Astro's 2013 Not Too Early Bills Mock

[Rob T from OP]

No way the Bills take a CB @ 8.... LB!!!

[tennesseeboy]

i think we have to go with a quarterback in round 1 or in round 2. I love the idea of Jarvis Jones in round 1. I think we need linebackers more than anything, and see us using a few picks in that direction.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Ogletree in round one Astro.

The Bills need an elite 3 down LB given how the NFL is these days. Ogletree seems one of the few who can fit that this year.

Dline and WR are deep this draft. I would not consider one of those positions untill the 3rd. Second round than becomes QB or CB. Yes the Bills need a QB, but taking one just to take one is silly. If their is a CB in round 2 still available that has starter potential, take him.

[Astrobot]

So I have put GRAB in for Ogletree in RD1. So far as LB's you'd have Bradham, Ogletree, Sheppard, and one from this draft or FA.

I have a GRAB in on Geno Smith in RD1 if he falls to #8.

[eball]

There you are! Took you awhile to respond to the ol' Bat Signal this time...

 

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Bill from NYC responding to a mock draft suggesting the Bills will draft a CB in the first round.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

My Mock 2.0:

My goal is more coverage sacks, more pressure up the middle, and weapons for the offense. I'm taking 2 FA QB's but expect a 2-year plan, taking my franchise QB in 2014. I would trade any pick or player to pick my QB next year.

 

1-Dee Milliner CB 28 Alabama 6'1" 196 (Jarvis Jones OLB if he's there)

2-Jonathan Jenkins DT34 6 Georgia 6'3" 351 (your nose tackle for 3-4)

3-Jamie Collins OLB 8 SMU 6'3" 240 (Logan Ryan CB here if we took Jones in RD1)

4-Cobi Hamilton WRP 11 Arkansas 6'3" 209

5-Michael Williams TE 89 Alabama 6'6" 270

6-Keith Pough OLB 13 Howard 6'2" 241

 

UDFA:

--Brad Sorensen QB Southern Utah 6'4" 235

--Sean Renfree QB Duke 6'4" 225

--Alec Lemon WRP Syracuse 6'2" 205

--Darrin Moore WRF Texas Tech 6'4" 216

--Marlon Brown WRF Georgia 6'4" 216

--Cassius Marsh (Jr.) DT43/TE UCLA 6'3" 290

--Ronnie Wingo RBC Arkansas 6'3" 231

--Dominick Le Grande SS Marshall 6'3" 210

--Graham Pocic OC Illinois 6'5" 308

--James Morris WILB Iowa 6'2" 228

--D.C. Jefferson TE Rutgers 6'5" 250

--Zach Boren FB Ohio State 6'0" 245

--Ryan Allen P Louisiana Tech 6'2" 215

--Dustin Hopkins K Florida State 6'2" 190

 

The Bills need a cornerback and they should go get one in free agency.

 

If cornerback is valuable enough to use up a 1/3 of your first picks on over the past quarter century....the position is important enough to spend big money on in free agency.

 

The scary thing is that if you count Gilmore as a good player, the Bills have actually HIT on 7 of the last 9 cornerbacks they have drafted in the first round over that 25 years.

 

The reason why it doesn't result in success on the field is that rb's and db's are the low hanging fruit of the draft. Easy evaluations, low actual impact in the win column over the long haul.

 

QB's.......they make a difference. The Bills don't draft those early though. Too risky to draft with a first selection....for the past 50+ years.

 

The Bills need to start ACTUALLY changing the way they do things if they intend to get different results.

 

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Bill from NYC responding to a mock draft suggesting the Bills will draft a CB in the first round.

 

 

Bill has been saying the same thing here for 15 years. He was right then, and the data accumulated over the last 53 years of Bills draft history completely support his position. But unfortunately the people at OBD keep expecting to sprout a dynasty from their stable of runnin bax and d-bax.

[Rob's House]

A lot of the comments here are silly. It's easy to scream about linebackers, but if there isn't one worth picking it would be infinitely stupid to pass on a solid prospect at another position to get a longshot prospect at an area of need. What you can't get in the draft you address in FA.

 

I don't want us to go CB in 1 but I'd rather blow a top 10 pick on a shutdown corner than waste it on a LB who doesn't have top 10 talent. If we happen to have good value at LB on the board then by all means (see my sig) but this draft is deep at WR and TE, not LB and QB. Lucky for us those are needs as well.

Edited February 21, 2013 by Rob's House

[Dibs]

The scary thing is that if you count Gilmore as a good player, the Bills have actually HIT on 7 of the last 9 cornerbacks they have drafted in the first round over that 25 years.

 

The facts are bad enough without the need for crazy exaggerations.

 

Last 25 years:

7 1st round cornerbacks.

1990 Williams BUST

1993 Smith HIT

1994 Burris BUST/HIT?

1999 Winfield HIT

2001 Clements HIT

2008 MdKelvin BUST

2012 Gilmore ???

[BADOLBILZ]

The facts are bad enough without the need for crazy exaggerations.

 

Last 25 years:

7 1st round cornerbacks.

1990 Williams BUST

1993 Smith HIT

1994 Burris BUST/HIT?

1999 Winfield HIT

2001 Clements HIT

2008 MdKelvin BUST

2012 Gilmore ???

 

"Crazy" exaggerations?

 

First of all, 1990 was only 23 drafts ago, but yes I mistakenly included Nate Odomes and Derrick Burroughs. Nate was an early second in 1987 and Burroughs was a #1(14th overall) in 1985. They were both good, but Burroughs career was cut short in that AFC Championship game in Cinci. I had forgotten that the Bills didn't have first round picks in 1988 and 1989 so they couldn't use them on DB's.

 

Add in Henry Jones and Donte Whitner and you have 9 defensive backs selected with the Bills first pick in the draft in 23 years.

 

Then there are the 4 RB's taken with that first pick and 13 of your last 23 picks are d-bax and runnin' bax.

 

To put it in a little perspective, DB's and RB's account for 5 of 22 starting positions. Kinda' ridiculous to be expending 57% of your top picks over that long of a period on 23% of your starting positions.

 

That cycle actually goes back to the 1960's, and it really is the OTHER common thread that ties the Bills losing to today to the losing of the late 1960's.

 

1)Ralph Wilson as owner making consistently poor football decisons

 

2) investing too many premium picks in RB's and DB's and not enough in QB's.

[Dibs]

"Crazy" exaggerations?

 

First of all, 1990 was only 23 drafts ago, but yes I mistakenly included Nate Odomes and Derrick Burroughs. Nate was an early second in 1987 and Burroughs was a #1(14th overall) in 1985. They were both good, but Burroughs career was cut short in that AFC Championship game in Cinci. I had forgotten that the Bills didn't have first round picks in 1988 and 1989 so they couldn't use them on DB's.

 

Add in Henry Jones and Donte Whitner and you have 9 defensive backs selected with the Bills first pick in the draft in 23 years.

 

Then there are the 4 RB's taken with that first pick and 13 of your last 23 picks are d-bax and runnin' bax.

 

To put it in a little perspective, DB's and RB's account for 5 of 22 starting positions. Kinda' ridiculous to be expending 57% of your top picks over that long of a period on 23% of your starting positions.

 

That cycle actually goes back to the 1960's, and it really is the OTHER common thread that ties the Bills losing to today to the losing of the late 1960's.

 

1)Ralph Wilson as owner making consistently poor football decisons

 

2) investing too many premium picks in RB's and DB's and not enough in QB's.

 

"Crazy" was a bit strong lol.

You're not wrong though. I've been meaning to do a full league comparrison of 1st round DB selections. I'm expecting we'll be league leaders!

[BADOLBILZ]

"Crazy" was a bit strong lol.

You're not wrong though. I've been meaning to do a full league comparrison of 1st round DB selections. I'm expecting we'll be league leaders!

 

I think Bills fans would greater understand how ridiculous the Bills obsession with bax' d and r has been if there weren't some examples of good teams that use early picks on them as well.

 

The difference is that those teams almost always have excellent QB's in place.

 

And let's face it, for all the talk about how important DB's are in the pass happy NFL, the two reps in the SB this year were not exactly loaded with stud talent at the CB positions.

 

Revis and Cromartie weren't there. Neither were DRC and Nnamdi. Teams trying to stockpile shutdowns got shut-the-fug down last year. Just like they do every year, come to think of it.

[NewEra]

A lot of the comments here are silly. It's easy to scream about linebackers, but if there isn't one worth picking it would be infinitely stupid to pass on a solid prospect at another position to get a longshot prospect at an area of need. What you can't get in the draft you address in FA.

 

I don't want us to go CB in 1 but I'd rather blow a top 10 pick on a shutdown corner than waste it on a LB who doesn't have top 10 talent. If we happen to have good value at LB on the board then by all means (see my sig) but this draft is deep at WR and TE, not LB and QB. Lucky for us those are needs as well.

 

Why are the comments silly. There is wide belief that there WILL be a LB worth taking at #8. Werner, j jones, Moore, Jordan, mingo and ogletree are all potentially top 10. That's 6 LBs and we pick 8th. I'm pretty sure there will be one or a few of these guys available. Are they "top 10 talent"? We'll see. Going LB in round 1 makes a lot of sense. As does CB, QB or possibly OL. Whaley said they would take the bpa. It might be a LB.