Jerry Hughes a possibility at #9?

[PIZ]

I have seen on a few boards now that they think Jerry Hughes will go at #9. Apparently Nix and Modrak like him a lot? I have no idea. All of my draft mags say he is a round 2 guy. Any chance this will be the guy? Is he worth the #9 pick? I remember when Freeney was taken about 10 spots earlier than he was projected and he turned out to be a steal.

 

 

 

Jerry Hughes profile

[Kingfish]

I have seen on a few boards now that they think Jerry Hughes will go at #9. Apparently Nix and Modrak like him a lot? I have no idea. All of my draft mags say he is a round 2 guy. Any chance this will be the guy? Is he worth the #9 pick? I remember when Freeney was taken about 10 spots earlier than he was projected and he turned out to be a steal.

 

 

 

Jerry Hughes profile

 

I used to think the Bills were a lock to take an OT at 9 but now I really have no idea what they'll do. They could take Spiller, Tebow, Clausen, D. Williams, McClain, D. Morgan, Anthony Davis, or Dez Bryant and I wouldn't be shocked at all.

[PIZ]

I used to think the Bills were a lock to take an OT at 9 but now I really have no idea what they'll do. They could take Spiller, Tebow, Clausen, D. Williams, McClain, D. Morgan, Anthony Davis, or Dez Bryant and I wouldn't be shocked at all.

 

I'd like a game changer at #9 and for me that would be Spiller or Clausen. On defense, a game changer would be a sack specialist - is that Hughes?

[BeastMode54]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft...ducing-sackseer

 

The trends that SackSEER identifies for edge rushers drafted in the first two rounds persist with later-round edge rushers. For instance, SackSEER would have identified Robert Mathis and Adalius Thomas as top edge rushers. Unsurprisingly, however, SackSEER is not quite as accurate when projecting the edge rusher taken deep in the draft. For now, we are only using the system for players selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. (This will be further discussed in Football Outsiders Almanac 2010.)

 

Let's look at the four elements in SackSEER and why they help indicate a player's ability to successfully rush the passer in the NFL:

 

The vertical leap's importance is based on simple physics. If a 270-pound defensive end has the leg strength to jump 40 inches in the air from a standing position, it is very likely that he will be able to employ that same functional strength to burst quickly and powerfully off the line of scrimmage.

 

The short shuttle run measures change of direction speed, burst, and hip flexibility. DeMarcus Ware had a jaw-dropping 4.07 second short shuttle, and Jevon Kearse ran the short shuttle twice with an average time of 4.12 seconds. No elite edge rusher has emerged from any round of the NFL Draft since at least 1999 with a short shuttle slower than 4.42 seconds.

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The third variable in SackSEER is a metric called SRAM, which stands for "Sack Rate as Modified." This measures sacks per game with a few important adjustments. First, sack rates are adjusted to compensate for the fact that college edge rushers as a whole become more productive as they progress through their college careers. A three-year starter who comes out as a junior will be a better prospect than a three-year starter with the same sack rate who is coming out after his senior year. SRAM also attempts to fill in the gaps for players who spent part of their college careers at positions that are less conducive to pass-rushing success, such as defensive tackle (Tamba Hali), 4-3 linebacker (Clay Matthews), or tight end (Ebenezer Ekuban).

 

The final metric is both the strongest factor and the least intuitive: missed games worth of NCAA eligibility. SackSEER suggests that a college edge rusher who misses numerous games for any reason other than early declaration for the NFL Draft has little chance of succeeding as a professional. This includes players who miss games due to injury, suspensions, academic standards, or sickness. Medical redshirts are included, although standard freshman redshirts are not. Players with health issues in college tend to have health issues in the NFL (Erasmus James, for example). Missing games for other reasons is also indicative of failure at the NFL level. Scroll down to the comment on Jason Pierre-Paul for the remarkable list of failed prospects who spent time at junior college.

 

The research behind SackSEER will be discussed in more detail in Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, as will the specifics behind the adjustments to sack rate that create SRAM. For now, we wanted to preview this year's draft with a look at how SackSEER evaluates the top edge rusher prospects of 2010. (Please note that the exact projections listed here may differ from those listed in FOA 2010 because of future refinements to the system.)

2010 Draft Prospects

Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian University

 

Vertical: 34.5", Short Shuttle: 4.15, SRAM: 0.55, Missed Games: 3

Projection: 27.7 Sacks through Year 5

 

Jerry Hughes separates himself from the rest of the pack by virtue of his elite 4.15-second short shuttle run at the Combine. Not only is Hughes' short shuttle time the best amongst defensive linemen in 2010, but it is also better than any shuttle time run by any edge rusher at the Combine in 2009 or 2008.

 

The other interesting factor with Hughes is a huge jump in SRAM between his sophomore and junior seasons. Hughes recorded only a 0.09 SRAM for his first two years but recorded a 1.0 SRAM during his dominant junior and senior years. This type of improvement compares favorably to other top edge rushers of past drafts. Patrick Kerney, Elvis Dumervil, and Dwight Freeney had 1.0, 2.0., and 3.5 sacks in their first two years, respectively, but subsequently exploded once they became full-time starters in their junior and senior years. Hughes' career path is similar. He was stuck for two years behind Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake at TCU.

 

However, Hughes also bears a certain similarity to another prospect who was not quite as successful as Freeney and company: Jason Babin. Babin, like Hughes, recorded a lot of sacks once becoming a full-time starter at a small school, registered a lightning quick shuttle at the Combine and a mediocre vertical leap. Babin, along with Bryan Thomas, is the type of prospect that SackSEER occasionally misses on: a quick, productive, small-school edge rusher who lacks elite explosion. On the other hand, there are plenty of success stories who share Hughes' particular profile, such as Terrell Suggs, Robert Mathis, and Jared Allen. It all adds up to Hughes being a good, but not great, edge rusher prospect.

[Kingfish]

I'd like a game changer at #9 and for me that would be Spiller or Clausen. On defense, a game changer would be a sack specialist - is that Hughes?

 

Could be I suppose. Modrak spoke glowingly about him at the luncheon. Players do fly up the draft boards, just look at CB Kyle Wilson who is now a possibility at #7.

[dpberr]

Looks like another Aaron Maybin tweener.

 

Why would Nix take a risk with another one when we aren't sure how Maybin is going to do in the 3-4?

 

Too much risk for a pick at #9.

[mrags]

Ive heard nothing but good things about Hughes to this point. Anywhere from being a clone of Terrell Suggs, being the best edge rusher in the draft, possibly the most explosive defensive player in the draft.

 

I think its a good fit. Ive never seen him play but everything I hear sounds awesome.

[mrags]

Looks like another Aaron Maybin tweener.

 

Why would Nix take a risk with another one when we aren't sure how Maybin is going to do in the 3-4?

 

Too much risk for a pick at #9.

 

Hes bigger than Maybin and it sounds like hes much more powerful too. This kid is not a risk from what it sounds like. The experts are saying hes a monster and moving up the boards quickly. This guy will get taken in the 1st. Bet on it.

[Max997]

if the Bills draft Hughes that tells me Schobel isnt coming back

[Beerball]

Looks like another Aaron Maybin tweener.

 

Why would Nix take a risk with another one when we aren't sure how Maybin is going to do in the 3-4?

 

Too much risk for a pick at #9.

Maybin is going to thrive in the 3/4 scheme. I can feel it in my bones.

 

I've heard from sources that Buffalo will play Eastern Caorlina twice next season, that guarantees him double digit sacks.

[Brand J]

Looks like another Aaron Maybin tweener.

 

Why would Nix take a risk with another one when we aren't sure how Maybin is going to do in the 3-4?

 

Too much risk for a pick at #9.

 

Had to go back and dig up Aaron Maybin's draft profile after reading that article. His short shuttle just beat the article's declaration that "no elite pass rusher has run slower than a 4.42 in the short shuttle". (Maybin ran a 4.38) The negatives are absolutely spot on:

 

Aaron Maybin (DE)

Height: 6'4"

Weight: 249

College: Penn State

Conference: Big 10

Hometown: Ellicott City, MD

High School: Mount Hebron

 

Combine Results:

40 Yard Dash : 4.89 seconds

Bench Press : 22.0 reps

Vertical Jump : 38.0 inches

Broad Jump : 124.0 inches

3 Cone Drill : 7.52 seconds

20 Yard Shuttle : 4.38 seconds

 

Featured Prospects

Selected by: Buffalo Bills

Round: 1

Pick (Overall): 11 (11)

Discuss

Pick Analysis: The Bills take the dynamic pass-rushing specialist from Penn State. Though Maybin left State College, Pa., as a one-year starter, he racked up 12 sacks in his final season and dazzled scouts with his exceptional first-step quickness. For a team in desperate need of a pass rush, Maybin appears to be the ideal fit.

 

Overview

 

Listed second on the depth chart behind Maurice Evans at left defensive end, Maybin was thrust into the starting lineup the third game of his junior season. Coaches were looking to spark a unit hit by graduation, suspensions and injuries and felt that the youngster would be given an audition to see if he could ignite the pass rush.

 

And spark the defense he did.

 

Maybin became the 93rd Penn State player to earn All-American first-team honors, the 76th athlete from the Joe Paterno era to receive that honor. The legendary coach has seen at least one of his players earn All-American accolades in 38 of his 43 seasons as head coach.

 

Maybin finished the 2008 season leading the Big Ten Conference and ranking seventh in the nation with 12 quarterback sacks. That total tied for fifth-best on the school single-season list. His 20 stops behind the line of scrimmage rank as the sixth-highest season total by a Nittany Lion. The left end also registered at least one tackle for loss in all 13 games in which he played.

 

Many Penn State fans thought they were seeing the rise of their team's next great defensive presence. But the 230-pounder felt that after just one season as a starter and two campaigns with the varsity, that he was ready to test his wares in the NFL.

 

Becoming a force to be reckoned with is not something new for Maybin. At Mount Hebron High School, he earned 2005 Baltimore Sun All-Metro team, second-team big school All-State and first-team All-Howard County accolades. As a junior, he produced 79 tackles with nine sacks, followed by ten sacks and 80 tackles in his final season.

 

During his first collegiate season, he redshirted, performing on the scout team at Penn State in 2006. He saw action in 13 games in '07 as a reserve defensive end. He managed only 12 tackles (eight solo), but four of them were quarterback sacks, as he also caused one fumble and deflected a third-down pass.

 

The 2008 season opened with Maybin playing with the second unit. He took over left end duties vs. Syracuse, going on to start ten of the team's next 11 contests. He had at least one tackle behind the line of scrimmage in every game in which he played. The All-Big Ten Conference choice and Ted Hendricks Award finalist also registered at least one sack in 10 games, caused three fumbles and ranked sixth on the team with 49 tackles.

 

High School

 

Attended Mount Hebron (Ellicott City, Md.) High School, playing football for head coach Larry Luthe...Earned 2005 Baltimore Sun All-Metro team, second-team big school All-State and first-team All-Howard County accolades...As a junior, he produced 79 tackles with nine sacks, followed by 10 sacks and 80 tackles in his final season...Participated in drama programs and did volunteer work.

 

Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.

Analysis

 

Positives: Tall with a frame to add a needed 10-15 pounds of muscle in his upper body. Superior quickness off the snap on wide rushes. Combines speed and length to challenge offensive tackles in passing situations. Very good straight-line speed to chase plays down the line or hustle downfield. Keeps cut blocks off his knees, recovers and maintains balance. Great length and vertical to affect passing lanes. Dropped into zone coverage often, got into his zone in a hurry when decisive. Breaks down in space and can change direction in the backfield to handle cutbacks and misdirection. Improving his hand usage as a pass rusher.

 

Negatives: A bit thin in the hips and might not grow into a defensive end build. Does not always use his length to get off offensive tackle or tight end blocks. Lacks the strength to bull rush. Runs stiff and upright, looks much better straight-ahead than laterally. Doesn't turn the corner as fast as you'd like because of his inflexible lower body. Needs more pass-rush moves. Always runs straight up the field, allowing tackles to direct him around the pocket. Demoted to backup status during the week of the Rose Bowl for undisclosed reasons.

 

Compares To: PARYS HARALSON, San Francisco -- Maybin could eventually develop into another Chad Brown (Colorado; Pittsburgh Steelers) at the next level, but the NFL's love for pass rushers, rather than looking at the "complete" picture has spelled doom and gloom for a lot of teams taking "tweeners" early in the draft. Undersized defensive ends often fail to adjust to life as outside linebackers. Could Maybin be the next flash in the pan? If used strictly as an edge rusher, he brings good value, but that is not why teams pay a hefty price to ink a first-round pick.

 

Aaron Maybin Draft Profile

[KOKBILLS]

Looks like another Aaron Maybin tweener.

 

Why would Nix take a risk with another one when we aren't sure how Maybin is going to do in the 3-4?

 

Too much risk for a pick at #9.

 

I've been known to bash the Maybin Pick with the best of em'...But IMHO Maybin was a tweener for a 4-3 Defense and a MUCH better fit for a 3-4...We'll see about that soon enough...

 

I think the same can be said about Hughes...He's got a TON of ability and as an OLB in a 3-4 he could really shine...Modrak was pretty clear that The Bills feel he can play OLB in the 3-4 without a problem...He may very well be a tweener on a 4-3 Defense...He's going to be a liability vs. The Run in a 4-3...But not so much on a 3-4...

 

I really like Hughes...If The Bills Picked him at #9 I would not be surprised at all (though I think they can Trade down a bit safely and still get him)...The Kid is a Gamer...Nix talked about impact Players...Hughes has impact written all over him...

[dpberr]

Oh, I don't want Maybin to fail. I'd love for him to be a dominant LB in the 3-4 and chalk up last year to the holdout and the Tampa-2.

 

I just don't think the Bills have the luxury of taking a guy at #9 that won't produce in 2010. I realize for every Maybin you'll get an Orakpo that will transition just fine.

 

I just read these negatives and I see Maybin 2.0.

 

http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingRepo...erry-Hughes.php

[ddaryl]

LB DL and OL are the 3 positions the Bills need ot target heavily in tis draft.

 

Hughes at #9 would be a solid step towards rebuilding this team

[PIZ]

Is Jerry Hughes a better player / prospect than Brandon Graham? They sound like the same type of player, and very similar size.

[Bufcomments]

If in fact the Bills trade down I see them picking Hughes say between 15-20 if they can find a trade team.

And I would not be mad if they did.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Firstly, let me get the exception out of the way. DeMarcus Ware played at Troy in the Sunbelt Conference. So there are exceptions of course.

 

That said, I'd be a bit concerned about Hughes having played in the Mountain West Conference which is not a great conference.

 

Derrick Morgan played in the ACC while Brandon Graham played in the Big Ten, which are close to the top in college football.

 

So if you look at the schedules and the opponents, the level of competition is not equal. Morgan and Graham played against more future NFL players than did Hughes.

 

Hughes would be much too risky because of that, to draft at #9 IMO.

 

Part of the draft is to mitigate risk. It would be one hell of a ballsy pick for a team to take Hughes in the top ten.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Is Jerry Hughes a better player / prospect than Brandon Graham? They sound like the same type of player, and very similar size.

IMO Hughes is much better than Graham.

[Hazed and Amuzed]

IMO Hughes is much better than Graham.

 

 

Ehh I understand that it is your opinion but I don't see it. I'm not going to pretend that I've followed either of their careers but after watching these highlights, Graham looks like a much better prospect.

 

Jerry Hughes

 

 

Brandon Graham

 

 

Graham seems to always be around the ball and Hughes while good seems to make plays only when the ball comes his way.

 

Like I said, I know you were just stating an opinion but look for yourself, come back and tell me if you still feel that way.

[Hazed and Amuzed]

BTW Graham abused Buffalo fan favorite Bob Bulagalagalaga a few times this last year.