An idea about draft strategy

[sllib olaffub]

I was listening to the radio the other day and Schoup and the Bulldog were talking about how hard it will continue to be to bring top tier free agents to Buffalo. I heard on 550 this morning - that guy on before Rome - and he was talking about how the NBA has a problem with the teams that are in the less appealing markets, because the players are all going to the teams that are either in great climates or cool cities.

 

So, it occurred to me that maybe this drafting strategy would work to offset that issue: You figure we overspend on the top free agents, having to pay maybe 20% more to get them to come here than other places. Say that is the case with most F.A.'s. So, if you have a guy who is considered top 5 in his position, and a guy top 15 in his position, then 20% of the top 5's is going to be a lot more than 20% of the mid-tier guys pay.

Now, generally, but not always - although, if our drafting would get better it should follow this way - one way to get top talent is by drafting it. Here is my strategy. If we need impact players at a few positions, why not trade up and get as many spots in the top 2 or 3 rounds as possible - assuming the impact guy is there to get, then we trade up to get him. Then, to fill in the areas we need for support, we go out and bring in more mid-tier F.A.'s.

Basically, if we can't bring them in without way overpaying, then adapt the draft strategy so that we have a shot at more truly top calibre guys, and then just bring in the role-players.

[SoggyHog]

You have to have something to trade to move up. The Bills don't have anything to trade unless it's package picks. Too many holes to fill to give multiple picks for single picks.

[PromoTheRobot]

I was listening to the radio the other day and Schoup and the Bulldog were talking about how hard it will continue to be to bring top tier free agents to Buffalo. I heard on 550 this morning - that guy on before Rome - and he was talking about how the NBA has a problem with the teams that are in the less appealing markets, because the players are all going to the teams that are either in great climates or cool cities.

 

So, it occurred to me that maybe this drafting strategy would work to offset that issue: You figure we overspend on the top free agents, having to pay maybe 20% more to get them to come here than other places. Say that is the case with most F.A.'s. So, if you have a guy who is considered top 5 in his position, and a guy top 15 in his position, then 20% of the top 5's is going to be a lot more than 20% of the mid-tier guys pay.

Now, generally, but not always - although, if our drafting would get better it should follow this way - one way to get top talent is by drafting it. Here is my strategy. If we need impact players at a few positions, why not trade up and get as many spots in the top 2 or 3 rounds as possible - assuming the impact guy is there to get, then we trade up to get him. Then, to fill in the areas we need for support, we go out and bring in more mid-tier F.A.'s.

Basically, if we can't bring them in without way overpaying, then adapt the draft strategy so that we have a shot at more truly top calibre guys, and then just bring in the role-players.

Top free agents, like #1 picks, are not always the best players to sign. One Albert Haynesworth is exhibit A. Cam Wake was a good CFL player but guaranteed to become the beast he is now. If the Bills do sign FAs they likely won't be blockbusters. Hopefully they will be the guys ready to bust out. That's where you improve with FA's. I can't think of one mega free agent that ever played up to his deal.

 

PTR

[CosmicBills]

Top free agents, like #1 picks, are not always the best players to sign. One Albert Haynesworth is exhibit A. Cam Wake was a good CFL player but guaranteed to become the beast he is now. If the Bills do sign FAs they likely won't be blockbusters. Hopefully they will be the guys ready to bust out. That's where you improve with FA's. I can't think of one mega free agent that ever played up to his deal.

 

PTR

I agree with you. But the only way you can find those "right" free agents is if you have a competent front office and scouting department. The Bills do not.

 

Bringing in Free Agents to Buffalo has NEVER been a problem. This team has shown time and time again that it will spend the money to get the players they want. Despite the "Ralph is cheap" talk, it's all BS. He isn't cheap. He makes moves. He just makes the wrong moves. This team has a piss poor front office and has since BP left. Nix is a mess, TM must have pictures of Ralph feeding off the blood of Christian babies because he should have been pink slipped years ago, Whalen brings me hope, but he's not running the show yet.

[machinegun12]

Look at a team like San Diego or Indianapolis. When is the last time you heard either of these teams signing a HUGE free agent. In San Diego, it's actually quite the opposite. They have let go guys like LT, Drew Brees, Michael Turner, Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, and so on. They trust their management to bring in fresh new talent through the draft and don't want to overpay for something they know they can get cheaper(which is probably why Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill will be playing elsewhere in the near future). I don't think the Bills will ever be a team that signs top tier FA. I really think that Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey are on the right track and I am really excited to see what additions are brought in this offseason.

[3rdand12]

This year would be a nice year to grab some extra picks in the second and third, unless you want that QB. i am no scout but there might be PR Defenseive Ends and LBs in there, maybe an OT and dt too.

Statements like this are probably why i am not and NFL coach though.

well at least one of the reasons

[boyst]

If we start winning, if we have a good solid franchise in Buffalo players will come. Green Bay sports great teams and gets some good free agents, New England gets their share of free agents; Minnesota attracts good free agents, too. It is about the team you have. If we start winning we will get good players. Look at Detroit. They play indoors, have a large metro area with Windsor across the river. They have problems because they have not been good. Cinci and Chicago are also examples.

 

If we want free agents and rookies to work here we have to show them our desire to win.

Edited December 21, 2010 by jboyst62

[3rdand12]

Do you think we have done that yet?

[calbear]

Even if we had the ability to trade for first rounders, I'd much rather trade down from our top 5 (soon top 10?!) pick into the lower first, and then again if possible to the high second. Stockpiling 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders would be ideal. As many have said, there are a lot of holes to fill and there's a lot of depth to develop. That assumes, of course, we're not trying to get Andrew Luck or some other "franchise" QB. But I'd rather spread our money around and play the odds that a few guys develop well than bank our success on one or two guys.

[sllib olaffub]

The 550 show was talking about the need to add a few really good, special game-changers, and they were talking about how it was unlikely that Buffalo could bring in any of them via F.A. - and I know those guys are really down on Buffalo, and eternally pessimistic, but, my reasoning really depended on the F.O. being able to accurately determine the real game-changers in the draft, and then isolating positions where we need those guys, and then doing whatever needs be to get them. If you traded all seven or eight picks in the draft for two or three definite stars, then in three or four seasons you'd be set.

I know the problems with that approach, though. For one, it is more about team than about individuals. I think our present team is a good example of that. The guys like each other, are developing a real identity - that of "Us against the World", I'd say. You have to add the right characters to that group.

 

Sometimes it seems like all these fan ideas about how to make things better are useless, because it does seem like Nix and Gailey have a plan, and are enacting it. I do like the guys they've brought in over the last five or six weeks, and I am anxious to see what they do with this next off-season.

As an aside, I sure hope either Edwards gets much better as D.C. or we look to upgrade. Someone like Nolan with Miami is a good example of how you don't have to have two or three years to install a good D. Just like Green Bay's - both were installed in one season and were right at the top of the charts.

[Kelly the Dog]

Overpay (if you have to) to sign David Harris to play ILB, and get a mid level young DE FA that can play the run. Dwan Edwards or better. Then keep Fitz for two years, trade our entire draft for #1 selection and Andrew Luck, and then sign all kinds of UDFA who will look to come here first based on the success of UDFA here in the past, and no competition from other rookies to beat out and make the team. Let Luck be an Aaron Rodgers as long as Fitz is playing well.

 

Not saying they could sign Harris, and I wouldnt advise the rest of it unless we get an absolute stud starter on defense first, along with another potential starter on the DL.

[billsfan89]

Its all about good drafting draft impact dominant players in the first two rounds and develop starters and good depth players in the mid and later rounds (As well as undrafted free agents).

 

This team seems to be able develop quality players in the later rounds (Kyle Williams, Steve Johnson, and to a lesser extend D.Bell and Moats) and even get some production out of underafted players (Fred Jackson) but they continue to miss on upper round picks that hurts their ability to develop a core of players.

 

If you look at this team since the 2006 draft they have continued to miss on 1st round picks which holds this team back. Take a look at the teams recent 1st rounders.

 

2006- Whitner (A serviceable above average safety but not the impact player you need from the 8th overall pick)

2006 b - McCargo (Simple bust)

2007 Lynch (A serviceable above average running back who started his career with 2 1000 yard seasons then was traded for a 4th rounder)

2008- McKelvin (Is still developing mixed results so far)

2009- Maybin (Bust still has time to develop but the guy has shown nothing)

2009 b - Wood (Good quality player)

2010- Spiller (Too early to tell but not an impact selection)

 

If you are given 7 1st round picks and you can't get a star player out of one of them and you miss big on 3 of them you aren't going to build a team that is going to win.

 

The free agent strategy should be to supplement a roster that is already built. Getting second and third tier guys to fill roles. Once the Bills have a winning record and a good core of players you can find a couple of good free agents to come and want to be the final pieces of a winner.

 

Its hard to get free agents to come to a low profile team that is losing. Free agents don't want to build a team for Buffalo but they would want to come to a winning Buffalo team.

Edited December 22, 2010 by billsfan89

[RuntheDamnBall]

Overpay (if you have to) to sign David Harris to play ILB, and get a mid level young DE FA that can play the run. Dwan Edwards or better. Then keep Fitz for two years, trade our entire draft for #1 selection and Andrew Luck, and then sign all kinds of UDFA who will look to come here first based on the success of UDFA here in the past, and no competition from other rookies to beat out and make the team. Let Luck be an Aaron Rodgers as long as Fitz is playing well.

 

Not saying they could sign Harris, and I wouldnt advise the rest of it unless we get an absolute stud starter on defense first, along with another potential starter on the DL.

This crazy plan actually sounds OK until you look at the TEs on the roster.

[Kelly the Dog]

This crazy plan actually sounds OK until you look at the TEs on the roster.

 

Yeah, I was thinking of adding TE to the FA list. Drafting a TE is a total crapshoot more than even other positions though. I'm not totally ready to completely give up on Shawn Nelson, and Chandler is huge and an intriguing prospect. The wealth of WRs and the blocking of McIntyre don't make TE a necessity on this team. That does not mean I don't think a good TE wouldn't help Fitz or this offense tremendously. They're just so hard to find. Drunken Stupar and David Martin are barely serviceable but they don't kill us, and we run a lot of four wides, and even five (counting a back) as it is.

[agardin]

Top free agents, like #1 picks, are not always the best players to sign. One Albert Haynesworth is exhibit A. Cam Wake was a good CFL player but guaranteed to become the beast he is now. If the Bills do sign FAs they likely won't be blockbusters. Hopefully they will be the guys ready to bust out. That's where you improve with FA's. I can't think of one mega free agent that ever played up to his deal.

 

PTR

 

I would tend to agree with you but Drew Brees (I think) comes to mind as does Reggie White, but those examples are few and far between. The draft is the best way to go and then backfill with mid tier FAs that fit your scheme and team personality. The reason why draft picks are so coveted by NFL teams has far more to do with economics than production. After the first half of the first round, rookie contracts are not that high and they put pressure on vets that are due big raises. If a vet is due a big raise and there is a viable option in a player playing his rookie contract behind him on the depth chart the team moves to the younger player. This is true except for certain key positions. Lock up your QB, LT, pass rushing D lineman and best corner the rest you move unless they come in at a reasonable price.

Edited December 22, 2010 by agardin

[CosmicBills]

Overpay (if you have to) to sign David Harris to play ILB, and get a mid level young DE FA that can play the run. Dwan Edwards or better. Then keep Fitz for two years, trade our entire draft for #1 selection and Andrew Luck, and then sign all kinds of UDFA who will look to come here first based on the success of UDFA here in the past, and no competition from other rookies to beat out and make the team. Let Luck be an Aaron Rodgers as long as Fitz is playing well.

 

Not saying they could sign Harris, and I wouldnt advise the rest of it unless we get an absolute stud starter on defense first, along with another potential starter on the DL.

I love this plan. When you came up with it the other day in the other thread, it sounded fantastic to me. And, strangely, it's something that would actually work (in terms of whoever has the number 1 pick being willing to give it up for that). I think it would be a bold, bold move that, if successful, would be the foundation for a long Super Bowl run. And if it fails horribly (meaning Luck sucks), what's the worst that happens? We still have a team on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

 

(also, phone is broke ... getting a new one!)

Edited December 22, 2010 by tgreg99

[3rdand12]

quote "Its all about good drafting draft impact dominant players in the first two rounds and develop starters and good depth players in the mid and later rounds (As well as undrafted free agents)."

 

I do not think we do that very well.

 

And i have to kindly, disagree

Edited December 23, 2010 by 3rdand12