Convince me

[Hplarrm]

Its the ongoing battle between momentum and inertia.

 

It takes a lot of momentum to change current reality such that the Bills move,

 

Inertia keeps things locked into the same state of existence.

 

Inertia tends to have the advantage in any battle as it takes doing something to get things to change.

 

Time marches on relentlessly so things much change and momentum eventually wins.

 

Will the Bills be here tomorrow?

 

I can say with virtual certainty yes (the planet pr gravity may not be here so one can never say something with total certainty but virtual certainty):

 

YES.

 

Will the Bills be here forever?

 

NO.

 

You are picking a point in time somewhere between tomorrow and forever.

[Malazan]

Forbes recently did a list of the Top 50 Most Valuable Sports Franchises in the world. Now keep in mind that all 32 NFL teams did make the list...The Buffalo Bills ranked in at #33 in the World. Value at $909 Million with revenue at $222 Million.

 

These numbers alone don't say much, but 6 other NFL teams are worth less than Buffalo. Buffalo is also listed ahead of a few high profile sports franchises like the Boston Red Sox (35), New York Mets (38), A.C. Milan (43), L.A. Dodgers (45), and L.A. Lakers (48).

 

Any businessman interested in buying the Buffalo Bills would have to look at these numbers and realize that Buffalo already has a well established following, causing them to make more money than 6 other NFL teams, and high profile teams from other sports, and understand the risk of moving a team that makes good money. They are higher on the list than two L.A. sports teams (which by the way was one of the rumored places for relocation).

 

I understand that the NFL is on a whole different level than the NBA or MLB...but you look at a team like the Red Sox, their waiting list for season tickets is unreal. Yet we are two slots higher than they are.

 

If I step out of my Bills fan shoes and step into my unbiased business shoes...when I look at these numbers I would have a hard time trying to justify moving the team.

 

There is a lot of information that you seem to misunderstand in this post.

[Spiderweb]

Well, The Bills are in Buffalo and have been since 1960. There are currently no plans to move the teams, no offers that we know of, etc.

 

So, I think you'd need to construct a very persuasive argument to convince me this IS the Bills last year here. I'm thinking you have nothing but a bunch of conjecture, circumstance and hunches none of which amount to squat.

 

A number of things need to happen for the Bills to leave. I'm guessing it is unlikely that perfect storm develops since I see no evidence of it.

 

 

You appear far too rational, posts too well thought out, and far too well written. Shame on you....

[finknottle]

Forbes recently did a list of the Top 50 Most Valuable Sports Franchises in the world. Now keep in mind that all 32 NFL teams did make the list...The Buffalo Bills ranked in at #33 in the World. Value at $909 Million with revenue at $222 Million.

 

Value of $909 million? Price means nothing without talking about profit.

 

Whether borrowing or using ones own money, if the Bills cost a new owner $1 billion to acquire (to use a round number), they need something approaching $100 million in profit each year to be a worthwhile investment. What is Buffalo's profit?

[uncle flap]

I keep wondering if this is the last year of Bills football. Our owner could go at any minute, there will be a lockout in 2011, the lease situation regarding our stadium is still hazy, etc...

 

Please convince me that this isn't the last year of Bills football.

 

you can't tell me what to do

 

but seriously the dean already said it best, there's no real reason to think this would be the last year of bills football. even if ralph dies, there's a lockout, the new cba is unfriendly to smallmarket teams, and the stadium starts to crumble, it'd take more than a couple months to iron out the future of the bills, and in the meantime, the band will play on.

 

all those things would likely contribute to the demise of the bills in buffalo, but we've still got a few years at least. i think it will crystal clear when the bills begin to play their final season in buffalo, so until then, i'm not gonna worry.

 

of course, after we win the superbowl, who on earth would want to move the reigning champs?

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

Well, The Bills are in Buffalo and have been since 1960. There are currently no plans to move the teams, no offers that we know of, etc.

 

So, I think you'd need to construct a very persuasive argument to convince me this IS the Bills last year here. I'm thinking you have nothing but a bunch of conjecture, circumstance and hunches none of which amount to squat.

 

A number of things need to happen for the Bills to leave. I'm guessing it is unlikely that perfect storm develops since I see no evidence of it.

 

Two questions for you Deano.

1. How are lease negotiations going between Erie County and the Bills?

- I'll save you a little time on that one. A. They're not. The current lease expires on 6/31/13 and the Bills officially have no interest in discussing an extension.

 

2. Did I miss the groundbreaking on the new stadium? If the Bills were firmly entrenched in Buffalo then they would certainly be building a stadium to replace "The Ralph" which will be 40 years old when the lease expires. The local economy can't support a modern day NFL franchise and as certain as death and taxes, the Bills' day's in Buffalo are numbered and that number is 6/31/13.

[sharper802]

I can not...

[sharper802]

you can't tell me what to do

 

but seriously the dean already said it best, there's no real reason to think this would be the last year of bills football. even if ralph dies, there's a lockout, the new cba is unfriendly to smallmarket teams, and the stadium starts to crumble, it'd take more than a couple months to iron out the future of the bills, and in the meantime, the band will play on.

 

all those things would likely contribute to the demise of the bills in buffalo, but we've still got a few years at least. i think it will crystal clear when the bills begin to play their final season in buffalo, so until then, i'm not gonna worry.

 

of course, after we win the superbowl, who on earth would want to move the reigning champs?

Do you recall the Colts leaving in the middle of the night? The Browns moving to Baltimore? These things basically happened in the blink of an eye. Yes the Cardinals move to Pheonix and the Rams to St. Louis took a decent length of time. But with a lockout looming there may not even be time to say good bye. The franchise may simply fade away.....

[PromoTheRobot]

Two questions for you Deano.

1. How are lease negotiations going between Erie County and the Bills?

- I'll save you a little time on that one. A. They're not. The current lease expires on 6/31/13 and the Bills officially have no interest in discussing an extension.

 

2. Did I miss the groundbreaking on the new stadium? If the Bills were firmly entrenched in Buffalo then they would certainly be building a stadium to replace "The Ralph" which will be 40 years old when the lease expires. The local economy can't support a modern day NFL franchise and as certain as death and taxes, the Bills' day's in Buffalo are numbered and that number is 6/31/13.

Do you really think that lease is the only thing keeping the Bills here??? The Bills stay as long as Ralph draws breath. After is anyone's guess.

 

PTR

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

Do you really think that lease is the only thing keeping the Bills here??? The Bills stay as long as Ralph draws breath. After is anyone's guess.

 

PTR

 

It's not the only thing keeping them here but it is very important. Also, the lease does not ensure that the Bills will stay here. There is a "relatively" small fee for breaking the lease.

What are your thoughts on there being no serious talks of a new stadium in the area?

[The Dean]

Two questions for you Deano.

1. How are lease negotiations going between Erie County and the Bills?

- I'll save you a little time on that one. A. They're not. The current lease expires on 6/31/13 and the Bills officially have no interest in discussing an extension.

 

2. Did I miss the groundbreaking on the new stadium? If the Bills were firmly entrenched in Buffalo then they would certainly be building a stadium to replace "The Ralph" which will be 40 years old when the lease expires. The local economy can't support a modern day NFL franchise and as certain as death and taxes, the Bills' day's in Buffalo are numbered and that number is 6/31/13.

 

 

OK, now take those two tidbits (which by the way I made no mention of) and construct a very persuasive argument about why this likely the Bills last year. Convince me "facts" these alone lead you to believe the Bills are gone. Where are they going? Who will own them? What stadium are they going to play in? Make sure you provide any substantive evidence of talks to sell/purchase the Bills, the moving of the franchise, etc.

 

I'm not saying it isn't POSSIBLE that the Bills might move, but that wasn't the point of the thread, if I read the OP correctly. He want's the be convinced this isn't the last year the Bills are here. So far you have done nothing to convince me the Bills are certainly, or at least very likely, moving next year, the year after at any particular time in the future.

[PromoTheRobot]

It's not the only thing keeping them here but it is very important. Also, the lease does not ensure that the Bills will stay here. There is a "relatively" small fee for breaking the lease.

What are your thoughts on there being no serious talks of a new stadium in the area?

Simple: The state and county don't have the money and Ralph sure ain't spending his cash.

 

There's no mystery. The Bills stay put as long as Ralph lives. When he passes on the team will be sold to someone. That new owner will decides whether the Bills stay or go. Ralph has said several times he will not do anything to tie the team down after his passing, like sign a lease for a new stadium. Ralph kept his promise and kept the Bills in Buffalo. He has nothing to say about the new owners. My hope is Toronto, not L.A.

 

PTR

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

OK, now take those two tidbits (which by the way I made no mention of) and construct a very persuasive argument about why this likely the Bills last year. Convince me "facts" these alone lead you to believe the Bills are gone. Where are they going? Who will own them? What stadium are they going to play in? Make sure you provide any substantive evidence of talks to sell/purchase the Bills, the moving of the franchise, etc.

 

I'm not saying it isn't POSSIBLE that the Bills might move, but that wasn't the point of the thread, if I read the OP correctly. He want's the be convinced this isn't the last year the Bills are here. So far you have done nothing to convince me the Bills are certainly, or at least very likely, moving next year, the year after at any particular time in the future.

 

I have to agree with you in that context. I don't think that this will be the Bills' last season in Buffalo (which was the OP's question) it's just that your reply seemed to indicate that there was no reason to believe that they would relocate in the short term. Thus my 2 queries.

[The Dean]

I have to agree with you in that context. I don't think that this will be the Bills' last season in Buffalo (which was the OP's question) it's just that your reply seemed to indicate that there was no reason to believe that they would relocate in the short term. Thus my 2 queries.

 

 

I still don't believe they will be gone in the short term, but I understand it is a concern and a possibility. Many things have to happen (not just the lease ending or Ralph dieing) and have to come together to accomplish the move. More things have to happen for them to leave than for them to stay, IMO.

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

I still don't believe they will be gone in the short term, but I understand it is a concern and a possibility. Many things have to happen (not just the lease ending or Ralph dieing) and have to come together to accomplish the move. More things have to happen for them to leave than for them to stay, IMO.

 

I do hope you're right, but in the era of PSL's, luxury boxes, stadium plans in LA, and talk of International expansion, it seems that Buffalo would be ripe for the picking.

[disco]

Well, The Bills are in Buffalo and have been since 1960. There are currently no plans to move the teams, no offers that we know of, etc.

 

So, I think you'd need to construct a very persuasive argument to convince me this IS the Bills last year here. I'm thinking you have nothing but a bunch of conjecture, circumstance and hunches none of which amount to squat.

 

A number of things need to happen for the Bills to leave. I'm guessing it is unlikely that perfect storm develops since I see no evidence of it.

 

Right, the question might be in the event of perfect storm are the Bills gone? (I'm taking worst case scenario as: Owner dies, lockout, bad small market CBA terms, and...I don't know, George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg buy the franchise)

 

I still think the odds still favor the Bills being in Buffalo. The NFL will forever be in need of a passionate fan base. As markets go, Buffalo is still near the top of the list. It's funny, when I worked with espn people would laugh about how X story is going to drive the Bills nation crazy. Which was always remarkable because you didn't hear that even about most of the high profile teams. For a team that rarely had stories in the rundown, their passion was still apparent. The same is true at my current job - for the small market Bills, there are so many calls coming from and about Buffalo.

 

The NFL knows this. Sure, they're a business and care about dollars. But to create a fan base like they have in Buffalo...that takes years and years. And, today, it's as harder than ever. Look at Jacksonville. Look at Carolina. They'll never have the kind of fans like you have in Buffalo.

 

The NFL does know how valuable that is.

[Mr. WEO]

Ralph will live to 102.

 

But honestly, we will know the Bills future as soon as they announce the new CBA. If it is small market friendly another owner can make it work here, if they cut some of the revenue sharing it wont work.

The CBA they opted out of was the "friendliest" to small markets ever.

 

There will be no lockout next year.

 

The only possible buyer in Canada is still wondering how they got snookered into paying 10 million a game. They will not buy the team and build a stadium (no way the other 31 owners approve a move to the Skydome) based on what they've seen in the stands and on the field thus far.

 

OP--feel better?

[Orton's Arm]

You appear far too rational, posts too well thought out, and far too well written. Shame on you....

I'd argue that the post to which you were responding was one of the Dean's weaker posts.

 

Ralph is in his 90s. There is currently no succession plan for the team after he dies, beyond "sell the Bills to the highest bidder."

 

While Ralph Wilson has personally (and commendably) been committed to keeping the Bills in Buffalo, no provisions at all have been made for keeping the team in Buffalo after he's dead. In the absence of such a plan, doubts about the Bills' future (post-Ralph) are perfectly valid.

 

This team's future, post-Ralph, involves an unknown owner, who will receive offers of currently unknown size to move the team. There is a significant chance the new owner will be highly leveraged, which means he or she will likely have a strong incentive to maximize the team's revenue to offset those hefty interest expenses.

 

We don't know what financial incentives the new owner will face, or how much (if any) loyalty that new owner will feel toward Buffalo. In the absence of that information, it would be extremely foolhardy to firmly conclude that the new Bills' owner--whoever he or she might be--will keep the team in Buffalo.

[uncle flap]

Do you recall the Colts leaving in the middle of the night? The Browns moving to Baltimore? These things basically happened in the blink of an eye. Yes the Cardinals move to Pheonix and the Rams to St. Louis took a decent length of time. But with a lockout looming there may not even be time to say good bye. The franchise may simply fade away.....

 

good point, but i see jacksonville as much more likely to move (or vanish in the night) to one of the cities currently making a push for a team.

 

the bills days here may be numbered but i still think we'll have quite a bit of warning before they're gone.

[The Dean]

I'd argue that the post to which you were responding was one of the Dean's weaker posts.

 

Ralph is in his 90s. There is currently no succession plan for the team after he dies, beyond "sell the Bills to the highest bidder."

 

While Ralph Wilson has personally (and commendably) been committed to keeping the Bills in Buffalo, no provisions at all have been made for keeping the team in Buffalo after he's dead. In the absence of such a plan, doubts about the Bills' future (post-Ralph) are perfectly valid.

 

This team's future, post-Ralph, involves an unknown owner, who will receive offers of currently unknown size to move the team. There is a significant chance the new owner will be highly leveraged, which means he or she will likely have a strong incentive to maximize the team's revenue to offset those hefty interest expenses.

 

We don't know what financial incentives the new owner will face, or how much (if any) loyalty that new owner will feel toward Buffalo. In the absence of that information, it would be extremely foolhardy to firmly conclude that the new Bills' owner--whoever he or she might be--will keep the team in Buffalo.

 

 

All of what you say still doesn't convince me this will be the Bills last year in Buffalo, which was the OP's topic. Many more things need to happen for the Bills to leave after this year than for them to stay. That was, and remains, my point.