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Unbiased, mathematically calculated, Week 2 "Power Rankings"


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Bills at #5, take a gander: http://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/klo6y/unbiased_mathematically_calculated_week_2_rankings/

 

The formula used is posted there as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-2-dvoa-ratings

 

By far the most accurate on the internet. 6th overall, adjusted to 13th using other historical data and certain preseason statistics. I would say both are accurate. We played as the 6th best team considering performance and schedule combined, but long term a 13th ranking seems accurate. I hope we can flirt with 10 or below.

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#5 ? that's laughable. Not until the defeat the Pat.riots should they be that high. It is only week 2. Be happy with 10 through 14.

 

Based on statistics and the formula used by the original poster, 5 is accurate. I guess there are pretty wild swings in the rankings until week 4-5 though.

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From a very quick glance, the thing it seems to be missing is a component going to who your opponent was and how good/tough they are, which to me is an important component....

 

I know the kid who is putting this list together is still working the kinks out of his/her formula, but it looks like he/she is at least attempting to account for strength of opponent with this part of the formula: Total points is calculated by ((winning % * 1.5) + (pt diff / 50) + (off stat) - (def stat) + (rush stat) + (pass stat) + (spec stat)) + (avg of all previous opponents totals / 2)

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Not to call the Pats overrated, because they certainley are not, but did you see that their two wins came against two of the lowest rated teams (MIA and SD) with Def ranks of 32 and 30. Could explain the video game type numbers that Brady has been putting up.

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I know the kid who is putting this list together is still working the kinks out of his/her formula, but it looks like he/she is at least attempting to account for strength of opponent with this part of the formula: Total points is calculated by ((winning % * 1.5) + (pt diff / 50) + (off stat) - (def stat) + (rush stat) + (pass stat) + (spec stat)) + (avg of all previous opponents totals / 2)

 

 

Thanks, didn't see that originally....

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