because they don't want to.

 

Bills put up points. All Tyrod. Not the offensive gameplan, offensive line, running backs or Shady or Sammy

 

Tyrod took a paycut because he wants more weapons, not because no one else wanted him.

 

Tyrod can't hit a slant pass because two different offensive coordinators decided not to use it in the gameplan.

 

Tyrod needs all-pro WR 1, WR 2, RB, TE, TE2, offensive line at every position. If he doesn't get that his results are not valid.

Winning post of the thread.

So, this place isn't exactly "home," yet. Still weird being displaced.

 

I figured I'd introduce myself in the manner in which everybody over at BBMB knew me... as a bit of a Taylor homer. But really, at this point, that's stretching the truth.

 

I'll just start ONE Taylor thread. I know how much the people on this board don't like repeated threads, so here's one, long explosion of Taylor fun.

 

I'm prepared to be pounced on.

 

I intended to post some images throughout... stills of certain plays, but I have no idea how to do that here.

 

So...

 

 

I like Tyrod Taylor. I still do. But I'll say this, I fell off the wagon of thinking he's the long term answer and more than anything, I think he's a bridge QB for a few years with the opportunity to change my mind, which is exactly why I absolutely LOVE the restructured contract.

 

His 4 game stretch beginning with Cincy and ending with Pittsburgh was incredibly discouraging. His game against Miami helped rebuild at least a little hope, though.

 

Regardless, I will say this, there are some areas of Taylor's game where I actually saw noticeable improvement over 2015. And some of those are what give me hope.

 

For example, I don't know how it's been over here, but over at BBMB, some folks were hypercritical about Taylor throwing over the middle; whether there's an argument of frequency or effectiveness, he just doesn't cut it.

 

First of all, if you're one of those concerned about the intermediate middle in particular

 

*According to PFF*

2015- 10/18 for 187 yards. 1 TD and 1 INT. Passer Rating of 87. 4.7% of total passes to intermediate middle

2016- 16/25 for 261 yards. 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 125.6. 5.7% of total passes to intermediate middle.

 

Did he improve? A 1% increase in terms of the amount he passed to the intermediate middle might be negligible, but it's clear he was monumentally more efficient as a passer to the intermediate middle. And the types of throws were more of the typical NFL intermediate middle throws with more crossing routes than 2015 (thank you Lynn... ?), although there were still plenty of those comeback routes or stop and turn routes Roman focused on. 3 specific plays I can recall (and I'd post the still images, but don't know how), include a nice little crossing pattern to Tate vs. Oakland where Taylor actually clears out the middle of the field by looking to the left before going back to the right to make the pass, a 2nd and 4 crossing pattern to Powell vs. Arizona, and a super impressive 22 yard pass directly over the middle to Goodwin to convert a 3rd and 21 vs. Cleveland.

 

​(Tangential to that last play, in his 2 years of playing, one thing Taylor is proving he's very good at is converting 3rd and long plays... he's been a top 5-10 QB at that 2 years in a row.)

 

So, back to that middle of the field in general thing. Luckily, ESPN does their own "splits" to certain sections of the field, and one of those is the "middle," which I would assume is between the hashmarks. I decided to take 11 of the most promising young QBs in the NFL who are likely the future at the QB position. I'm not doing every QB... it's just a pain. But I think anyone would agree there are plenty of promising young guys on this list, and these are the guys who comprise the future of the NFL. I included Luck, Newton, Rodgers, Mariota, Winston, Wilson, Tannehill, Cousins, Stafford, Ryan, Carr... and Taylor.

 

I used ESPN's splits and included:

-total % of throws to the "middle" when it comes to total throws

-% completions on those throws

-YPA on those throws

-TD passes over the middle

-INTs over the middle

-Passer Rating over the middle

 

 

Can you guess who's who?

 

QB 1: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating

QB 2: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating

QB 3: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating

QB 4: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating

QB 5: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating

QB 6: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating

QB 7: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating

QB 8: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating

QB 9: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating

QB10: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating

QB11: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating

QB12: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating

 

 

Which one is Taylor?

 

Who can find Rodgers?

 

Wilson?

 

There's one guy who throws significantly more over the middle than any of those guys, but anyone notice that passes to the middle for NFL QBs are relatively insignificant (in terms of % of passes) to all the other throws on the NFL field?

 

If you want to cheat and not guess, scroll down to the bottom.

 

 

There are some who argue that YAC is a problem with Taylor as a QB in general and it's a big reason he can't operate effectively out of the pocket as a passer, particularly throwing over the middle.. The general criticism is that it's on Taylor that the Bills are so poor in YAC because Taylor doesn't put the ball in places where WRs can gain any extra yardage.

 

I figured, why not put it to the test?

 

I started with the plan to do the whole season, but after doing the first 3 games and realizing time was an issue (wish I had more of it), I decided to jump to what I thought was his worst 4 game stretch. What I did was just rewatch the completions for ball placement to see how many of his completions were poorly placed and left yardage on the field. This is more about ball placement than accuracy... and yes, I think the 2 should be examined separately because accuracy would include all those incompletions. But there seems to be this general belief by some that Taylor's WRs were somehow always bailing him out and that Taylor is responsible for leaving yards on the field.

 

Well, in those 7 games (BALT, NYJ, ARI, CIN, JAX, OAK, PITT), Taylor completed 111 passes.

 

Only 7 of those passes were so poorly placed that they left potential yardage on the field.

 

1- A high pass to Clay on 3rd down in the Ravens game

2- A 3rd down pass to Woods in the Ravens game

3- A 2nd down pass to Goodwin in the Cardinals game

4- A 1st down pass that was low to a wide open Woods on the sideline in the Cardinals game

5- A 3rd down and 1 to Harvin in the Bengals game that was a little behind him... he was gonna get clobbered, anyway.

6- A 1st down pass to Clay that was a little behind him in the middle and really didn't have much chance for YAC... in fact, the chance for that YAC may have been to the middle, where the ball was thrown.

7- A 3rd down pass to Goodwin around the sideline that was a 1st down conversion, anyway

 

That's really it. You can be unhappy about ball placement on other passes, but if you rewatch, you'll see that really only 6.3% of all of Taylor's completed passes in 7 games (which included a number of really bad games from him) actually left yardage on the field. I'd love to show you images of some of these plays, but don't know how and can't... sorry.

Actual problems were the offense, which relied mainly on sideline throws and WRs who ran comeback or hook routes and weren't set up in positions due to the offense itself to get much YAC.

 

Taylor didn't control the routes that were run, and the routes weren't designed for YAC. If Taylor's still around in 2017, ball placement really shouldn't be an issue assuming Dennison's offense is designed to produce it, although if you look at the "middle of the field" throwing, it doesn't seem like the offense Taylor has operated in has been throwing insanely fewer times to the middle.

 

So, then we get to how well Taylor operates in tight spaces and anticipates throws. I'm grouping these 2 together because I think there's a single stat that demonstrates whether he does or does not do this very well: Red Zone passing, which you'll find easily in the situational stats on NFL.com.

 

Why? Because as you get inside the opponents 20, you have 30 yards or less vertically to work with and you'll have a more crowded area to work with. You'll be forced to throw the ball more into tight windows and you'll be forced to anticipate your passes more as you'll have less time to get it to WRs who will naturally be given less of a cushion to work with by DBs and LBs.

 

According to NFL.com

2015- 17/31, 90 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT. Passer Rating of 86.4

2016- 30/50, 240 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 111.7

Adding this on, according to http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing, Taylor actually has the 6th highest Passer Rating and 10th highest completion % inside the 20.

Did he improve? I think this is an obvious yes. And 2016 wasn't a small sample size, either, as he attempted 19 more passes inside the opponents 20 than 2015. And I went back and watched every TD pass and the vast majority involve a pass from Taylor where a guy is not open yet and/or not looking at the ball yet and/or going through a tight window.

 

 

Something else that I think may have seriously contributed to Taylor's regression was the revolving door at WR. In terms of the number of games missed by only #1 and #2 WRs during the NFL season for each team going by depth charts:

 

0 games missed

*Playoff Teams*

Seattle

Oakland

Miami

*Non-Playoff Teams*

Carolina

Tennessee

 

1-4 games missed

*Playoff Teams*

Detroit (1)

NYG (2)

Houston (2)

New England (4) 5 if you take Edleman, Amendola, and Hogan as a group

Atlanta (4)

Green Bay (4)

Dallas (4)

Kansas City (4)

*Non-Playoff Teams*

Denver (1)

Washington (1)

Baltimore (2)

New Orleans (2)

Arizona (3) Floyd cut

Philadelphia

 

 

5-8 games missed

*Playoff Teams*

NONE

*Non-Playoff Teams*

Cincy (5)

Jax (5)

Minny (6)

Cleveland (6)

San Fran (7)

Indy (8)

 

9+ games missed

*Playoff Teams*

Pittsburgh (10) Heyward-Bey is listed as the #2 even though some might argue it was Coates, in which case it'd be 9

*Non-Playoff Teams*

Chicago (11)

Tampa Bay (11)

Buffalo (11)

NYJ (14

San Diego (15) Mainly due to Allen's injury. If you consider Inman the #2 as opposed to Benjamin, it's 13.

 

 

Yet, despite a depleted WR corps, Taylor seemed to improve in his "clutchness" to some degree, at least. Yeah, to this day he's still only credited with 2 4th quarter comebacks (Ten, Jax), but actually watching the Seattle and 2nd Miami games, we saw a QB who in those moments belonged and actually seemed to elevate his team. Taylor (and the team) were robbed in different ways (refs, coaching, bad defense, bad breaks) of those 2 game winning drives. Regardless, Taylor's passer rating with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half still noticeably improved from 2015 (61.0) to 2016 (85.2). That's a significant improvement. And with 66 passes in 2016 and 53 in 2015, you can't call it a small sample size.

 

Even within the game, those plays that are most "clutch" are the 3rd down plays many were critical of with Taylor from 2015, when he was at the bottom of the league with a 37.2% conversion % on those 3rd down passes. In 2016, he improved to 14th in the NFL and improved by more than 3% to 41.5%.

 

If you factor in his scrambles on 3rd down, which are passing plays, but Taylor decides to tuck and run instead for whatever reason, Taylor was 7/14 and bumps up to 42.4% in terms of 3rd down conversions in the passing game.

 

And maybe you have a problem with that last statement I made. Why didn't I include all his 3rd down runs rather than just scrables? Well, because there's a difference betwen a design run and a scramble. A scramble indicates your OC is asking you to drop back for a pass. He's putting some amount of faith in your decision making there. The designed runs are usually option runs or QB draws Roman calls and they're pretty simple, but sometimes involve a read or two.

 

Roman & called 43 designed runs this year. 47 of Taylors other 90 runs, therefore, were scrambles in plays designed as passes.

 

(If you're wondering where those other 5 rushes are that Taylor is credited for, those were 5 kneeldowns for -6 yards, which means Taylor's actual rushing stats on the year were 90 rushes for 586 yards for 6.5 YPC)

 

Taylor scored 4 of his 6 rushing TDs on those designed runs, but he actually "only" gained about 4.9 yards a carry on them.

 

Now, if we consider that Taylor, who has a skillset unique to the majority of QBs in the NFL (Newton, Wilson, Rodgers are all exceptions with a couple others like Alex Smith), many of these other QBs (Brady, Rivers, Peyton, Eli, etc.) aren't going to be scrambling and/or scrambling for nearly as many yards on these plays where he breaks pressure... and in fact, these QBs would often go down for a sack. Yes, they'll also find the open man down the field sometimes that Taylor doesn't, but that's really already accounted for in all of their numbers, anyway.

 

So, the way I think of the passing game and vs. the running aspect of Taylor's game in 2016, this is how I see them:

 

3620 yards passing & 223 yards rushing

7YPA

20 passing TDs & 4 rushing TDs

Four 300 yard passing games (Jets, @ Seattle, Pitt, Miami)

 

 

Yeah yeah yeah, I'm pretending that all of those designed passes are plays where he passes instead and gets the same results and adding those stats to the Jets game he was benched for in Week 17.

 

On the 47 plays in 2016 that are designed passes where, whether by force or choice (and a ton of them were by force), Taylor scrambles, he gains 371 yards. That means on all of those designed passes where he's forced to survey the field for an open WR and make a choice on who to throw it to (or scramble), Taylor is gaining more yardage than his YPA (7.9 on scrambles vs. 6.9 YPA). Actually, he's gaining more yards on those passing plays as a scrambler than all but 4 other NFL QBs did in 2016 as passers: Prescott, Cousins, Brady, & Ryan.

 

 

What that means is that everyone saying that Taylor running on those passing plays is a bad thing overall is just really not true. It might be on a few plays here and there, but overall, Taylor as a scrambler gains more yards on those plays he chooses to scramble than every other NFL QB did (except the 4 guys listed above) when they passed.

Those are the objective things.

 

Subjectively, I can say that watching all of his scrambles, he really was running for his life a whole lot and made some absolutely crazy plays that would have been sacks if not for his own athleticism. Mills really was a turnstile... I can't believe he's going to be back.

 

 

Anyway, I still have hope Taylor can be our long term answer, even though I no longer have any confidence he will. At the very least, he sure is exciting to watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*For those who had the patience to read all of that... bravo!* :-)

 

KEY TO QB PASSING OVER THE MIDDLE

Rodgers: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating

Newton: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating

Mariota: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating

Carr: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating

Taylor: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating

Tannehill: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating

Wilson: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating

Cousins: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating

Stafford: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating

Luck: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating

Winston: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating

Ryan: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating

Holy hell Transplant you bring all this here now? You got your wish man.

 

Your man crush is here to stay, your not swaying anybody.

 

Your still De Niro from move The Fan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJhwzOqqdqU

Edited March 17, 2017 by Real McCoy

[John from Riverside]

Rapid decline?

 

What the hell are you talking about?

 

Kyle was fantastic last year and showed no signs of slowing down.

How about this

 

i have no problem saying that we have no idea what we have in Lawson and Ragland if some here will admit that Rex and his 3/4 scheme and bad communication problems on the field made the talent look bad

 

Just about everybody played worse under Rex tenure here.....

[transplantbillsfan]

 

We just have a different meaning for elite. When I use the term I think of special talents that create huge problems for the offense. You are using it to mean good or serviceable.

No.

 

I'm not.

[Rochesterfan]

Clock is ticking for everyone.

 

Clearly you don't have a clue how much longer Taylor will be in Buffalo, though.

 

Remember how stupidly adamant you were that he'd be gone and how giddy and excited you were about insulting those of us who thought he'd be back?

 

 

You can "lol" all you want about Taylor vs Wentz. Taylor outplayed Wentz in 2016, so I don't know why you would arrogantly call people out if they chose Taylor over him. Wentz might very well have an RG3 nosedive. Who knows?

 

 

I believe I remember him repeatedly saying that TT would not be back on the original contract and that if they cut the contract he would be back.

 

Look Crusher and you are on two opposite ends of a line with the truth planted firmly in between.

 

TT does some good things and many things that he needs to improve. Those things that you and Thurm argue over and over about are prime examples - they are things that the GM, both former HCs and both former OC's said he needed to improve on and he did not.

 

Now those things matter very little because we have a new staff and a new game plan. What do I expect - I think there are going to be plays where they roll TT out and he makes some plays, but there are also going to be way to many times that he struggles in the pocket.

 

What I love about the deal is they have created a new lower priced 1 year deal and the ability if TT either improves or his athletic ability is good enough to push the offense they can bring him back for year 2 and work on a new contract. The fact that the contract automatically voids after year 2 means that no matter what this is a 1-2 year plan with the Bills looking to draft or develop for the future.

 

Look I expected TT to be back and I am not surprised, but I am so glad they got the deal reduced significantly. He is an amazing athlete, but he is not a very good QB. What draws me to that conclusion is what happened after they eliminated Roman - Lynn came on the local radio stations and talked about how he was going to work week after week with TT and find and call plays that TT was comfortable with and what we saw was a change back to a huge percentage of sideline out patterns and comeback/stop routes with little Yards after Catch. Throws that a QB can make because he can see the WR is wide open.

 

Roman was trying to grow and develop TT - you saw at at the end of 2015 with the patterns and throws after the Bills were eliminated. He was trying to open the offense up and in 2016 the offense did not function against Baltimore and although it produced against NYJ - it was enough that Rex moved on. The route tree and the throws were simplified and TT had some good games and some bad games, but nothing that screams long term starter.

What kept him around was the 10 mil paycut.

Exactly - this is the only reason he is here.

Edited March 18, 2017 by Rochesterfan

[jeffismagic]

No.

 

I'm not.

 

There are 11 starters on defense. If the Bills are elite at all the positions you mentioned I assume you think the defense will finish in the top 10 for points and yards this year?

Edited March 18, 2017 by jeffismagic

[papazoid]

bills offense scored the 7th MOST points in league.

 

if bills defense gave up the 7th LEAST points in league.......we wouldn't be having this conversation.