Tajh Boyd

[Estro]

It's based on a lot more than just tonight, I've followed him closely for the last 2 seasons. He's a better QB than Manuel. I wished I believed more in Manuel, I'm a Bills fan, but my eyes don't lie. And I've never seen a QB with poor accuracy and poor pocket presence succeed in the NFL. EJ Manuel refuses to step up and keep his eyes downfield when faced with pressure in the pocket. His accuracy also was near the worst of all QB's this past season. Big red flags. Boyd is no sure lock to be a great QB, but I'd be more comfortable taking a chance with him than Manuel. He succeeds in the 2 most important QB qualities IMO, accuracy and pocket presence.

 

I know you're on a roll but a little factual information is probably in order here.

 

According to this list, EJ Manuel just completed (statistically) the 10th best rookie season by any rookie QB since 1992. His 77.7 passer rating puts him between Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer.

 

http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx

 

 

 

FWIW, here's what happened last year when EJ went head to head with Tajh Boyd.

 

http://espn.go.com/n...ameId=322660052

 

EJ led Florida State from deficits 3 times in the Seminoles victory.

 

EJ was clearly the better QB that night, head-to-head.

Look I want EJ Manuel to succeed just as bad as the rest of us. I'm just stating what my eyes saw this season. I'm not happy with a Carson Palmer or Jeff Garcia, FWIW. What did those 2 QB's accomplish in this league. I want a QB who can compete for championships. EJ might've beaten Boyd head to head last year, but that has no impact on my belief that Boyd is a much better QB than Manuel. His poclet presence and accuracy are both much, much better than Manuel.

[DJasper Probincrux III]

According to this list, EJ Manuel just completed (statistically) the 10th best rookie season by any rookie QB since 1992. His 77.7 passer rating puts him between Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer.

 

http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx

Not to call that list into question but Doug Flutie wasn't a rookie in 1998. Not even an NFL rookie.

[Estro]

Someone will take Boyd at the end of the 1st round.

Agreed. With so many bad QB's starting in the NFL, I don't see how he doesn't fit into the top 32 picks. I actually have one of those gut feelings the Jets will be a likely landing spot for Boyd, and I won't be happy if that happens.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Not to call that list into question but Doug Flutie wasn't a rookie in 1998. Not even an NFL rookie.

 

That actually strengthens the argument in favor of Manuel.

 

His rookie season was compared to a veteran's season.

[DJasper Probincrux III]

That actually strengthens the argument in favor of Manuel.

 

His rookie season was compared to a veteran's season.

No what it does is make you wonder about the accuracy of the data.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

My post was in response to several of your posts, but particularly to you saying "Honestly, you could make a strong argument that the Bills took the guy with no future LAST year when they took a 4th round QB in round one out of need."

 

In the context of statistical facts, EJ had a very good rookie season. Particularly in view of having marginal receiving weapons, an offensive line which regressed, one running back who isn't explosive and another running back who is explosive and little else. Also EJ's injuries hurt his development.

 

And in spite of all this, he had a very good rookie season.

 

Here are all the QBs drafted in the first round since 2009:

 

Matthew Stafford 1st overall 2009

Mark Sanchez 5th overall 2009

Josh Freeman 17th overall 2009

Sam Bradford 1st overall 2010

Tim Tebow 25th overall 2010

Cam Newton 1st overall 2011

Jake Locker 8th overall 2011

Blaine Gabbert 10th overall 2011

Christian Ponder 12th overall 2011

Andrew Luck 1st overall 2012

Robert Griffin III 2nd overall 2012

Ryan Tannehill 8th overall 2012

Brandon Weeden 22nd overall 2012

 

It seems like people who criticize EJ are not being fair and objective.

 

No what it does is make you wonder about the accuracy of the data.

 

Oh. I see now.

 

Never mind.

Edited January 4, 2014 by San Jose Bills Fan

[DJasper Probincrux III]

No what it does is make you wonder about the accuracy of the data.

And why certain parameters like 300 attempts and the last 20 years were chosen. For giggles I looked up Dan Marino who played 9 games as a rookie in an era where passing was much harder. He had 296 attempts and his Passer rating was 96.

 

If you take 1986 as Kelly's rookie year he had 480 attempts. His rating was 83.3. FWIW his CAREER rating was a shade over 84.

 

Elway had under 300 attempts and his rating was 54.9

 

What I'm getting at it you can make numbers say whatever you want with the context you choose to put them in. As per passer rating EJ Manuel just blew John Elway's doors off.

 

In fact, per passer rating EJ Manuel just had a better season than John Elway did in 1989 when the Broncos went to the Super Bowl (73.7) Having watched that team I assure you that the Broncos had nothing on offense except John Elway, not a thing. I seriously doubt that even EJs most ardent supporters would argue that he was better than a Super Bowl bound John Elway this year. QB Rating is a very very flawed stat for a variety of reasons.

Edited January 4, 2014 by DJasper Probincrux III

[Estro]

My post was in response to several of your posts, but particularly to you saying "Honestly, you could make a strong argument that the Bills took the guy with no future LAST year when they took a 4th round QB in round one out of need."

 

In the context of statistical facts, EJ had a very good rookie season. Particularly in view of having marginal receiving weapons, an offensive line which regressed, one running back who isn't explosive and another running back who is explosive and little else. Also EJ's injuries hurt his development.

 

And in spite of all this, he had a very good rookie season.

 

Here are all the QBs drafted in the first round since 2009:

 

Matthew Stafford 1st overall 2009

Mark Sanchez 5th overall 2009

Josh Freeman 17th overall 2009

Sam Bradford 1st overall 2010

Tim Tebow 25th overall 2010

Cam Newton 1st overall 2011

Jake Locker 8th overall 2011

Blaine Gabbert 10th overall 2011

Christian Ponder 12th overall 2011

Andrew Luck 1st overall 2012

Robert Griffin III 2nd overall 2012

Ryan Tannehill 8th overall 2012

Brandon Weeden 22nd overall 2012

 

It seems like people who criticize EJ are not being fair and objective.

 

 

 

Oh. I see now.

 

Never mind.

You got the posters confused cause I never said that bout EJ, must've been another poster. I'm not saying Ej is.....stick a fork in him done, I'm just very much wanting the Bills to add another QB via the draft this year. What's the worst that can happen, EJ has some stiff comp. in camp and rises to the occasion to win the starting job? I'd be fine with that. I just don't want to see the Bills pass on talent and put all their eggs in Manuel's basket. I don't think he showed nearly enough to deserve that status.

[bobobonators]

This has been Boyd in college his entire career. Just mind-numbing throws

[San Jose Bills Fan]

And why certain parameters like 300 attempts and the last 20 years were chosen. For giggles I looked up Dan Marino who played 9 games as a rookie in an era where passing was much harder. He had 296 attempts and his Passer rating was 96.

 

If you take 1986 as Kelly's rookie year he had 480 attempts. His rating was 83.3. FWIW his CAREER rating was a shade over 84.

 

Elway had under 300 attempts and his rating was 54.9

 

What I'm getting at it you can make numbers say whatever you want with the context you choose to put them in. As per passer rating EJ Manuel just blew John Elway's doors off.

 

And was Kelly a true rookie when he entered the NFL?

 

Take the data I provided for what it's worth.

 

If you're gonna tell me it's worthless, I'm gonna tell you you're way off.

 

You can quibble all you want but EJ had the 10th best rookie season in the last 22 years. Neither of us selected the criteria. Split as many hairs as you want.

 

And while you're at it, feel free to show me data which proves that EJ's a "4th round talent."

 

I'm always up for an honest and objective debate.

 

You got the posters confused cause I never said that bout EJ, must've been another poster. I'm not saying Ej is.....stick a fork in him done, I'm just very much wanting the Bills to add another QB via the draft this year. What's the worst that can happen, EJ has some stiff comp. in camp and rises to the occasion to win the starting job? I'd be fine with that. I just don't want to see the Bills pass on talent and put all their eggs in Manuel's basket. I don't think he showed nearly enough to deserve that status.

 

Yes, I edited it because I was addressing DJP.

 

Sorry.

 

BTW, as I keep reminding people, I've posted several times that the Bills should consider drafting another QB.

 

What I'm getting at it you can make numbers say whatever you want with the context you choose to put them in. As per passer rating EJ Manuel just blew John Elway's doors off.

 

In fact, per passer rating EJ Manuel just had a better season than John Elway did in 1989 when the Broncos went to the Super Bowl (73.7) Having watched that team I assure you that the Broncos had nothing on offense except John Elway, not a thing. I seriously doubt that even EJs most ardent supporters would argue that he was better than a Super Bowl bound John Elway this year. QB Rating is a very very flawed stat for a variety of reasons.

 

Statistics are not the be-all, end-all.

 

I watch the games too, just like you.

 

As for Passer Rating, it has been pointed out recently here that Passer Rating is a very high indicator of success and that Passer Rating Differential is arguably the metric with the greatest accuracy for team success.

 

http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating

 

In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.^[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010 and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.^[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.^[8]

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/06/23/most.important.stat.passer.rating.differential/

 

"The Most Important Stat in Football"

Edited January 4, 2014 by San Jose Bills Fan

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Honestly not a fan of Murray. He doesn't exude leadership, in my opinion. Georgia seems to lose a lot of big games. I like Boyd. As for McCarron, any QB who is sacked 10 times all year can look good. We all saw how he handled being under pressure last night. Not a fan.

EJ exudes leadership?

[DJasper Probincrux III]

And was Kelly a true rookie when he entered the NFL?

 

Can we not grasp for straws but rather try to have an honest discussion?

 

Take the data I provided for what it's worth.

 

If you're gonna tell me it's worthless, I'm gonna tell you you're way off.

Ok let's put it this way. There were 21 QBs who qualified for that chart subtracting Flutie. Glennon, Manuel and Smith would have qualified this year. That makes 24. Manuel is 10th on that list. Glennon's season (83.9) just landed him at number 5 with a team with no less turmoil and less weapons. If we're going to accept QB Rating as a valid measurement of anything which I don't then we also have to say that the Bills screwed the pooch by taking Manuel in round 1 while Glennon went in round 4.

 

Again, to put in context of how useless QB Rating is, Mike Glennon is Jim Kelly at this point. Glennon's QB Rating exceeded all but 4 of Kelly's during his career.

 

As for data that suggests Manuel was a 4th round pick you know as well as i do that such thing doesn't exist apart from the opinions of people who are paid to make such opinions. For the purposes of your position that's not a path you want to follow though because if I yield that Manuel actually is a 1st round talent based on his draft position then you must also yield that he was grossly outplayed by a 4th round talent in Glennon.

 

This particular exchange is part of the reason i don't bother doing this anymore. I'm going after your data, you're going after me. "Grasping at straws" and "quibbling" are extremely condescending terms. You clearly aren't open to an objective argument. You're open for shouting down opposition and grouping everyone who disagrees with you into the same unreasonable pile.

 

Fine. You win. EJ Manuel had a great year.

[Sisyphean Bills]

EJ exudes leadership?

 

Well, someone has to be line-leader to the training room tub.

[JM57]

Honestly not a fan of Murray. He doesn't exude leadership, in my opinion. Georgia seems to lose a lot of big games. I like Boyd. As for McCarron, any QB who is sacked 10 times all year can look good. We all saw how he handled being under pressure last night. Not a fan.

The problem with saying this is that they've always lost big games under Mark Richt. At least under Murray they still scored when they lost, the defense would just lay a turd.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Ok let's put it this way. There were 21 QBs who qualified for that chart subtracting Flutie. Glennon, Manuel and Smith would have qualified this year. That makes 24. Manuel is 10th on that list. Glennon's season (83.9) just landed him at number 5 with a team with no less turmoil and less weapons. If we're going to accept QB Rating as a valid measurement of anything which I don't then we also have to say that the Bills screwed the pooch by taking Manuel in round 1 while Glennon went in round 4.

 

Again, to put in context of how useless QB Rating is, Mike Glennon is Jim Kelly at this point. Glennon's QB Rating exceeded all but 4 of Kelly's during his career.

 

As for data that suggests Manuel was a 4th round pick you know as well as i do that such thing doesn't exist apart from the opinions of people who are paid to make such opinions. For the purposes of your position that's not a path you want to follow though because if I yield that Manuel actually is a 1st round talent based on his draft position then you must also yield that he was grossly outplayed by a 4th round talent in Glennon.

 

This particular exchange is part of the reason i don't bother doing this anymore. I'm going after your data, you're going after me. "Grasping at straws" and "quibbling" are extremely condescending terms. You clearly aren't open to an objective argument. You're open for shouting down opposition and grouping everyone who disagrees with you into the same unreasonable pile.

 

Fine. You win. EJ Manuel had a great year.

 

I never said EJ had a great year, I said he had a very good year for a rookie.

 

Also, I have no problem saying Glennon had the better rookie season. It would be silly to argue otherwise.

 

But I still believe EJ has major upside and certainly there's nothing guaranteeing that Glennon will have a better career.

 

My only point is that I think many people on this board are very inaccurate in their view of how a rookie QB is supposed to perform. Even to this very day, most rookie QBs really suck. The statistics certainly show that EJ didn't suck and to my eye he didn't suck.

 

I think the Atlanta game in Toronto is a really good Rorschach Test for EJ.

 

I thought he had a few rough moments but overall played really well. He threw for a TD, he ran for a TD, he didn't throw a pick. He completed passes to 6 different receivers and he had the Bills driving in the 4th quarter before Stevie fumbled and again in OT when Chandler fumbled.

 

Yet there are people on this board who state that EJ played poorly against Atlanta.

 

That's amazing to me.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Anybody know whether Boyd was asked to make many reads?

 

Tonight, it looked like everything was one read. Very simple.

[YoloinOhio]

Anybody know whether Boyd was asked to make many reads?

 

Tonight, it looked like everything was one read. Very simple.

No thanks on Boyd. Against decent defenses, he hasn't done much. He was playing against a team of backups last night. Even Devin Gardner from Mich put up 600 yds of offense on the Bucks this year. Boyd might be an OK backup but I'll take Thad.

[JM57]

Anybody know whether Boyd was asked to make many reads?

 

Tonight, it looked like everything was one read. Very simple.

 

350 of his 378 yards were yards after the catch last night. Speaks more to the dynamic playmaking abilities of Sammy Watkins IMO. He's a guy that the more I watch play, the more I think he's a guy you have to take at #9 if he's available.

 

Not in the AJ Green/Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones class or mold that we would all love, but a dynamic player nonetheless. Maybe more similar to an Antonio Brown or Steve Smith.

[KD in CA]

Anybody know whether Boyd was asked to make many reads?

 

Tonight, it looked like everything was one read. Very simple.

 

I'll admit I haven't watched Boyd that much before last night, but to me he looks like just another run-first college QBs who is a long-shot to develop into an NFL starter. I saw a guy who never spends more than one second in the pocket before taking off to either run or chuck it up to his star WR (who was awesome last night -- wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him). I wouldn't even consider drafting Boyd before the middle of Day 3.

[BUNCH OF MULARKEY]

I was ALL-IN on Tajh as an NFL prospect coming out of last year. I was actually a bit surprised he didn't enter the 2013 draft. After another season, I have to admit, I have some more reservations about his game and how it'll translate in the NFL, but I'm still a believer. He'll have a lot of work as far as recognizing defenses and making better reads, much like EJ Manuel, but I think he's a much better pure passing QB than EJ. When you watch EJ it seems like you are watching a very manufactured passer, with an odd passing stroke and accuracy all over the place. Tajh Boyd, on the otherhand has a very tight compact throwing motion, and a great looking stroke. Very good accuracy, and a beautiful deep ball, that is usually right on the money. Sammy Watkins is a good receiver, and he owes a lot of his success to the beautiful deep ball that Boyd throws. It now appears Boyd will be available in the late 1st-2nd round area and I'd love for the Bills to grab him. I know they won't, but just wait and see, this kid will be a good NFL QB, and I have a bad feeling it'll be with the Jets. He's on tonight, and I look forward to watching his last college game, hopefully his next is in a Bill uniform.

So ej has an odd passing stroke and this guy has a great looking stroke and two beautiful deep balls...

You must REALLY like this guy!