WHY is everyone mocking a QB @ #8?

[eball]

"Reach" is a term concocted by Mel Kiper and the legions of draft "experts" who followed in his footsteps. If you want a player and believe he won't be available the next time you pick, you take him. It's that simple. It's also why the "expert" rankings of QBs this season are completely irrelevant. If Nix/Whaley/Marrone believe one of these QBs can do the job for the next 6-7 years, taking him at #8 is actually a no-brainer.

[SouthernMan]

You're ok with current fill-ins?!? The weak linebacking made the Bills a joke on defense. The defense had more responsibility for the 2012 W-L record than the offense. Not that the offense was that much better. I don't care how good an offense we have, if the opposition is running up points, they're dictating the Bills approach to offense when they're in constant catch-up mode and have to abandon the running game - the strength of the offense. IMO - the Bills need to draft the player that has THE BEST chance of being an impact player. A big "maybe" with a huge learning curve at QB will further impede any progress. Better 1st round prospects than those now available have come and gone from the teams that drafted them. Many of them are now FA or trade fodder. There's no such thing as a "sure thing", but it's a calculated risk. In this case, I don't see a QB that is worth the #8 pick. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that none of the top rated QBs coming out this year will make much of a splash. It would be a tragedy to miss out on a greater potential all-pro LB for cross-your-fingers-wishing-well QB. Don't dismiss the importance of good linebacking. Apart from a good field general, 2 things top teams almost always have as their strengths is linebacking and tight ends - the less glorious unsung heros of championship teams.

[BILLS_ROC]

...after a decade of NOT taking a QB in previous drafts where there was far better talent than in the current....I will be upset that we decided to pull the trigger in a down year for the position overall.

 

Well said.

Edited April 23, 2013 by BILLS_ROC

[Ozymandius]

This year? It's called nothing. The year of NOT the QB. That's not to say there isn't a gem, but that there is no obvious/definitive Franchise Quarterback.

 

You're thinking about this all wrong. The Bills don't have to marry themselves to whichever QB they pick at #8.

 

This is them "taking a shot" at getting their QB in this, the 2013 draft.

 

If that QB doesn't work, then take another shot in the 2014 draft.

 

Keep doing it until you find one. The NFL is about QB play. Under the current rules, which seem to continue to change towards the passing game each year, I don't see how anyone can disagree.

[eball]

You're thinking about this all wrong. The Bills don't have to marry themselves to whichever QB they pick at #8.

 

This is them "taking a shot" at getting their QB in this, the 2013 draft.

 

If that QB doesn't work, then take another shot in the 2014 draft.

 

Keep doing it until you find one. The NFL is about QB play. Under the current rules, which seem to continue to change towards the passing game each year, I don't see how anyone can disagree.

 

Sometimes I wish we had a "hands clapping" smiley.

[Luxy312]

You're ok with current fill-ins?!? The weak linebacking made the Bills a joke on defense. The defense had more responsibility for the 2012 W-L record than the offense. Not that the offense was that much better. I don't care how good an offense we have, if the opposition is running up points, they're dictating the Bills approach to offense when they're in constant catch-up mode and have to abandon the running game - the strength of the offense. IMO - the Bills need to draft the player that has THE BEST chance of being an impact player. A big "maybe" with a huge learning curve at QB will further impede any progress. Better 1st round prospects than those now available have come and gone from the teams that drafted them. Many of them are now FA or trade fodder. There's no such thing as a "sure thing", but it's a calculated risk. In this case, I don't see a QB that is worth the #8 pick. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that none of the top rated QBs coming out this year will make much of a splash. It would be a tragedy to miss out on a greater potential all-pro LB for cross-your-fingers-wishing-well QB. Don't dismiss the importance of good linebacking. Apart from a good field general, 2 things top teams almost always have as their strengths is linebacking and tight ends - the less glorious unsung heros of championship teams.

 

The single most important metric that predicts a teams success or failure is turnover ratio. When the Bills have the 5th worst turnover ratio in the league last year, they're going to lose a lot of games. I'm with you on getting help at linebacker none the less. This team was awful against the run and gave up nearly the most 3rd and long plays in the league last year. You can't win games when you do that. None the less, turnovers were ridiculous. Going -2 in a game translates to losing 95+% of the time. Going -13 for the season (which they did last year) almost always guarantees a losing record and watching the playoffs from the sofa.

[Flutie7Flakes]

You're thinking about this all wrong. The Bills don't have to marry themselves to whichever QB they pick at #8.

 

This is them "taking a shot" at getting their QB in this, the 2013 draft.

 

If that QB doesn't work, then take another shot in the 2014 draft.

 

Keep doing it until you find one. The NFL is about QB play. Under the current rules, which seem to continue to change towards the passing game each year, I don't see how anyone can disagree.

 

This is the best point made thus far. If this is our FO strategy, I would definitely be supportive. With our schedule this year it's going to be rough on any QB, so possibly taking a chance is worth it IMO.

 

Whichever rookie is at the helm will get to compete against the likes of Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan this year. Not bad if they can take notes for a solid sophomore campaign (and hopefully a less challenging schedule!)

[Stan da Man]

What round was Brady drafted in? Bottom line is none of us ever know how any pick is going to turn out long term. If coaching/FO like a QB at #8 or #41 then they pick their guy there and coach the most out of them as possible.

 

I'd be fine with Barkley at #8. I believe he has the potential to have a better career than Smith.

[Flutie7Flakes]

What round was Brady drafted in? Bottom line is none of us ever know how any pick is going to turn out long term. If coaching/FO like a QB at #8 or #41 then they pick their guy there and coach the most out of them as possible.

 

I'd be fine with Barkley at #8. I believe he has the potential to have a better career than Smith.

 

Sounds like our front-office is down to 2 choices which could VERY well be @ #8.....Barkley or Nassib.

 

Either I would be fine with....but any trade-down scenario for an extra 1st or early 2nd is definitely inviting...

[Mr. WEO]

 

Get a life once you're done smoking my pole.

 

Awesome--and only 19 posts in to his career!!

 

All of this "this year's QBs aren't that good" mantra will be proven wrong.

 

Anyway, boom goes the thread....

[KDIGGZ]

It's been rumored that the Jags want Barkley with the 1st pick of round 2. If the Bills want him then they need to get him somewhere in round 1 whether that is pick 8 or by trading down or trading back into the end of the 1st. I don't think Barkley or Nassib are worth #8 by a long shot. If the Bills are that undecided then I'd trade down and pick up an extra 2nd round pick and still have at least one or both of those guys available at the end of the 1st

[Jauronimo]

Get a life once you're done smoking my pole.

Very impressive stuff. You're going to be a hit here. I can tell.

Edited April 23, 2013 by Jauronimo

[Luxy312]

What round was Brady drafted in? Bottom line is none of us ever know how any pick is going to turn out long term. If coaching/FO like a QB at #8 or #41 then they pick their guy there and coach the most out of them as possible.

 

I'd be fine with Barkley at #8. I believe he has the potential to have a better career than Smith.

 

People love to quote the exception to the rule, but then rarely go back and do the math on when a QB is picked and NFL success. Let's simplify a bit and look at the 20 years spanning 1990-2012.

 

First round QB's: 48 were picked. 29 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (60%) and 21 (44%) are still players in the NFL.

Second round QB's: 22 were picked. 6 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (27%) and 6 (27%) are still players in the NFL.

 

Everyones favorite 6th round QB's: 41 were picked. 4 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (10%) and 5 (12%) are still players in the NFL.

 

This translates to every position in the NFL. Sure teams find gems in later rounds, but even between just the first and second round, the success of NFL players trails off considerably. Like you, I'll live with whatever the coaching staff ultimately does and hope those players succeed. However, I'm a much bigger fan of the trade down scenarios (if they're an option) or waiting to get a signal caller later.

[Alphadawg7]

Ummm, because its our biggest need?

 

I am all for a QB, but I would not call it our biggest need anymore. I would say our biggest need is a tie over several positions, including QB. But the Kolb signing and resigning of T Jax gives us a little more flexibility at 8 in this years draft. Not that either of those guys are long term solutions, however, Kolb still has some upside if we can protect him. I want a new QB as bad as anyone, however, I still think many guys are gonna be there in the 2nd that grade out similar to anyone we would take at 8. My ideal scenario is to keep making people think we will take someone like Tavon or Dee and get a trade down to about the middle of the first and pick up an extra 2nd and maybe some change so we can still grab a QB and fill an additional hole potentially with that extra pick(s).

 

I do however think the 2 most likely scenarios will be a QB or a trade back. However, if a guy like Dee slips or if they really do love Tavon (I doubt it, he is not the type or WR Nix has been coveting) then those could be the picks too. I dont think they really covet Austin, TJ Graham is kind of a poor mans Austin in terms of the style of WR and TJ had a great first camp. They don't want another midget to pair with Stevie and TJ and prefer a guy who is open even when he's not open as Nix would say.

[KDIGGZ]

I am all for a QB, but I would not call it our biggest need anymore. I would say our biggest need is a tie over several positions, including QB. But the Kolb signing and resigning of T Jax gives us a little more flexibility at 8 in this years draft. Not that either of those guys are long term solutions, however, Kolb still has some upside if we can protect him. I want a new QB as bad as anyone, however, I still think many guys are gonna be there in the 2nd that grade out similar to anyone we would take at 8. My ideal scenario is to keep making people think we will take someone like Tavon or Dee and get a trade down to about the middle of the first and pick up an extra 2nd and maybe some change so we can still grab a QB and fill an additional hole potentially with that extra pick(s).

 

I do however think the 2 most likely scenarios will be a QB or a trade back. However, if a guy like Dee slips or if they really do love Tavon (I doubt it, he is not the type or WR Nix has been coveting) then those could be the picks too. I dont think they really covet Austin, TJ Graham is kind of a poor mans Austin in terms of the style of WR and TJ had a great first camp. They don't want another midget to pair with Stevie and TJ and prefer a guy who is open even when he's not open as Nix would say.

I agree that we don't NEED a QB. But that dummy Buddy Nix will go after one anyhow after failing to take one the past few years. I don't like having a GM that is desperate. Could lead to reaching for a guy that might not be the best fit. But anyhow, why get Kolb if we are getting a guy at pick 8? If you pick someone that high then you expect them to come in to be an immediate starter and difference maker. If you want a guy to develop then get them in the 2nd. That's my take on the situation

[yungmack]

Because the bills do not have a qb

Um, what would you call Kolb? A couple of years ago, he was the hot topic in lots of trade talk. If he can stay healthy, he might very well be the "franchise QB" everyone is hoping against hope might be found in this year's draft. The Bills certainly didn't sign him to be camp fodder. Because I think they believe Kolb is going to be great for them, it's my guess the FO will focus on a QB they can develop w/o the pressure to start immediately.

[NickelCity]

Its not that big a deal if the QB we draft turns out to be a bust because of the new rookie cap.

 

If whoever we draft for QB doesnt work out we could go after one of the bigger names in the draft next year.

 

Yep. I've been saying this too. In fact, I want us to take a QB with a high pick every year until one of them impresses. Hopefully it pans out this year. Call me crazy.

[Alphadawg7]

I agree that we don't NEED a QB. But that dummy Buddy Nix will go after one anyhow after failing to take one the past few years. I don't like having a GM that is desperate. Could lead to reaching for a guy that might not be the best fit. But anyhow, why get Kolb if we are getting a guy at pick 8? If you pick someone that high then you expect them to come in to be an immediate starter and difference maker. If you want a guy to develop then get them in the 2nd. That's my take on the situation

 

Thats not necessarily true though. Yes, in recent years several QB's have come in right away and made a huge impact on their team. However, that is still NOT the preferred choice among most teams in the NFL who would rather have a young QB sit a year or two and learn before throwing him into the fire. And with todays new rookie cap, teams can afford to let rookies earn their starting spot rather than just give it to them by default out of the gate. Like in Seattle last year, they got Flynn and drafted Wilson. They didnt hand the job to Wilson, he just flat out earned it. Then look at a team like the Niners, they took Kap but he sat until he got an opportunity to show he was ready to take over.

 

So I don't think anyone we take at 8 will be given the job, they will have to beat out Kolb and TJ to be the starter week 1 this year. In fact, if we take a guy 8 I would say it will be a long shot he is a week 1 starter given the veteran presence at QB on this team.

[Like A Mofo]

ESPN needs the Bills to take a QB at 8. So they can justify how much they pay mcShay and Mel and talk about how they got the pick right and criticize the Bills for reaching. That is what gets ratings.

[Bills4]

You're thinking about this all wrong. The Bills don't have to marry themselves to whichever QB they pick at #8.

 

This is them "taking a shot" at getting their QB in this, the 2013 draft.

 

If that QB doesn't work, then take another shot in the 2014 draft.

 

Keep doing it until you find one. The NFL is about QB play. Under the current rules, which seem to continue to change towards the passing game each year, I don't see how anyone can disagree.

 

Exactly. The Bills have to start drafting for the most important position in all of sports. If we had the number 31 pick and we picked a qb, would that make anyone feel better because its less of a reach? Who really cares what pick it is if the Bills draft a guy they feel can be the franchise qb for the next 10 years.

 

And honestly, we find ourselves drafting around the same spot every year - around number 10. We never are bad enough to get a top 3 pick, so even if an rg3 or luck comes out in future draft, chances are we wont be bad enough to draft the guy. Sitting at 8 and having an opportunity to draft a guy who some argue is the best qb in the draft is a good opportunity even if this is considered a weak qb class.

 

We are going to find ourselves drafting in similar or hopefully higher slots in the coming years because our record will be better. So we cant expect that we are going to be able to draft the next Andrew Luck because I dont see us ever having such a bad record we get #1 or #2 overall pick. If whoever we pick at qb at #8 doesnt work out this year, we will be in the same position next year. Enough wins to be around the 10th pick, and taking a shot on another qb who is not the best qb to come around in years. So we'd better get used to drafting qbs who arent supposed to be the next peyton manning.

 

As a side note, I feel like this is a blessing in disguise. I have high hopes for Nassib and hope the Bills take him. He did a lot with very little and could be a great fit in Buffalo for a number of reasons.