Over 29 years of fanhood Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Every year we play 25% of the NFC. Every year we suck. So it's not super crazy. It's been a while but aren't the odds of even playing the NFC representative 7 consecutive years in a row 0.25%^7 or like .00610%? (Of course only applies to random opponent selection which we know is not the case) Maybe it's more rigged than I thought. Tricky indeed especially since the bills losing to that team increases the likelihood that that team goes so the Super Bowl due to a win. Where is a phd statistician when you need one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 (edited) It's been a while but aren't the odds of even playing the NFC representative 7 consecutive years in a row 0.25%^7 or like .00610%? (Of course only applies to random opponent selection which we know is not the case) Maybe it's more rigged than I thought. Tricky indeed especially since the bills losing to that team increases the likelihood that that team goes so the Super Bowl due to a win. Where is a phd statistician when you need one? First, watch the decimal point... Secondly, 25% technically only works without the wildcard, so my original quote was a little simplistic. (whoops, this is wrong, I kind of forgot that we actually play 4 out of the 16 teams in the Conference... need more coffee) Like others have said, it's weirder that the AFC East has played the NFC Champion seven years in a row, than the Bills losing to that specific team. Edited August 16, 2013 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 (edited) The odds are staggeringly low... We have only a 1/16 chance of playing the eventual super bowl team from the NFC any given year, or 6.25%. To do this 7 year's in a row, our odds would be, if I am calculating this correctly, .000000023% to even play this team, the factoring in a 50% chance of losing to this team, it would be .0000000115% Pretty astronomical odds either way, lol... Again this doesn't take into account the likelihood of how good a teams chances are of going to the SuperBowl or even winning a game, just assuming all things are equal... Or to put in other terms, our chances of us playing these teams is 1 in 67,108,864 and losing to them 1 in 134,217,728 Similar to winning the lottery? Or better odds to win the lottery? Edited August 16, 2013 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 (edited) The odds are staggeringly low... We have only a 1/16 chance of playing the eventual super bowl team from the NFC any given year, or 6.25%. To do this 7 year's in a row, our odds would be, if I am calculating this correctly, .000000023% to even play this team, the factoring in a 50% chance of losing to this team, it would be .0000000115% Pretty astronomical odds either way, lol... Again this doesn't take into account the likelihood of how good a teams chances are of going to the SuperBowl or even winning a game, just assuming all things are equal... nope - 1/4 odds any given year. we play a full division in the NFC. then as many have said, a bad team losing to a good team is not 50-50. still crazy odds though. Edited August 16, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 nope - 1/4 odds any given year. we play a full division in the NFC. then as many have said, a bad team losing to a good team is not 50-50. still crazy odds though. Yeah you are right...we play 4 teams each year... So it would be 1 in 16,384 to play that team and 1 in 32,768 to lose to each one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damian Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I'm confused, are we doomed or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Every year we play 25% of the NFC. Every year we suck. So it's not super crazy. Despite the perennial suckitude, there's only a 1 in 16,384 chance that the division would match up for 7 consecutive seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
l< j Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo ... Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 (edited) What are the sheer odds of losing to the eventual NFC Superbowl team for the past seven years?! 2006 — Loss @ Chicago, 40-7 2007 — Loss v. NY Giants, 38-21 2008 — Loss @ Arizona, 41-17 2009 — Loss v. New Orleans, 27-7 2010 — Loss @ Green Bay, 34-7 2011 — Loss @ NY Giants, 27-24 2012 — Loss @ San Fran 45-3 That's a cool stat. Chances are very small actually. Even if you take out the loss, the chance of playing the NFC Super Bowl rep each of the last 7 years is less than 1% I believe. My stats 101 memory is bad, but think you multiply 0.25 by 0.25, 7 times and then multiply that by 100 and that's your percentage chance. Perhaps? It's similar to putting 4 numbers in a hat and pulling out the same number 7 times in a row. Edited August 16, 2013 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 The road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo ... :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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