IMOI, my thoughts on Draft...

[Craiger93]

If season ended today, the Bills would pick either 7th or 8th.

 

Bills should look into taking:

 

Alabama, MLB McClain (move Poz to OLB or other ILB if moving to 3-4 DEF)

 

or

 

pick one of two OTs (Okung or Trent Williams) if available.

 

Draft QB in later rounds or wait till next year.

 

 

Sorry, no big "geez whiz's" here. Just trying to get solid talent, if available.

[BeastMode54]

If season ended today, the Bills would pick either 7th or 8th.

 

Bills should look into taking:

 

Alabama, MLB McClain (move Poz to OLB or other ILB if moving to 3-4 DEF)

 

or

 

pick one of two OTs (Okung or Trent Williams) if available.

 

Draft QB in later rounds or wait till next year.

 

 

Sorry, no big "geez whiz's" here. Just trying to get solid talent, if available.

 

I'd love to get Okung

[bills_red]

Trent Williams sucks, why would you want him?

[DDD]

The Bills should draft offensive tackles with their two top picks. We'd all love a QB but there's no Matt Ryan available this year.

[Red]

If season ended today, the Bills would pick either 7th or 8th.

 

Bills should look into taking:

 

Alabama, MLB McClain (move Poz to OLB or other ILB if moving to 3-4 DEF)

 

or

 

pick one of two OTs (Okung or Trent Williams) if available.

 

Draft QB in later rounds or wait till next year.

 

 

Sorry, no big "geez whiz's" here. Just trying to get solid talent, if available.

 

 

No offense bud, but I really hate these 'if the season ended today' posts.

 

The season hasn't ended, it will not be over, and nothing will take place until the actual season IS over.

 

Phew!

 

Now, there are still 4 games to go, and though Detroit most likely will remain a cellar-dweller along with Tampa and St. Louis, Cleveland looked pretty strong playing San Diego and maybe they will finish w/ a better record than us.

 

We have to still play KC, New England, Atlanta and Indy.

 

I see us finishing 5-11, and hopefully that puts us in the top 5.

 

With a top 5 pick, only moving for the DT position with the stud on the board will work. Then, I am for trading back into the later portion of the 1st for a LT.

 

Then, with a 3rd picking Pike from Cincy (if he is available).

 

But all of this talk is garbage. Give the Bills a new GM and pro personnel scouts and coaching staff with some new schemes, and we should hopefully be turning this ship around.

[RTW2012]

Trent Williams sucks, why would you want him?

 

An All-American sucks?

[Peter Griffin]

Trent Williams sucks, why would you want him?

 

You're thinking of Trent Edwards

[VADC Bills]

Full agreement with Rolando McLain he should be our top pick, whether we go to a 3-4 or not.

We need to start drafting players with the potential to be pro bowlers.

I would love Suh, Okung or G McCoy. I just don't think they will be at the 7 or 8 spot.

The remainder of the picks should bolster our OL and defensive front 7.

[Got_Wood]

The Bills should draft offensive tackles with their two top picks. We'd all love a QB but there's no Matt Ryan available this year.

 

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

From reading a lot about this year's QB class, it seems there's a lot of quantity...but not necessarily the quality. We'll see.

[tecmobowlbills]

some of the top teams in the draft will be going QB...St. Louis and Washington most likely. Hopefully a stud drops to us but knowing the bills they will win just enough games to stay out of the premium portion of the draft

[bills_red]

An All-American sucks?

 

Have you seen him play LT this year? He blows, he is a RT and a avg. one at that.

[Red]

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

 

I hate any and all talk about QB's being a "sure thing" coming out of college.

 

How many teams passed on Joe Montana? What round was he drafted in?

 

What about Tom Brady?

 

How many QB's were drafted in the Elway, Kelly, Marino '83 class? How many made a difference for their clubs? How many ever made a Pro-Bowl?

 

Rick Mirer? Todd Marinovich? Akili Smith? Jeff George?

 

For every Eli Manning, there are 4 Ryan Leaf's. Or Kyle Bollers. Or Alex Smith. Or JP Losman.

 

You can blame it on coaching, the much different speed of the game from college, a bad offensive line, whatever. I agree with most that the QB position is the hardest position to play in professional sports.

 

But as anyone who knows anything about scouting football players will tell you, its a crap shoot.

[Got_Wood]

I hate any and all talk about QB's being a "sure thing" coming out of college.

 

How many teams passed on Joe Montana? What round was he drafted in?

 

What about Tom Brady?

 

How many QB's were drafted in the Elway, Kelly, Marino '83 class? How many made a difference for their clubs? How many ever made a Pro-Bowl?

 

Rick Mirer? Todd Marinovich? Akili Smith? Jeff George?

 

For every Eli Manning, there are 4 Ryan Leaf's. Or Kyle Bollers. Or Alex Smith. Or JP Losman.

 

You can blame it on coaching, the much different speed of the game from college, a bad offensive line, whatever. I agree with most that the QB position is the hardest position to play in professional sports.

 

But as anyone who knows anything about scouting football players will tell you, its a crap shoot.

 

Nowhere in there did I say these guys were a sure thing. But, there is a better chance of landing a talented QB when there are more talented players to choose from. While I agree that maybe 80% of these guys will end up not making it, I think the Bills need to take that 20% chance of landing the next franchise guy. We'll have a top 10 pick. We need to snag a star player in that bunch. There are no guarantees, but that doesn't mean you don't try.

[Red]

Nowhere in there did I say these guys were a sure thing. But, there is a better chance of landing a talented QB when there are more talented players to choose from. While I agree that maybe 80% of these guys will end up not making it, I think the Bills need to take that 20% chance of landing the next franchise guy. We'll have a top 10 pick. We need to snag a star player in that bunch. There are no guarantees, but that doesn't mean you don't try.

 

Well, I am not implying that you said that- I only mean to state that every year every Mel Kiper rants and raves about this QB and that QB, when in reality and after it is all over the pro scouts themselves will admit that there is no formula.

 

I know Polian states that you start with a franchise QB and build from there.

 

But I do not feel confident AT ALL with our current front office making any decisions on drafting anyone.

 

I want to see Modrak and Guy fired, and real personnel people hired. I love the Buddy Nix hire, and hope he gets a bigger say in the drafts.

 

If we hired a Bill Parcells (let me dream!), I would have complete faith in what was being done.

 

But with this front office in place, if nothing changes, then the lines (both offensive and defensive) are in serious need of repair and thus more important than taking another chance on a high round "golden" boy.

[CountDorkula]

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

 

 

+1

 

Agree completely. Plus probably 3 of the 4 best QB's playing right now (Brees, Favre, Brady) were all first round... Oh my bad that was JP Losman.

 

Point is ya never know.

[bills2683]

I love the idea of drafting Rolando McClain but if we were picking today at 7 or 8 thats a little too high I think. We should trade out of the top ten and pick up another pick or two and land McClain in the middle of the first round. We need all of the help we can get so I am all for trading out of the top 10 to add additional picks. We just cant reach and take another project player, we need instant impact and McClain would give us that. Also with the qb class being so deep we could take one with our early second or trade back in to the first and grab one. Lets face it though, there are so many holes on this team one pick will not get us to the playoffs. We must be a big spender in free agency but be smart with who we choose to sign. The offensive line should be fixed via free agency because another rookie tackle will only just add to the inexperienced line we have. And it all starts from the top, we need a coach and a gm.

[Got_Wood]

I know Polian states that you start with a franchise QB and build from there.

 

But I do not feel confident AT ALL with our current front office making any decisions on drafting anyone.

 

I want to see Modrak and Guy fired, and real personnel people hired. I love the Buddy Nix hire, and hope he gets a bigger say in the drafts.

 

If we hired a Bill Parcells (let me dream!), I would have complete faith in what was being done.

 

But with this front office in place, if nothing changes, then the lines (both offensive and defensive) are in serious need of repair and thus more important than taking another chance on a high round "golden" boy.

 

Couldn't agree with you more. These guys have no vision for this team. They're just throwing darts every year and hoping. It most definitely starts with a new front office and coaching staff. We can't get anywhere without a big improvement on top.

[Thoner7]

An All-American sucks?

 

Yes, he does. He is not an NFL LT. He moves his feet like they are concrete blocks. He couldnt beat out Loadholt at LT - an NFL RT - during his career. He is more of a Duke Robinson.. ie big time college name, 5th round NFL pick and career backup.

 

And aside from make the2nd Freshman All-America team in 2006, he is NOT an AA.

 

Brian Baluga is a 10x better pro tackle anyways. I hope he declares, he has Buffalo written all over him, and Okung will be gone.

[Thoner7]

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

 

Guys you named with zero chance of NFL success:

LeFevour

Robinson

 

Guys you named with many obstacles to overcome to achieve NFL success:

Snead

McCoy

Tebow

Pike

 

Others who may not declare:

Locker

Mallet

 

QBs gone by the time Bufalo Picks

Clausen

Locker (maybe depending on how season pans out)

 

 

 

Not so good anymore eh?

[Got_Wood]

Guys you named with zero chance of NFL success:

LeFevour

Robinson

 

Guys you named with many obstacles to overcome to achieve NFL success:

Snead

McCoy

Tebow

Pike

 

Others who may not declare:

Locker

Mallet

 

QBs gone by the time Bufalo Picks

Clausen

Locker (maybe depending on how season pans out)

 

 

 

Not so good anymore eh?

 

All assumptions. I could also say this:

 

Russell Okung = Mike Williams

Rolando McClain = Vernon Gholston

Gerald McCoy = Glenn Dorsey

 

Anyone can end up being a bust. But when you've got a top 10 pick, you take a shot at a potential star. You have the opportunity to snag one of the top 10 players in the entire nation coming out of college. I see quite a few QB's with that possibility.

 

Forget raw measurables. Because based on that, Jimmy Clausen is supposedly the best QB candidate. Forget his bad attitude, happy feet in the pocket, marginal leadership ability, and questionable decision making. Mel Kiper has rated him #1.

 

If I look at skill combined with work ethic, attitude, leadership ability, pedigree, and straight up ability to win... you have to look at guys like McCoy, Tebow, Bradford, Pike, Locker, Mallett, and Lefevour.

 

Supposedly Phil Rivers had terrible throwing mechanics, and Ben Roethlisberger had marginal mobility and couldn't escape the rush, and Tom Brady was unathletic, etc etc etc. You've got to put all the pieces together to make your final decision on whether or not to take a player in the draft.

 

I hope we assemble a new front office with leaders that carefully make these decisions.

[bills2683]

McClain and Gholston are completely different players...Gholston was an OLB in college and was drafted as a pass rusher off the edge for the jets 3-4. McClain plays inside and is a true mlb with playmaking ability both in the passing game and run game. He should be the pick.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Gholston was a overhyped, one-trick, pass rushing tweener from a high profile Big-10 program. A lot like another player who will remain not-so anonymous.

[Thurman#1]

I hate any and all talk about QB's being a "sure thing" coming out of college.

 

How many teams passed on Joe Montana? What round was he drafted in?

 

What about Tom Brady?

 

How many QB's were drafted in the Elway, Kelly, Marino '83 class? How many made a difference for their clubs? How many ever made a Pro-Bowl?

 

Rick Mirer? Todd Marinovich? Akili Smith? Jeff George?

 

For every Eli Manning, there are 4 Ryan Leaf's. Or Kyle Bollers. Or Alex Smith. Or JP Losman.

 

You can blame it on coaching, the much different speed of the game from college, a bad offensive line, whatever. I agree with most that the QB position is the hardest position to play in professional sports.

 

But as anyone who knows anything about scouting football players will tell you, its a crap shoot.

 

 

 

You're right. We should just give up and stay with Fitz and Trent for the next five or ten years.

 

I know that's not what you're saying, but it's where your thought leads. There are very very few sure thing QBs, if any. But you improve your odds greatly by drafting one high.

[BillsVet]

I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter.

 

Troy Smith, Jason White, Eric Crouch, Andre Ware, Danny Wuerffel, Gino Torretta, Charlie Ward, Chris Weinke, and Ty Detmer won the Heisman as well. It doesn't predict someone will have NFL success. A

 

+1

 

Agree completely. Plus probably 3 of the 4 best QB's playing right now (Brees, Favre, Brady) were all first round... Oh my bad that was JP Losman.

 

Point is ya never know.

 

Ah, exception guy. For every Tom Brady type player, there are at least 200 late round picks that never amount to anything. And while Favre and Brees are 2nd round picks, they were taken just outside the first and the vast majority of good to excellent starting QB's in the NFL are first round selections.

[BuffaloRebound]

If we are drafting in the top 5-6 picks, it better be a QB, OT, or Defensive Lineman/LB who can get after the QB. We have nothing at those positions, and they are the most important.

[RTW2012]

And aside from make the2nd Freshman All-America team in 2006, he is NOT an AA.

 

CBSSports.com and the AFCA say differently...

 

http://www.afca.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OE...TCLID=204843538

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/s...allamerica-team

[bills_red]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/ins...tory?id=4662630

 

In reviewing Oklahoma Sooners offensive tackle Trent Williams, I can't help but think of Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus is the progenitor of this series; after seeing his subpar collegiate metrics accurately translate into subpar professional metrics, I decided to start reviewing more NFL draft prospects this way.

 

Williams is much like Cherilus in that his collegiate metrics leave a lot to be desired.

 

His first and most important metric weakness is pass blocking. Left tackles get monster contracts and highly publicized motion pictures ("The Blind Side," about Michael Oher, opens Friday) because of their ability to keep pass-rushers from impacting the game via splash plays (e.g., sacks, offensive holding penalties, tipped passes, etc.).

 

A review I did in Scientific Football 2009 shows the best professional pass-blockers allow four or fewer splash plays in a season. It tiers down from there, with four to six being above average, six to 10 being below average and more than 10 ranking at or near the bottom of the league.

 

Getty Images

Trent Williams might not be signaling for a lot of first downs on Sundays.

 

The central premise of the Draft Lab series is that the top-level pro prospects should be able to post metrics against collegiate competition that are above average or better than high-end NFL players at the same position. In the five-game series I broke down on Williams (at Miami, versus Texas, at Kansas, versus Kansas State, at Nebraska), he gave up four splash plays. There were two sack plays and one offensive holding play, so three of the four splash plays were direct impacts and not simply judgement calls.

 

As bad as four splash plays in five games is, Williams was lucky that total wasn't higher. He was beaten quite badly on an inside spin move in the Nebraska game that was very nearly a hurry or sack, but a quick reaction by OU quarterback Landry Jones saved Williams from splash play No. 5.

 

That wasn't the only time Williams struggled with an inside pass-rush move. He was pushed completely off his feet with an inside shoulder club move in both the Kansas State and Nebraska games. Miami also ran 10 inside moves against Williams, which is such a high total that one has to figure the Hurricanes saw a similar inside pass-blocking weakness.

 

Those woes would be enough on their own to consider Williams overhyped, but his run blocking is actually worse than his pass blocking. Williams blocked at the point of attack on a running play 41 times and won the battle 33 times. That equates to an 80.5 percent POA win rate. To put that in perspective, an 80.5 percent POA rate in 2008 would have ranked 28th among NFL left tackles.

 

Williams' POA win rates are worse than that if the 10 plays on which he had double-team blocking help are removed. He had zero POA losses on those plays, so his POA win rate on one-on-one blocks was 74.2 percent.

 

Williams also has issues with penalties. There was the aforementioned offensive holding penalty, two false starts, a personal foul/leg whip penalty and a personal foul/late hit.

 

The late hit might show an additional weakness. It came not long after Nebraska defensive lineman Barry Turner beat Williams on a POA run block. Williams beat Turner on a run block a few plays later and wouldn't stop blocking him until well after the play was over. His extra pushing eventually led to the penalty, and it looked to my scouting eye like he was mad about having been beaten and was trying to send a message to Turner.

 

That could be a strength in that if a coach can find a way to tap into it, it might be used to his team's advantage. The problem is, though, NFL defenders know when someone reacts poorly to having his buttons pushed, and if they sense that weakness in Williams, he'll have someone trying to goad him in every game he plays.

 

The Football Scientist lab result: Had I not known before watching video of Williams that he was considered a first-round prospect in many circles, it wouldn't have occurred to me to even consider ranking him that high. He might go in the first round because he is a left tackle, but the metrics say he will be a mediocre pro player, and that stamps him with the TFS overhyped label.

[Orton's Arm]

The Football Scientist lab result: Had I not known before watching video of Williams that he was considered a first-round prospect in many circles, it wouldn't have occurred to me to even consider ranking him that high. He might go in the first round because he is a left tackle, but the metrics say he will be a mediocre pro player, and that stamps him with the TFS overhyped label.

That's one of the most convincing, analytic, and best posts I can recall having seen on these boards! You've convinced me that the Bills should not use a top 5 draft pick on an overhyped offensive tackle with a last name of Williams! (Or a first name of Trent, for that matter.)

 

Please let us know how whichever players we do pick stack up with respect to the metrics you and the associated website have identified.

[Thurman#1]

+1

 

Agree completely. Plus probably 3 of the 4 best QB's playing right now (Brees, Favre, Brady) were all first round... Oh my bad that was JP Losman.

 

Point is ya never know.

 

 

 

True. You never know. So you do your best to improve the odds. How do you do that? By drafting a QB early. That's where the odds of success are highest.

 

Far from perfect odds even if you draft #1. But much higher than anywhere else you can get a QB.

[Thurman#1]

Guys you named with zero chance of NFL success:

LeFevour

Robinson

 

Guys you named with many obstacles to overcome to achieve NFL success:

Snead

McCoy

Tebow

Pike

 

Others who may not declare:

Locker

Mallet

 

QBs gone by the time Bufalo Picks

Clausen

Locker (maybe depending on how season pans out)

 

 

 

Not so good anymore eh?

 

 

 

Two other guys who had zero percent chance of succeeding coming out of college:

 

Tony Romo and Kurt Warner.

 

Doesn't look quite so bad now, does it?

[Thurman#1]

Gholston was a overhyped, one-trick, pass rushing tweener from a high profile Big-10 program. A lot like another player who will remain not-so anonymous.

 

 

 

That's what he looks like now. At the time, he was considered a guy with a great chance of success. Hindsight is always 20:20, but Gholston was not an obvious soon-to-be-bust at the time.

[BB2004]

The Bills should draft offensive tackles with their two top picks. We'd all love a QB but there's no Matt Ryan available this year.

 

I agree with the offensive tackle as our first pick, but if the quarterback that we really want is there for us, I think we draft him, whoever that maybe. There could be a handful of really good quarterbacks coming out of the upcoming draft.

[Sisyphean Bills]

That's what he looks like now. At the time, he was considered a guy with a great chance of success. Hindsight is always 20:20, but Gholston was not an obvious soon-to-be-bust at the time.

By some, yes. Not by me.

[Red]

You're right. We should just give up and stay with Fitz and Trent for the next five or ten years.

 

I know that's not what you're saying, but it's where your thought leads. There are very very few sure thing QBs, if any. But you improve your odds greatly by drafting one high.

 

Baloney.

 

Or even better, Mularkey!

[Thurman#1]

Baloney.

 

Or even better, Mularkey!

 

 

 

Hunh? Are you saying that you DON'T improve your odds of success by drafting a QB early? Because that's a statistical fact. You do improve the odds by drafting early.