Rex's D

[JohnC]

 

Why watch, then?

Are you suggesting that if you are critical of the HC you are less entitled to watch and are less of a fan? If you are saying that you are making a dumb comment.

[The Big Cat]

Are you suggesting that if you are critical of the HC you are less entitled to watch and are less of a fan? If you are saying that you are making a dumb comment.

 

Well, I'm not saying that. At all. I said literally nothing about entitlement.

[GG]

Yeah but injuries and Brandon Spikes bro.

 

I don't think I've been silent about Spikes' role as the x-factor in Schwartz's defense. It a completely different game without him in the middle on 1st & 2nd downs. It's not as simple as squawking that Bills had nearly the entire defense in '15.

 

That's why I'm urging people to rewatch the 2014 games.

[FireChan]

 

I don't think I've been silent about Spikes' role as the x-factor in Schwartz's defense. It a completely different game without him in the middle on 1st & 2nd downs. It's not as simple as squawking that Bills had nearly the entire defense in '15.

 

That's why I'm urging people to rewatch the 2014 games.

I was just poking fun at you.

 

I don't buy the Spikes' angle, just because he's never been great at coverage, and pass defense is where the '15 defense really struggled. He may have had some synergistic/leadership and run defense help in '14, but that's about it, IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Players make plays. Don't blame the coach if the player can't beat the guy in front of him.

 

And every bit of analysis I've read/listened to, particularly from former o-lineman, clearly states that the tackles were obscenely overmatched on Sunday. Your circular reasoning does nothing to refute that.

In fact, let's ask straight up: is Mario as good as Ware? Is Hughes as good as Miller? No. Neither.

 

Total straw as a response to my post. You denigrated Vollmer and Cannon as having "no business being out there". I point out that they started extensively this season thus were a part of the Pats winning record, and in fact have played for the 4 and 6 years. Who is "blaming the coach"? That is a total non-sequitor. The point is, these guys are NFL starters who have been part of a winning team's success.

 

If they were totally overmatched on Sunday, that may speak to the exceptional quality of the players they faced, but it doesn't mean they "have no business being out there". That is in no way circular reasoning. It's pointing out that you're trying to make your case with a total exaggeration.

 

That said, to your point: whether the player can beat the guy in front of him depends upon 3 things: 1) the player 2) the guy in front of him 3) the scheme thus the role the player is expected to execute on that play. Asserting that 3) doesn't matter doesn't give you an aura of knowledgability any more than claiming a tackle who's started on a championship team >4 years "has no business being out there" does.

 

I'd be happy to see "every bit of that analysis" from former O-linemen. Feel free to link - if any of those guys claimed Vollmer and Cannon "had no business being out there" I will be most surprised. Overmatched, yes, if one team is red-hot and ready, even a great player can be overmatched and if a great player faces a good player, likewise.

 

I could get into nuts and bolts comparing Mario and Ware and Miller (apples and oranges in lots of ways, but all 3 are elite players); I'd like to feel a bit more confidence that I'm having a conversation and not a straw show here first.

[The Big Cat]

 

Total straw as a response to my post. You denigrated Vollmer and Cannon as having "no business being out there". I point out that they started extensively this season thus were a part of the Pats winning record, and in fact have played for the 4 and 6 years. Who is "blaming the coach"? That is a total non-sequitor. The point is, these guys are NFL starters who have been part of a winning team's success.

 

If they were totally overmatched on Sunday, that may speak to the exceptional quality of the players they faced, but it doesn't mean they "have no business being out there". That is in no way circular reasoning. It's pointing out that you're trying to make your case with a total exaggeration.

 

That said, to your point: whether the player can beat the guy in front of him depends upon 3 things: 1) the player 2) the guy in front of him 3) the scheme thus the role the player is expected to execute on that play. Asserting that 3) doesn't matter doesn't give you an aura of knowledgability any more than claiming a tackle who's started on a championship team >4 years "has no business being out there" does.

 

I'd be happy to see "every bit of that analysis" from former O-linemen. Feel free to link - if any of those guys claimed Vollmer and Cannon "had no business being out there" I will be most surprised. Overmatched, yes, if one team is red-hot and ready, even a great player can be overmatched and if a great player faces a good player, likewise.

 

I could get into nuts and bolts comparing Mario and Ware and Miller (apples and oranges in lots of ways, but all 3 are elite players); I'd like to feel a bit more confidence that I'm having a conversation and not a straw show here first.

 

I belive they were Ross' exact words: http://www.rosstucker.com/wp/podcasts/ross-tucker-football-podcast/

And the coaching comment was directed at most of what the 'analysis' in this thread is: a backdoor critique of Rex's system.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

 

We will have to disagree about the Giants game.

 

A week later the familiar Eagles totally embarrassed the Giants with a true wide nine, press coverage gameplan.

 

The Pats game was annoying but Rex has perfected losing close games to the Pats so until proven otherwise he appears satisfied with losing by 10 points or less to his master.

 

Losing that Giants game was the first real travesty of "the year that Rex killed".

 

The offense lost the Giants game, NOT the defense. It was pitiful, embarrassing, unimaginative and uninspired.

[The Big Cat]

 

The offense lost the Giants game, NOT the defense. It was pitiful, embarrassing, unimaginative and uninspired.

 

In fact, the defense was one whiffed tackle away from having one of its best games of the year.

Linebacker had a guy pinned to the sideline, dead to rights behind the LOS, and whiffed. Players make plays.

[GG]

I was just poking fun at you.

 

I don't buy the Spikes' angle, just because he's never been great at coverage, and pass defense is where the '15 defense really struggled. He may have had some synergistic/leadership and run defense help in '14, but that's about it, IMO.

 

And that's the thing. He wasn't a factor at all in pass D on third downs in '14, but his value was on 1st & 2nd downs. Last year, teams would try to beat Bills DL rush by running into vacated space of the aggressive DLs. But Spikes was usually there to clean up. He was great in run support like that and held his ground pretty well. That also gave Schwartz the leeway to just set the DL free, knowing that Spikes was back there to cover up. Look at the dispersal of Bills' DL sacks on 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs - and that will give you another data point of how critical Spikes was.

 

Yet in looking at many plays without Spikes on the field, I saw Brown & Bradham make the same mistakes they were making this year. So yeah, without Spikes, those guys were exposed the same way that Bradham & Kiko were exposed in '13.

 

That's why it's not as simple to say that Rex ruined a great defense.

[FireChan]

 

And that's the thing. He wasn't a factor at all in pass D on third downs in '14, but his value was on 1st & 2nd downs. Last year, teams would try to beat Bills DL rush by running into vacated space of the aggressive DLs. But Spikes was usually there to clean up. He was great in run support like that and held his ground pretty well. That also gave Schwartz the leeway to just set the DL free, knowing that Spikes was back there to cover up. Look at the dispersal of Bills' DL sacks on 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs - and that will give you another data point of how critical Spikes was.

 

Yet in looking at many plays without Spikes on the field, I saw Brown & Bradham make the same mistakes they were making this year. So yeah, without Spikes, those guys were exposed the same way that Bradham & Kiko were exposed in '13.

 

That's why it's not as simple to say that Rex ruined a great defense.

Link?

 

And I sorta see what you're saying right now. I wasn't thinking of the line running free on not obvious passing downs. But can you show me our nickel/dime sack % vs. our base?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

With virtually the same personnel (especially on the DL), the Bills D was #26 in 2012, #20 in 2013, #4 in 2014, and #15 in 2015.

 

Which year is the outlier? Kudos for Schwartz to get the max out of his players in 2014, but I think he would have gotten lit up this year.

 

I notice you're now using PPG, whereas in another thread (claiming this year as an anomaly and outlier for Rex) you were using YPG and could not seemingly be persuaded to acknowledge that PPG paint a different picture sometimes. So let's make that point that the Bills D was #22 (2012), 10 (2013), 4 (2014), and 19 (2015) in YPG. Please don't cherry-pick the statistic that best suits your point from thread to thread, unless you have a justifying reason.

 

Let's also make the point that the personnel was NOT "virtually the same". 2012 featured 3 of the 4 DLmen and Chris Kelsay at RDE; starting linebackers Nick Barnett, Kelvin Sheppard, Nigel Bradham ®/Arthur Moats. The secondary included Aaron Williams and Gilmore ® as CB and George Wilson and Byrd as safeties. 2013 brought Alan Branch/ Jerry Hughes (remember Hughes for Sheppard?) as LDE and Mario on the R where he prefers, Kiko ® in, Barnett out, Aaron Williams to safety where he's a stronger player. A lot of changes IMHO to claim "the personnel was virtually the same".

 

In 2012, they were 27th in T/G which suggests that one reason for the poor defensive performance may have been being put in a bad position by the O. A little further look says we were 29th in turnovers, 28th in fumbles. That said, nope, the D under Wannstache was not good either statistically or by the eyeball test. In 2013, the Pettine D cracked the top 10 in YPG which is a bit surprising since they sucked in run D, but they were #2 in the league in sacks and had the #4 D against the pass. So there were signs of significant improvement.

 

I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder. I would say that 2012, the personnel were significantly different. 1 of the 4 DL, 2 of the 3 LB, 1 of 2 CB and 1 of 2 safeties. That's a lot of changes to claim the personnel were "virtually the same". So can we agree to exclude 2012?

 

Let's look at 2013. Branch/Hughes so 4 of 4 DL; LB, Lawson, Alonso and Moats/Bradham; CB McKelvin and Gilmore, Safeties Williams and Byrd. I guess I'll go with similar enough. The D cracked the top 10 in YPG and were #2 in Sacks, #4 vs Pass. Some would call that good, but the team was built to sack the QB at the expense of run D.

 

2014 brought LB Bradham, Spikes, and Brown ®, Safeties Williams and Searcy. I'll go with "similar enough", but I note that Spikes was brought in to be a run-stuffer. The D was #4 overall in YPG and PPG, #1 in sacks, #3 in passing yards, but improved to #11 against the run.

 

The way I see it, there were a couple of key personnel changes to go along with scheme changes in 2014, mostly on the LB, that allowed the team to be more effective against the run to add to a strong passing D and raise the level of the D. It may well be that losing Spikes had a bigger effect in 2015 than was generally appreciated, and losing Searcy a bigger effect once we also lost Williams, but again, it looks like a scheme change had an impact in 2015.

 

It's always possible the D would have ultimately bombed this year under Schwartz without Spikes and Searcy/Williams and with all the injuries. It's also possible that Schwartz would have lobbied effectively "pick me up another run-stuffing MLB! Brown is not a MLB, not yet and maybe not never!" We'll never get to go back and play the 2015 season with Schwartz to do that experiment.

 

To me, it looks like the D changed personnel significantly to improve from 2012 to 2013, added the final pieces and perhaps a better scheme against the run to improve further in 2014, and then fell off a cliff in 2015. But again, I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder.

[Manther]

"We play New England for instance, we ran nothing but the defense that was played the year before. And you know, I knew better, I thought going in the first game, that is not how you play this guy."

I have a couple thoughts...

 

1. Regarding this statement above by Rex. I am glad he admitted the mistake, but, why would he not trust himself in week two? Our D was not good against NE the previous year. Imo one reason he was brought here was to beat BB, NE **, Brady**.

 

2. My concern is not how well the D played in the 2nd NE game. My concern is why did it play poor the following weeks?

I'm over all of this already.

 

Rex wants to make excuses for last year's team/defense good for him.

 

But I think it's pretty obvious he has next year to get this defense and team going and into the playoffs...If not he will be gone.

Agreed. Don't explain it.....prove it on the field next year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

I belive they were Ross' exact words: http://www.rosstucker.com/wp/podcasts/ross-tucker-football-podcast/

And the coaching comment was directed at most of what the 'analysis' in this thread is: a backdoor critique of Rex's system.

 

I guess as a lineman who could barely crack the lineup on 4 seasons of losing teams, and then couldn't crack the lineup at all in NE, he ought to know who "shouldn't be out there"?

Except, Belicheck had those two tackles out there this season and won just as he won 10 games in 2005 without Tucker out there

 

He seems to be packaging himself as a "media personality" so I guess he needs to say stuff to generate clicks, but I got no respect for that kind of thing from a bit-part former player on mostly bad teams. To say "those guys got their butts whupped out there that Sunday" is one thing. To say they "shouldn't be out there" is IMO, for someone from his level, over the line.

 

When you're responding to someone's post, the accepted belief is that you're responding to something they've said. For clarity, if you're making a generalized critique of the thread, it's helpful to say so - "I know this isn't the point you're making here - many seem to believe......" or the like.

 

And since the title of the thread is "Rex's D", yeah, I'd say it's on point to critique Rex's system. But the fact that it's a topic of discussion at all strongly implies that most of us agree, it's not just player-vs-player. System does matter.

[Manther]

This article reads as if a 13 year old wrote it.

 

Rex is a defensive genius. He will figure this thing out. That 2nd pats game was amazing.

 

Numbers will follow in time, patience is key.

 

 

 

Imo

My concern I why the D was very poor the weeks after the 2nd Pats game**

[The Big Cat]

 

I notice you're now using PPG, whereas in another thread (claiming this year as an anomaly and outlier for Rex) you were using YPG and could not seemingly be persuaded to acknowledge that PPG paint a different picture sometimes. So let's make that point that the Bills D was #22 (2012), 10 (2013), 4 (2014), and 19 (2015) in YPG. Please don't cherry-pick the statistic that best suits your point from thread to thread, unless you have a justifying reason.

 

Let's also make the point that the personnel was NOT "virtually the same". 2012 featured 3 of the 4 DLmen and Chris Kelsay at RDE; starting linebackers Nick Barnett, Kelvin Sheppard, Nigel Bradham ®/Arthur Moats. The secondary included Aaron Williams and Gilmore ® as CB and George Wilson and Byrd as safeties. 2013 brought Alan Branch/ Jerry Hughes (remember Hughes for Sheppard?) as LDE and Mario on the R where he prefers, Kiko ® in, Barnett out, Aaron Williams to safety where he's a stronger player. A lot of changes IMHO to claim "the personnel was virtually the same".

 

In 2012, they were 27th in T/G which suggests that one reason for the poor defensive performance may have been being put in a bad position by the O. A little further look says we were 29th in turnovers, 28th in fumbles. That said, nope, the D under Wannstache was not good either statistically or by the eyeball test. In 2013, the Pettine D cracked the top 10 in YPG which is a bit surprising since they sucked in run D, but they were #2 in the league in sacks and had the #4 D against the pass. So there were signs of significant improvement.

 

I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder. I would say that 2012, the personnel were significantly different. 1 of the 4 DL, 2 of the 3 LB, 1 of 2 CB and 1 of 2 safeties. That's a lot of changes to claim the personnel were "virtually the same". So can we agree to exclude 2012?

 

Let's look at 2013. Branch/Hughes so 4 of 4 DL; LB, Lawson, Alonso and Moats/Bradham; CB McKelvin and Gilmore, Safeties Williams and Byrd. I guess I'll go with similar enough. The D cracked the top 10 in YPG and were #2 in Sacks, #4 vs Pass. Some would call that good, but the team was built to sack the QB at the expense of run D.

 

2014 brought LB Bradham, Spikes, and Brown ®, Safeties Williams and Searcy. I'll go with "similar enough", but I note that Spikes was brought in to be a run-stuffer. The D was #4 overall in YPG and PPG, #1 in sacks, #3 in passing yards, but improved to #11 against the run.

 

The way I see it, there were a couple of key personnel changes to go along with scheme changes in 2014, mostly on the LB, that allowed the team to be more effective against the run to add to a strong passing D and raise the level of the D. It may well be that losing Spikes had a bigger effect in 2015 than was generally appreciated, and losing Searcy a bigger effect once we also lost Williams, but again, it looks like a scheme change had an impact in 2015.

 

It's always possible the D would have ultimately bombed this year under Schwartz without Spikes and Searcy/Williams and with all the injuries. It's also possible that Schwartz would have lobbied effectively "pick me up another run-stuffing MLB! Brown is not a MLB, not yet and maybe not never!" We'll never get to go back and play the 2015 season with Schwartz to do that experiment.

 

To me, it looks like the D changed personnel significantly to improve from 2012 to 2013, added the final pieces and perhaps a better scheme against the run to improve further in 2014, and then fell off a cliff in 2015. But again, I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder.

Could have called your challenge of Tucker's credibility from a mile away.

[Manther]

 

Actually when he started talking about the hybrid he was talking in general. He was very clear when he was talking about that game that they ran "nothing but last year's defense". Which just is not true.

 

As for the Schwartz D - maybe it would have fallen off this year... maybe it wouldn't. Nobody can know and the Rex defenders attempts to assert it would definitely so are frankly an attempt to distract from the fact that the defense did fall off a lot and did so under Rex Ryan.

 

Whatever defense he runs there is no excuse for Marcel Dareus dropping - EVER. We are paying the guy $100million to rush the passer and disrupt up front. Giving up two touchdowns to KC the week after we rattled Brady with Marcel dropping into coverage was the most soul destroying sight of the season.

1. Rex usually speaks in general terms. I hate it. Imo it shows lack of knowledge, preparation, direction and to quote Rex....things like that. I believe/guess his interviews had less specifics than not and everyone bought his used car salesman crap without having him explain his plans and specifics.

 

2. Agreed, I don't care what system you are gadgeting or trying to trick people with.....rush Dareus. Do it over and over and over again.

 

3. Slightly off topic, but, not quite. I will try to explain my thoughts, but, it might be hard. I don't understand NFL coaches that don't do what they do best until the other team consistently stops them. Instead they play chess and think the other coach will do "X" to stop what they do well, so, they don't do what they do best.

 

Marrone did this. Rex does this. Others do this too. It can be on a large game scale for example a team runs for 300 yards 3 weeks in a row, so, they come out throwing. Or it can be on 2nd and 1 on the goaline. Then they throw when they have been running so well all game. Sort of like the Seahawks last year in the Super Bowl.

 

I don't get why coaches try to show how great they are due to their egos by outsmarting people instead of showing it by winning. Sometimes winning is boring. Make them stop you because sometimes they never can.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Manther

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2. My concern is not how well the D played in the 2nd NE game. My concern is why did it play poor the following weeks?

Agreed. Don't explain it.....prove it on the field next year.

 

Hear, hear!!!! Now that part I hope we can all agree. Don't tell me how great it's gonna be, shut up, ball out, and prove it.

[FireChan]

Could have called your challenge of Tucker's credibility from a mile away.

Are you really shocked that when you made an appeal to authority, someone questioned that authority?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

that's a funny way to pit it! I'm on my phone so I can't make the strange faces.

 

Either way, I've seen enough of the systems and schemes he has used which seem to go against our strengths and rely too much on LB's that simply can't give what he needs.

 

It is getting harder and harder each year to keep investing so much in defense when this is becoming more and more an offensive league.

Agreed on the lb thing l..... Ironically on the later point two of the less prolific passing teams with stout defenses are the ones going to the dance Edited January 27, 2016 by over 20 years of fanhood

[boyst]

Agreed on the lb thing l..... Ironically on the later point two of the weaker passing teams with stout defenses are the ones going to the dance

that's true, the defense is important but you have to remember that the one who ends up scoring the most will win.