Are safeties worth a top-5 draft pick?

[Alphadawg7]

Let's say that Troy Polamalu was coming out this year. Do YOU think he'd be worth a top 5 pick? Me, I'd run to the podium to draft him at #3 this year.

 

If you watch the Steelers at all, you already know they go from an okay team when he's out to a great team when he's playing.

 

^This^

 

Between having a few friends who are long time Steeler fans that I watch all the games with every week and having the Steelers as my D the last few years in various Fantasy Leagues...I will say I have watched my share of Steelers games with and without Troy. That D is a MUCH different team with him on the filed then when he is out. He is hands down one of the 10 best defensive players in all of football and probably top 5. You would be hard pressed to find 5 defensive players who are better than he is, more important to their team, and as impactful week in and week out.

 

How do you not draft a guy like that in the top 5?

 

But like I said previously...there just isnt a player of his caliber that comes along very often at this position...but when they do, they are certainly worthy of a top 5 selection. I am not advocating for us to take Peterson by any means...just answering the question of wheter a safety is worthy of a top 5 pick.

[BADOLBILZ]

If you redid the 2002 draft, which five players would you take over Reed?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_NFL_Draft

 

Peppers, McKinnie, Freeney?

 

Optimally, you get lineman like Peppers, McKinnie and Freeney. If a lineman pans out, the chances of that player becoming a franchise cornerstone are great.

 

I like to reference Flozell Adams. He was picked one spot before the Bills LB Sam Cowart in the second round and is still in the league and a capbable veteran.

 

Cowart's star burned bright, but short. It seems like FOREVER ago.

 

This is a problem with smaller players whose positions require such athleticism that they often aren't able to play at a high level when they lose a step.

 

I like the idea of utilizing high first round picks on lineman who are routinely still going strong after 30. Good QB's rarely flame out early either. This is how you build equity with draft picks.

 

The Bills......they draft corners and RB's in round 1. When RB's and CB's hit that second contract, teams are often torn on whether to give a 26-28 year old skill player a 5 year or longer deal. Then, they are back to the well a few years later. That's extremely counterproductive.

Edited January 21, 2011 by BADOLBILZ

[beast34]

Never? What if there are no LT, QB or RDE who are impact players and worthy of a top 5 pick. Just because those are

the premier positions doesn't mean premier talent will always be available at those positions. Who is picked should

depend on potential impact. If that's a safety so be it. Eric Berry did very well this past season.

Yes Eric Berry did well this season. Since you brought his selection at 5 by the Chiefs up, you do realize the Chiefs could of had Russell Okung at 5 and waited till the second and taken T.J Ward who the Browns drafted and moved to SS, Ward leads all rookie SS in tackles with 123, 1ff, 2int. I believe drafting a SS that high is ridiculous, they usually line up about 10 yards from the LOS, and their impact can be minimized with a good game plan. Good teams/Gm's build from the LOS out. Top ten picks shouldn't be squandered on db's, wr's or te. Picking that high normally means you have a more glaring need elsewhere.

[NoSaint]

If you redid the 2002 draft, which five players would you take over Reed?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_NFL_Draft

 

Peppers, McKinnie, Freeney?

 

In hindsight it's easy to play that game - back up qbs from Michigan are worth top 5 picks too?

 

It's about value and if the league values the top safety in the draft at 20, you don't have to take him til 19.... Even if you think hes Ed reed. The draft is an art - skill meets potential meets value. Taking a safety top 5 would be akin to taking Arian foster with a top 5 pick in your fantasy draft last year - in hindsight he didn't flop but you couldve taken him much later and had it be much more valuable.

[Kurt Warner]

I would agree the answer is almost never. The best safeties weren't top 5 picks. With early picks you have to draft unique talents. The can't miss QB or the genetic big-body freaks that are also uncommonly quick and powerful. You don't draft RBs, Safeties, Guards, linebackers or tight ends that early because they are more common body types - there are a lot of guys with similar gifts out there so you just have to find a football smart guy with heart. For example, talented RBs are often found in later rounds. Draft someone you can't find in a later round.

[truth on hold]

Revis, Woodson, Polamolu .... 3 of the 4 remaining teams have a future HoF'er in the secondary

[NoSaint]

Revis, Woodson, Polamolu .... 3 of the 4 remaining teams have a future HoF'er in the secondary

 

 

they also all have 1st rounders at qb, great linebackers, and i would bet that 3 out of 4 have really good receivers, running games, tight ends, etc....

 

the difference between us and them - we have a couple of strengths, they have a couple of weaknesses. i think you just have to target the rarest talent, that you are most certain will translate in the top 5.

 

the talent level of the safety to justify that pick has to be once in a generation, as the fall off between great and good isnt that huge because as someone said, its just a more common body type. a lot more guys are 5-11, 210 lbs and run a 4.5 but very few are 6-3 300+ lbs and run near that range.

[sllib olaffub]

Those kinds of questions are easy to argue either way, and totally depend on the context of the specific draft class and even then, the teams drafting.

 

It is relevant to ask whether the 2011 Buffalo Bills should consider taking Peterson or Prince with their #3 pick in the draft. I say only on condition. If either one is as good as Revis, and can be counted on to take away the other team's number one reciever, then sure. A corner with that kind of impact comes along once or twice a decade, I'd say.

But, if there were a Bruce Smith type defensive end, or a Warren Sapp type, high impact DT on board, also once a decade, then, in our case, you go D-line over secondary. Why? Because, secondary is almost exclusively pass related - it has to do with one half of the offense. A great D-lineman, though, can alter the opposition's game plan in both pass and run game.

 

The Giants are a perfect example, with their win over the Patriots in the Superbowl, of a team whose D-line is so dominant it can take away the passing game, too, for lack of enough time to throw. Seeing as how we cannot pressure opposing QB's that much, nor stop the run, if we have a chance to land a real monster on the D-line who can pressure the QB and stop the run, then we should jump on him. It would help us maximize K. Williams's talent, too. There's nothing worse than seeing talent like his go wasted on a team that has no one surrounding him to help. I think we've got 2 quality D-linemen in Williams and Carrington, and another two contributors in Edwards and Troupe. Throw in a real beast and it could be a strong suit.

 

Then there's the argument for drafting a QB, also, although to draft one as high as 3 he should be the next Rivers, Rodgers, Payton Manning, and not just a Sanchez or Flacco.

[NoSaint]

Those kinds of questions are easy to argue either way, and totally depend on the context of the specific draft class and even then, the teams drafting.

 

It is relevant to ask whether the 2011 Buffalo Bills should consider taking Peterson or Prince with their #3 pick in the draft. I say only on condition. If either one is as good as Revis, and can be counted on to take away the other team's number one reciever, then sure. A corner with that kind of impact comes along once or twice a decade, I'd say.

But, if there were a Bruce Smith type defensive end, or a Warren Sapp type, high impact DT on board, also once a decade, then, in our case, you go D-line over secondary. Why? Because, secondary is almost exclusively pass related - it has to do with one half of the offense. A great D-lineman, though, can alter the opposition's game plan in both pass and run game.

 

The Giants are a perfect example, with their win over the Patriots in the Superbowl, of a team whose D-line is so dominant it can take away the passing game, too, for lack of enough time to throw. Seeing as how we cannot pressure opposing QB's that much, nor stop the run, if we have a chance to land a real monster on the D-line who can pressure the QB and stop the run, then we should jump on him. It would help us maximize K. Williams's talent, too. There's nothing worse than seeing talent like his go wasted on a team that has no one surrounding him to help. I think we've got 2 quality D-linemen in Williams and Carrington, and another two contributors in Edwards and Troupe. Throw in a real beast and it could be a strong suit.

 

Then there's the argument for drafting a QB, also, although to draft one as high as 3 he should be the next Rivers, Rodgers, Payton Manning, and not just a Sanchez or Flacco.

 

also agree with these points, and would like to add that a great dline makes linebackers, corners and safeties better. a great safety can do the same but its a lot harder to clean up mistakes from guys ahead of you on the field then it is to just dominate at the point of attack.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

If he's a can't miss Troy P safety then yes, otherwise no.

[Ramius]

I'll take any absolute gamechanger regardless of position (besides K or P) in the top 5 of a draft. The point of the draft is to get superstars, regardless of position. Reed, Polamalu, Revis, Asomugha, etc would all be worth top 5 picks.

[Cash]

^This^

 

Between having a few friends who are long time Steeler fans that I watch all the games with every week and having the Steelers as my D the last few years in various Fantasy Leagues...I will say I have watched my share of Steelers games with and without Troy. That D is a MUCH different team with him on the filed then when he is out. He is hands down one of the 10 best defensive players in all of football and probably top 5. You would be hard pressed to find 5 defensive players who are better than he is, more important to their team, and as impactful week in and week out.

 

How do you not draft a guy like that in the top 5?

 

But like I said previously...there just isnt a player of his caliber that comes along very often at this position...but when they do, they are certainly worthy of a top 5 selection. I am not advocating for us to take Peterson by any means...just answering the question of wheter a safety is worthy of a top 5 pick.

 

Because it's really hard to know for sure that the tiny Samoan kid from USC with the crazy hair is going to become Troy Polamalu in the NFL.

 

I absolutely agree with you that Polamalu (or Ed Reed, or maybe Bob Sanders if he wasn't so brittle) would be worth a top 5 pick in just about any draft. And I can see a scenario where drafting a S that high would be justified (probably it's a pretty weak draft at the top). But teams get themselves into trouble when they draft guys like Roy Williams, LaRon Landry, Michael Huff, and (you guessed it) Donte Whitner in the top 10, hoping that he'll become the next Polamalu or Reed, when he just becomes a good starting safety. Game-changing safeties like Polamalu are so rare, it's very difficult to justify taking a safety with a top 10 (let alone top 5!) pick. Even if he pans out, chances are he won't be able to affect the game the way a pass-rusher or run-stuffing DT or lockdown corner would. Actually, lockdown corners are almost as rare as impact safeties, which is why you don't see a lot of corners drafted in the top 3 (although you do see a good number around 5-10).

 

If you look at the history of super-high picks, there's 2 factors at play:

 

1.) Biggest impact on the game if he pans out

2.) Lowest risk of him being a total bust

 

Since QB has by far the biggest impact of any position, it's no surprise that they go top 5 all the time. LT actually works for both, because it's the #2 most important position on offense, but even if the guy can't cut it, you can move him to RT or G and there's a good chance he'll be effective there (see Robert Gallery). Safeties are pretty low under both factors, so it's no surprise they don't get drafted much.

[Chilly]

I think a more relevant question is if there are safeties that have the your of impact your looking for at that spot. In some defensive schemes with some players, I think the answer is yes. Look at polamalus impact in pittsburgh, its worth a #5.

 

For me, there are players and situations where it would be a strong enough of a fit to warrant a #5. However, those are few and far between.

[Chimp]

Never!!! Top 5 picks should be at a franchise position either LT,QB, or RDE. Drafting in the top 5 and not taking one of those 3 positions mean's you should be trading down. I would never take a SS in the top 10 for that matter.

Ed Reed, Troy Polomalu, Ronnie Lott. I would have picked any of them top 5. I would have taken Mike Brown and Bob Sanders top five also.

[tennesseeboy]

generally no...but there are some safeties out there who are franchise players...Polamalu and Ed Reed and Bob Sanders come to mind. Eric Berry (ok ok ok...he's from Tennessee...) may turn out to be a franchise player.

 

If the question is whether we should go with Peterson as a first pick the answer is HELL NO. Peterson may be the best DB in the draft but we don't need the best DB in the draft. We need the best DE, the best DT, the best OLB or even the best qb

[NoSaint]

Ed Reed, Troy Polomalu, Ronnie Lott. I would have picked any of them top 5. I would have taken Mike Brown and Bob Sanders top five also.

 

you could say that in hindsight, but in trying to forecast that kind of performance.... its much easier to justify the risk on a rare body. rare talent may or may not transfer depending on scheme, coaching, motivations.... a rare body type is a rare body type - so you have atleast one degree of the player being special locked down. you also cant find the combo of size and speed for a special DT late, where you can find the same size and speed for a safety. coaches like to believe if you have the physical tools i can craft you into an all-pro. because of that draft strategy, it makes it especially rare for a safety, even with top 5 talent, to be rated or drafted in the top 5.