BillsVet

It's not just the catch rate, it's the (lack of) targets. Buffalo had 551 attempts in 2022, 154 of which went to Diggs which is understandable. But on the ~400 other targets, Davis had less than a quarter of those on a team with a decent but not exceptional option at TE and little at the slot WR. I have to believe that after that KC game, McBeane and their All-Star Personnel Team assumed Davis would start catching more passes and getting open more jumping from WR3 to WR2. Or, they wanted to believe in their assessment of Davis because they wanted more defense. People care about firing Frazier, but those doing the self-scouting of their own players at OBD and/or prioritizing positional needs really need to be examined. Especially on offense where they continually fail to invest and, when they do, the results are underwhelming. Too many misses at the skill positions.

Interesting to see how Cincy handles this for a player who performed at a position of value, albeit a WR2. Buffalo avoided this through extensions on all of their 2017-19 draftees who were average or better players and would have come up for a new deal (Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, T. Johnson, Knox). The lone exception until this off-season was Harrison Phillips. Closest comp was when Milano's deal expired, he hit UFA and came back on a sizable contract for the position. Now they're facing the tough decisions most teams have trying to sustain a winning team and that's harder than building a roster from the ground up.

I'm not sure what the problem is Bill, the passing game is how you win...defending it that is. Another safety is possible even if it's not the first round, could definitely see a 2nd pick because McBeane loves to go need with that pick.

The only guarantees in life are death and taxes. Not 1st round MLBs. Sorry.

How many game changing MLB's haven't forced a fumble in their last 77 regular and post-season games on ~4,100 snaps played?

He's had chances to adapt, particularly with Josh's ascendance into a franchise QB and did not. Perhaps he has an epiphany this off-season, but I doubt it. It's surprising how 6 years into the McD regime the offense features misaligned personnel or they avoid investing in certain areas. Or, how they continue doubling down on defense in spite of how the league rules emphasize offensive production.

Certainly. But you can't just blame the Safeties coach and use the injuries as a reason they weren't better defensively. Something's gotta give there. And hey, maybe it's to finally become a more scheme diverse unit and the incoming guy is better suited to that.

It's strange that McD would toss aside an assistant who's been serving in the NFL under the HC for 6 seasons, was in year 1 as safeties coach and had been promoted twice before his latest role. But let's say it's more related to scheme diversity...that still points to this not being a focus for a few years and the HC shares in that. It shouldn't take 5+ seasons to understand that modern offenses going up against specific alignments in coverage are going to figure them out. Seems more like throwing a deck chair off the Titanic after their drubbing versus Cincinnati.

Is that why they're 21M over the cap 4 years after finally clearing, according to their view, the dead cap from the previous regime?

It's a good question...that's been asked for more than a year, but now receives scrutiny because it has not worked in crucial moments. You can spend on on a DL, but there's got to be give somewhere else. For 2023 (and it's early), Buffalo is 8th in defensive spending, but only one of the teams ahead have a major QB contract (GB) and they're not a model of efficiency. The time to assess scheme value and positional priorities was last off-season before Josh's extension hit their books. But they didn't and signed 4 UFA DL (not including Von) within the first week of UFA last March. Ironically, it was the last one of that group, D. Jones, who was their best. What is clear is that overall spending on defense, draft and UFA dollars, is impeding their offense more than many here could see until the Cincinnati game. Each of the final 4 teams had several top-end offensive skill players, but Buffalo did not. Good to see the conversation around DL and defense in general, but it's a day late and a dollar short. Now McBeane have themselves in a hole they created looking up at another AFC team built more solidly in less time than theirs.

All GMs make mistakes, but some make more and then get fired. Others achieve moderate results and eventually get fired. A select few, typically those who draft a true franchise QB, win championships and stay on. Then again, it takes ownership to be invested just enough. The Pegula's have given McBeane everything they've asked for it appears...and at some point they'll tire of excuses and bad playoff results with a 258M investment on the payroll.

I've have not observed enough to indicate OBD A) values offense compared to their major AFC competitors B) identifies and acquires talent in the draft and UFA that C) fits an aligned scheme which can succeed in the modern NFL. This off-season has to be a tremendous departure from previous years when they found a reason not to improve their offense around Josh. It certainly could happen, but it should not have taken this playoff loss to reveal this gap.

A mid-season swoon each of the past few years makes me wonder if what you say here is already happening. I gave McD credit for how he handled the Damar Hamlin situation, but how they've fared these last 2 playoffs and maybe even the HOU WC loss were not good looks for the HC or his DC. Agree that some things are going stale and need to be refreshed.

It's funny that when the 2022 league year commenced, Buffalo out of the gate signed Saffold, OJ Howard, re-signed McKenzie, and then Duke Johnson in the first week of free agency. It's now 4 of McD's 6 off-seasons the defense got significant (either talent or pay-wise) upgrades, while the offense got little. Even 2021, they, notably speaking, re-signed Daryl Williams, re-signed McKenzie, then added Matt Breida in the opening 2 weeks of UFA. Not surprising they can't keep pace offensively with Cincinnati and Kansas City...apparently off-season review does not require continuously improving the offense.

Yeah, everyone and their mother knows the OL needs upgrades, but let's not go back to 2009 by using top draft picks for centers and guards because there was a glaring interior line issue. Use more efficient means to address IOL, focus on the priority positions, and don't waste high picks just to fill a need.

More like Private Snuffy for losing his weapon...as the senior officers lose battles and wars.

It's not merely an exit, it's a debilitating loss to a team that was dead last in the NFL in 2019 and went to the SB last year. They've lapped Buffalo. Yes, some are calling for heads to roll, but others have wisely observed that much of this loss occurred in the off-season. Targeting players who could not execute has been an issue, particularly in UFA, for multiple off-seasons now. The frustration is not just over the loss, but that McBeane's plan has finally been revealed as inherently flawed. You can't keep preaching process and then have a season end like that without some fall out. The answers will not be easy, but they've escaped from making substantial changes to stick to that plan. Those days are over after the past 2 playoff losses.

They also have a QB whose cap hit is under 2M this year. It's doable to feature an expensive DL rotation, but not if you're paying the QB and skill players. Buffalo can run the DL rotation because they skimp on skill players.

Resources in the draft and UFA have been devoted for several seasons now on the DL. Lots of money spent there overseen by the HC. As to the run defense, it began unraveling mid-season when they had everyone good in the front 7: Game 7 vs. GB: 208 yards on 31 carries Game 8 at NYJ: 174 yards on 34 carries Game 9 vs. MIN: 147 yards on 25 carries Game 14 vs MIA: 188 yards on 25 carries Something is amiss in how they run this scheme, which is irksome considering how much they invest there and supposed depth. Many teams may run that scheme, but it doesn't require a 8-9 man DL rotation like McD's does.

Yeah...the Cincinnati loss and a less than ideal end to the season the last 2 years happens when your off-season reviews are flawed. Which leads to bad personnel priorities and decisions. Spending big on UFA and some extensions covered up that they weren't drafting and developing enough of their own players who could provide solid play at lower cost. Players who could step in to give them room. It's why the talk of extending Edmunds is pure madness at 10M+ season with protection and WR depth issues.

He's not gonna give away the classified details...because their off-season review just begun. He's doing a lot in these PC's...sending subtle messages to players/agents, trying to assuage the fans, show disappointment without begin negative. It's theater in a way. But there is serious concern as evidenced upthread that the Cincinnati loss wasn't just a 1 game issue and saying an injury or two was the culprit is absurd. McBeane have responded to the last 2 off-season with a run it back approach. Yet, their last 3 of the last 4 departures from the playoffs were real head-scratchers.

If that's the response after a disappointing end in the playoffs, then Terry ain't pushing them hard. His mind is, understandably in some regard, occupied elsewhere. Going back to McD's hire...he was given authority over football ops and that's the way it's remains. His grip on what this team does in personnel, scheme, and everything in-between remains iron-clad. Ownership won't push him to do anything. But, Beane's stood up there and done the subterfuge dance before. Signed Miller out of nowhere. We'll see.

I'd really like to see the term, "hater" applied to people who highlight easily anticipated problems to die. Permanently. It's a clown term to separate fans into 1 of 2 camps and there's no way to make it a binary issue, i.e. pro or anti-team. Perhaps you're using it somewhat casually, but it's hard to discern intent on a message board. Aside from that, good post.

Ownership just invested 258M in their franchise QB. Focusing the offense on handing off to a 1-2M/year RB doesn't make much sense. Then again, McBeane was trying to build a mauling-type OL this year.

After last off-season, if the owners were engaged, I wondered if they might ask McCoach how he was protecting their quarter-billion investment in Josh Allen. Sadly, I don't think they're engaged given Kim's health and second, because the money is flowing. Seeing Josh plunge into the line and take off running like he did down the stretch tell me no one is pushing them on what should be a significant concern.