Griswold Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 An article from Pro Football Weekly that is very pessimistic about the financial future. Pop goes the pigskin and all else . Ramifications mentioned: 2 to 4 teams will fold 18 game season seat licenses implode ticket prices drop game becomes more violent markets dismal until 2016 Baseball and Basketball will fare worse than NFL Teams won't be lured into moving by sweetheart deals RTFA. Actually, I think the Bills are better prepared financially than most other teams to endure this. The finances of the Bills are a result of the conservative finances of their fans. Luxury boxes implode... won't bother the Bills much. Naming Right$ fall... who cares. US dollar falls, and Canadian dollar stays same or improves... good news. Merchandising revenue plumments... big deal. If the article is correct: I see some trouble for the Bills, but huge trouble for the Patsies, Cowboys, Skins, and others. Those teams have thrived on the sports bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corp000085 Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 The Bills are one of, if not THE best team in the NFL to handle a market collapse of the NFL. They are very financially conservative, have zero debt, and are able to (presumably) be in the black. If they can survive the immediate future (from now till ownership changes, which will happen in the next 10 years or less) and get another sweetheart lease for the stadium, I think that there will be zero chance of the team moving. At the end of the day, the big $$ teams like cowboys, pats, etc. make a lot more money, but pay a lot more back into debt. If something happens with the financial stability of the NFL, you'll see the big boys fail first and the small guys like Buffalo and Green Bay survive and thrive. Summary: I'm not worried in the least, and I'm actually looking forward to a correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 RTFA. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corp000085 Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=RTFA Read the F'ing Article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hplarrm Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Given the global fiscal implosion described in the Eliott Wave which appears to be the assumption of the economic state for this report I would be quite surprised if the NFL did so well that they only lost 2 to 4 teams. If merely a majority of the predictions mentioned come true then I suspect that our entire economic structure would implode and little things like national plane connections would be difficult to do and the schedule would be defined by how far a team could reasonably travel by bus. This would force a working model to be based on divisional play leading to a small group of victors then making the playoffs to winnow things down to as few teams as possible to large travel to playoff. Even this model assumes things about televising and advertising which are impossible to predict. Perhaps the answer would be to turn the NFL into a more true gladatorial sport where the penalty for losing is the death penalty depending on whether the Emperor (or Emperess) gives a thumbs or thumbs down. The report seems based on a future where it really is quite impossible to predict downstream outcomes essential to determining the result. In order to make a prediction that remotely makes sense and has at least some reasonable chance of occurring (the prediction certainly COULD happen but the chances it WILL happen are small and the impact of being wrong so large to the point of being easily ignored for planning purposes). Its a nice read but a pretty worthless exercise for action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 "consuming the seed corn" is a phrase I use often to describe our economy since Reagan. The huge financial rise did not come from an increase in productivity. It came from liquidating our factories and assets and sending them overseas. America used to make stuff. Now we shuffle paper and gamble. Good article but the crap really has to hit the fan for that scenario to happen. However you feel about stimulus spending, that has probably been the thing that has kept the wolves from the door for now. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Movinon Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 If Elliott Wave prophecies of a world market collapse come to fruition, I don’t think too many people will care too much about the state of the NFL: EWI bases its financial predictions on the long-term psychology swings of the masses — from overall pessimism to optimism and back. These swings eventually generate the price movements and trends we see in the world's stock markets. EWI's analysts believe that a long-term wave of optimism officially ended in 2008, marked by that year's punishing stock market crash, and that the world is now plunging into a period of historic pessimism. Financially, this should result in an ocean of bank failures, the bankruptcy of many state and local governments, harsh unemployment and relentless deflation (plunging prices), all capped off with a 96 percent wipeout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average — from its current levels of approximately 10,000 down to … get ready for this … 400. That's Dow 400. And EWI predicts this chaos won't relent until sometime during the year 2016, when all of the world's markets reach a final bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Perhaps the answer would be to turn the NFL into a more true gladatorial sport where the penalty for losing is the death penalty depending on whether the Emperor (or Emperess) gives a thumbs or thumbs down. wilson would never agree to the free bread however, would lose too much on concessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 wilson would never agree to the free bread however, would lose too much on concessions. Hey.. a Wilson is cheap comment...this is new for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
\GoBillsInDallas/ Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 The Bills are one of, if not THE best team in the NFL to handle a market collapse of the NFL. They are very financially conservative, have zero debt, and are able to (presumably) be in the black. And when Ralph dies, and the estate tax kicks in, this argument gets shots to hell in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=RTFA Read the F'ing Article. Why must we always curse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corp000085 Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 And when Ralph dies, and the estate tax kicks in, this argument gets shots to hell in an instant. Eh, I still don't think the Bills are going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 "consuming the seed corn" is a phrase I use often to describe our economy since Reagan. The huge financial rise did not come from an increase in productivity. It came from liquidating our factories and assets and sending them overseas. America used to make stuff. Now we shuffle paper and gamble. Good article but the crap really has to hit the fan for that scenario to happen. However you feel about stimulus spending, that has probably been the thing that has kept the wolves from the door for now. PTR Never let a good rant stand in the way of reality, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Never let a good rant stand in the way of reality, eh? Please explain further. You can PM me. If I'm wrong about something, I'd appreciate being corrected. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Please explain further. You can PM me. If I'm wrong about something, I'd appreciate being corrected. PTR It wasn't supply-side economics that killed manufacturing. It was labor costs and environmental regulations handicapping our products versus those produced in completely unregulated economies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griswold Posted July 19, 2010 Author Share Posted July 19, 2010 http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=RTFA Read the F'ing Article. I always thought it was "Read the Full Article" ..but F'ing works situationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Given the global fiscal implosion described in the Eliott Wave which appears to be the assumption of the economic state for this report I would be quite surprised if the NFL did so well that they only lost 2 to 4 teams. If merely a majority of the predictions mentioned come true then I suspect that our entire economic structure would implode and little things like national plane connections would be difficult to do and the schedule would be defined by how far a team could reasonably travel by bus. This would force a working model to be based on divisional play leading to a small group of victors then making the playoffs to winnow things down to as few teams as possible to large travel to playoff. Even this model assumes things about televising and advertising which are impossible to predict. Perhaps the answer would be to turn the NFL into a more true gladatorial sport where the penalty for losing is the death penalty depending on whether the Emperor (or Emperess) gives a thumbs or thumbs down. The report seems based on a future where it really is quite impossible to predict downstream outcomes essential to determining the result. In order to make a prediction that remotely makes sense and has at least some reasonable chance of occurring (the prediction certainly COULD happen but the chances it WILL happen are small and the impact of being wrong so large to the point of being easily ignored for planning purposes). Its a nice read but a pretty worthless exercise for action. So this is Barry Brady/FFS's new handle, I see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Not to worry. The NFL foresaw the economic meltdown. The CBA and their "war chest" will solve all their problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Eh, I still don't think the Bills are going anywhere. You would be right. It costs a tremendous amount of money to move an NFL team, and if the economy doesn't boom there is no way an owner could even make his debt payments. $1 billion for the team $500 million to $1 billion for the stadium $200 million to $1 billion relocation fee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 The NFL, along with just about every other business/industry/vocation/avocation on the globe, is facing a topping-out, followed by a substantial decline, eventually settling into a pattern of "new normality." The current economic problems are the opening salvo in this change and, stuff such as Elliot Wave entrail reading aside, there will never by a recovery to the way things were 30-40 years ago. Why? Demographics. With the glaring exception of the Muslim "world," birthrates are in rapid decline around the globe. In much of Europe, it is below replacement level. Same for Japan. China's One-Child policy should cut that nation's population in half by the end of the century. If Russia continues on its current trajectory (life-expectancy for men has fallen to 56!!!), the Russian "race" will virtually vanish within three generations. Mexico's birthrate is 2.2 children, an all-time low. Etc., etc. A smaller population needs less of everything (aka, Supply and Demand). After WWII, there was a world-wide birth explosion, the "baby boom," the greatest birthrate in history. This led to a huge growth in everything from tennis shoes to hamburgers to cars to colleges to video games to sports franchises. Those "kids" are now beginning to retire, and they'll be selling off houses, Harleys, stocks, season tickets, and all the rest. But they will be selling off into a smaller market. It's obvious that a smaller population base can only sop up so much of all that stuff (housing included. NFL tickets too). The growth in the population of the US overall has long been fueled in the main by immigration. Take that away and the economic collapse would have already occurred years ago. Anyone from WNY has already seen this phenomenon in action. A lessening population has meant the abandonment of housing for which there is no market, the decline of infrastructure maintenance as the lower population led to lower tax receipts, demolition of "redundant" factories, closure of churches and schools, and so forth. How drastic is this change in only one century? In 1900, Buffalo was the 8th largest city in the US, and had the highest per capita concentration of millionaires in the world. Much of the financial growth in sports, like the NFL, had to do with the massive growth in population tied to technological innovation (television in particular) which, like the invention of the CD and the DVD, opened the market for the basic product, repackaged (from no national television broadcasts in the 50s, to two leagues, to multiple channels competing for the product, to cable, satellite to computers to smart phones, and so on). It appears that not only has the NFL just about sucked up the available money from every conceivable source, but that overall ratings are now in decline in tandem with having reached its peak of income generation. To sum it all up, Demographics are Destiny. But, hey, just like the Bills still exist, still have rabid fans, still make money, the NFL will continue to be around for a long time to come. There just won't be as much easy money lying around. The days of any knucklehead with an NFL franchise being able to extort cities for stadiums, or fans for "personal licenses," or networks for more and more dough, are coming to an end. What I think the successful franchises in this new environment will look like is a lot like...the Buffalo Bills. Sorry for going on so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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