DrDawkinstein Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) Thanks for clicking! Over the weekend I used PFW's draft value chart, and put together a mock draft and my 53-man roster Draft Disclaimer: I started by identifying our biggest needs as WR, OT, LB, and CB (in no particular order). I then made a 4x4 chart that laid out approximately which players would be available at each position in each round (basically a much smaller version of PFW's chart). I then ran through the different scenarios of addressing all of our needs in different orders. As in, what happens if we go OT-WR-LB-CB vs LB-OT-WR-CB vs CB-LB-WR-OT, etc etc... Looking at all of the outcomes, I identified what I think is the draft that adds the most talent at each position of need. My final version looks like: 1. Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame (assuming Blackmon is gone or else he is the pick) 2. Lavonte David, LB Nebraska 3. Casey Hayward, CB Vanderbilt 4a. Brandon Mosley, OT Auburn 4b. Josh Norman, CB Coastal Carolina 5a. Nate Potter, OT Boise St 5b. Demario Davis, LB Arkansas St 6. Tank Carder, LB TCU 7a. Marquis Maze, WR Alabama 7b. Andrew Datko, OT Florida St While I really like this draft and these players, I'm not necessarily married to anyone specific. If you want to argue we should pick Wagner (OLB) in round 2 instead of David, fine. I'm not going to pretend to have a full scouting report on these guys. I wanted to address some needs of lesser priority, such as backup QB, but when looking at who might be available in the 5th-7th rounds, there just wasnt a QB available that was worth sacrificing a better player for. Final 53-Man Roster: Lindell, K Moorman, P Sanborn, LS Brown, C Wood, C Levitre, LG Urbik, RG Rinehart, G Hairston, LT Pears, RT Mosely, OT Potter, OT Caussin, TE Chandler, TE Smith, TE S. Johnson, WR Floyd, WR Nelson, WR edit:Rooselvelt, WR Easley, WR Jones, WR McIntyre, FB Choice, RB Jackson, RB Spiller, RB Fitzpatrick, QB Thigpen, QB Smith, QB/WR K Williams, DT Dareus, DT Edwards, DT Heard, DT edit: S. Johnson, DT/DE Carrington, DE/DT M Williams, DE Anderson, DE Kelsay, DE Merriman, DE Sheppard, ILB Carder, ILB Barnett, OLB Morrison, OLB David, OLB Davis, LB Florence, CB Williams, CB McKelvin, CB Hayward, CB Rogers, CB Byrd, FS Norman, CB/FS Wilson, SS Searcy, SS Scott, S/LB Practice Squad: Maze, WR Datko, OL Jasper, G C White, OLB I do not believe McGee makes it through camp healthy. Or it is at least obvious that he can not keep up anymore. If Merriman doesnt make it through camp, I replace him with Batten/Eddins If Easley doesnt make it through camp, I replace him with Aiken or Maze Could also send CB-Norman to Practice Squad (Wilson backup FS, and Scott backup SS) and keep another player (like a 5th DT). What you think, folks? Edited April 14, 2012 by DrDareustein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBD Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I think Troup is kept over Heard. I agree that they're going to probably have to take at least 3 LBs in this draft to make up their depth due to the change in defense. I probably wouldn't keep Roosevelt, that will likely be one of the final roster spots and specs will factor in a great deal. So either Ruvell Martin or a player at another position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 I think Troup is kept over Heard. I agree that they're going to probably have to take at least 3 LBs in this draft to make up their depth due to the change in defense. I probably wouldn't keep Roosevelt, that will likely be one of the final roster spots and specs will factor in a great deal. So either Ruvell Martin or a player at another position. I hear ya. Troup/Heard and Roosevelt were players I was on the fence about as well. They probably would keep Troup, as long as he's healthy, since he is "their guy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) wow how much time did you spend on this? are you home with the kids today? Ive come around and would like to see them draft Floyd but unless something dramatic happens its going to be Reiff Edited April 9, 2012 by Max997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 wow how much time did you spend on this? are you home with the kids today? Hahaha, only took me an hour or so, as I had a bunch of time to kill over the holiday weekend. Just posting today. The draft took shape quickly by posting in that linked thread about PFW's chart. Everything else was pretty easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Good draft....somewhere in there I would like to see the bills pluck that undersized but talented QB folks have been talking about - Could def see a LB in the 2nd - Potter would be outstanding....I think we will take two OT's...I dont know about 3 - I think Derek Hagan makes this team - I also think MgGee makes it if he can stay healthy - I see both Troup and Heard staying....I honestly dont see any DL drafted at all - I dont think Roosevelt makes it.....I know he is a fan favorite but I think WR's that wont beat press coverage are in real danger of not making this team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbosrrgood Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) 1. Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame (assuming Blackmon is gone or else he is the pick) 2. Lavonte David, LB Nebraska 3. Casey Hayward, CB Vanderbilt 4a. Brandon Mosley, OT Auburn 4b. Josh Norman, CB Coastal Carolina 5a. Nate Potter, OT Boise St 5b. Demario Davis, LB Arkansas St 6. Tank Carder, LB TCU 7a. Marquis Maze, WR Alabama 7b. Andrew Datko, OT Florida St[/size I'd be cool with that. Don't know a lot about David, but LB depth is a need. I don't see the Bills waiting until the 4th round for a OT though. Edited April 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I'm pretty happy with everything here, good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbosrrgood Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) I think Troup is kept over Heard. I agree that they're going to probably have to take at least 3 LBs in this draft to make up their depth due to the change in defense. I probably wouldn't keep Roosevelt, that will likely be one of the final roster spots and specs will factor in a great deal. So either Ruvell Martin or a player at another position. I think it's highly unlikely Troup is kept over Heard, baring a spectacular training camp. Injuries or not, the fact of the matter is that Troup has shown exactly nothing during his 2 years in the NFL (other than chronic back problems). Heard is big, explosive, and durable, a very good guy to have for depth. Ruvell Martin has a strong chance to make the team, the Bills signed him specifically for his ST prowess. Other than SJ and Nelson though, no other WR's are "locked in". The lack of talent behind them is scary, so hopefully the Bills take at least 2 in the draft. Edited April 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I love everything, except I think McGee will be on the roster for opening day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) I hear ya. Troup/Heard and Roosevelt were players I was on the fence about as well. They probably would keep Troup, as long as he's healthy, since he is "their guy". Good job. I like your mock, but I would not be surprised at a DE prospect instead of one of your LBs, and perhaps a TE instead of one of the OTs. On the roster, I think at WR Easley, Roosevelt, and Jones are all on the bubble with Easley most likely to stick, and Roosevelt least likely. Final outcome will depend on training camp of course, but I think Clowney and Hagen have strong shots to unseat Roosevelt and Jones who did nothing much to justify their roster spots last year. Letting Ruvel Martin go would be a big surprise as he is an absoloute demon on special teams. I think Troup stays as does Heard - they like them both. It depends on what kind of shape he is in, but the Bills want him to succeed and he would get the benefit of the doubt here. I do not think Dwan Edwards sticks as a DT. If anything, Spencer Johnson makes it as that is his natural position and he can also play outside in a pinch. Kelsay and Merriman get great shots to stay. Carrington needs to step it up to stick, but like Troup, he will get every opportunity. LB and DB are really up in the air, depending on who they draft. I do agree that McGee will have a tough time making the team. OL is the returning group plus at least on OT they draft. (we better hope so anyway) Edited April 9, 2012 by MDFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 I'd be cool with that. Don't know a lot about David, but LB depth is a need. I don't see the Bills waiting until the 4th round for a OT though. Welp, we're going to have to wait until the 4th to address one of the "Big 4" needs. IMO, the middle of the draft looked much better at OT than the list from after Kalil through the 3rd round (at least based on PFW's chart). We'll see in a couple weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Oh, and I think Johnson would make it over Heard... but I'd be fine with either. Troup is as good as gone, unless he has some sort of miracle camp/pre-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) I do like Spencer Johnson a lot, and I think the Bills do too. I just don't know what they have planned for him. But that might be why he makes the team, versatility. Might have to edit him in there, as I really wanted to keep him my first go around. ACTUALLY, now that I think about it, I dont think we'll keep 6 WRs plus Smith as a part-time 7th. Im going to remove Roosevelt, and add Johnson as a DT/DE. I had wanted to keep more DL, and this is a good solution. THANKS GUYS! Edited April 9, 2012 by DrDareustein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBD Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I think it's highly unlikely Troup is kept over Heard, baring a spectacular training camp. Injuries or not, the fact of the matter is that Troup has shown exactly nothing during his 2 years in the NFL (other than chronic back problems). Heard is big, explosive, and durable, a very good guy to have for depth. Troup has shown as much as Heard, which is not much, and had a very good camp going into last season until the back issues began. If Troup can't get over the back problems I agree he's a goner, but even then I don't think Heard makes it instead of Spencer Johnson or Dwan Edwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbosrrgood Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) Oh, and I think Johnson would make it over Heard... but I'd be fine with either. Troup is as good as gone, unless he has some sort of miracle camp/pre-season. This ^. Spencer Johnson is the best of the 3, and is a natural 4-3 DT. He was playing out of position the last 2 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see both him and Heard on the team. I just don't see how you can justify wasting a roster spot on a guy like Troup, unless he actually does something to prove he deserves a roster spot. Troup has shown as much as Heard, which is not much, and had a very good camp going into last season until the back issues began. If Troup can't get over the back problems I agree he's a goner, but even then I don't think Heard makes it instead of Spencer Johnson or Dwan Edwards. I don't get how you can say that, since Troup has barely been able to get on the field, let alone make a play. And when he was on the field, he was pushed all over the place. Heard may not have made a bunch of game changing plays, but he was able to push the pocket and at least hold his ground. Just as important, Heard was healthy and on the field when we needed him. If Troup proves something, ANYTHING, on the field I'll change my mind...Until then, I'll stick with my opinion. Like I said before, Johnson is the best of the 3. Dwan Edwards might as well be considered gone already. Baring every DT currently on the roster getting hurt, I don't see how he would be in consideration. He was a 3-4 DE for his entire NFL career, and a mediocre one at best. He certainly isn't a 4-3 DE, and I don't see how he would be an effective 4-3 DT either. Plus, I think he get's paid more than the other guys. nother guy that is virtually invisible when on the field. Edited April 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Dwan Edwards is good, there's no reason to get rid of him unless you are desperate for the money he's making (I don't believe we are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bananathumb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Good draft but where and when do we get the most important ingredient - a starting QB who you can win with? Until we do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 This ^. Spencer Johnson is the best of the 3, and is a natural 4-3 DT. He was playing out of position the last 2 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see both him and Heard on the team. I just don't see how you can justify wasting a roster spot on a guy like Troup, unless he actually does something to prove he deserves a roster spot. I don't get how you can say that, since Troup has barely been able to get on the field, let alone make a tackle. Heard may not have made a bunch of game changing plays, but he was able to push the pocket and at least make his presence known on the field. Just as important, Heard was healthy and on the field when we needed him. If Troup proves something, ANYTHING, on the field I'll change my mind...Until then, I'll stick with my opinion. Like I said before, Johnson is the best of the 3. Dwan Edwards might as well be considered gone already. Baring every DT currently on the roster getting hurt, I don't see how he would be in consideration. Johnson is getting up in years, though and probably is making considerably more than Troup or Heard. I am not saying that he will or won't make the team, but I think his age will work against him in comparison to the younger guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Good draft but where and when do we get the most important ingredient - a starting QB who you can win with? Until we do... Fitzpatrick showed he could win games when healthy, and when players around him are healthy. There's no reason to stop progress for the sake of a QB improvement right this second. If he fails this season, we'll have a good solid foundation to bring in a QB to be our "future". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts