Mr. WEO Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How many such "breaks" does a team need to get before people start calling "fire" from the "smoke" is the question (and we haven't even brought up the ridiculous officiating in their games yet--oops, I guess we just did)..... I still really don't see how any of those factors leads to the Pats* being more likely to play us and other good teams after their bye. If it figures into this at all, it's on the margins (say 1 in 4100 chance to 1 in 3900 chance). What may figure in is the fact that NE* gets more games against better quality opponents since they play a first place schedule each year. That said, since we also play them twice a year to make up for that, we play almost as many "good" teams each year, but seem to come nowhere close to having as many "good" teams or divisional games after byes. All things considered, it looks to me like New England seems to get a say in who they play after their bye a good bit of the timet. Either that, or it's a heckuva large coincidence.... Then why on earth would they chose a team they have beaten routinely for years? Your theory is based on the assumption that an extra week of preparation will help defeat a tough foe. The majority here have pointed out to you that the Bills have proven to be anything but that (your ridiculous claims that they have been considered the 2nd best team in the AFCE not withstanding). Give it up. You continue to make no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Of all the paranoid Pats threads I have seen on here this one is the worst. Anyone who didn't know better would think the Bills run neck and neck with the Pats for the division lead year after year, and even a slight edge may tip the balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Then why on earth would they chose a team they have beaten routinely for years? Your theory is based on the assumption that an extra week of preparation will help defeat a tough foe. The majority here have pointed out to you that the Bills have proven to be anything but that (your ridiculous claims that they have been considered the 2nd best team in the AFCE not withstanding). Give it up. You continue to make no sense. So it's a coincidence then that they seem to get to play more meaningful games after byes than other teams, including a 1 in 4100 probability of playing a particular divisional foe 4 times in a row and 5 times in 9 years, with 3 of those other 9 years getting to play the prior Year's division winner and two perennial playoff rivals? OK, believe that if you want. Back to work for me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How many such "breaks" does a team need to get before people start calling "fire" from the "smoke" is the question (and we haven't even brought up the ridiculous officiating in their games yet--oops, I guess we just did)..... I still really don't see how any of those factors leads to the Pats* being more likely to play us and other good teams after their bye. If it figures into this at all, it's on the margins (say 1 in 4100 chance to 1 in 3900 chance). What may figure in is the fact that NE* gets more games against better quality opponents since they play a first place schedule each year. That said, since we also play them twice a year to make up for that, we play almost as many "good" teams each year, but seem to come nowhere close to having as many "good" teams or divisional games after byes. All things considered, it looks to me like New England seems to get a say in who they play after their bye a good bit of the time. Either that, or it's a heckuva large coincidence.... That's basically what I said above. I don't deny there's a hell of a coincidence, and I hate coincidences...but I also think there's a lot to this. If nothing else, I think an interesting show on the NFL network, which I refuse to pay for, would be to see how the schedule gets built. If there's nothing nefarious going on, why not show us what does go on? Afraid the fans may get upset? Yeah, that would be awful for the ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 What good does it do them then? If someone was looking to give them an advantage why wouldn't they give them a bye before a more difficult opponent, instead of one they have beaten, what--14 of the last 16 times? Your conspiracy theory lacks a certain...logic. Which is a means to what ends? Is the idea to help the Patriots, or screw the Bills, or a little bit of both? And is this a directive you would say that comes all the way from the top, ordered by The Commish, or somewhat of a rogue force that infests only the scheduling committee? Then why on earth would they chose a team they have beaten routinely for years? Your theory is based on the assumption that an extra week of preparation will help defeat a tough foe. The majority here have pointed out to you that the Bills have proven to be anything but that (your ridiculous claims that they have been considered the 2nd best team in the AFCE not withstanding). Give it up. You continue to make no sense. The post below is very close to what happens imo. I don't think its a nefarious screw the Bills plan, I think it is a give the Pats* a break plan. Coming off of a bye is about a 50% chance to get a win. Sometimes your team is prepared and sometimes it is still taking a vacation. If you are given a cupcake (sorry that is what the Bills have been) then your chances of winning and getting ready for the next part of your season are increased (chalking up a division win doesn't hurt either). It isn't because the Bills have been good it's because they have been bad. Here is a link.. http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2011/10/30/numbers-game-bye-week-blues/ I don't trust Robert Kraft one bit and think he does have some say-so with the league. I also don't trust anything cheatriots. I will however say that it is done imo more to hook up the pats* than screw the Bills. I think the scenarios laid out of them getting other teams (when it isn't Buffalo) isn't far off either of giving them a better shot against tough competition. That's the part that stands out to me - no matter who the opponent is it seems to benfit the Pats* in some way. Look, this conspiracy theory doesn't hold water, and I think everyone knows that. But having an additional week to rest, recover, and prepare for a divisional foe (even one you are likely to beat), who, if an away game, is only a short commuter flight away is definitely a convenience. If you're confident in your chances, it's an extended holiday-- like having nothing of significance due the Monday after a long weekend. If you're not as confident, it's an added week to gameplan, prepare, and get healthy. I don't believe for a moment that the NFL has conspired to give the Pats* an edge, it's just a nice break for a team that catches a lot of them. Perhaps you haven't considered the less nefarious causes behind this? Every year the same people do the schedule. This means that after so many years of doing this, they are bound to find ways to make it easier, and, to also account for things like what to do with a team who just played Monday Night on the road, across the country, etc. Like everything else, I am sure that patterns have formed, shortcuts, etc., and that these people have seen how to use them to make the job go faster. One of those patterns, since the Pats have had to have their bye week later than everybody else in the division, for literally all 9 years we are talking about here, is probably to bye them before they play all of their division opponents the second time...or, at least try to. Meanwhile, since the Bills have more often than not had to have their bye early....they are the most eligible team for the Pats** to play after the bye....as were the Dolfags last year.* It might be as simple as that. *I have a "every 3rd time I refer to a team in our division, I modify their name appropriately", rule. Hey, it's not every time. It's every 3rd time. I checked the Bills 2008 schedule against the 2012 and literally the only game that was the same is week 10 against the Pats* on the road. It wasn't however after the Pats* bye. The only other game the Pats* have that is the same is week 8 against the Rams (this year is the london game) and week 10 against the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 4 pages of woe is us. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Bills Fan Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) Maybe this is the league's attempt to punish the Pats ... you know, give them a bye week before a game when they really don't need it. Don't you think the Pats would prefer a bye against another team ... maybe to get the D ready for the Broncos, for example? I can't see Kraft going to the league office demanding a bye against a team that hasn't been to the playoffs this century. I fail to see the conspiracy. Plus, teams sometimes play better when they are not coming off the bye ... Any W against the Pats is huge though. Edited April 18, 2012 by DC Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills44 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Don't waste your time, MattM. The Pats** love on this board is just too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Don't waste your time, MattM. The Pats** love on this board is just too strong. Yes, the reason we are suggesting alternative scenarios is.....we are Pats fans in disguise....and not because.... ....we are trying to help you with your....paranoia. The reason your monitor flickers every once in a while? That's me, watching you. Btw, you need to lose a few pounds, that sweater vest has to go, and no, wearing that scarf doesn't make you look erudite. That girl will never be into you as long as you keep wearing it to the coffee shop. And, yeah, it's time to get a new laptop...but...understand, I will be present on that one as well...way before you even buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Which is a means to what ends? Boning us over of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 This thread is major FAIL!! Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) The post below is very close to what happens imo. I don't think its a nefarious screw the Bills plan, I think it is a give the Pats* a break plan. Coming off of a bye is about a 50% chance to get a win. Sometimes your team is prepared and sometimes it is still taking a vacation. If you are given a cupcake (sorry that is what the Bills have been) then your chances of winning and getting ready for the next part of your season are increased (chalking up a division win doesn't hurt either). It isn't because the Bills have been good it's because they have been bad. Here is a link.. http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2011/10/30/numbers-game-bye-week-blues/ I don't trust Robert Kraft one bit and think he does have some say-so with the league. I also don't trust anything cheatriots. I will however say that it is done imo more to hook up the pats* than screw the Bills. I think the scenarios laid out of them getting other teams (when it isn't Buffalo) isn't far off either of giving them a better shot against tough competition. That's the part that stands out to me - no matter who the opponent is it seems to benfit the Pats* in some way. I checked the Bills 2008 schedule against the 2012 and literally the only game that was the same is week 10 against the Pats* on the road. It wasn't however after the Pats* bye. The only other game the Pats* have that is the same is week 8 against the Rams (this year is the london game) and week 10 against the Bills. I know this is going to sound snarkier than i mean it to, but.... essentially you just laid out that they get us because we are bad, the other half of the time they get teams because they are good, and that the bye week always is good for them. is there a team that would be a disadvantage to have after the bye? oh yea, and that generally bye weeks are a 50-50 situation, which you would expect from any given randomly selected week. if you pick a random game in each teams schedule, the sum total should be about .500 all reasons that i dont think this is anything more than a quirk. its cause could be random, or it could result from some sort of pattern they follow and the fact that we have each been pretty consistent for a decade. That's basically what I said above. I don't deny there's a hell of a coincidence, and I hate coincidences...but I also think there's a lot to this. If nothing else, I think an interesting show on the NFL network, which I refuse to pay for, would be to see how the schedule gets built. If there's nothing nefarious going on, why not show us what does go on? Afraid the fans may get upset? Yeah, that would be awful for the ratings. the reason the fans would be upset is they would realize how much the focus is on dollars and television. Edited April 18, 2012 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Calling foul on the Pats recent bye week history is silly. Study a little bit about "mathematical coincidence" and you will understand that recent history in and of itself is actually an unsuspicious string of events. Don't confuse numerical expressions of possible outcomes with the natural occurrence of seemingly impossible outcomes in real life every moment of every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) Calling foul on the Pats recent bye week history is silly. Study a little bit about "mathematical coincidence" and you will understand that recent history in and of itself is actually an unsuspicious string of events. Don't confuse numerical expressions of possible outcomes with the natural occurrence of seemingly impossible outcomes in real life every moment of every day. 4 out of the last 5 years and 6 of the last 8 I think. I would say that defies the statistical chance of it being just a "coincidence". If it were relatively random we should get the Pats after OUR bye week 50% of the time when it does happen. This also defies incredibly that statistical possibility. The reality of the situation makes it HIGHLY "suspicious" in my opinion. Edited April 18, 2012 by PDaDdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smears Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 They coddle Tom Brady when he gets dirty. They coddle the Pats with questionable calls (or non calls) from refs. What else is new. Cant wait till Brady retires so this favoritism from the league and media halts. Soon after Belicheat will retire because they will be irrelevant again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 4 out of the last 5 years and 6 of the last 8 I think. I would say that defies the statistical chance of it being just a "coincidence". If it were relatively random we should get the Pats after OUR bye week 50% of the time when it does happen. This also defies incredibly that statistical possibility. The reality of the situation makes it HIGHLY "suspicious" in my opinion. Why do you think that any part of the schedule follows a random distribution? Why would it? And what are you suspicious of?? You guys can't even agree as to what the benefit is: getting 2 weeks to prepare for a tough game against Bills because "they are picked to be the AFCE runnerup"; or, the opposite-- after 2 weeks off, teams are rusty and need a tomato can to tune up on. Why don't you loons get together and put forth a unified theory so we can mock you all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) I know this is going to sound snarkier than i mean it to, but.... essentially you just laid out that they get us because we are bad, the other half of the time they get teams because they are good, and that the bye week always is good for them. is there a team that would be a disadvantage to have after the bye? oh yea, and that generally bye weeks are a 50-50 situation, which you would expect from any given randomly selected week. if you pick a random game in each teams schedule, the sum total should be about .500 No problem and essentially that is where it ended up for me and why this was my last sentence That's the part that stands out to me - no matter who the opponent is it seems to benefit the Pats* in some way. There are many ways to look at it and in each scenario it seems that the Pats* benefit if that is the stance you want to take. As for the team that would be bad for them off of a bye yes there is an answer. A non-conference foe that is a stronger team where a win doesn't mean much but a loss certainly hurts. I think the core fault of the conspiracy argument is this: The pats* are a good team so when you see who they play off of a bye it looks like a win. The Bills haven't been a good team so who they play off of the bye looks like a tough game. If the Pats* were worse no one would be concerned that they played the Bills off of a bye. If the Bills were better no one would care who they played that was coming off of a bye. Does that make sense? Most of my post pertained to the idea of if this is happening why it is not that I definitively believe it is. I really don't think there is a grand league conspiracy to screw the Buffalo Bills, I do however think that there is interest in protecting their golden franchise and helping them out whenever possible. (much like the lakers in the nba and the yankees in mlb). This bye situation is a major statistical anomaly and one that I can understand creating concern especially when it pertains to known cheaters. Edited April 18, 2012 by section122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 It's the man holding us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Why do you think that any part of the schedule follows a random distribution? Why would it? And what are you suspicious of?? You guys can't even agree as to what the benefit is: getting 2 weeks to prepare for a tough game against Bills because "they are picked to be the AFCE runnerup"; or, the opposite-- after 2 weeks off, teams are rusty and need a tomato can to tune up on. Why don't you loons get together and put forth a unified theory so we can mock you all at once. This is my point. This tendency to always play the Pats after their bye week is not random it is premeditated. The benefit to the Pats is that they get to play a division rival almost every year after 2 weeks to prepare and rest. The cost to us is that we have had to play a division rival and division leader almost every year for the last 8. It's tough enough to take away a game from a division leading rival and much tougher after they have 2 weeks to rest and prepare. Teams don't get rusty middle of the season with an additional week of rest playing at home. It's pretty simple in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 No problem and essentially that is where it ended up for me and why this was my last sentence That's the part that stands out to me - no matter who the opponent is it seems to benefit the Pats* in some way. There are many ways to look at it and in each scenario it seems that the Pats* benefit if that is the stance you want to take. As for the team that would be bad for them off of a bye yes there is an answer. A non-conference foe that is a stronger team where a win doesn't mean much but a loss certainly hurts. I think the core fault of the conspiracy argument is this: The pats* are a good team so when you see who they play off of a bye it looks like a win. The Bills haven't been a good team so who they play off of the bye looks like a tough game. If the Pats* were worse no one would be concerned that they played the Bills off of a bye. If the Bills were better no one would care who they played that was coming off of a bye. Does that make sense? Most of my post pertained to the idea of if this is happening why it is not that I definitively believe it is. I really don't think there is a grand league conspiracy to screw the Buffalo Bills, I do however think that there is interest in protecting their golden franchise and helping them out whenever possible. (much like the lakers in the nba and the yankees in mlb). This bye situation is a major statistical anomaly and one that I can understand creating concern especially when it pertains to known cheaters. i get what your saying. i dont think i buy that its an effort to help the pats that this is happening though. even in the case of the strong non conference opponent (which is pretty limited in chances to fall after a bye), it is still an important game to win. speaking to the people saying the divisional record is a big deal - that would only be if someone thought we were not just number 2, but were going to tie. any of the tie breakers within the conference for seeding go on head to head and conference record, no? if thats the case a big game against the steelers, ravens, in the past the colts or now the texans or denver would be MUCH more valuable a win than to beat up the bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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