Yet another thread on draft thoughts, scenarios

[tonyjustbcuz]

My first pick at #3 would be Bowers (Dareus if Bowers is gone) & then take Kaepernick at 34.

 

 

 

Short, Simple, and so good! I am good with either Dareus or Bowers and QB "K" seems like a good choice to me as well! I'd be happy with that draft after just two picks! Thanks for your reply..

 

We did dreaft Maybin and Wittner under similar circumstances.

 

 

Yes, and how did those reaches turn out?? lol...Thanks for your reply.

[tonyjustbcuz]

I know this thread is more about who the Bills will surprise people with at the 3 pick, but, the more I consider our needs, the more I wish Buddy Nix could find a way to trade down some and pick up an extra second round pick. My reasoning is simple: the guys that could really help us aren't necessarily 3 picks. Guys like Cam Jordan, Quinn or Von Miller, or a QB - one of these guys could probably be had at around 8-10. Now, if we're sitting at 8-10 already I'd be complaining, only because there's no compensation in the form of extra picks to be there; I'm just thinking that guys like Phil Taylor, Martez Wilson, one of the QB's like Mallet or Locker - the fringe 2nd rounders, there are a group of guys we would do well to get with our second pick that are close to where we'll be drafting, but might be gone just five to ten picks earlier, that could make a great one-two punch with our first picks.

Either way, the cards might fall right for us. It is a very deep draft and we should be picking starters until round 4, I think.

Anyway, there are a lot of potentially great picks in the first 2/3 rounds this year. More than we'll see in next year's draft, I think. So, I believe, even if we have to give up something in next years draft, we should do what we can to trade up a little to grab where the strength is this year, and walk out of the first few rounds with a combination of guys like Dareus/Cam Jordan, Phil Taylor, Martez Wilson, Peterson, Paea, Kelvin Sheppard, Miller, Quinn, Sturdinvant, Heyward - these guys will be going in the first 3 rounds. If we can manage to walk away with a DE, NT, and ILB out of the bunch, preferably both ILB and OLB by round 4, then we can add them to our young front seven and not worry about it again for five years. Go with what the draft has to offer. This year it's big defensemen.

And, I think, it's a deep draft for QB's - we might see a good one fall.

 

 

Yeah, I have some similar ideas, and think that the idea of trading down some is an astute idea, as long as their is a willing trade partner that will properly compensate us to exchange first round picks. In my topic last week I did "Tony's one and only mock draft" as my Topic and I included a trade with the 49'ers at I believe #7. In return we picked up an extra 2nd round pick which is #45 pick in the draft and a 3rd rounder for the 2012 draft.

 

In that Mock I had us picking Von Miller, and picked up mixed reviews on my first pick. I like everything he has shown, but some feel he is undersized and after reading up more..that may be true. One thing is for sure in this draft though and opinions vary of course, but there is no consensus #1 pick like there was in Andrew Luck. If you look at it realistically there are many potential superstars picked to be in the top 5, but only 5 of them are selected which means somebody's getting value at picks #6-10 or further! I've seen Patrick Peterson, AJ Green, Nick Fairley, DA'Quan Bowers, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, and possibly a few other...So we should be able to get someone fantastic at #7 or even possibly #9 or more! So I agree with you that if we can get an additional 2nd rounder and still have someone like Dareus, or Von Miller fall to us would leave me a smile like the Cat that ate the Canary!

 

The reason I think San Francisco could be a trade partner in the first is San Fran's new coach also being the former coach of Stanford tried hard to recruit Blaine Gabbert prior to getting Andrew Luck to sign up with Stanford. I think the first year 49er coach is going to want to have his (QB) guy as the 49ers franchise QB, and I believe if someone else looks like they will possibly draft Blaine Gabbert, that S.Fran will be desperate to trade-up and get the guy that they want in a QB.

 

So in the big picture, I think your right...making a trade within the top 10 picks is a very good idea to consider unless the Bills clear-cut guy whomever that is..is there at #3 (which is good odds that he is! being the third pick..lol).

[3rdand12]

Dareus. No Fairly. Bowers i am ok with. Von miller has gone the other way for me and i think he might work for us. He did carry more weight at the combine and did not lose a step. His mind is right too.

That said if we draft QB this time i might cry a little.

The corner back wide rec scenario seems silly but i would not be surpised. The teams FO has grown up alittle since last draft and of course i hold out hope.

There was some good reading here thanks, op !

One thing is clear to me is that we want get big in the middle. I was so glad to hear that from Nix. Now thats my kinda football!! we can add more speed on the outside later on if we see the need.

[Alphadawg7]

Again...throwing to previous nobodies, free agent rookies, having no tight end threat, no running game threat, no shortened fields. Sorry, but fans who try to downplay Fitzpatrick's very solid 2010 season know very little about the game of football.

 

Throwing to nobodys? First off, Evans is hardly a nobody (just ask the DC's who still double him every play)...and just because SJ had not broken out previously doesnt make him a nobody and not capable of breaking out. So the fact SJ had a good season doesnt mean that it only happened because of Fitz...hell it might have happened sooner on another team.

 

In addition, there is no way GB wins the SB with Fitz at the helm instead of Rodgers, and thats with Elite talent around him on both sides of the ball...in fact, they probably would not have even made it to the playoffs let alone the SB as it took Rodgers carrying that team to even squeak in to the playoffs.

 

Second, he was below average is just about EVERY passing category outside of over glorified TD total that is heavily padded by a fluke game in Cincy where he was ATROCIOUS until both starting safeties left the game and one stand out game in Balt. He had way more bad games than good games, has a pretty weak TD to TO ratio, his avg TD's per game this year in the other 11 games was not very impressive and neither is his career averages.

 

He has never been accurate and still isnt, not to mention he is inaccurate on a high percentage of his completed throws where recievers have to break their routes to make the catch preventing them from making more plays after the catch.

 

There is literally no single stat outside of TD TOTAL that you can hang your hat on and that number is skewed because his WEEK TO WEEK performance doesnt come close to what you are trying to make 23 TD's in 13 games appear to indicate. But if you break each game down you no longer have a leg to stand on, so you insist on focusing on the TD totals because thats the only way he looks effective.

 

He plays with heart, he plays with guts, and I respect that...but its pretty ignorant on your part to say that people dont know anything about football because they dont share the same man crush you do.

[Orton's Arm]

Did you not read all of the the parameters I listed? So 23 TDs in 13 games is now considered a mediocre to bad performance by the Einsteins here?...LOL He ranked 13th in TDs thrown and that's with three less games than everybody else. If he played three extra games and averaged his TDs thrown he'd have been right behind Aaron Rodgers. Look, you can go ga ga and drool over Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton all you want, the Bills need the adults in the room to pick Fairley, Dareus, Miller, Quinn or Bowers as their first round selection and let some other team waste four years on these wannabe QBs. Our team needs to grow up and start making intelligent decisions.

I'm not a big fan of using TD passes as a way of evaluating QBs. The TD passes stat is going to be heavily biased in favor of those QBs whose offensive coordinators call a lot of passing plays when near the endzone; and biased against QBs whose offensive coordinators tend to run the ball when near the endzone.

 

My favorite single stat for QB evaluation is yards per attempt. There's almost nothing a QB can do to inflate or distort that particular stat. If (for example) Trent Edwards dumps the ball off for a two yard gain, his completion percentage for the play is 100%. But his yards per attempt for that play is only two yards--so he's only being credited with whatever he accomplished. No more and no less.

 

Bearing the above in mind, Trent Edwards has a career yards per attempt percentage of 6.5. Chad Henne has a career average of 6.6, and Matt Leinart has a career average of 6.5.

 

To put that into perspective, Aaron Rodgers has a career yards per attempt average of 7.9. That is admittedly an extremely high average, making him one of the very best QBs in the league. Joe Flacco's yards per attempt average is 7.2, and Jay Cutler's average is also 7.2.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick's career average is 6.0, and this past season he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. That average is slightly better than the Trent Edwards/Chad Henne/Matt Leinart category, correctly indicating that he played better than a standard-issue year from one of those three. Last season Fitzpatrick was about halfway between the Edwards/Leinart category and the Joe Flacco category; and was worlds away from the Aaron Rodgers category!

 

Fitz does a lot of things well. He's a good decision-maker, is excellent at pre-snap reads, is highly intelligent, gets rid of the ball in a hurry, and throws it to the guy he's supposed to throw it to. Those and other reasons why he's a significant upgrade over Edwards. But there's one thing Fitz is not, and that's a consistently accurate passer. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any examples of a QB who wasn't an accurate passer after six years in the league, who then suddenly became an accurate passer later in his career. Fitz's lack of accuracy is why his numbers from 2010 were only halfway between Edwards numbers and Flacco numbers.

 

Over the past 10 - 15 years, almost every Super Bowl winner has had a franchise QB. Those which did not either obtained a Pro Bowl season from their QB the year they won the Super Bowl (Bucs, 2002) or else had one of the three best defenses in NFL history (Ravens, 2000).

 

The Bills do not now have a franchise QB. There are very few franchise QBs who seem to be available on the immediate horizon. Luck will be in the 2012 draft, but how likely are the Bills to be in a position to take him?

 

Until the Bills obtain a franchise QB, they're going to be effectively locked out of opportunities to win the Super Bowl. (Let's be realistic here: the Bills will not replicate the Ravens defense of 2000 any time soon.) Even after the Bills draft or otherwise obtain their franchise QB, they'll continue to be locked out of opportunities to win the Super Bowl until that rookie QB has had a year or three to adjust to the NFL. Whichever year you want to win the Super Bowl, you have to have drafted your franchise QB at least a year or two before that. (And probably more.) Getting a franchise QB this year means that we'd be getting the ball rolling, and would put ourselves in position to receive franchise-level QB play in a few years' time.

 

I don't claim to know if Gabbert or some other QB is going to be a franchise guy. But if the Bills feel reasonably comfortable that a particular QB will be a franchise guy, they have to take him. Period. Competence within the defensive front-7 and at RT can be obtained in rounds 2 - 7, with additional help coming in subsequent drafts.

[3rdand12]

Throwing to nobodys? First off, Evans is hardly a nobody (just ask the DC's who still double him every play)...and just because SJ had not broken out previously doesnt make him a nobody and not capable of breaking out. So the fact SJ had a good season doesnt mean that it only happened because of Fitz...hell it might have happened sooner on another team.

 

In addition, there is no way GB wins the SB with Fitz at the helm instead of Rodgers, and thats with Elite talent around him on both sides of the ball...in fact, they probably would not have even made it to the playoffs let alone the SB as it took Rodgers carrying that team to even squeak in to the playoffs.

 

Second, he was below average is just about EVERY passing category outside of over glorified TD total that is heavily padded by a fluke game in Cincy where he was ATROCIOUS until both starting safeties left the game and one stand out game in Balt. He had way more bad games than good games, has a pretty weak TD to TO ratio, his avg TD's per game this year in the other 11 games was not very impressive and neither is his career averages.

 

He has never been accurate and still isnt, not to mention he is inaccurate on a high percentage of his completed throws where recievers have to break their routes to make the catch preventing them from making more plays after the catch.

 

There is literally no single stat outside of TD TOTAL that you can hang your hat on and that number is skewed because his WEEK TO WEEK performance doesnt come close to what you are trying to make 23 TD's in 13 games appear to indicate. But if you break each game down you no longer have a leg to stand on, so you insist on focusing on the TD totals because thats the only way he looks effective.

 

He plays with heart, he plays with guts, and I respect that...but its pretty ignorant on your part to say that people dont know anything about football because they dont share the same man crush you do.

Please do not think i am being rude, well maybe i am little. But did you watch him play? Did you watch the pocket collapse often, the totally unblocked defensive players coming at him full steam alot and hit him often. The throws into places that was mostly risk because that was all there was. etc. The dropped big passes by Evans and Johnson

I dislike stats more and more unless you can read behind them. And for that you gotta watch the games. I liked what i saw from the boy. And he made passes that looked awful, but he had some beauties that some were caught and some weren't. He's a hell of a buffalo bill.

[Bring Back Kelly]

If you think Blaine Gabbert is better than Newton you may need to see a physician as soon as possible you maybe coming down with a head cold cuz your a lil sick in the head... Nobody ever heard of Gabbert until Luck didn't declare. Its like on Monday Luck was unsure nobody knew Gabbert, Tuesday Luck said no NFL, Wednesday Gabbert was on ESPN... Gabberts a true nobody...

If you have been paying any attention to the combine, You will know that when teams interviewed Gabbert, he blew them away with football knowledge. He was not on a great team, but he is a talent, All the tape on him proves that. Yes his name sounds gay, but this guy is a good football player. He will not be a bust, Cam Newton is Athletic, and has good mechanics, but so was Losman coming out of college. We need a smart guy and a talented player. All the talk about losman coming out of college was that he was cocky too. Newton sounds a bit cocky. Entertainer and Icon? what a fool. That wont fly here in Buffalo. We will eat him up ounce he falters. It's what happens in Buffalo. Play it safe and draft a good D-Linman.

[1billsfan]

Throwing to nobodys? First off, Evans is hardly a nobody (just ask the DC's who still double him every play)...and just because SJ had not broken out previously doesnt make him a nobody and not capable of breaking out. So the fact SJ had a good season doesnt mean that it only happened because of Fitz...hell it might have happened sooner on another team.

 

In addition, there is no way GB wins the SB with Fitz at the helm instead of Rodgers, and thats with Elite talent around him on both sides of the ball...in fact, they probably would not have even made it to the playoffs let alone the SB as it took Rodgers carrying that team to even squeak in to the playoffs.

 

Second, he was below average is just about EVERY passing category outside of over glorified TD total that is heavily padded by a fluke game in Cincy where he was ATROCIOUS until both starting safeties left the game and one stand out game in Balt. He had way more bad games than good games, has a pretty weak TD to TO ratio, his avg TD's per game this year in the other 11 games was not very impressive and neither is his career averages.

 

He has never been accurate and still isnt, not to mention he is inaccurate on a high percentage of his completed throws where recievers have to break their routes to make the catch preventing them from making more plays after the catch.

 

There is literally no single stat outside of TD TOTAL that you can hang your hat on and that number is skewed because his WEEK TO WEEK performance doesnt come close to what you are trying to make 23 TD's in 13 games appear to indicate. But if you break each game down you no longer have a leg to stand on, so you insist on focusing on the TD totals because thats the only way he looks effective.

 

He plays with heart, he plays with guts, and I respect that...but its pretty ignorant on your part to say that people dont know anything about football because they dont share the same man crush you do.

 

 

"he had way more bad games than good games"

 

That right there is what I'm talking about when I say that someone knows very little about the game of football. Fitzpatrick had a very good year and to say otherwise is just being plain ignorant. Also, to play your nonsense switching rolls game, Aaron Rodgers would have had a very hard time matching Fitzpatrick's numbers if he were inserted into this starting lineup of a pitiful team two games into the 2010 season. Tell us, how many TDs do you think Rodgers would have had in those 13 games with no running game, a lousy #1 in Evans and no name backups before the season began?

[Alphadawg7]

Please do not think i am being rude, well maybe i am little. But did you watch him play? Did you watch the pocket collapse often, the totally unblocked defensive players coming at him full steam alot and hit him often. The throws into places that was mostly risk because that was all there was. etc. The dropped big passes by Evans and Johnson

I dislike stats more and more unless you can read behind them. And for that you gotta watch the games. I liked what i saw from the boy. And he made passes that looked awful, but he had some beauties that some were caught and some weren't. He's a hell of a buffalo bill.

 

Not at all...its a discussion, and you and everyone else is entitled to their opinnion. Your question is a legit question, so no offense taken. To answer your question, yes, I watched every game as I am sure many people on here did. The post you replied too certainly makes it appear as if I dont think Fitz did anything right, and thats mainly because I was directly responding about specifics to someone elses post, especially the part about how no one knows anything about football unless they share his opinnion on Fitz.

 

There are positives to Fitzs game like you mentioned like his decision making and ability to read the D. Unfortunately his talent level hasnt been at a level that allows him to be consistent enough to take advantage of those traits. It doesnt do us any good if he makes a good adjustment at the LOS pre snap then misses the open reciever or throws into a defender. I know a lot of things I need to do during my golf swing, but that doesnt make me a good golfer as you still need to be able to execute.

 

I already put a thread up about the myth of the dropped passes. He was in the bottom half of the league in having WR's drop balls, and the highest rated QB's in both rating and accuarcy had by far the most drops by WR's in the league. So dropped balls are an excuse made for him that just is not accurate, but understandable given the high profile of SJ's dropped pass saga in Pitt.

 

Point is, the obstacles he went through are no different then the obstacles of quarterbacks around the league year in and year out and all his key statisical categories were in the bottom half of the league (outside TD total) and consistent with his career averages.

 

When I watched him play I saw a guy who definitely struggles with accuracy, even on completed passes, short passes, and even screens. One thing I noticed a lot is when he wanted to make a tight throw he had to reach back and put everything he could on it with a big wind up. The zip to put the ball in tight places is not something that comes natural for him and when he tries to put so much into a throw it makes it harder to accurately deliver the ball. If you golf you will know what I mean...its like a guy who pulls out his driver and tries to swing as hard as he can to hit the ball which severlely lowers his accuracy...when he pulls it off it looks great, but too often he misses the mark.

 

I saw a lot of completed passes not go for essential first downs because he got the ball there in a spot forcing the reciever to break his route to make the catch allowing the defender to close and make the tackle. I saw a lot of plays that could have gone for big gains, even TD's but didnt because the ball was not accurately delivered. This is a big reason why his YPA is so low.

 

So while I commend Fitz for his stylf of play, I just dont think he has the tools to play at a high enough level consistently enough to make us a contender again.

 

"he had way more bad games than good games"

 

That right there is what I'm talking about when I say that someone knows very little about the game of football. Fitzpatrick had a very good year and to say otherwise is just being plain ignorant. Also, to play your nonsense switching rolls game, Aaron Rodgers would have had a very hard time matching Fitzpatrick's numbers if he were inserted into this starting lineup of a pitiful team two games into the 2010 season. Tell us, how many TDs do you think Rodgers would have had in those 13 games with no running game, a lousy #1 in Evans and no name backups before the season began?

 

Really? Your reply is to just once again repeat that anyone who doesnt think he had a "VERY GOOD" year is just ignorant? Then you follow it up with implying that Rodgers would not have done any better here than Fitz? And you call others ignorant or that they know nothing about football

 

Your post isnt even worth addressing further...so we will agree to disagree and leave it at that

Edited March 6, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[3rdand12]

You sir are first a gentleman and i am glad to read your well spoken retort.

I think i was jumping in the middle again. But i am quick to defend him

because he was the source of hope this past season.

To be honestly considered i do not think most of us know what he is capable of yet. I feel we need to give him a chance with a even somewhat stable offensive line. This would be a good year to see if he can throw. He may not be any better when he has all day and we have a solid running game. He may not.

But i think we will be a little better at protection and run this year. Well i hope so. i might differ in opinion a Bit on his passes but no too much. He will have to play better and cannot get by on just courage.

[1billsfan]

Not at all...its a discussion, and you and everyone else is entitled to their opinnion. Your question is a legit question, so no offense taken. To answer your question, yes, I watched every game as I am sure many people on here did. The post you replied too certainly makes it appear as if I dont think Fitz did anything right, and thats mainly because I was directly responding about specifics to someone elses post, especially the part about how no one knows anything about football unless they share his opinnion on Fitz.

 

There are positives to Fitzs game like you mentioned like his decision making and ability to read the D. Unfortunately his talent level hasnt been at a level that allows him to be consistent enough to take advantage of those traits. It doesnt do us any good if he makes a good adjustment at the LOS pre snap then misses the open reciever or throws into a defender. I know a lot of things I need to do during my golf swing, but that doesnt make me a good golfer as you still need to be able to execute.

 

I already put a thread up about the myth of the dropped passes. He was in the bottom half of the league in having WR's drop balls, and the highest rated QB's in both rating and accuarcy had by far the most drops by WR's in the league. So dropped balls are an excuse made for him that just is not accurate, but understandable given the high profile of SJ's dropped pass saga in Pitt.

 

Point is, the obstacles he went through are no different then the obstacles of quarterbacks around the league year in and year out and all his key statisical categories were in the bottom half of the league (outside TD total) and consistent with his career averages.

 

When I watched him play I saw a guy who definitely struggles with accuracy, even on completed passes, short passes, and even screens. One thing I noticed a lot is when he wanted to make a tight throw he had to reach back and put everything he could on it with a big wind up. The zip to put the ball in tight places is not something that comes natural for him and when he tries to put so much into a throw it makes it harder to accurately deliver the ball. If you golf you will know what I mean...its like a guy who pulls out his driver and tries to swing as hard as he can to hit the ball which severlely lowers his accuracy...when he pulls it off it looks great, but too often he misses the mark.

 

I saw a lot of completed passes not go for essential first downs because he got the ball there in a spot forcing the reciever to break his route to make the catch allowing the defender to close and make the tackle. I saw a lot of plays that could have gone for big gains, even TD's but didnt because the ball was not accurately delivered. This is a big reason why his YPA is so low.

 

So while I commend Fitz for his stylf of play, I just dont think he has the tools to play at a high enough level consistently enough to make us a contender again.

 

 

 

Really? Your reply is to just once again repeat that anyone who doesnt think he had a "VERY GOOD" year is just ignorant? Then you follow it up with implying that Rodgers would not have done any better here than Fitz? And you call others ignorant or that they know nothing about football

 

Your post isnt even worth addressing further...so we will agree to disagree and leave it at that

 

This game is all about throwing touchdowns. Pick it apart all you want, but that's what he did. If he were given those three extra games he would have probably end up with 27 TDs. That's a very good season. Is it Brady, Brees or Manning good? No, but if that's kind of production you're looking for then Gabbert or Newton certainly will never ever attain those kind of lofty numbers. Neither will ANY QB being drafted this year. Not sure why you are so down on the guy, other than it's a general frustration that he's not a all-timer like the ones I mentioned.

 

Fitzpatrick will have this next season to prove that 2010 wasn't a fluke. Of course according to you, he had a bad season so you'll need to see a 35-40 TD season for you to be satisfied he's the man.

 

Now let me be clear, I don't think he's got Brady, Brees or Manning game. But I do think he's got Eli Manning type level of game. If he doesn't show a consistent high level of game in 2011, then the Bills will probably be picking a QB in next year's draft. For now let's get him a running game and a defense and see what happens.

[Alphadawg7]

This game is all about throwing touchdowns. Pick it apart all you want, but that's what he did. If he were given those three extra games he would have probably end up with 27 TDs. That's a very good season. Is it Brady, Brees or Manning good? No, but if that's kind of production you're looking for then Gabbert or Newton certainly will never ever attain those kind of lofty numbers. Neither will ANY QB being drafted this year. Not sure why you are so down on the guy, other than it's a general frustration that he's not a all-timer like the ones I mentioned.

 

Fitzpatrick will have this next season to prove that 2010 wasn't a fluke. Of course according to you, he had a bad season so you'll need to see a 35-40 TD season for you to be satisfied he's the man.

 

Now let me be clear, I don't think he's got Brady, Brees or Manning game. But I do think he's got Eli Manning type level of game. If he doesn't show a consistent high level of game in 2011, then the Bills will probably be picking a QB in next year's draft. For now let's get him a running game and a defense and see what happens.

 

For someone so certain everyone is ignorant, you sure can't seem to understand any piece of logical explanation anyone provides you and just want to stomp your feet. No one is saying he needs to throw 35-40 TD's. What we are saying is that you are OVER valuing his 23 TD's considering EIGHT came in 2 games, one of which he was atrocious in until both starting safeties left the game. He also got 3 meaningless garbage time TD's in 3 blowout losses in the final minute or two of the game.

 

In other words, his 23 total TD's are no where near as meaningful as you want to weigh them as. His TD production on a game by game basis was not very good, and his TOTALS are inflated by two games which were clearly not his normal production. Do you even realize that about HALF his TOTAL TD's came in his first 4 games, 3 of which we were blown out in?

 

Again, this is why you solely focus on the totals rather than a game by game analysis, because you need those totals to try and make others look ignorant while ignoring his 9th in the league INT total despite only playing 13 games, his below average ranking in just about every other statistical category that matters to a QB, and the fact that all those numbers are right in line with his career averages.

[Orton's Arm]

"he had way more bad games than good games"

 

That right there is what I'm talking about when I say that someone knows very little about the game of football. Fitzpatrick had a very good year and to say otherwise is just being plain ignorant. Also, to play your nonsense switching rolls game, Aaron Rodgers would have had a very hard time matching Fitzpatrick's numbers if he were inserted into this starting lineup of a pitiful team two games into the 2010 season. Tell us, how many TDs do you think Rodgers would have had in those 13 games with no running game, a lousy #1 in Evans and no name backups before the season began?

I strongly disagree with the bolded statement. Like I wrote in my earlier post, Fitz put up 6.8 yards per attempt this past season. Aaron Rodgers' career average is 7.9, and this past season he put up a staggering 8.3 yards per attempt.

 

You could say that Fitz didn't have a great running game to take pressure off the passing game. But let's look at some stats. Fred Jackson averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2010. The starting running back for most of the Packers' season, Brandon Jackson, averaged 3.7 yards per carry. You tell me which quarterback was burdened with the worse running game.

 

The Bills' offensive line had serious problems in 2010. But you could say the same thing about the Packers' OL.

 

You described guys like Stevie Johnson and David Nelson as "no name backups." But the question we need to be asking is not, "how much had players like Johnson proven prior to the 2010 season?" Instead we should ask, "how well did Johnson and the other receivers play in 2010, and was WR a source of strength, weakness, or somewhere in between?" I'd argue that the Bills got reasonably solid overall play from their receiving corps in 2010--significantly better play, in fact, than they'd received in 2009. Green Bay's receiving corps played better still, a fact which no doubt accounts for some of the statistical difference between Rodgers' and Fitz's 2010 seasons. But I'd argue that the overwhelming majority of that difference was due to differences in the quality of QB play.

 

Finally there's coaching. Chan Gailey is an expert at getting better statistical performances out of QBs than they tend to deliver either before or after their time with him. Guys like Tyler Thigpen and Jay Fiedler played well under Chan, only to revert to obscurity after they no longer had the benefit of his coaching and play calling. Rodgers received good coaching in Green Bay as well, so that's probably a wash.

[Alphadawg7]

You sir are first a gentleman and i am glad to read your well spoken retort.

I think i was jumping in the middle again. But i am quick to defend him

because he was the source of hope this past season.

To be honestly considered i do not think most of us know what he is capable of yet. I feel we need to give him a chance with a even somewhat stable offensive line. This would be a good year to see if he can throw. He may not be any better when he has all day and we have a solid running game. He may not.

But i think we will be a little better at protection and run this year. Well i hope so. i might differ in opinion a Bit on his passes but no too much. He will have to play better and cannot get by on just courage.

 

Same to you sir. I understand the defense of him, hell, I like the guy and how he plays and root for him too. I just don't see enough in him on a talent level to be consistent enough to feel he is the right answer long term. He very well could make big strides this year, and nothing would make me happier as I like him and we need a QB. I just don't think this will be the case, not for a lack of effort, just don't think his cieling is much higher then what we have seen. So hopefully he proves the doubters wrong, myself included, but until he does I am of the belief that the QB position needs to be addressed. Addressing it early in this draft is ideal if we can get the right prospect as he could sit a year or two behind Fitz.

[1billsfan]

For someone so certain everyone is ignorant, you sure can't seem to understand any piece of logical explanation anyone provides you and just want to stomp your feet. No one is saying he needs to throw 35-40 TD's. What we are saying is that you are OVER valuing his 23 TD's considering EIGHT came in 2 games, one of which he was atrocious in until both starting safeties left the game. He also got 3 meaningless garbage time TD's in 3 blowout losses in the final minute or two of the game.

 

In other words, his 23 total TD's are no where near as meaningful as you want to weigh them as. His TD production on a game by game basis was not very good, and his TOTALS are inflated by two games which were clearly not his normal production. Do you even realize that about HALF his TOTAL TD's came in his first 4 games, 3 of which we were blown out in?

 

Again, this is why you solely focus on the totals rather than a game by game analysis, because you need those totals to try and make others look ignorant while ignoring his 9th in the league INT total despite only playing 13 games, his below average ranking in just about every other statistical category that matters to a QB, and the fact that all those numbers are right in line with his career averages.

 

 

Not "everyone" feels that Fitzpatrick had a bad season. In fact, very few here would agree with your assessment.

 

This just in, the NFL has just added "Meaningful TDs" to the official list of passing stats...LOL

 

I love watching the verbal gymnastics you two are doing to try and prove a point that's not even in the realm of being credible.

Edited March 6, 2011 by 1billsfan

[3rdand12]

Same to you sir. I understand the defense of him, hell, I like the guy and how he plays and root for him too. I just don't see enough in him on a talent level to be consistent enough to feel he is the right answer long term. He very well could make big strides this year, and nothing would make me happier as I like him and we need a QB. I just don't think this will be the case, not for a lack of effort, just don't think his cieling is much higher then what we have seen. So hopefully he proves the doubters wrong, myself included, but until he does I am of the belief that the QB position needs to be addressed. Addressing it early in this draft is ideal if we can get the right prospect as he could sit a year or two behind Fitz.

The upside of Ryan is not just that he might well carry us into a winning attitude but he appears to me what should be a great teacher for years to come . As a qb coach if he can stay with Chan. So when we get "The guy" Ryan will be an asset, and that may well turn out to be his strength.

I had hopes for Brohm, not so much any more. And what is our Levi doing? have not heard a word about him from Buffalo Central.

So we need to get one but i think we have the luxury of not hurrying this. I mean we are hoping for a winning season next year and righting the ship. We have many positions to address we can all agree. thanks. I am a liitle fond of Kaepernick and maybe have some hope for Ponder. But whatever we do i hope it regains our enthusiasm

[Captain Hindsight]

I was talking about this with my brother the other day. Fitz has never had a chance to be the guy until this year. He has never had a full offseason as the unquestioned starter and gotten every rep in mini camp, TC, and preseason. Last season he played well and the season before he played better than Trent (which isnt saying much but still) he played decently on a bad team in cinci too.

 

The point is this is his chance to prove he can be a viable starter for a number of years here. He enters this year as "the guy". Now he could walk out this year and flop, but based on what ive seen from Fitz and hearing whats said about him by his coaches and teammates, I doubt he will flop and think he will be a solid starter and suddenly QB isnt a need.

 

 

But I'm only Captain Hindsight so I wont know til after we win the super bowl

[Alphadawg7]

I was talking about this with my brother the other day. Fitz has never had a chance to be the guy until this year. He has never had a full offseason as the unquestioned starter and gotten every rep in mini camp, TC, and preseason. Last season he played well and the season before he played better than Trent (which isnt saying much but still) he played decently on a bad team in cinci too.

 

The point is this is his chance to prove he can be a viable starter for a number of years here. He enters this year as "the guy". Now he could walk out this year and flop, but based on what ive seen from Fitz and hearing whats said about him by his coaches and teammates, I doubt he will flop and think he will be a solid starter and suddenly QB isnt a need.

 

 

But I'm only Captain Hindsight so I wont know til after we win the super bowl

 

Well bad news on this then...Fitz is most likely not entering the season as "the guy". Chan and Nix have already said they want to find a franchise guy. They fluff it all up to not rattle Fitz too much by saying they are happy with him, but want to find a guy for the next 10 years because Fitz is getting up there in age. First off, Fitz is ONLY 28, he is by no means on the downside of his carer and if they really believed in him he could easily be the man for the next 8 to 10 years, especially in todays NFL.

 

Anyone who sees the Nix and Gaileys statements as some kind huge endorsement of their belief in him are just viewing them with rose colored glasses because it makes no sense. Its pretty clear the FO is looking for a franchise guy because they know they need one, not because of this stroy they spun that Fitz is getting up there in age.

 

I can pretty much gurantee that when a coach and FO believe in and are behind their 28 year old QB, they are not going out publicly and saying they need to use a high pick on a franchise guy when we have so many other needs. They are not looking for his heir apparent...I mean Aaron Rodgers is 27...does anyone really think that after next season is over and he is 28 the GB FO is going to be talking about drafting a QB to replace him because he is getting up there in age?

 

Truth is, they are comfortable with Fitz at the helm UNTIL they have groomed his inevitable replacement to take over. Sure its possible Fitz could take a huge leap forward next year, but if the FO thought that to be likley there would be no talk of a QB or need for a QB. If we draft a QB in round 1 or 2, Fitz isnt stupid, he knows that guy is there to be groomed to take his job in the next year or two and that he isnt "the guy" just a stop gap and mentor.

Edited March 7, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

Not "everyone" feels that Fitzpatrick had a bad season. In fact, very few here would agree with your assessment.

 

This just in, the NFL has just added "Meaningful TDs" to the official list of passing stats...LOL

 

I love watching the verbal gymnastics you two are doing to try and prove a point that's not even in the realm of being credible.

 

Come on...you are just being hilarious now. Not in the realm of credible? How can you even say that with a straight face? You dont have to agree by any means, but to say that having the opinnion that a QB who was in the bottom half to near the bottom of the league in every majore passing statistic but one didn't have quite the stellar season you want to make it out to be isnt within the realm of credible is just stupid.

 

So, you cling on to your one stat, an inflated total which does not reflect his typical outings none the less, as well as your proclamations. I choose to look at his overall performance week in and week out and am not satisfied as are many other Bills fans.

 

So again, since you continue to add no substance by any means to this conversation other than to declare you are right through various insults and rants that contain no substance on the topic what so ever, we will just have to agree to disagree.

[Tipster19]

I love this time of the year. My laptop took a dump so I'm doing this from my IPhone but I wanted some input from others on these draft selections for the Bills. Thanks.

 

1st rd #3-North Carolina DE/OLB Robert Quinn

2nd rd #34- Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick

3rd rd #68- Clemson S DeAndre McDaniel

4th rd #99- N.C. State ILB Nate Irving

4th rd #121- Stanford DT Sione Fua

5th rd #130- Citadel CB Cortez Allen

 

Thoughts?