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Which Bills are likely happy about the Watkins pick?


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I see a bunch of conventional wisdom being adopted in many posts on this pick, but caution folks to think for themselves as the CW is often wrong.

 

I think the bills who likely are happiest to see Watkins get on the Bills bus are:

 

A. Stevie Johnson!- The CW judges him to be a redundant goner as a Bill whose primary reaction to this pick of Watkins is likely disappointment over no longer being #1 WR or anger at seeing WR be judged a position of need.

 

However, my sense is that if you judge Johnson to be strongly motivated by 3 factors, 1. What is likely to make his team a winner, 2. What is likely to improve his personal productivity, 3 What will give him the biggest payday, then you realize the CW is probably wrong as the Watkins pick helps achieve goals in all three areas.

 

1. Watkins is a big investment in the O and an O guy must be pleased about this! NE simply had one of the most productive Os in football last year and if the Bills are to improve they simply need to either score more points or stop the opponents. The Bills have made a clear choice to go O!

 

Anyone who chooses to judge this as a zero-sum game where Watkins addition means less Stevie is probably wrong. Off the top the Bills have chosen less running and depending on CJ/Fred and instead more pass plays where even if Watkins is EJs first choice he I going to go through his reads on every pass play and if the wily vet Johnson gets good initial separation he will a fair share of EJ passes.

he Watkins pick is likely a boon and challenge for Stevie if you believe we are going to see even greater commitment to the pass and EJ is going to go through his reads (including Stevie on every play.

 

2. Personally Stevie is at worse going to face the opponents # 1 CB with less help as Watkins demands attention. In an even better world for Stevie production Watkins attracts opponents #1 and Stevie gets to pick on the opponents #2 CB instead of dueling with Darelle Revis.

 

3. Lets say Whaley stupidly trades Johnson for the chump change he rest of the league will get for him since folks know he is a goner as a Bill. Johnaon now gets traded to a new team which clearly sees him as their #1 WR or even gets to sign a new contract if the Bills simply panic and release him.

 

All three ways Johnson benefits from the Watkins pick.

 

B. EJ- Obvious beneficiary of getting another offensive playmaker talent.

 

C. Jeff Lewis- He has gotta be even happier than EJ because the only way he plays is if EJ gets hurt (which EJ has clearly shown a penchant to do already) but this now means that if/when Lewis comes in he has to make the offense work but now will do so with an impressive retinue of receiving talent. If EJ gets hurt, until yesterday I would have judged it impossible to do this. However, the addition of Watkins probably makes any task faced by Lewis a lot easier to do.

 

Watkins add a lot to this team if he and EJ develop chemistry, but more important improvement will be if EJ goes out 3 or so games as he may well do Lewis has a much better chance of being a productive QB throwing to Watkins/Johnson than if he was throwing to Johnson Woods.

 

D. CJ may be under more pressure since Watkins occupies the space as the new Bills wunderkind. However Fred has gotta be pleased as if Watkins made add a year to his career as the new go-to guy on 3rd down for the Bills.

 

 

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Scott Chandler, Lee Smith, Tony Moeaki, Chris Gagg, Mike Caussin, Brandon Kaufmann. Having spent 1st and 6ths on WR, unlikely the Bills will address tight end. This assumes reports of Kaufmann at 245 are accurate, otherwise he stays at WR and he is unhappy.

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