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Analytics - 4th down


RalphOP83

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I attended an industry talk with my fiancé tonight, and the speaker was Mike Lyons - head of analytics for the Bills. His talk was very interesting, and his analytics role involves a lot more than the football side of operations.

 

During the Q&A I asked if he would go for it on 4th more than a hypothetical ex head coach had... The answer was an emphatic yes. He also mentioned that Rex is a lot more open minded, and that many coaches in the league are behind the curve.

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I attended an industry talk with my fiancé tonight, and the speaker was Mike Lyons - head of analytics for the Bills. His talk was very interesting, and his analytics role involves a lot more than the football side of operations.

 

During the Q&A I asked if he would go for it on 4th more than a hypothetical ex head coach had... The answer was an emphatic yes. He also mentioned that Rex is a lot more open minded, and that many coaches in the league are behind the curve.

Good stuff Ralph. As the numbers stuff Saint mentioned I had my suspcisions our ex head coach was a fraud halfway into his 1st year and it was clearly evident in year 2. Never was a fan from the point of his first challenge in game #1. Raised a big red flag for me.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever
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His talk was very interesting, and his analytics role involves a lot more than the football side of operations.

 

 

so, this is interesting. couple of questions if you could answer would be awesome

 

1) did he get into any detail the type of analytics they are using? I assume way more than 4th..we tend to focus so much on that but be interested to know what other information they are tracking.

 

2) i am a little pissed to hear he is not 100% football, but what else are they working on ?

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whats funny is all the people clamoring for a coach to go for it on every 4th down are the same ones who complain about it when we get stuffed

This is one of my all time favorite strawman arguments. The retarded cousin of "if it works everyone says he's a genius". Please find me links of any columinists, TBD posters, twitter users, etc who are adamant that the coach should go for it more on fourth down, yet complain that he went for it when we get stuffed.

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so, this is interesting. couple of questions if you could answer would be awesome

 

1) did he get into any detail the type of analytics they are using? I assume way more than 4th..we tend to focus so much on that but be interested to know what other information they are tracking.

 

2) i am a little pissed to hear he is not 100% football, but what else are they working on ?[/quote

1) think profootball focus type of stuff... He said the NFL provides great data for every team as well... Seems as though part of his role is to digest data and dumb it down for the coaches/front office. One example of his analytics is situations like we saw on the game clinching super bowl play... Situational analytics. The layperson may think it's a cut and dry decision, but there are a lot of situational variables in play. Say they run the ball all 4 plays, likelihood of success goes down every play for a number of reasons. He said hes also involved in creating our draft day decisions in the form of weighing draft picks etc. I asked about the data from the motion sensors players were wearing in camp... He said he is digging into that data now to help determine how it can help us in the future. (Think wear and tear in practice and how it correlates to injury potential)

 

2) fan experience, variable ticket pricing etc.

 

 

 

One last tidbit... He discussed how he typically includes excel spreadsheets with data and dumbs it down for his audience. Terry Pegula asked him for data on something and wanted him to expand on that data... He said when he presented it to Terry he expected him to just look at the summary in the PP presentation, but Terry was more concerned with the excel file... They worked through the methodology and data... Meaning Terry is a details guy not just a high level decision maker.

Edited by RalphOP83
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so, this is interesting. couple of questions if you could answer would be awesome

 

1) did he get into any detail the type of analytics they are using? I assume way more than 4th..we tend to focus so much on that but be interested to know what other information they are tracking.

 

2) i am a little pissed to hear he is not 100% football, but what else are they working on ?[/quote

1) think profootball focus type of stuff... He said the NFL provides great data for every team as well... Seems as though part of his role is to digest data and dumb it down for the coaches/front office. One example of his analytics is situations like we saw on the game clinching super bowl play... Situational analytics. The layperson may think it's a cut and dry decision, but there are a lot of situational variables in play. Say they run the ball all 4 plays, likelihood of success goes down every play for a number of reasons. He said hes also involved in creating our draft day decisions in the form of weighing draft picks etc. I asked about the data from the motion sensors players were wearing in camp... He said he is digging into that data now to help determine how it can help us in the future. (Think wear and tear in practice and how it correlates to injury potential)

 

2) fan experience, variable ticket pricing etc.

 

 

 

One last tidbit... He discussed how he typically includes excel spreadsheets with data and dumbs it down for his audience. Terry Pegula asked him for data on something and wanted him to expand on that data... He said when he presented it to Terry he expected him to just look at the summary in the PP presentation, but Terry was more concerned with the excel file... They worked through the methodology and data... Meaning Terry is a details guy not just a high level decision maker.

Thank you.

Funny on the TPEGS stuff..like any business, they always want the transactional data in excel...cracks me up no matter what reporting/bi/visualiztion/big data solution is being used...got be able to get it into excel!!!

Figured the other stuff was fan demos etc...

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whats funny is all the people clamoring for a coach to go for it on every 4th down are the same ones who complain about it when we get stuffed

Id like to see the analytics on that!

 

Analytics is such a funny buzzword. Back in the day we used to just have guys that knew what the right call for the right situation was. Now we need a fancy name for knowing what youre doing.

 

ANALYITICS!

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