Spiller's Company

[silvermike]

I found this fun tool at Pro Football Reference: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi You can do some pretty impressive research with it.

 

In any case, to see which other RBs had Spilleresque beginnings to their careers, I set this up with a few parameters: 1st or 2nd round draft pick; Under 500 total yards from scrimmage in their rookie year; Active for at least 14 games (which Spiller should hit if he stays healthy in the stretch). And I limited the search from 1990-present, just to keep it manageable and current.

 

There are thirty matches, and you can see them all here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/A2cyC

 

It's not...the most optimistic thing in the world, but it's certainly not cause for despair yet. Notable stars on the list include Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones, and Deuce McAllister. It's also worth noting that Darren McFadden just barely tops out of this list, and would be another possible hope for CJ. Still, there are a lot of low cards in that hand, and I think it's worth being at least a little concerned about CJ's future. But certainly not time to panic.

 

As to our other questionable young player, there's Aaron Maybin: The search here is for all LBs and DEs who had fewer than 2 sacks in their first two seasons, and fewer than 50 tackles.. You get this list: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/P8Sgw

 

I like Jerome McDougal, but here, it's harder to argue that there's anything more than slim pickings out there. Ugh.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

That's an interesting tool, but none of those guys possess Spiller's speed. And also, what were those guys number of touches compared to Spiller. Spiller has barely been getting the ball.

[Thoner7]

Thats Inspiring.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

He had a few impressive carries to the inside last game against Cleveland, so hopefully those were signs of things to come.

 

All the worry about Spiller is way premature. When he learns and becomes comfortable with his protection reads he will see the field much more.

[fridge]

As to our other questionable young player, there's Aaron Maybin: The search here is for all LBs and DEs who had fewer than 2 sacks in their first two seasons, and fewer than 50 tackles.. You get this list: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/P8Sgw

 

If you completed the study by adding the parameter "top 10 overall pick" you would return 0 results.

[silvermike]

If you completed the study by adding the parameter "top 10 overall pick" you would return 0 results.

 

Don't forget Vernon Gholston.

[akm0404]

Ouch. When you're crossing your fingers for the next Deuce Mccalister, things are pretty grim.

 

Hope Spiller turns it around though.

[Dorkington]

Bust, indeed.

[Rob's House]

As far as Spiller goes, there haven't been too many guys picked early by teams that already have two starting RBs. I know Lynch is gone, but he took most of the carries in the first quarter of the season and FJ's been taking them since. Not to mention this is a team that plays from behind a lot and therefore does a lot of passing. Spiller's averaging 4.1 YPC which isn't setting the world on fire, but isn't atrocious either. I wouldn't worry too much about him at this point.

[OldTimer1960]

I would certainly like to see Spiller earning more carries and be a target for a

pass or two a game, but he really hasn't done poorly at all when he has gotten

chances. 4.1 ypc is pretty respectable, especially behind an OL that has *maybe*

one starting-calibre OT and has had a lot of injuries lately.

 

I wouldn't write Spiller off yet, but I think there is cause for concern that

he isn't getting many opportunities. That is usually a sign that the coaches

don't like what they see in practices and meetings, however, I think it might be

that Gailey is adament about making rookies earn their playing time over the vets.

I think that is a good strategy for building good teamwork and will help the

rookies be accountable and learn to work like a pro- an important lesson. I think

that if Gailey had just tossed the rookies in ahead of vets that were better

at the time (due to their advantage in experience), this team wouldn't be showing

the fight that it has shown.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

That's an interesting tool, but none of those guys possess Spiller's speed. And also, what were those guys number of touches compared to Spiller. Spiller has barely been getting the ball.

 

 

Not true. Napolian Kaufman was a vey similar player with 4.3 type speed, quickness. He broke the big play frequently.

[Chandler#81]

He had a few impressive carries to the inside last game against Cleveland, so hopefully those were signs of things to come.

 

All the worry about Spiller is way premature. When he learns and becomes comfortable with his protection reads he will see the field much more.

 

 

This.

 

I think we can all see he's growing into the pro game of late. He has fantastic burst and knee buckling moves. He was very eager to break free earlier in the season which didn't help him with up-field blocking. He's letting the game come to him more as it 'slows down' for him. I agree he has to improve his blocking and blitz pick up, but he has a GREAT attitude and a GREAT offensive minded head coach who'll insist he does.

[silvermike]

I don't think this proves he's a bust - far from it. But I don't think it's crazy to be concerned about his performance so far this season, and we should all be a little anxious for him to break out soon.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Spiller may have split the load with the 195th pick in the 2009 draft while both were at Clemson for reasons other than that CJ was fast.

[rpcolosi]

for the record spiller had a far better day than FJ with fewer touches. Freddie dropped 2 passes, one for a certain 1st down in the 4th. CJ had just as hard a time as FJ running, but was able to make some catches in open space. In addition, he also had a great punt return. He also had a good seal block on Misi, though Fitz still got sacked due to levitre being late on a pull and reinhart getting blown up.

 

I'm sick of Sully looking at the stat line and not the came. CJ came to play today and is going to be a good player....

[dtgolder]

Great tool...here's another interesting one:

 

For single seasons, from 1970 to 2010, in rookie season, player was drafted in round 1, played in the NFL, played RB, requiring Rushing Yds >= 0, sorted by descending Rushing Yds.

 

Take a peek at this for the number of Bills RB's that were drafted in the first round that are on this list (and really never had exceptional careers, although they had decent rookie seasons):

 

McGahee (21)

Lynch (22)

Bell (26)

Miller (29)

Smith (39)

 

Spiller doesn't show up until the second page (at 124)

 

A few thoughts--the Bills have gone after that first-round "sure thing" RB a number of times, and none have really panned out. You could argue McGahee worked out (but that was a HUGE risk)...the others all "good" players, but I suspect none will make the hall of fame.

 

So--probably indicative of the difficulty in "picking" a sure-thing at RB (or any position) in the draft, along with showcasing the problems the Bills always seem to have with evaluating talent on draft day.