Kelly vs Fitzpatrick....seriously

[Mr. WEO]

Arizona Cardinals 2009 Warner QB

Arizona Cardinals 2010 ? QB

 

Atlanta Falcons with Vick

Atlanta Falcons 1st year without Vick

Atlanta Falcons with Matt Ryan

 

Baltimore Ravens with Kyle Boller

Baltimore Ravens with Joe Flacco

 

Miami Dolphins 2007 no QB 1-15

Miami Dolphins Pennington in a healthy 2008-division winner

 

 

The difference between having a QB & not having one is HUGE!

 

.....St. Louis.....Tampa.....KC......Chicago...................Indy.....

[PromoTheRobot]

Arizona Cardinals 2009 Warner QB

Arizona Cardinals 2010 ? QB

 

Atlanta Falcons with Vick

Atlanta Falcons 1st year without Vick

Atlanta Falcons with Matt Ryan

 

Baltimore Ravens with Kyle Boller

Baltimore Ravens with Joe Flacco

 

Miami Dolphins 2007 no QB 1-15

Miami Dolphins Pennington in a healthy 2008-division winner

 

 

The difference between having a QB & not having one is HUGE!

Had a point until you cited Chad Pennington.

 

PTR

[Bills14]

I love Fitzpatrick, but you are comparing one season from him, verses eleven from Kelly. Then, you say "aside from a couple of standout years"...so, in effect, you are saying "take away all the good years Kelly had, then he was no better than Fitzpatrick." I know, you are not trying to say that Fitzpatrick is better than Kelly was, but, as others have stated, Kelly's teams were far different (and better all the way around) than Fitz' team was, this year. Gaily pretty much relied on Fitz for everything this season, and he did pretty well. Kelly, with the exception of a few games every year, was rarely relied on, solely, to move the offense. He had a HOF running back that saw the ball a lot more, consistently, than Jackson, Spiller or Lynch did. Perhaps the biggest difference between the "golden era" Bills teams, offensively, more often than not, they were dictating the game to the defense...Fitz teams were always the underdogs...

 

 

Aside from 1991 Kelly really didn't have much of an advantage at all statistic wise of Fitz from this year so i guess i shouldn't have even said the whole couple of standout year thing, and as far as not being relied on as much Kelly had less attempts than Fitz from this year twice in his career. Granted he had a great running game and good defense to rely on as well, but i guess what i can't figure out is why we cant compare the two if fitz does the same with much much less

[Captain Caveman]

That is totally ridiculous and untrue. The two most important numbers for a QB are Wins and completion percentage. Kelly absolutely crushes Fitz in both those categories regardless of where they were drafted. the difference between %58 completion percentage and %60 is HUGE. And in his prime years, Kelly was well over %60 -- something Fitz has yet to accomplish.

 

Overall I think the comparison is flawed, but I find your comparison of the completion % to be ridiculous. Jim was throwing to Andre Reed and James Lofton in those prime years (not to mention Beebe, Metzelaars, Thurman, and Tasker.)

 

Fitz had Lee Evans and Stevie "God made me drop it" Johnson. C'mon. I'm not sure if dropped passes are kept as a stat (or if so if it was kept in the early 90s) but if it were I'd be willing to bet it would bring his completion % up to a much more respectable # in comparison with Jim.

 

Had a point until you cited Chad Pennington.

 

PTR

yup

[Buftex]

Aside from 1991 Kelly really didn't have much of an advantage at all statistic wise of Fitz from this year so i guess i shouldn't have even said the whole couple of standout year thing, and as far as not being relied on as much Kelly had less attempts than Fitz from this year twice in his career. Granted he had a great running game and good defense to rely on as well, but i guess what i can't figure out is why we cant compare the two if fitz does the same with much much less

 

Because stats don't really tell the story. And, as the cliche' goes (and it has been already stated here) wins and losses are the most important stat. If Fitz has another year or two, or three, like this past season, then you can compare...

 

I don't like the idea of comparing two players that I like, because it always seems like you are knocking one of them...but Kelly and Fitspatrick are not comperable, at this point.

[flopagamo]

It is indeed difficult to compare FitzyClaus & Jim Kelly individually, because of their supporting casts on both sides of the ball. However, I'd be interested to know what the difference was, given the time they had the ball (a time-of-possession comparison). The bend-but-don't-break D of the Kelly years seemed to be on the field a lot, especially when the K-gun was in top form and scoring quickly. Of course, if FitzyClaus doesn't start piling up the wins, there's not a lot of point in comparing them.

[CosmicBills]

Overall I think the comparison is flawed, but I find your comparison of the completion % to be ridiculous. Jim was throwing to Andre Reed and James Lofton in those prime years (not to mention Beebe, Metzelaars, Thurman, and Tasker.)

 

Fitz had Lee Evans and Stevie "God made me drop it" Johnson. C'mon. I'm not sure if dropped passes are kept as a stat (or if so if it was kept in the early 90s) but if it were I'd be willing to bet it would bring his completion % up to a much more respectable # in comparison with Jim.

That's just an excuse. Brady has no top flight WRs and you can argue he never has (other than Moss). His accuracy and abilities as a QB made the WRs better. Welker is good, but he isn't a hall of famer (unless he continues to put up huge numbers for 4 more years or bags a Super Bowl MVP). And more times than not, Fitz is being bailed out by his WRs on poorly thrown balls (to the wrong shoulder, low, high etc). He throws it up so they can make plays, but he is anything but accurate -- even on his completions.

 

But fine, let's say you're right. The fact is the league is easier to pass in now than it was in the 90s. Despite that HUGE obstacle, Kelly still put up significantly better numbers in the two categories that matter most for QBs: Wins and Completion percentage.

[Captain Caveman]

That's just an excuse. Brady has no top flight WRs and you can argue he never has (other than Moss). His accuracy and abilities as a QB made the WRs better. Welker is good, but he isn't a hall of famer (unless he continues to put up huge numbers for 4 more years or bags a Super Bowl MVP). And more times than not, Fitz is being bailed out by his WRs on poorly thrown balls (to the wrong shoulder, low, high etc). He throws it up so they can make plays, but he is anything but accurate -- even on his completions.

 

But fine, let's say you're right. The fact is the league is easier to pass in now than it was in the 90s. Despite that HUGE obstacle, Kelly still put up significantly better numbers in the two categories that matter most for QBs: Wins and Completion percentage.

 

Again, I'm not saying the comparison is a good one, only that if you're going to make the comparison, a 2% difference in completion percentage is easily covered by just Stevie Jjohnson's dropped balls.

[CosmicBills]

Again, I'm not saying the comparison is a good one, only that if you're going to make the comparison, a 2% difference in completion percentage is easily covered by just Stevie Jjohnson's dropped balls.

Crunch the numbers. I think you'll find you're way off. Plus, if you're going to count those, then you have to factor in the amount of catches the WRs made that shouldn't have been caught (there were a lot of those).

[Alphadawg7]

Overall I think the comparison is flawed, but I find your comparison of the completion % to be ridiculous. Jim was throwing to Andre Reed and James Lofton in those prime years (not to mention Beebe, Metzelaars, Thurman, and Tasker.)

 

Fitz had Lee Evans and Stevie "God made me drop it" Johnson. C'mon. I'm not sure if dropped passes are kept as a stat (or if so if it was kept in the early 90s) but if it were I'd be willing to bet it would bring his completion % up to a much more respectable # in comparison with Jim.

 

 

yup

 

This is the most over stated and inaccurate thing I keep seeing as an excuse for Fitzs low completion %. I mean how many drops do you people think there were? I know as a fan it seem like a ton of drops, but in mathematical reality the number of drops in comparison to other teams and what other QB's have happen to them is not much different then what we had.

 

First off, no QB has zero dropped passes by his intended targets over a course of a season. So, what we are really talking about is the additional drops above the NFL team average of dropped passes. Truth of the matter is we as a team probably were within 5 dropped passes of the NFL average. SJ was the biggest culprit, and because he was one of our more recognized and regular offensive weapons it got blown way out of proportion as if we somehow had substantially more drops than anyone else. I watched Manning have at least 7 dropped passes in a game recently...it happens to all QB's and yet they still manage to complete a much higer percentage of passes.

 

If you give Fitz credit for even 5 additional drops above the NFL average (which is quite generous and probably too many) he still doesnt hit 60%...so other QB's have completion % substantially higher than Fitz and deal with their own dropped passes as well. So, this argument that it was low because of the drops doesn't actually hold any water when comparing to other QB's.

 

And if you want to talk about drops, then you have to talk about the more than crazy amount of dropped INT's he threw that were dead on in the hands of the defenders, even one he threw that got over turned because of a penalty unrelated to the INT. People want to say "All QB's have near INT's or dropped INT's" then talk about the WR drops as an excuse as to why his completion % is so low as if other QB's dont have the very same thing. And its true, all QB's get lucky have would be INT's dropped that should be easy INT's, but Fitz flirted with these INT's at a pretty alarming rate.

 

And lets not forget the many circus catches our guys made this year or terribly thrown balls and bailed Fitz out. His accuracy is a definite issue and he is well below where a succesful starting NFL QB needs to be in TODAYS NFL. Kelly played in an era where the RULES were DIFFERENT and it was much harder to complete passes as Defenders had many more things they could do throughout a play.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[Buftex]

Crunch the numbers. I think you'll find you're way off. Plus, if you're going to count those, then you have to factor in the amount of catches the WRs made that shouldn't have been caught (there were a lot of those).

 

 

And we know, if they tracked such things, Fitz would definitely beat Kelly in that stat!

[Orton's Arm]

I was kind of shocked to see Jim Kelly's career numbers but the strange thing is they are almost the same or WORSE every year of his career aside from a couple standout years than Fitzpatricks numbers this year. And considering Fitz sat out 3 games im pretty sure its not because the bills always had big leads and Kelly played less than Fitz. And NO i dont think Fitz is as good as Kelly but how bad could he really be if he could replicate Kelly's numbers consistantly?

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/jimkelly/profile?id=KEL581385

In my eyes, one of the most critical numbers for quarterbacks is his average yards per attempt stat. It's analogous to the yards per carry stat for running backs.

 

Trent Edwards has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt over the course of his career. Ryan Fitzpatrick's career average is 6.0 yards per attempt. This past season Fitz improved considerably, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. I think we can all agree that Fitz's play this season was considerably better than we've come to expect from Edwards; and that difference shows up in the fact that Fitz's season was 0.3 yards per attempt better than Edwards' career average.

 

Over the course of his career, Jim Kelly averaged 7.4 yards per attempt.

[K Gun Special]

This is the most over stated and inaccurate thing I keep seeing as an excuse for Fitzs low completion %. I mean how many drops do you people think there were? I know as a fan it seem like a ton of drops, but in mathematical reality the number of drops in comparison to other teams and what other QB's have happen to them is not much different then what we had.

 

First off, no QB has zero dropped passes by his intended targets over a course of a season. So, what we are really talking about is the additional drops above the NFL team average of dropped passes. Truth of the matter is we as a team probably were within 5 dropped passes of the NFL average. SJ was the biggest culprit, and because he was one of our more recognized and regular offensive weapons it got blown way out of proportion as if we somehow had substantially more drops than anyone else. I watched Manning have at least 7 dropped passes in a game recently...it happens to all QB's and yet they still manage to complete a much higer percentage of passes.

 

If you give Fitz credit for even 5 additional drops above the NFL average (which is quite generous and probably too many) he still doesnt hit 60%...so other QB's have completion % substantially higher than Fitz and deal with their own dropped passes as well. So, this argument that it was low because of the drops doesn't actually hold any water when comparing to other QB's.

 

And if you want to talk about drops, then you have to talk about the more than crazy amount of dropped INT's he threw that were dead on in the hands of the defenders, even one he threw that got over turned because of a penalty unrelated to the INT. People want to say "All QB's have near INT's or dropped INT's" then talk about the WR drops as an excuse as to why his completion % is so low as if other QB's dont have the very same thing. And its true, all QB's get lucky have would be INT's dropped that should be easy INT's, but Fitz flirted with these INT's at a pretty alarming rate.

 

And lets not forget the many circus catches our guys made this year or terribly thrown balls and bailed Fitz out. His accuracy is a definite issue and he is well below where a succesful starting NFL QB needs to be in TODAYS NFL. Kelly played in an era where the RULES were DIFFERENT and it was much harder to complete passes as Defenders had many more things they could do throughout a play.

 

 

This is absurd. Regardless of completion percentage, Kelly was one of the best of his era and his numbers were near the top for several years.

 

You cant compare his numbers to Fitz's now when the rules are different and much more offense oriented.

 

If you really think you could just transport Fitz back to those 90s Bills and have him put up the same numbers you are insane. Fitz is an avg QB and there is nothing to suggest otherwise.

 

This isnt like Kelly who was a blue chip prospect developing the first few years when he struggled. Fitz was a 7th backup QB we picked up who has a 35% winning pct and subpar #'s in everything else.

[Captain Caveman]

Crunch the numbers. I think you'll find you're way off. Plus, if you're going to count those, then you have to factor in the amount of catches the WRs made that shouldn't have been caught (there were a lot of those).

 

If I could find drops from the 1990s I would. Stevie had a lot. Googling and searching the usual sites (e.g. espn) don't even return it as a stat this year.

 

To crunch some estimated #s, if he has 2 a game which I think is low, and we're passing 33 times in a game (actual average) that's 6%. Much more than the 2% which you seem to think is a huge deal.

 

Alpha, I really disagree. I understand that every QB has dropped passes, but the Bills had multiple games with a large # of drops. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find #s, if anyone has them I'd love to see something on it.

 

If there is 1 additional drop per game it works out to about a 3% increase in completion rating though.

[Alphadawg7]

If I could find drops from the 1990s I would. Stevie had a lot. Googling and searching the usual sites (e.g. espn) don't even return it as a stat this year.

 

To crunch some estimated #s, if he has 2 a game which I think is low, and we're passing 33 times in a game (actual average) that's 6%. Much more than the 2% which you seem to think is a huge deal.

 

You act like Kelly didnt have drops too...you have to add back all of Kellys drops to if you are going to do it for Fitz...again, like I already said, the average number of drops for Fitz vs Kelly, or any of todays QB's isnt much different. They all have it happen at a very similar rate and yet all complete more passes than him by a significant marging. And 2% considering the era Kelly played in his HUGE. If Kelly played today, his completion % would be much higher than it was back then given all the rule changes to encourage better passing attacks since Kelly retired.

 

This is absurd. Regardless of completion percentage, Kelly was one of the best of his era and his numbers were near the top for several years.

 

You cant compare his numbers to Fitz's now when the rules are different and much more offense oriented.

 

If you really think you could just transport Fitz back to those 90s Bills and have him put up the same numbers you are insane. Fitz is an avg QB and there is nothing to suggest otherwise.

 

This isnt like Kelly who was a blue chip prospect developing the first few years when he struggled. Fitz was a 7th backup QB we picked up who has a 35% winning pct and subpar #'s in everything else.

 

Are you saying this topic is absurd or my post? You replied to my post which was essentially saying what you appear to be saying...

[Rayzer32]

Comparing Fitzpatrick (Mr. Turnover) to Jim Kelly??? Did I miss the free TBD crack giveaway again? I hate when that happens, but even Tyrone Biggums can see there is no comparison between these two. Wow!

[Captain Caveman]

I stand corrected, according to the only source I could find we were near the middle of the pack in drops this year, although I find it hard to believe Stevie is only credited with 7 drops.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

You act like Kelly didnt have drops too...you have to add back all of Kellys drops to if you are going to do it for Fitz...again, like I already said, the average number of drops for Fitz vs Kelly, or any of todays QB's isnt much different. They all have it happen at a very similar rate and yet all complete more passes than him by a significant marging. And 2% considering the era Kelly played in his HUGE. If Kelly played today, his completion % would be much higher than it was back then given all the rule changes to encourage better passing attacks since Kelly retired.

 

 

 

Are you saying this topic is absurd or my post? You replied to my post which was essentially saying what you appear to be saying...

 

I don't "act like Kelly didn't have drops too." I stated that the whole comparison is absurd, but that Kelly's receivers were less prone to drops. But I don't remember any receiving corps in Bills history dropping passes like they've done this year. Since I'm not going to volunteer to track down and watch tape from all of Kelly's games (and keep track of every drop) it's kind of a moot point. I also agree that it was a different era, and that receptions in general are easier to come by. I just though the assertion that the 2% difference in completion % was so important was a bit ridiculous.

 

Comparing Fitzpatrick (Mr. Turnover) to Jim Kelly??? Did I miss the free TBD crack giveaway again? I hate when that happens, but even Tyrone Biggums can see there is no comparison between these two. Wow!

 

Sometimes I used to think Jim would throw an Interception just so he'd get to tackle the poor bastard who caught it.

[Wayne Cubed]

If I could find drops from the 1990s I would. Stevie had a lot. Googling and searching the usual sites (e.g. espn) don't even return it as a stat this year.

 

To crunch some estimated #s, if he has 2 a game which I think is low, and we're passing 33 times in a game (actual average) that's 6%. Much more than the 2% which you seem to think is a huge deal.

 

Alpha, I really disagree. I understand that every QB has dropped passes, but the Bills had multiple games with a large # of drops. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find #s, if anyone has them I'd love to see something on it.

 

If there is 1 additional drop per game it works out to about a 3% increase in completion rating though.

 

Apparently It wasn't too hard for me to google them

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232

 

Looks like Wes Welker lead the NFL. Yet Brady's completion percentage was still above Fitz's.

In fact look Aaron Hernandez is on the list with 7. Thats 20 drops for Brady right there. Still about 65% completion

 

Reggie Wayne is on the list with 12 as well, yet that didn't effect Peyton's completion %

 

There are some great receivers on that list that are far ahead of Stevie. People honestly need to stop ragging on him for his dropped passes. In comparison to some ELITE receivers he seems to be just about on average with what they drop. And if you take away the 5 he had in one game, that makes his drops not seem nearly as bad.

 

I know this may not be that accurate because this is not an official NFL stat, so take it for what its worth.

Point is, drops happen in NFL games, even to ELITE NFL receivers and QBs, doesn't seem to effect there stats.

[Alphadawg7]

Do you realize that Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes and that out of the 16 teams with more dropped passes than ours that 13 of those teams had QB's with higher completion percentage than Fitz? In fact Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson.

 

In fact, 12 of those 13 QB's with more drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%...Fitz completed a lowly 57.8%.

 

So, please let this be the end of the "we had so many drops, so thats why Fitz comp % is low" excuse.

 

Funny, the team with the most credited drops in the NFL was Indy, and the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3. Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% and yet the Saints were 7th in the league with 32 drops. Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% and yet the Patriots were 4th in the league with drops.

 

Drops are not an official stat because they are so hard to credit. As fans, its easy to think more occur as they pretty much think any ball that touches any part of a WR should be caught regardless of how difficult it is or how bad the pass is. I have seen people on here talk about balls being dropped that were actually knocked out of the recievers hands by the defender making a great play. Given SJ's high profile, its not surprising to think we somehow had more drops than we did.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Alphadawg7

[Orton's Arm]

Had a point until you cited Chad Pennington.

 

PTR

He had a point even about Chad Pennington. There's a tendency among fans to over-value arm strength (which Pennington clearly lacked), and undervalue accuracy and decision-making (areas in which Pennington excelled). The single most important reason why the Dolphins have regressed since their division championship is that Henne hasn't provided the same level of QB play that Pennington did in 2008.

 

I don't like using wins to evaluate quarterbacks, because doing so makes Trent Dilfer of the Ravens (15-1) seem like a better quarterback than Joe Montana. Nor am I a big fan of the completion percentage stat; which a quarterback can always inflate by dumping the ball off. Trent Edwards has a career completion percentage of 60.5, as compared to 60.1 for Jim Kelly. Average yards per attempt is almost impossible to inflate, which is why Jim Kelly's career average in that area is so much higher than Trent Edwards' or Ryan Fitzpatrick's.

 

Fitz has good decision-making, but lacks good accuracy. I strongly agree with Alphadawg when he wrote that, "[Fitz's] accuracy is a definite issue and he is well below where a succesful starting NFL QB needs to be in TODAYS NFL."