Buckeye Eric Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 XM predicts it will break even by mid 2005. XM's cost of doing business is also coming down -- quickly. In 2004's second quarter, it cost the XM $101 to acquire each new subscriber, down from $160 in the same period a year ago. Subscriber-acquisition costs also remain relatively high at Sirius -- $234 in the second quarter, more than double XM's. They are spending great deal of money attracting subscribers in a game of catch up. Alas, DirecTV is to the Dish Network is as XM is to Sirius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I love my Sirius radio--I'm just mad I didn't buy the stock at $2 when I bought my Sirius! Great product and I imagine the product will only get better as satellite radio gets better. Listened to it all the way home from the Bills' game back to Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Live&DieBillsFootball Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I am not yet a subscriber, nor do I own any stock in either. Personally, I see myself taking the plunge at some point in the near future. For about $10 a month, you get a choice of a bunch of specific music type stations that are commercial free. No more listening to 10 commercials in between each song and the short playlist of each station. Also, you can listen in the car, or hook up to your home stereo, or use as a walkman. There are starting to be some deals with free equipment as long as you sign up for a year. This would be the jumping in point for a lot of people. I think that FM radio is going to get hammered by sattelite radio in the next couple of years. Advertisers won't want to pay for a smaller number of listeners. It's too bad that you have to make a decision between the 2 providers as both have exclusive content that the other doesn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Alas, DirecTV is to the Dish Network is as XM is to Sirius. I'd say that Sirius is more like DirecTV and XM is more like Dish Network. Sirius has better content, like DirecTV did. That will attract more subscribers. The acquisition costs will decrease as well eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I don't liek the fact that the company is shelling out 500 Mill to stern, a bit hefty, and really kills your profit potential. For people looking on getting in on a solid growth stock with a proven record, and established profit, check out PLMO (Palm one they make the treo's) and TASR (Taser stun gun self defense company) I think PLMO has the most value based on its stock price. Also SBUX (Starbucks has just been riding up for months now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I'm not planning on selling for awhile. I think the stock will hit the mid-30's easily, and go even higher as more people subscribe. I base this on looking at XM, which is trading in the mid-30's, and they don't have nearly the content or executive firepower Sirius now does, and they're losing as much money. 130468[/snapback] Are you serious (pun completely intended). XMSR has 204 million shares outstanding, with a float of about 150 million. They haven't made money yet so there is no P/E. SIRI has 1.26 Billion shares outstanding, 1.24 Billion in the float. SIRI has 6x as many shares as, and it's price is just now one sixth, so they are trading comparatively even right now. SIRI has no earnings either so we can't really make a P/E comparison. I don't think there a concrete argument to be made for a share price of the mid 30s unless there is a justified forward looking earnings multiple that I haven't seen. Saying that SIRI should be in the mid $30s because XMSR is just doesn't compute. That's what soljc was saying with the KO-PEP remark. If my company had the same share price as one if it's peers, I'd be a multi-millionaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Are you serious (pun completely intended). XMSR has 204 million shares outstanding, with a float of about 150 million. They haven't made money yet so there is no P/E. SIRI has 1.26 Billion shares outstanding, 1.24 Billion in the float. SIRI has 6x as many shares as, and it's price is just now one sixth, so they are trading comparatively even right now. SIRI has no earnings either so we can't really make a P/E comparison. I don't think there a concrete argument to be made for a share price of the mid 30s unless there is a justified forward looking earnings multiple that I haven't seen. Saying that SIRI should be in the mid $30s because XMSR is just doesn't compute. That's what soljc was saying with the KO-PEP remark. If my company had the same share price as one if it's peers, I'd be a multi-millionaire. 130782[/snapback] As I said, I'm in it for the long term. I don't expect Sirius to hit the 30's for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZC-Boston Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Are you serious (pun completely intended). XMSR has 204 million shares outstanding, with a float of about 150 million. They haven't made money yet so there is no P/E. SIRI has 1.26 Billion shares outstanding, 1.24 Billion in the float. SIRI has 6x as many shares as, and it's price is just now one sixth, so they are trading comparatively even right now. SIRI has no earnings either so we can't really make a P/E comparison. I don't think there a concrete argument to be made for a share price of the mid 30s unless there is a justified forward looking earnings multiple that I haven't seen. Saying that SIRI should be in the mid $30s because XMSR is just doesn't compute. That's what soljc was saying with the KO-PEP remark. If my company had the same share price as one if it's peers, I'd be a multi-millionaire. 130782[/snapback] Thanks for explaining what I didn't feel like looking up. I thought this was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Sweater? 130666[/snapback] Only if I pin it on one of my choice sweaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doza Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 p/e or no p/e Stern alone will draw people to SIRI like flys to crap. Just gotta coast the wave before it crashes thats all. SIRI could very well be a long termer, but its clearly done well in the short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 XM predicts it will break even by mid 2005. XM's cost of doing business is also coming down -- quickly. In 2004's second quarter, it cost the XM $101 to acquire each new subscriber, down from $160 in the same period a year ago. Subscriber-acquisition costs also remain relatively high at Sirius -- $234 in the second quarter, more than double XM's. They are spending great deal of money attracting subscribers in a game of catch up. Alas, DirecTV is to the Dish Network is as XM is to Sirius. 130676[/snapback] I think you got it the wrong way... Sirius has the radio rights to the NFL. I bought it solely for this reason. XM will get MLB though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZC-Boston Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I think you got it the wrong way... Sirius has the radio rights to the NFL. I bought it solely for this reason. XM will get MLB though... 130869[/snapback] I think the NFL deal is overrated, most football fans are in front of a TV on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 I think the NFL deal is overrated, most football fans are in front of a TV on Sunday 130873[/snapback] You might be right. I prefer to listen to it on the radio... Plopping in front of the tube is such a waste on Sunday. Radio make it more drama. Being out of town, I enjoy hearing the hometown announcers. Call me sick... I would rather listen to a Bills game. I like to visualize the game. I grew up listening to the games. The only thing I have against it is Merv and the Pill. While not bad, it seems he isn't as accurate with ball placement. The Pill also gives out too much techincal names... You think other teams listen in?... Probably not the case, it just sounds to honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doza Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 buy both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 buy both. 130918[/snapback] Actually some car headunits handle both (I think some Alpine)... I don't know if you can equip both sat tuner boxes and run both though? At home would be no prob... Just another source to your receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Ahhh... I have trained many of you well about Sirius. No longer do people have to wait until I have a chance to log on and help people with their questions about Sirius. Don't forget to check out the Satellitle Radio post in the Consumer Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Nice rise. I've sold my pittance short against the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Forget the numbers. Sirius has some real muscle behind them now. What I expect that to mean is they'll be able to streamline their business practices and attract new subscribers, two things that I expect will actually generate revenue and make it all work. Without that happening, Sirius won't do anything. Now for the next year, Sirius should continue to gain market share as they become more recognized, again thanks to adding Karmazin and Stern. Once 2006 rolls around and Stern joins them, I expect Stern disciples to flock to Sirius in droves for a chance to listen to their hero. Therefore I'm keeping the stock at least until partway through 2006. Once reports come out on the number of subscribers, and I expect it to be good, I might consider selling soon after that. I too have concerns over the amount of money they will be paying Stern (did they really have to offer him $100M a year?), but by the time that affects their numbers, I will likely have sold by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guffalo Posted November 24, 2004 Share Posted November 24, 2004 Down .44 cents on open today ... probably profitaking from last 4 day runnup........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 24, 2004 Author Share Posted November 24, 2004 Down .44 cents on open today ... probably profitaking from last 4 day runnup........ 131914[/snapback] Yep. JP Morgan advised clients to sell. Amazing how much power these analysts have. Just part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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