finn

Can hardly blame him for taking off with Spencer Brown as his bodyguard. That aside, I would imagine quitting a clean pocket wouldn't count toward escapability. I'd like to see if there's a correlation between QB mobility--evidenced by rushing yards, for instance--and sacks allowed. I believe Baltimore and Buffalo are #1 and 2 in sacks allowed, so there might be a connection.

Most NFL pundits just repeat conventional wisdom, which is fine for a fan board like this but pretty appalling when you're being paid for your insights. "One thing for sure: No one wants to see the Bills in the playoffs." How many times have you read that in recent weeks? Or the literally inevitable "turnover" caveat to any praise for Allen? I just hope the MVP voters aren't so lazy or sheep-like.

I don't think Allen is playing with a poor offense, but I don't think it's anything special compared to other teams in the top half of the league. Take the O-line. One of the reasons we all take PFF grades with a grain of salt is that they don't take into account all relevant factors, such as the QB's escability. What percentage of pass drops do we see Allen dodge missed blocks instead of taking a sack? It's so normal, we don't even notice anymore. Drop back, dodge a whiffed block, throw. Rinse and repeat. Put any but a small handful of other QBs back there and watch the PFF grades plummet. I grant you that Cook is a real weapon, but Murray, Ty Johnson, Davis, Shakir, Knox, Sherfield, and Harty are all no more than above average. Diggs is the only "A" player besides Allen. Kincaid? A nice player with excellent potential. So, yeah, I would say Allen deserves MVP because he does more with less than any of his competitors. Put it this way: Allen would do better than Mahomes if Allen played in KC, better than Lamar in Baltimore, Burrow in Cincinnati, Purdy in SF, Hurts in Philly, Prescott in Dallas, and certainly Tua in Miami. Flip it around and the opposite is true: None of these QBs would do as well as Allen has with the Buffalo roster.

Brown needs all the practice he can get. I keep hearing how he's doing well this year, but every time I see him, he's whiffing on a block. In fact, I'd love to see a clip of him NOT whiffing on a block he has to hold for more than a beat or two. E.g., look at that terrific pass Allen made to Shakir to ice the Chargers game. Yes, it was a blitz, but you want your linemen to pick up someone, and Brown whiffs completely. Earlier in the game, he got called for tripping because he was so badly deked he fell on the ground and from there deliberately tripped his man, negating a terrific Allen throw. He gets beaten by power, quickness, AND speed. Please persuade me that his pass pro is not putrid (without resorting to PFF ratings, if possible.) I will feel much better reassured that he will not single-handedly doom the Bills' chances from here on.

Luck and losses, to be precise. To the extent that Allen has momentum for MVP now, it's largely due that the Bills' winning streak. Recency bias is powerful among fans and the media. That said, the opening-day loss to the Jets was almost entirely on Allen, and it's fair to hold that performance against him. As many posters have said, Allen is the slam-dunk MVP if you look at the facts objectively. He's done more with less than any other player in the league, by a wide margin. The turnover narrative is flat-out bias. Comparing Allen and Lamar, in what world do five more turnovers outweigh SIXTEEN more TDs?

This take makes perfect sense. For that reason, I think the Bills will win in a blowout. With few exceptions, they've confounded conventional wisdom all year, losing to NE, Denver, the Jags and Jets, narrowly beating a lousy Chargers team, and beating good teams (including the Eagles in principle, who were bailed out by the refs, in a pattern that is starting to disgust many fans). No, they'll either lose or win in a blowout.

In what games have you seen him double teamed? I've only seen him blocked--easily--by a tackle. Typically, Miller goes wide, and the tackle steers him away from the play. For example, watch him in this All-22 review of Oliver's performance against the Chargers. No double teams, no impact other than occupying a single blocker, which the water boy could have done. I haven't seen his every play, but the Athletic All-22 review of the Chargers game out today confirms my impression that Miller was a non-factor. Says Jonathan and Settle made more impact with far fewer snaps. Something else like what? I don't follow.

Good point. Another difference, this one negative, is that they have Von Miller back. Take a look at the all-22 review of Ed Oliver's play at Buffalo Rumblings. Oliver is terrific, but I wondered who was the defensive end who didn't seem to be even trying. It's Von Miller. He seems content to be steered out of the play every time and be a spectator to Ed Oliver's disruptive mayhem. I'm sure that's not the case, but he sure isn't doing much. Might be best to deactivate him and put a productive player on the field.

Right. Allen as QB with Belichick's current roster would be a Super Bowl contender. For a four-win team, that's quite a statement about Allen.

To think we passed on Roger Saffold. 😛

In retrospect, it's not surprising the Chargers game was as close as it was. The Chargers had an extra-long week after the humiliating loss the week before to come together as a team for a coach they admire. Meanwhile, the Bills had a short week and had to fly across country. Put that all together, and it's not surprising they were a bit flat. Even so, the three turnovers could have happened in any game (I thought), and the holding penalties against Morse were hallucinations. I would say the weak points were run blocking, Spencer Brown's pass blocking (to be fair, it's hard to block when you're lying on the ground), and the pass rush. Stick had all the time any QB could want, especially when Von Miller was out there.

Tough to do, but the right move might be to put Von on injured reserve and hope he has something next year. (That's if they can plausibly claim he's injured, of course.) I'd give him one more game to show something, no more.

He's activated for the 53-man roster, right, not necessarily active for the NE game?

He's good, but he's a turnover machine. 😄

Don't forget Spencer Brown's idiotic and cheap tripping penalty he committed lying on the turf after being beat badly, again, by his man. Those 15 yards, followed up by a phantom holding call against Morse, killed a promising drive, "promising" because Allen completed two long passes for first downs before the penalties. Spencer Brown, the gift that keeps giving.

Doesn't really work like that or else every QB would do rush for TDs themselves instead of handing the ball off. It takes a rare talent--a Hurts, Allen, Lamar, etc.--to score that many TDs on the ground, creating a dual threat that teams have to account for. If anything, QB rush TDs should be valued MORE than pass TDs.

In one more game than Lamar, to be fair. But Allen could easily surpass Lamar's yards and total TDs with just the NE game (16 games).

You know what Allen would say.

Right, maybe that's all we can do. Given the context we're discussing, it's most accurate and fair to say that the two appear to be of the same caliber, and that the discrepancy in stats may or may not be due to the quality of their respective teams. But that's a mouthful and way too nuanced for most fans and commentators, who prefer simple answers to complex questions. So until further notice, Mahomes remains the Messiah and Allen the turnover machine. Whatever.

I meant what am I missing given that Mahomes played most of those years with two future HOF receivers in Kelsey and Hill and behind one of the best lines in football. Mahomes is special, no doubt, but I'm less impressed than you when I look at his teammates. By contrast, Allen has to dodge at least one rusher on virtually every pass drop, and besides Diggs, he's been throwing to a bunch of scrubs his whole career. A simple thought experiment: Put Allen behind the KC line all these years and throwing to the KC receivers. And have Mahomes behind Spencer Brown and Roger Saffold and throwing to the Bills receivers. Be honest and objective: Do you really think Mahomes would still come out ahead?

Why do you think he's the best QB? I'm honestly interested. Is it mostly the MVPs and Super Bowls? Because otherwise, I don't see how he's any better than Allen, even with better weapons and better protection over his career. Only now is he playing on an offense of the caliber Allen has had all these years, and the results speak for themselves. What am I missing?

I'd rather the waterboy getting reps at end, the way he looks.

I'd like to see his run-blocking grades next to his pass pro. My guess is that they're night and day (and so average overall).

Rename the prize "Most indispensable player," and Allen would win in a landslide. Purdy is good. Allen is great.

Brown also blew the block on a blitzing linebacker late in the game. That's when Allen threw off his back foot to Shakir for the apparent touchdown. The conventional wisdom, based in part on PFF grades, is that Brown is "much improved." But watch him on the highlights, this or any other game. He routinely whiffs. Routinely, as in pretty much every pass pro where he has to, you know, block. "Allen goes back, dodges a [Brown] pass rusher, gets the throw off." Sound familiar?