Cutler

[Gugny]

I wouldn't trade a box of Kyle Williams' used jockstraps for Cutler.

 

Talent? Yes.

Ability? Yes.

Ability to use talent? Not so much.

As long as we could keep the actual Kyle Williams, this might not be a bad trade, Beerball.

[Maybe Someday]

Why does Cutler always look either drunk or sick?

 

Got a light?

http://smokinjaycutler.tumblr.com/

[Gugny]

Got a light?

http://smokinjaycutler.tumblr.com/

That is hilarious.

[Orton's Arm]

To revisit this debate, here is an analysis of Cutler provided by a Bears' fan with some experience as a QB coach at the college and high school levels. It's rather technical but it's an interesting breakdown of what is missing from Cutler's game and offers an explanation about why he might be forever flawed. It comes from Football Outsiders as well.

 

When I read it I thought it fit in very well with this discussion. Here is the link:

 

http://www.footballo...rong-jay-cutler

Good article. It makes a strong case that Cutler has significant flaws.

[Just in Atlanta]

Cutler is a franchise QB.

 

Hard to have great stats when you're running for your life every play. He's got a bad attitude, but hands down one of the toughest QBs in the league.

[K-9]

Cutler is a franchise QB.

 

Hard to have great stats when you're running for your life every play. He's got a bad attitude, but hands down one of the toughest QBs in the league.

 

Watch some of the stupid things he does even when he's not running for his life.

 

He's got a franchise arm and sometimes we get seduced by that. But his mechanics break down even when he has all the time in the world at times. He's just too inconsistent for me to consider him a true franchise QB.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Ramblin' Rob]

Cutler is a very good QB. I think he’s very much one of those second tier guys. He’s not Rogers or Peyton or Brady or Brees, but he is still in that upper half of franchise QB’s. Last night was a stinker for sure, but he will get it on track and win games for the Bears.

 

As much as I like and believe in Fitz, the jury is still out. I think he needs to produce a greater body of work before we can grant the same kind of mulligan.

 

It depends on how many tiers you have, if just two and its split down the middle, then Cutler is a top tier QB and Fitz is a bottom tier. If the division is elite/non-elite then they are both bottom tier. However, if there are three tiers, then neither is a top tier or bottom tier, but a middle tier QB. If there are four tiers, Cutler is a second tier and Fitzy a third.

[K-9]

It depends on how many tiers you have, if just two and its split down the middle, then Cutler is a top tier QB and Fitz is a bottom tier. If the division is elite/non-elite then they are both bottom tier. However, if there are three tiers, then neither is a top tier or bottom tier, but a middle tier QB. If there are four tiers, Cutler is a second tier and Fitzy a third.

 

Regardless of the tiers, both will drive you to tears.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

It depends on how many tiers you have, if just two and its split down the middle, then Cutler is a top tier QB and Fitz is a bottom tier. If the division is elite/non-elite then they are both bottom tier. However, if there are three tiers, then neither is a top tier or bottom tier, but a middle tier QB. If there are four tiers, Cutler is a second tier and Fitzy a third.

 

> If there are four tiers, Cutler is a second tier and Fitzy a third.

 

That sounds about right.

[C.Biscuit97]

It depends on how many tiers you have, if just two and its split down the middle, then Cutler is a top tier QB and Fitz is a bottom tier. If the division is elite/non-elite then they are both bottom tier. However, if there are three tiers, then neither is a top tier or bottom tier, but a middle tier QB. If there are four tiers, Cutler is a second tier and Fitzy a third.

 

No offense but I completely disagree. Fitz and Cutler are pretty much on the same tier. Because of the superior physical skills Cutler has, people completely overrate him.

 

Cutler's last 3 seasons: 28 games, 492 for 839 58.6%, 6,235 yards (222.7 yards/game), 39 tds, 29 ints (1.3 td:int), 9 lost fumbles. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7760/career

 

Fitz' last 3 seasons: 32 games, 658 for 1,096 60%, 7,413 yards (231.7 yards/game), 55 tds, 41 ints, (1.34 td:int), 8 lost fumbles. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7426/career

 

Basically, Fitz has an edge in every category over Cutler, yet he is 2 tiers below him? Trust me, there's a lot of QBs that I'd trade Fitz for but Cutler is at the very bottom of the list. Even he wasn't a completely douche, he jsut isn't really that great to begin with. He also plays on a team with a top 10 defense and probably the best STs in the game. Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman could win there. Cutler is Jeff George Jr.

 

Got a light?

http://smokinjaycutler.tumblr.com/

 

Hilarious. He looks like the most miserable person ever.

[K-9]

No offense but I completely disagree. Fitz and Cutler are pretty much on the same tier. Because of the superior physical skills Cutler has, people completely overrate him.

 

Cutler's last 3 seasons: 28 games, 492 for 839 58.6%, 6,235 yards (222.7 yards/game), 39 tds, 29 ints (1.3 td:int), 9 lost fumbles. http://sports.yahoo....ers/7760/career

 

Fitz' last 3 seasons: 32 games, 658 for 1,096 60%, 7,413 yards (231.7 yards/game), 55 tds, 41 ints, (1.34 td:int), 8 lost fumbles. http://sports.yahoo....ers/7426/career

 

Basically, Fitz has an edge in every category over Cutler, yet he is 2 tiers below him? Trust me, there's a lot of QBs that I'd trade Fitz for but Cutler is at the very bottom of the list. Even he wasn't a completely douche, he jsut isn't really that great to begin with. He also plays on a team with a top 10 defense and probably the best STs in the game. Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman could win there. Cutler is Jeff George Jr.

 

 

 

Hilarious. He looks like the most miserable person ever.

 

Prepare to have the ubiquitous "Yards Per Attempt" stat to support ANY claim that Cutler is by far a better QB than Fitz.

 

You can set your watch to it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Big Turk]

The Jets D have made many a QB look horrible...think their average passer rating against last year was in the 60s...

[Orton's Arm]

Prepare to have the ubiquitous "Yards Per Attempt" stat to support ANY claim that Cutler is by far a better QB than Fitz.

 

You can set your watch to it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

In an earlier discussion, you stated (correctly) that yards per attempt was the best single measurement of QB effectiveness. A better measurement than (for example) QB rating. If you've changed your view about yards per attempt, please explain why.

 

As for the statistical measurements C. Biscuit has chosen: each is flawed. Completion percentage is flawed because it unfairly rewards QBs who dump the ball off a lot, while unfairly punishing QBs who attempt lower percentage, higher reward passes. Yards per game is flawed because it unfairly rewards QBs who play for pass-happy coaches, while unfairly punishing QBs who play for more run-oriented teams.

 

Fitz plays for a pass-happy coach (Gailey); artificially inflating his yards per game. Fitz attempts a lot of shorter passes; thereby artificially inflating his completion percentage. Over the last two years, Fitz's yards per attempt has not been artificially inflated, and more or less accurately indicates the quality of his play. And yes, Fitz's yards per attempt has been significantly lower than Cutler's.

[K-9]

In an earlier discussion, you stated (correctly) that yards per attempt was the best single measurement of QB effectiveness. A better measurement than (for example) QB rating. If you've changed your view about yards per attempt, please explain why.

 

Right on time.

 

I'm not changing my view on YPA as the single best measurement of a QB's effectiveness as a passer.

 

I'm discounting it as an indication that Cutler is a great QB. He isn't to this point.

 

There are a host of other things involved besides the single best measurement. Like not doing stupid things with the ball when you don't have to or not forgetting basic throwing mechanics you learn in high school. Like throwing while backpedaling, which he has a habit of doing. Or not setting himself properly. And he's been doing these things since he came into the league. If he's not lazy, he's at least lackadaisical out there and that's something you can't have in a QB.

 

Million dollar arm, 10 cent head. Seen it dozens of times over the years.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KOKBILLS]

 

I don't know what my ultimate point is, but I think some members of this board need a reminder from time to time that Fitz isn't the only QB in the league who has shortcomings.

 

 

Seriously? That's why you posted this? To make Fitz look better in our eyes?

 

Okey doke...Done...

[Orton's Arm]

Right on time.

 

I'm not changing my view on YPA as the single best measurement of a QB's effectiveness as a passer.

 

I'm discounting it as an indication that Cutler is a great QB. He isn't to this point.

 

There are a host of other things involved besides the single best measurement. Like not doing stupid things with the ball when you don't have to or not forgetting basic throwing mechanics you learn in high school. Like throwing while backpedaling, which he has a habit of doing. Or not setting himself properly. And he's been doing these things since he came into the league. If he's not lazy, he's at least lackadaisical out there and that's something you can't have in a QB.

 

Million dollar arm, 10 cent head. Seen it dozens of times over the years.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> I'm not changing my view on YPA as the single best measurement of a QB's effectiveness as a passer.

 

I think we're in agreement on this point. The fact that Cutler has a much higher YPA than Fitz correctly indicates that Cutler is a more accurate passer than Fitz.

 

> I'm discounting it as an indication that Cutler is a great QB. He isn't to this point.

 

I revised my opinion of Cutler downward after reading the article on page 6 of this thread. The difference between Cutler and Peyton Manning is significantly greater than YPA, or even YPA and INT percentage, would indicate.

 

But you don't have to be a particularly great QB to be better than Fitz.

 

> There are a host of other things involved besides the single best measurement.

 

Agreed.

[K-9]

> I'm not changing my view on YPA as the single best measurement of a QB's effectiveness as a passer.

 

I think we're in agreement on this point. The fact that Cutler has a much higher YPA than Fitz correctly indicates that Cutler is a more accurate passer than Fitz.

 

> I'm discounting it as an indication that Cutler is a great QB. He isn't to this point.

 

I revised my opinion of Cutler downward after reading the article on page 6 of this thread. The difference between Cutler and Peyton Manning is significantly greater than YPA, or even YPA and INT percentage, would indicate.

 

But you don't have to be a particularly great QB to be better than Fitz.

 

> There are a host of other things involved besides the single best measurement.

 

Agreed.

 

I don't accept that Cutler's YPA makes him a more accurate passer, either. At least over the last three years. If it's your contention that Cutler attempts more low percentage passes, I can't accept that. At least for the 2010 season anyway. I've linked the PFF article before. Fitz both attempted and completed more deep passes while Cutler had more intercepted. Sure, their numbers are almost identical, but they tend to show that the idea that Fitz is only more accurate because he doesn't attempt as many long balls as Cutler is not accurate.

 

http://www.profootba.../10/going-deep/

 

Anyway, as I've contended this entire thread there is no disputing that Cutler has a better arm and is a better passer than Fitz.

 

I don't think he's a better QB at this point.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited September 28, 2012 by K-9

[Orton's Arm]

I don't accept that Cutler's YPA makes him a more accurate passer, either. At least over the last three years. If it's your contention that Cutler attempts more low percentage passes, I can't accept that. At least for the 2010 season anyway. I've linked the PFF article before. Fitz both attempted and completed more deep passes while Cutler had more intercepted. Sure, their numbers are almost identical, but they tend to show that the idea that Fitz is only more accurate because he doesn't attempt as many long balls as Cutler is not accurate.

 

http://www.profootba.../10/going-deep/

 

Anyway, as I've contended this entire thread there is no disputing that Cutler has a better arm and is a better passer than Fitz.

 

I don't think he's a better QB at this point.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> I don't accept that Cutler's YPA makes him a more accurate passer, either.

 

In that case, what is your explanation for Cutler's higher YPA average than Fitz?

 

> If it's your contention that Cutler attempts more low percentage passes, I can't accept that. At least for the 2010 season anyway.

 

According to the article, Cutler went deep about 15% of the time; as compared to 16% of the time for Fitzpatrick. While that's a useful datum, we should also ask ourselves what happened the remaining 85% of the time. The offense Gailey created for Fitz involves a lot of high percentage, relatively straightforward throws. That is, many NFL QBs would find it very challenging to make the right read quickly, as Fitz usually can. But the required throws themselves are typically easy and high percentage.

 

> I've linked the PFF article before.

 

It's a good article. I found it interesting that Peyton Manning had the 22nd best deep ball completion percentage; Ryan Fitzpatrick the 25th best, and Jay Cutler the 28th best. Those data seem to suggest that deep ball accuracy is not a particular strength for any of those three QBs.

 

> Anyway, as I've contended this entire thread there is no disputing that Cutler has a better arm and is a better passer than Fitz.

 

On that we agree!

 

> I don't think he's a better QB at this point.

 

On that we disagree, though my opinion of Cutler as a QB is lower now than when the discussion began.

[K-9]

In that case, what is your explanation for Cutler's higher YPA average than Fitz?

 

On the surface, and looking at the 3 year comparison above, I'd say the main reason is far fewer attempts. I'm sure there are other factors like big plays, yac, etc. But I don't think it's simply because he throws more deep balls or that Fitz throws so many more short passes. If anything, Fitz's YPA is limited by being in the type of offense he's in. Fitz's higher number of attempts is also indicative of playing from behind so often or not playing with leads often enough to run the ball more and limit the number of attempts.

 

Why is Cutler less accurate than Fitz over the last three years if the reason isn't more attempts overall or throwing more deep passes?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Orton's Arm]

On the surface, and looking at the 3 year comparison above, I'd say the main reason is far fewer attempts. I'm sure there are other factors like big plays, yac, etc. But I don't think it's simply because he throws more deep balls or that Fitz throws so many more short passes. If anything, Fitz's YPA is limited by being in the type of offense he's in. Fitz's higher number of attempts is also indicative of playing from behind so often or not playing with leads often enough to run the ball more and limit the number of attempts.

 

Why is Cutler less accurate than Fitz over the last three years if the reason isn't more attempts overall or throwing more deep passes?

 

GO BILLS!!!

> On the surface, and looking at the 3 year comparison above, I'd say the main reason is far fewer attempts.

 

I disagree, but I'm open to changing my mind if more evidence is presented. I'll start with the two year period of Cutler's career from 2007 - 2008. In both years he started all 16 games for the Broncos. In 2007 he had 467 passing attempts. In 2008 he had 616 passing attempts. If having more passing attempts lowers your yards per attempt, you'd think he would have had a much lower yards per attempt in 2008 than in 2007. His yards per attempt was 7.5 in 2007, and 7.3 in 2008. That would seem to suggest that greatly increasing a QB's number of pass attempts can cause a small drop in yards per attempt. But the gap between Cutler and Fitz is much greater.

 

You could point to the fact that Cutler had more pass attempts (and a lower YPA) in his first year in Chicago than in subsequent years. And you'd be right. But how much of that low YPA during that first year was because of too many pass attempts, how much was because of his adjusting to a new offense, and how much of it was his supporting cast's fault? It's difficult to quantify answers to questions like that.

 

To resolve that dilemma, I decided to look at Ben Roethlisberger, to see if an increased number of attempts seemed to correspond with a decreased YPA. The data are as follows:

 

2004 - 23 passes per game - 8.9 YPA

2005 - 22 passes per game - 8.9 YPA

2006 - 31 passes per game - 7.5 YPA

2007 - 37 passes per game - 7.8 YPA

2008 - 29 passes per game - 7.0 YPA

2009 - 34 passes per game - 8.6 YPA

2010 - 32 passes per game - 8.2 YPA

2011 - 34 passes per game - 7.9 YPA

 

There have been three years in which Roethlisberger averaged over 33 pass attempts per game. During those three years, his YPA was 7.8, 8.6, and 7.9. His career average is 8.0 YPA. During the three years in which he had the most pass attempts, he averaged 8.1 YPA. Increased pass attempts don't seem to have hurt his YPA. I suppose one could do this same exercise for QBs around the league, to see if an increased number of passing attempts correlates to lower YPA.

 

> Why is Cutler less accurate than Fitz over the last three years if the reason isn't more attempts overall or throwing more deep passes?

 

I disagree with the way you're using the word "accurate." Trent Edwards has a career completion percentage of 60.5%, largely because he dumped it off to the running back so often. Jim Kelly's career completion percentage is 60.1%. This does not mean that Trent Edwards is more "accurate" than Jim Kelly.

 

I'll grant that Fitz has a higher completion percentage than Cutler. I'll also grant that both QBs tend to attempt passes of over 20 yards at about the same frequency. (Around 15% of the time.) But not all passes under 20 yards are equally difficult. A lot of the passes Fitz has been attempting in Gailey's new offense have been easy throws. I give Fitz credit for making the right decision, and making it quickly. But the throws themselves are ones every NFL QB should be able to make as a matter of routine.