Draft Grades--What do They Measure?

[Casey D]

As everyone here knows, drafting players is more art than science. Real GMs and armchair ones are all making their best guesses as to who can make the jump from college to NFL. History shows it is a very inexact art, see Tim Couch v. Tom Brady.

 

Whether a draft is any good or not turns on something that cannot be known yet--how good were you at predicting who will become a good NFL player. That's why the old adage is you can't judge a draft for three years--it takes at least that long to see if your prediction is right.

 

So why are the Bills grades by the "experts" mostly low? Well the Bills thought, for example, Torell Troup was better than Terrence Cody. So the Bills get a lower grade because they "reached" for Troup, when they could have had Cody. At the end of the day, this grade reduction is based totally on the "expert's view" that Cody will be the better player in the NFL, which, of course, is unknowable right now. The Bills obviously prefer Troup.

 

The Bills are also downgraded because they did not get a stud LT and a franchise QB. I don't know how Wang and Brown will turn out, but the Bills obviously believed that Claussen and McCoy are not a franchise QBs, and any LT other than Williams and Okung were not surefire LTs. So they went elsewhere for talent and value, but for that they are downgraded. But if Claussen and McCoy turn out to be Jason Campbell and Brady Quinn, how wrong were the Bills?

 

The Bills would have gotten a great grade from folks like Kiper and Bob Matthews if they took Bulaga, Claussen and Cody instead Spiller, Troup and Carrington. Are they any better with the former rather the latter--the Bills FO thought not, because they could have done that if they wanted. At bottom, whether this was a good draft turns on whether they the Bills new FO are correct that they got "value" at each pick, because they had a higher grade than the draft position they took the guy. Only time will tell, but this grading stuff is a circular clusterf%$k.

[K-9]

Nothing until after 2-3 seasons have passed.

 

The only thing the immediate draft evaluations offer is no more than a confirmation of where the various draftniks had the players rated pre-draft vs. where they were drafted. It is a totally illogical process when these kids haven't played a down in the NFL.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KOKBILLS]

As everyone here knows, drafting players is more art than science. Real GMs and armchair ones are all making their best guesses as to who can make the jump from college to NFL. History shows it is a very inexact art, see Tim Couch v. Tom Brady.

 

Whether a draft is any good or not turns on something that cannot be known yet--how good were you at predicting who will become a good NFL player. That's why the old adage is you can't judge a draft for three years--it takes at least that long to see if your prediction is right.

 

So why are the Bills grades by the "experts" mostly low? Well the Bills thought, for example, Torell Troup was better than Terrence Cody. So the Bills get a lower grade because they "reached" for Troup, when they could have had Cody. At the end of the day, this grade reduction is based totally on the "expert's view" that Cody will be the better player in the NFL, which, of course, is unknowable right now. The Bills obviously prefer Troup.

 

The Bills are also downgraded because they did not get a stud LT and a franchise QB. I don't know how Wang and Brown will turn out, but the Bills obviously believed that Claussen and McCoy are not a franchise QBs, and any LT other than Williams and Okung were not surefire LTs. So they went elsewhere for talent and value, but for that they are downgraded. But if Claussen and McCoy turn out to be Jason Campbell and Brady Quinn, how wrong were the Bills?

 

The Bills would have gotten a great grade from folks like Kiper and Bob Matthews if they took Bulaga, Claussen and Cody instead Spiller, Troup and Carrington. Are they any better with the former rather the latter--the Bills FO thought not, because they could have done that if they wanted. At bottom, whether this was a good draft turns on whether they the Bills new FO are correct that they got "value" at each pick, because they had a higher grade than the draft position they took the guy. Only time will tell, but this grading stuff is a circular clusterf%$k.

 

I just Posted My opinion on the Draft Grades in this Thread...

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?showtopic=112602

 

I should have waited...

[BillsfaninSixburgh]

My grades of these so-called "draft experts" based on what 31 of 32 NFL GMs thought about Clausen (and really, would Carolina have picked him in Round 1 if they had a first round pick??)

 

Kiper - F+ (rated Clausen 4th best player overall; selected 48th giving some teams the opportunity to pass on him TWICE! I give him the "plus" because he correctly picked the top 3 picks. Oh yeah - so did every other schmuck in the country!)

 

Matthews F- (his draft homework consisted of reading Kiper's analysis and deciding Clausen is the Golden Boy too. Bob - have you had an original thought in the last 5 years??).

 

HAIL BUDDY!!!!

 

Da Bills, they're an ugly mutt. But they're MY MUTT!!!

(Please Buddy, prove me right on this one!!!)

[DrDawkinstein]

My grades of these so-called "draft experts" based on what 31 of 32 NFL GMs thought about Clausen (and really, would Carolina have picked him in Round 1 if they had a first round pick??)

 

Kiper - F+ (rated Clausen 4th best player overall; selected 48th giving some teams the opportunity to pass on him TWICE! I give him the "plus" because he correctly picked the top 3 picks. Oh yeah - so did every other schmuck in the country!)

 

Matthews F- (his draft homework consisted of reading Kiper's analysis and deciding Clausen is the Golden Boy too. Bob - have you had an original thought in the last 5 years??).

 

HAIL BUDDY!!!!

 

Da Bills, they're an ugly mutt. But they're MY MUTT!!!

(Please Buddy, prove me right on this one!!!)

 

 

this is exactly why the experts grade the teams, so no one bothers grading the experts. it's their last shot at saving face before we all move on and everyone forgets how wrong they were.

 

this is basically what happens:

 

draft expert: "here is what I think about these players!"

 

*reality happens*

 

draft expert: "here is how i grade reality against my expert opinion!"

[All_Pro_Bills]

this is exactly why the experts grade the teams, so no one bothers grading the experts. it's their last shot at saving face before we all move on and everyone forgets how wrong they were.

 

this is basically what happens:

 

draft expert: "here is what I think about these players!"

 

*reality happens*

 

draft expert: "here is how i grade reality against my expert opinion!"

 

That's exactly it. The draft experts don't get graded, second guessed, or fired. Because their picks never have to be proven out on the field on Sunday's. Only the 32 teams making the actual picks are subject to criticism and have to back up their work with results.

[Casey D]

this is exactly why the experts grade the teams, so no one bothers grading the experts. it's their last shot at saving face before we all move on and everyone forgets how wrong they were.

 

this is basically what happens:

 

draft expert: "here is what I think about these players!"

 

*reality happens*

 

draft expert: "here is how i grade reality against my expert opinion!"

Right, expert says, this is what I think they should do, and then they give a grade based how close the team conformed to the expert's position. Want a good grade, do what the experts say. Devaite, get a low grade. Does not mean either the team or the expert are "right or wrong" --only time will tell. But the grade is nothing more than how big the difference of opinion between the team and the expert on what to do.

[Bill from NYC]

The Bills are also downgraded because they did not get a stud LT and a franchise QB. I don't know how Wang and Brown will turn out, but the Bills obviously believed that Claussen and McCoy are not a franchise QBs, and any LT other than Williams and Okung were not surefire LTs.

 

You see, the bolded is not necessarily true. They might think that Davis is a very good player, or Brandon Graham for that matter. Reid gave up a ton for Graham. What would make you think that the Bills didn't like him?

 

My point is that the Bills (in this case I think that Mr. Wilson was the deciding vote) targeted Spiller. Either they thought he was the best player in terms of winning games, or they feel that if he runs for a few TDs, people will buy jerseys and tickets. In other words, Mr. Wilson makes more money.

It is probably some combination of the 2, but we have been down this road before.

[CarolinaBill]

You see, the bolded is not necessarily true. They might think that Davis is a very good player, or Brandon Graham for that matter. Reid gave up a ton for Graham. What would make you think that the Bills didn't like him?

 

My point is that the Bills (in this case I think that Mr. Wilson was the deciding vote) targeted Spiller. Either they thought he was the best player in terms of winning games, or they feel that if he runs for a few TDs, people will buy jerseys and tickets. In other words, Mr. Wilson makes more money.

It is probably some combination of the 2, but we have been down this road before.

chan said he wanted a "waterbug" or scat back, they got spiller, doesnt sound like ralph made the call, sounds like buddy and chan saw that we had no playmakers, then drafted the best one in the draft.

[BillsfaninSixburgh]

Bills biggest position need - "PS"

 

PS = Point Scorer

 

Consensus No. 1 Point Scorer in draft - CJ Spiller

 

Need + Value = Grade: A+

 

And there ya have it!

[Casey D]

You see, the bolded is not necessarily true. They might think that Davis is a very good player, or Brandon Graham for that matter. Reid gave up a ton for Graham. What would make you think that the Bills didn't like him?

 

My point is that the Bills (in this case I think that Mr. Wilson was the deciding vote) targeted Spiller. Either they thought he was the best player in terms of winning games, or they feel that if he runs for a few TDs, people will buy jerseys and tickets. In other words, Mr. Wilson makes more money.

It is probably some combination of the 2, but we have been down this road before.

I don't think so. From everything we can tell, including NGU, the Bills had Spiller down with one of the highest grades in the draft. Higher than Graham or Davis. That does not mean they did not like Graham or Davis, but not nearly as much as Spiller. It appears that they wanted an OT, but not an the expense of taking someone, like Davis, whose first round grade was much lower than Spiller.

 

The idea that this is some Ralph Wilson scheme, while of course possible, strikes me as only fitting your predisposition that Wilson is cheap, all about the money, and is not validated by the pick of Spiller. But ces't le vie.

[Bill from NYC]

The idea that this is some Ralph Wilson scheme, while of course possible, strikes me as only fitting your predisposition that Wilson is cheap, all about the money, and is not validated by the pick of Spiller. But ces't le vie.

 

I am not one who posts horrible things about Mr. Wilson. I respect him, and thank him for keeping the Bills in Western New York. That is not the point. Mr. Wison at 90 knows more about cash than I would if I had 100 lifetimes. This is his forte, and by no means an insult. I don't consider him a "football man." He is about knowing how to make millions.

Drafting a first round OT wouldn't get too many fans charged up. A flashy back DOES draw interest and WILL make him more money, assuming Spiller (like any rookie) is any good.

 

Btw, I obviously have no proof that Mr. Wilson was behind this pick but again, picks such as these are not uncommon for the Bills, right?

[John Adams]

You see, the bolded is not necessarily true. They might think that Davis is a very good player, or Brandon Graham for that matter. Reid gave up a ton for Graham. What would make you think that the Bills didn't like him?

 

My point is that the Bills (in this case I think that Mr. Wilson was the deciding vote) targeted Spiller. Either they thought he was the best player in terms of winning games, or they feel that if he runs for a few TDs, people will buy jerseys and tickets. In other words, Mr. Wilson makes more money.

It is probably some combination of the 2, but we have been down this road before.

 

You could be right but leading up to the draft, there was a lot of stuff leaking about how much film the Bills were studying of Spiller. I prefer to think that the Bills looked at their board at #9 and thought that although some players were there at positions of need, they couldn't pass up Spiller. The guy is pretty special.

 

That said, the rest of the draft was big strong guys (even at WR) and I suspect that shows how seriously Nix recognizes the team's missing "tough" factor.

 

If Nix can sign Gaither, I'll start getting excited about the offense. Until then, I suspect that the line will be every bit as bad as last year.

[Bill from NYC]

You could be right but leading up to the draft, there was a lot of stuff leaking about how much film the Bills were studying of Spiller. I prefer to think that the Bills looked at their board at #9 and thought that although some players were there at positions of need, they couldn't pass up Spiller. The guy is pretty special.

 

That said, the rest of the draft was big strong guys (even at WR) and I suspect that shows how seriously Nix recognizes the team's missing "tough" factor.

 

If Nix can sign Gaither, I'll start getting excited about the offense. Until then, I suspect that the line will be every bit as bad as last year.

 

Assuming Wood is 100% (quite the reach mind you), I think the interior 3 will be good. I like Hangartner more than most on this board seem to. The thing is, the only thing I feel certain about at OT is that we have bad players. Very bad.

This is not to say that Wang won't be good. He might be great, but we don't know yet. Gaither would be better than what we have by leaps and bounds, but I hope they don't give away a first round pick, because it looks like it will be at least a top 10.

[Casey D]

I am not one who posts horrible things about Mr. Wilson. I respect him, and thank him for keeping the Bills in Western New York. That is not the point. Mr. Wison at 90 knows more about cash than I would if I had 100 lifetimes. This is his forte, and by no means an insult. I don't consider him a "football man." He is about knowing how to make millions.

Drafting a first round OT wouldn't get too many fans charged up. A flashy back DOES draw interest and WILL make him more money, assuming Spiller (like any rookie) is any good.

 

Btw, I obviously have no proof that Mr. Wilson was behind this pick but again, picks such as these are not uncommon for the Bills, right?

Not really--it was more the MO of the Donahoe regime--although I think it unfair to lump Spiller into the McGahee and Roscoe bucket because I think he is ready and the real deal.

 

And why would a 91 year old man, with more money than he can ever spend, worry about a few million dollars at this point in time. He is not a football man, and I think his football people did something thay have NOT done recently--take the best player available irrespective of position. You want splash to create flase excitiement, take Claussen. I think they took value--as Nix/Gailey see it. Whether they got value, only time will tell. But this draft is being so panned by the media for not getting a QB, I don't see how this can be viewed as a 'money move."

[John Adams]

Assuming Wood is 100% (quite the reach mind you), I think the interior 3 will be good. I like Hangartner more than most on this board seem to. The thing is, the only thing I feel certain about at OT is that we have bad players. Very bad.

This is not to say that Wang won't be good. He might be great, but we don't know yet. Gaither would be better than what we have by leaps and bounds, but I hope they don't give away a first round pick, because it looks like it will be at least a top 10.

 

Agree 100%. I have no confidence that Wood will be ready this season. If he is, great...but I have to think he won't be back in form until 2011 (if that season even happens).

 

I hear what you're saying regarding tickets but going into the draft, Nix was publicly clear that the team recognized the need for tackles. I honestly think they felt like Spiller was too good to pass up. Looking at the draft, you can't say they went for flashy picks the rest of the day. Troupe won't sell tickets. Neither will Carrington.

 

The problem with the draft in Rounds 2-3 is that the switch to 3-4 left holes the Bills have to fill...in addition to the OT spot.

 

I don't think the O-line will be any better than 2009 and that will be a huge problem. I don't see the team regressing on offense (it would be hard to get worse) but I can't imagine they will be much better either unless someone like Gaither at LT and another RT vet fall into the roster. Wang and anyone else are for 2011 and beyond. Let's not kid ourselves: guys drafted in the 5th round are not NFL starters.