Where do Good QBs Come From?

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

Plenty of first round QBs far failed. However, when you try to rely on QBs from the later rounds, the failure rate is astronomically higher than in round 1. If you want a guy to be a franchise QB, your best bet is to draft one as early as possible. That doesn't mean just take any QB. But if a guy who you think is a "franchise" QB is available, you take him, no questions asked.

 

Perfectly said Ramius. No questions asked, if you get the opportunity to pick from any QB in the draft, and you've convinced yourself as an organization he's a franchise QB, you do it.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

*sigh*. OK, be scared O' me, but there's really no need.

 

It is one proven, winning strategy to build stud lines, and have a servicable QB in there. It has taken teams to championships.

It has taken teams to Superbowl victories. Do the names Jeff Hofstadler and Mark Rypien have meaning to you?

 

The Bills have not been run into the ground for the last decade because the franchise has been following one proven path instead of another proven path.

 

The Bills have been run into the ground for the last decade because they have been following no proven path and have made questionable personnel decision after questionable personnel decision, especially with their high-round draft choices.

 

I personally think the Bills could draft Joe Genius QB next year and he'd only learn to play scared, playing behind our line.

 

Those teams are one and done. A team with a lead by the "Franchise QB" can compete for his entire career. Ravens, Bucs. They also SUCK to watch, and that might not mean much to you, but it does to me.

[tonyd19]

If Andrew Luck or Ryan Mallett or whomever emerges as a top tier QB are their when we pick next year, I think they will have to go that direction. But, if there is a "Jimmy Clausen" type. IE - A guy who not too many people are high on but a lot of the media have projected as a top pick....I think the Bills will pass and fill a different need.

 

But, we need a franchise QB to build around. The offensive line is acutally not to far away and seem to get better every week. We have 3 or 4 good young lineman already who will continue to develop.

 

And everyone whop declares should be there becasue we will most likely have a top 3 pick.

[Smiley Dear]

All I can say is Duh! The NFL draft is a crap shoot. The higher a player is picked the better the odds are that that player will be successful, at any position. The problem with the Bills is that they have been really bad at evaluating players and drafting the wrong guys. You can blow the 1st pick in the draft just as easily as you can the 4th or 11th or 9th pick. The wrong thing to do is what Ralph says they are doing, deciding ahead of time what position you are picking with the 1st pick. This team has so many needs that it will most likely draft in the top 5 for 2 or 3 more drafts. They should identify THE player who is most likely to have the biggest impact and draft him. If that player is one of the QBs then great. There is a heck of a lot of college football left to be played and it's simply to early to say we must draft a QB in the first. That's exactly how you end up picking a JaMarcus Russell over a Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas for example.

[NaPolian8693]

Lists are great.......here's some more First Round QB's you forget to mention:

 

Jamarcus Russell

Brady Quinn

Matt Leinart

etc...

 

This is exactly the kind of scared, wrongheaded thinking that permeates the Bills fan base.

 

Fans are afraid of the potential of a bust, so would rather pass on the chance to turn the franchise around and instead want to settle for a safer route and hope to return to perennial 8-8 form.

 

 

Guess what - first round offensive lineman bust at a high rate, too.

 

Edited October 12, 2010 by NaPolian8693

[MDH]

Let's look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl (based on my own personal opinion), and what round they were drafted in.

 

Philip Rivers - 1st round

Peyton Manning - 1st

Donovan McNabb - 1st

Eli Manning - 1st

Carson Palmer - 1st

Aaron Rodgers - 1st

Matt Ryan - 1st

Jay Cutler - 1st

Mike Vick - 1st

Brett Favre - 2nd

Drew Brees - 2nd

Matt Schaub - 3rd

Tom Brady - 6th

Tony Romo - Undrafted

 

 

Of your list - 12 players were drafted in the top 3 rounds (what most people would consider a "high" pick). Of those 12 players 5 of them are not playing for the team that drafted them. So while I agree the quality QBs are generally taken in the first few rounds there are other ways of obtaining those QBs than drafting them yourself.

[akm0404]

So while I agree the quality QBs are generally taken in the first few rounds there are other ways of obtaining those QBs than drafting them yourself.

 

The only way you get a Peyton Manning is to draft him yourself. Franchise quarterbacks are selected in the top of the first round, with few exceptions. Sure, you can luck into a Drew Brees once every 20 years, otherwise your free agent options are aging ex-stars in their golden years, or perennial retreads.

 

Again, it all comes down to whether you want to rebuild to 7-9 or rebuild into a team that is capable of competing for championships every single year for a decade.

 

I'm at the point where another 7-9 season is worse than an 0-16 season. At least if you go 0-16, your franchise is almost forced to take a quarterback instead of an endless parade of cornerbacks, running backs, safeties, and Maybins.

 

I feel bad for you guys that are so afraid of busting with a top-of-the-draft pick. That fear is keeping you from objectively evaluating what makes a championship-caliber team good. That fear is keeping you from happily taking the risk of busting on a #1 quarterback, knowing that if you hit you win championships.

 

As has been shown, using the #1 pick in the NFL draft historically gives you a 33% chance of winning a Super Bowl, and >20% chance of winning multiple Super Bowls.

 

Right now, we have a 0% chance. Even though you are still a 2-1 underdog, I'll take that chance every day of the week.

 

And I get it, we draft terribly. That is why we're a bad, bad team. There is no reason to believe that they'll draft the correct quarterback #1. Hell, we probably won't.

 

But you can't get a hit without swinging the bat.

 

Put your fear aside and rebuild for a championship, not a miracle Wild Card season.

[Coby Fan]

If the Bills are picking first, I hope they find a guy with Hall of Fame potential, lineman or QB, or trade back in the 1st round for more picks.

It is hard to see how 1st pick in the draft QB's are better then say a top 5 pick, and getting more picks in the early rounds may be more important.

The Bills have a 50% HOF track record when picking first in the draft (Juice and Bruce both great picks, Walt Paltulski and Tom Cousineau both very bad picks).

The recent #1 picks have been very underwhelming in their NFL careers ( Tim Couch, Courtny Brown, Mike Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Mario Williams, Jamarcus Russell, Jake Long, Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford). Of course teams that pick first are often the teams with the weakest scouting and coaching, and so we should not be surprised that the first pick in the draft is a bust so often.

[tennesseeboy]

The only way you get a Peyton Manning is to draft him yourself. Franchise quarterbacks are selected in the top of the first round, with few exceptions. Sure, you can luck into a Drew Brees once every 20 years, otherwise your free agent options are aging ex-stars in their golden years, or perennial retreads.

 

Again, it all comes down to whether you want to rebuild to 7-9 or rebuild into a team that is capable of competing for championships every single year for a decade.

 

I'm at the point where another 7-9 season is worse than an 0-16 season. At least if you go 0-16, your franchise is almost forced to take a quarterback instead of an endless parade of cornerbacks, running backs, safeties, and Maybins.

 

I feel bad for you guys that are so afraid of busting with a top-of-the-draft pick. That fear is keeping you from objectively evaluating what makes a championship-caliber team good. That fear is keeping you from happily taking the risk of busting on a #1 quarterback, knowing that if you hit you win championships.

 

As has been shown, using the #1 pick in the NFL draft historically gives you a 33% chance of winning a Super Bowl, and >20% chance of winning multiple Super Bowls.

 

Right now, we have a 0% chance. Even though you are still a 2-1 underdog, I'll take that chance every day of the week.

 

And I get it, we draft terribly. That is why we're a bad, bad team. There is no reason to believe that they'll draft the correct quarterback #1. Hell, we probably won't.

 

But you can't get a hit without swinging the bat.

 

Put your fear aside and rebuild for a championship, not a miracle Wild Card season.

But you get a Kurt Warner through free agency, you get an Eli Manning through trade and a Drew Brees through trade, a Donovan McNabb by trade, a Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton through trade, and a Jack Kemp off the waiver wire.

[lets_go_bills]

Jay Cutler is not a good QB.

[akm0404]

But you get a Kurt Warner through free agency, you get an Eli Manning through trade and a Drew Brees through trade, a Donovan McNabb by trade, a Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton through trade, and a Jack Kemp off the waiver wire.

 

This post shows a great deal of ignorance.

 

Look at Arizona and Kurt Warner via free agency. They were pretty good for a minute (didn't win a Super Bowl), and then because they had an old man QB at the end of his career, he retired and now the franchise is back in the toilet. Sweet!

 

Eli Manning was the #1 pick in the draft. The Giants and Chargers swapped the #1 and #4 picks, and both teams ended up with Franchise Quarterbacks through the draft. What point are you even trying to make?

 

Brees wasn't a trade, he went to the Saints via Free Agency. Pleasing to fact check a bit better if you're going to debate. Brees was one of the very rare exceptions to the "can't get a franchise QB without drafting them early" rule.

 

Jay Culter and Kyle Orton through trade - While these guys show flashes from time to time, it is a very, very, very long stretch to call them elite franchise quarterbacks. I doubt that either of them will win Super Bowls. Certainly not even in the conversation with the league-best quarterbacks.

 

Donovan McNabb via trade - Example of bringing in an aging star in the twilight of his career. This will certainly help make the Redskins a perennial championship contender for a decade!

 

You win consistently with elite-level play from quarterbacks. You most often get elite-level quarterbacks very early in the first round of the NFL draft. Keep trying until you find one, or be doomed to a 7-9 rebuild with a retread.

 

The recent #1 picks have been very underwhelming in their NFL careers ( Tim Couch, Courtny Brown, Mike Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Mario Williams, Jamarcus Russell, Jake Long, Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford).

 

Utter foolishness. Vick, Palmer, Manning, Williams, and Long have been or are Pro-Bowl players in the league. Stafford and Bradford have huge upside and are exciting players poised to be elite performers as their teams build around them. That is a full 50% of your cherry-picked list that are studs.

 

It is convenient when you decided to cut your list off, you missed the players from the previous two years:

 

Peyton Manning - Possibly the greatest QB ever to play the game of football.

Orlando Pace - Hall of Fame legend left tackle.

 

It is insane how desperate some Bills "fans" are to have a bad quarterback. It's mind boggling.

[Fan in San Diego]

Is there one school that produces more winners than any other?

[Hplarrm]

Do you understand though that there is a difference between drafting a player in the 1st round and that draftee delivering you an SB and you acquiring a highly drafted QB (since you want to expand your 1st round selected pool to include folks like Farve) who got drafted early but then got run out of town.

 

You claim it is a no-brainer that the Bills must draft a QB in the 1st in order to achieve our goal of an SB win, but look at your own list and name the players who delivered and SB win to the team which drafted them.

 

The simple fact is that only Manning and RoboQB with Pitts are the ONLY QBs who have delivered an SB wins to the teams which drafted them (which is what you suggest we do in order to achieve our goal) since Dallas chose Aikman in the first at the very end of the 80s.

 

There are simply myriad real world examples of teams which reach the promised land by acquiring the early round drafted QB as an FA (as happened in the most recent example of success with FA Drew Brees) picking up the cut 1st round draftee Trent Dilfer while your D actually delivers the goods, to bargain basement pick-up Kurt Warner, two time lose Brad Johnson, or trading for the QB you want such Eli Manning or way back when John Elway.

 

In fact the only two examples of success using the method you offer as a no-brainer by you and Mr. Ralph are those which feature RoboQB actually simply being the final piece of a the puzzle for a team really led by their old RB, their dynamic WR, and a D fueled by the recent NFL successful interest in getting a great safety like Polamaulu or Bob Sanders or Peyton Manning finally winning one with the essential help of Polian making great acquisitions to make this a TEAM, having a great defensive minded HC, the best kicker in the game, etc.

 

No one mistakes the Bills for being a team like Pitts where your 1st round drafted QB can add to the winner and put it over the top. Nor does anyone want to seriously consider taking the Peyton Manning route of committing to a near decade of coming close (after a rookie season which saw Manning elevate the Colts from 3-13 to 3-13).

 

Not only is committing our likely high 1st round choice likely bad football in terms of producing results in any kind of short term, but actually this team led by Mr. Ralph has continually shot itself in the kiester by the foolish attempts to find the next Jimbo. This over focus on one player (savior) rather than focusing instead on building a winning TEAM has led to idiocy like the Mr. Ralph handshake deal with Jimbo, rushing Collins into an inappropriate starter role, the Billy Joe Hobert idiocy, the mishandling of the RL/DF situation, the Losman/Edwards/ debacles.

 

The fact is that the local media and a vocal part of the fan base is not football mature enough to allow any rookie QB thrust into a situation where he cannot win to develop before he gets run out of town.

 

As unlikely as it is to draft the best player in football in the 6th round, this strikes me as a better strategy to succeed than drafting your franchise QB in the first.

 

These are simply the facts.

 

If not then simply list all of the QBs who delivered an SB win FOR THE TEAM which drafter them which is what you suggest we do. We are neither in Pitts situation when they got RoboQB and to the extent we are in Indy's situation when they got Manning this route does not seem viable for us for the ultimate payoff as we near the end of the decade.

 

Let's look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl (based on my own personal opinion), and what round they were drafted in.

 

Philip Rivers - 1st round

Peyton Manning - 1st

Donovan McNabb - 1st

Eli Manning - 1st

Carson Palmer - 1st

Aaron Rodgers - 1st

Matt Ryan - 1st

Jay Cutler - 1st

Mike Vick - 1st

Brett Favre - 2nd

Drew Brees - 2nd

Matt Schaub - 3rd

Tom Brady - 6th

Tony Romo - Undrafted

 

 

 

[Bufcomments]

Both Farve and Brees were selected 33rd overall too. Now I knwo Farve was taken before there were 32 teams, but in the era of the modern draft him and Brees are the 1st player taken in the second round.

 

So if you figure the Bills are picking 1st overall next year, we will have that 33rd pick. That means we kinda have 2 shots at nabbing our QB. Also that takes your % from 70 up to 80 when you think of it that way.

 

--- I think we should follow the Rans/Falcons Model. Take the QB early - hopefully Luck, then Mallet we should take the risk on - then with our 33rd take a top T. Both of those teams have had great success doing that.

I think right now the Bills will be top 3 based on record .

 

Your post was well thought out and I hope Buddy does exactly that.

[Ramius]

But you get a Kurt Warner through free agency, you get an Eli Manning through trade and a Drew Brees through trade, a Donovan McNabb by trade, a Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton through trade, and a Jack Kemp off the waiver wire.

 

Care to enlighten all of us as to where exactly Cutler and McNabb were drafted?

 

blah, blah, blah, some bullcrap about how you can easily find a franchise QB in the later rounds of the draft

 

Repeating your asinine "aisle 8" QB theory doesn't make it any less idiotic. Outside of the first 35 picks, the chances of getting a franchise QB are astronomically small.

 

Change your screen name, write 10 more paragraphs on the topic, but your argument is baseless and idiotic.

[Cannon]

Is there one school that produces more winners than any other?

 

UW produces QB's

[zow2]

Ralph already came out and said we need a good young QB. Believe me, Chan and Nix know that we need a franchise QB. They're going to take a QB with their first pick. It's done.

[Hplarrm]

 

 

 

 

Repeating your asinine "aisle 8" QB theory doesn't make it any less idiotic. Outside of the first 35 picks, the chances of getting a franchise QB are astronomically small.

 

Change your screen name, write 10 more paragraphs on the topic, but your argument is baseless and idiotic.

The basis of the argument is the simple fact which you and others have failed to state facts that while the chances of getting a franchise QB for your team in "aisle 8" are astronomically small, the chances of drafting one in round one are also astronomically small.

 

Also, in fact the two real world examples in the modern (salary cap) era of teams actually drafting their franchise QB who QB's ed the team to an SB win were Peyton Manning and RoboQB. Neither of these two real world examples are relevant to the Bills situation (or so you endorse us taking the near decade long Manning approach or do you actually think we are a mere one player away).

 

These are simple questions or is there some other fact based example of success you are arguing?

 

I am simply stating the obvious point actually that if you propose an alternative that simply does not exist in real life (is there some example of a team drafting their franchise QB in the 1st which has occurred since Dallas chose Aikman that I do not know about) that this non-existent example falls well short of the entire field of real world examples which have happened from the Saints signing FA Brees to the Pats drafting their franchise QB in the 6th, to teams trading to get 1st rounders they did not draft such as Eli Manning or John Elway, or even plucking Kurt Warner from Wal-mart.

 

I am not arguing that it is easy to pick Brady in the 6th, simply that even this longshot has more of a remote chance of success than the approach of drafting Ryan Leaf, Harrington, or Akili Smith to lead your team to the promised land,

 

I repetitively state this because folks keep repetitively claiming that it is a simple no brainer to draft your franchise QB in the 1st.

 

If you think so then who do you suggest and how do you think this will happen?

 

Having seen how the local media is happy to profit off of lambasting any and all Bills choices as stupid and a small but vocal segment of the fanbase is happy to anoint the next thrown into the fire before he can do the job (if he ever can like JP, RJ, Edwards) and then delight in savaging this athlete, I simply think it is unlikely to work to hit the longshot of picking P. Manning instead of Leaf, or even if we pick a great QB like Favre, Steve Young (or even two time loser who QB'ed a team to an SB win Brad Johnson he is gonna get run out of dodge by a media and some fans quite happy to turn on a future HOF player when he goes through the typical learning curve of even great players.

 

Drafting a QB in the first is almost certainly going to result in the same football mistake which Mr. Ralph led the way in making a handshake deal only he could make with Jimbo. This was a bad football judgment by Mr. Ralph which undeniably triggered a series of QB savior miscues from over-reaching to draft TC, rushing him to start while he showed happy feet, trading value for Bill Joe idiot, contractually screwing up the RJ/DF situation, making JP the starter when even he said he was not ready, and investing to many hopes and dreams in Edwards.

 

A legit question would be what should the Bills do instead.

 

I think:

 

1. Acquire (using primarily the draft) difference makers for this team. Spiller was an odd choice given the surplus at RB on this team, however, I can see that he was the best bet at difference maker at our pick so I can live with this.

 

2. Gailey does have a proven track record of winning and even making the playoffs with your so-called aisle 8 QBs. By all means try to find a franchise QB like a Brady in the 6th. as long a shot as this is at least it is a better remote possibility than us finding a QB that can deliver us to the promised land with an early 1st round pick. I think we are more likely to catch lightening in a bottle late in the draft (and even better when we do not see this low cost choice does kill the TEAM like a high picked QB almost certainly would because it is incredibly doubtful any player is gonna be a better QB than Manning and even if he is that he would survive the QB mill in this town. I think it is far more likely that Gailey can make the playoffs (or even win it all quicker than the draft model with him doing what he did to get production out of idiots like Fiedler.

 

3. Do a better job of not only finding talented idiots like Peters but managing them so they remain happy as Bills. IMHO, the big miscues which led to the selfishness of Peters killing us was when we paid arm and a leg to two lesser OL talents in Dockery and Walker which really forced us to unfortunately deserve to pay a kings ransom to Peters. Even worse, we demonstrated by rolling over to Schobel when he pouted and stayed away from voluntary camp after we gave big cash to a player whose performance did not merit it (Kelsay) that we simply bent over and gave more money to Schobel.

 

Peters was a selfish sod, but given that the Bills already had a clear track record under Brandon of signing bad football contracts with their 3rd and 5th best OL players when they were paying less to their most accomplished OL player. Even worse Brandon had demonstrated when he made the same stupid move on DL that merely through Schobel being selfish Brandon caved, the Peters approach was clearly dictated (and of course worked for him as he did in fact get the outstanding life contract he wanted from Philly which ironically he has not lived up to with how injuries have impacted him.

 

I keep saying the same silly fact based things because they simply reply to the same fact-free opinions offered up by those who insist that the Bills kill themselves by drafting a QB in the first.

 

In fact the best argument for my point of view is the fact that Mr. Ralph seems to be insisting on Gailey/Nix using the huge pick we are likely to get on a QB who almost certainly will be demanded by the local media to start and win immediately. Meanwhile unless we find a pass rush this young QB (even if he survives behind much in need of better players OL) even if great will simply lose a lot of games 34-33.

 

Do you have any facts which indicate otherwise?

[Astrobot]

would love to see the 1st round qbs that failed.

 

For the sake of argument I'd like to see top 5 qbs who have failed.

From FinHeaven.com:

Busts:

Andre Ware(1990 Lions)

His NFL career totals are 83 completions in 161 attempts for 1,112 yards and five touchdowns.

 

Dan McGwire(1991 Seahawks)

McGwire was 74/147 and threw for 745 yards in his career including 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. At 6-8, Dan McGwire is still the tallest quarterback in NFL History.

 

Todd "Marijuanavich" Marinovich(1991 Raiders)

In his two year NFL career Marinovich racked up 104 completions on 205 attempts for 1,345 yards 8 TDs and 9 INTs.

 

David Klingler(1992 Bengals)

Threw for 3,994 yards 16 TDs and 21 INTs, disappeared after 5 seasons.

 

Tommy Maddox(1992 Broncos)

He is a bust because he never did well at all until 11 years after being drafted despite being the 25th overall pick and his two good seasons weren't even that good.

 

Rick Mirer(1993 Seahawks)

Threw for 11,969 yards 50 TDs and 76 INTs over the course of his rocky 11 year career. He went number 2 overall.

 

Heath Shuler(1994 Redskins)

15 TDs 33 INTs and 3,691 yards and 5 seasons equate to this guys career. Despite his crappy performance in the NFL he still has the balls to call himself a great QB on his site promoting himself for congressman.

http://www.heathshuler.com/

 

Jim Druckenmiller(1997 49ers)

Played for four seasons and only started one game. He threw and astonishing 1 TD and an even more astounding 4 INTs for a whopping 239 yards.

 

Ryan Leaf(1998 Chargers)

We all know about this guy. He threw for 14 TDs and 36 INTs before retiring three years into his career. He had a bad attitude too.

 

Tim Couch(1999 Browns)

He threw for 64 TDs and 67 INTs with 11,131 yards. He now is wandering the NFL looking for a new team.

 

Akili Smith(1999 Bengals)

2,212 yards 5 TDs and 13 INTs for his seven year career. This guy couldn't even cut it in the CFL.

 

Cade McNown(1999 Bears)

He played for a whopping two seasons. In his two seasons he threw for 3,111 yards 16 TDs and 19 INTs.

 

Joey Harrington(2002 Lions)

Until he does something he is a bust. So far he has thrown 60 TDs and 62 INTs and 10,242 yards.

 

Patrick Ramsey(2002 Redskins)

So far he has sucked and is now a free agent.

 

 

The Bust Watch:

 

Kyle Boller(2003 Ravens)

5,618 yards passing 31 TDs and 32 INTs and has done nothing for the Ravens yet.

 

Rex Grossman(2003 Bears)

So far in his career he has constantly been injured and has no real stats as a result of it.

 

J.P. Losman(2004 Bills)

So far he has done nothing that proves he is any good. He HAS shown signs of brilliance but for the most part has been pretty crummy.

 

Of 25 QBs taken from 1990 to 2002 14 have been busts. I gave the benefit of the doubt on most like Jeff George, Trent Dilfer, Chad Pennington and Kerry Collins so if you consider these guys busts then you up the count to a total of 18 out of 25 or 72% of QBs taken in the first round are busts. If you don't think those guys are bust the percentage is still a staggering 56%.

[BobChalmers]

I still believe David Carr was ruined by a terrible, very terrbible OL in Houston. He got sacked almost 70times a season his first 2 years in the league. Not to mention the countless hits, pressures and knock downs he encountered.

 

agreed