Astrobot Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 (edited) Running Back Evaluation (I'm posting this here because it's the wrong time of year for it, but in the light of the Bills' recent RB woes, it merits a look. Moderators, please feel free to move it after we discuss it.) In contrast to some recent years' drafts, the 2016 draft will feature some strong RBs coming from pro-style sets. It's not that we're devaluing running backs from spread offenses; we just prefer the skillsets of quite a number of RBs from NFL-style offenses. Storm Barrs-Woods' 7.1 yards per carry against AP-ranked teams for a spread offense is not as impressive to evaluators as James Connor's 6.9 for Pittsburgh. Second, any NFL GM will tell you they look closely at the RB's blocking ability. This skill is receiving a closer look from our analysts this year. Fred Jackson, age 34 1/2, has been around the Bills for extra years due to his superb blocking ability. Paul James of Rutgers is a very good blocker (and unfortunately will need to be this year). A third aspect in evaluating a college RB's talent as it translates to the NFL is his performance against the more-talented teams. Yards per carry against AP-ranked teams should carry more weight. Our analysts took this into account last year, and will continue to do so in 2016. James Conner of Pittsburgh averaged 6.9 yards a carry against AP teams last year, and our #1 RB, Ezekiel Elliott averaged a whopping 8.7 when Ohio State played AP-ranked teams. Fourth, We've been asked if character plays into a college player's positional ranking on DraftTek. The answer is, we look at the situation on a case-by-case basis. Poor decisions that are repeated should affect ranking more than a first-time offense. A felony charge should weigh more than a misdemeanor, A game suspension should be taken with a grain of salt compared to being suspended from a team. Leon Allen's intoxication charges might get him suspended for Week 1, but he's on the Senior Bowl Watch List. Marshaun Coprich, RB at Illinois State, was suspended with a felony distribution charge (10 to 30 grams of marijuana). He's been taken off our rankings entirely. Fifth, Another factor in weighing RB performance is the offensive line blocking for him. When watching film, watch to see if the highlight-reel runs were actually a result of the O-Line creating space. Is there tape of the line creating a sliver of a gap and the RB hitting the hole immediately, keeping his pad level low, and making something out of nothing? That player is ranked higher in our book. Johnathan Gray will put up bigger numbers because of an improved OL at Texas, but will his skills change as a result? This year, Jordan Howard will play behind the OL that sprang Tevin Coleman, our third-ranked RB of 2015. Is Darius Jackson's 4.8 rushing average more impressive to you because his OL, racked with injuries, was ranked last in their league in almost every category? Paul James of Rutgers will have a tougher year with only one returning starter on his O-Line. Still another aspect of RB evaluation that's not in the RB's control is depth chart. Has the player been the "bell cow" for three years? Or has he recently inherited the starting role because a previously-successful RB moved on to the NFL? Certainly you'd like to see a body of work from your drafted running back, but would you ignore a single year's performance? Aaron Green of TCU will profit from BJ Catalon leaving for the NFL, even though he wasn't drafted. Versatility is huge. Can the RB play on special teams? Can he catch smoothly out of the backfield? Could he play some H-back to create mismatches? Devon Johnson of Marshall was a TE for two years before switching to RB, played some H-back last year, has a 20+ ypc receiving average, a 8.58 ypc rushing average, played two years effectively on special teams, and has size and quick enough feet to block. Freedom from injury is overvalued, but a history of injury drops a player in positional evaluation. Brandon Bourbon had an injury-plagued career at Kansas, then tore his ACL in 2014. He's transferred to Washburn, but the injury history follows him despite the productive year he may have there. Rutgers' Paul James broke his fibula in 2013, then had an ACL tear in 2014; he's a tremendous runner when healthy, but he'll be available on Day 3 or UDFA due to his injury history and aforementioned inexperienced line. Look here for DraftTek's ranked list of RBs. Don't be surprised if a team near you picks one. --Astro Edited August 20, 2015 by Astrobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Great post! Thanks so much Astro! CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 #zeke4heisman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Yep, there is a lot of Heisman talk for Ezekiel Elliott. He is at the top of our list. You just wonder, though, if you put some of the others on Ohio State's team, with their OL and weaponry, does that player get the Heisman hype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I cant wait to read your reports on draft eligible QBs! CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Yep, there is a lot of Heisman talk for Ezekiel Elliott. He is at the top of our list. You just wonder, though, if you put some of the others on Ohio State's team, with their OL and weaponry, does that player get the Heisman hype? That's where the film study comes in. Find those plays where the holes aren't as clean and determine whether or not he's reading the blocks correctly. Reading the "hats." Is he decisive and does he have the athletic ability/moves to be able to adjust in tight spots? Does he have bad tendencies? Does he rely on his physical abilities too much, which won't be as advantageous in the NFL? I haven't watched Elliot specifically, but if he's getting 8.7 ypc against top teams, he must be doing something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 (edited) Yep, there is a lot of Heisman talk for Ezekiel Elliott. He is at the top of our list. You just wonder, though, if you put some of the others on Ohio State's team, with their OL and weaponry, does that player get the Heisman hype? it will be interesting because urban is not known for pounding the rock with one guy. Carlos Hyde was his first ever 1000 Yd RB. He's going to spread the ball around, including designed QB runs, which will hurt Elliott's individual numbers. And the Heisman is voted on before the post season, which is when he really exploded last year. YPC likely inflated by some of the 80+ yd tds he had. Chubb at UGA is the guy I bet takes it home. But I love everything about Elliott. Edited August 20, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Thank you for the informative post Astro, however, is RB really that great of a draft need? I wouldn't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Thank you for the informative post Astro, however, is RB really that great of a draft need? I wouldn't think so. We do have Shady (who has a lot of treadwear) and Karlos. That's decent lightning and thunder. Also a popular 34 1/2 year old who's a great blocker, but is injured. a fumbler who averaged 3.5 ypc last year, but is injured. and a Boobie, but is injured. who is a great guy but is Karlos. Who is injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 We do have Shady (who has a lot of treadwear) and Karlos. That's decent lightning and thunder. Also a popular 34 1/2 year old who's a great blocker, but is injured. a fumbler who averaged 3.5 ypc last year, but is injured. and a Boobie, but is injured. who is a great guy but is Karlos. Who is injured. Those injuries don't really mean all that much as they relate to 2016 draft needs. Even with Fred out of the equation, we still have a pretty solid stable of RB's. I couldn't really see us taking a RB before the 5th round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Some interesting stuff. Thanks, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I like Davonte Booker, Utah. "Book Mode" will carry that team this year. Good runner and catcher who probably won't have huge stats as teams stack the box against them, so he could go a bit under the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 (edited) If you don't know Coprich's story, it's pretty brilliant. He got caught selling pot to an undercover police officer. It eventually got pled down and he was reinstated. I like Davonte Booker, Utah. "Book Mode" will carry that team this year. Good runner and catcher who probably won't have huge stats as teams stack the box against them, so he could go a bit under the radar... Booker is going to have a MONSTER year. With Dres Anderson graduating, he's all they've got left. They'll run him into the ground, wouldn't shock me if he breaks 2000 yards. Big thing going against him is that he turns 24 a month after the draft. Can't see him being a really early pick considering the eligible guys around him. Edited August 20, 2015 by Blokestradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Booker is going to have a MONSTER year. With Dres Anderson graduating, he's all they've got left. They'll run him into the ground, wouldn't shock me if he breaks 2000 yards. Big thing going against him is that he turns 24 a month after the draft. Can't see him being a really early pick considering the eligible guys around him. So the complete opposite of my take, lol. Let's revisit this after the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 So the complete opposite of my take, lol. Let's revisit this after the year. I think Wilson is mobile enough at QB to make the read-option viable enough to help and he's got the arm to threaten vertically. Just watch, Booker gets injured in Week 1 and I look like an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I think Wilson is mobile enough at QB to make the read-option viable enough to help and he's got the arm to threaten vertically. Just watch, Booker gets injured in Week 1 and I look like an idiot. I'm looking at what teams did against them late last year. Wilson wasn't enough of a threat to stop defenses from committing against the run. I'm not sure if they acquired any great talent at WR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Blokestradamus speaks the truth. They did stack tyhe box and will do it again. His 4.5 average against AP-ranked teams is pedestrian, but the opposition knew how to win when the options were thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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