Koufax

I didn't see the game and don't know the specifics of this series, but every time in my personal experience I have tried to point out "extra down" stuff (which I have done) I am usually corrected on a nuance, rule, or circumstance that I didn't realize.

I'd like to see an upgrade at #2 WR, but WR as a bigger need than O-Line seriously overvalues Preston, Gandy, and Pennington.

I think with McCargo our DT needs are still there, but not as glaring a hole as it feels like each time the Texans run for 200 (At least we didn't get Jax-Indy'd). On the line, I haven't seen enough of Pennington to really know, but Duke seems like he is the weak link. Gandy needs to show he can be a solid veteran, but I'm certainly going to want to look at every LG option too. Pennington is a keep-your-fingers-crossed guy for me now. Seems to do alright in pass protection, and having Preston as his wingman explains some of the run-right difficulties, but I haven't seen him closely enough to really know. It would be great if he developed to exceed expecations (like Peters, but he doesn't have to get that good ). On the Kelsey stuff, I don't know exactly what money makes sense, but I also really like Hargrove, so don't want to overspend at that position.

There are many injuries where year 1 back you have no shot of being 100%, but year 2+ you are fully recovered. This is very common with pitcher's shoulders in baseball. I imagine there is something similar at work with TKO, that the generic recovery from the surgery in time for camp didn't get him back to 100% on the Achilles, and also completely got in the way of his normal off season work. Then the hamstring injury got in the way further. I'm excited to see him playing better in recent weeks. I think medically he could go either way - recover fully or never be the same player, but if I had to put my money down, I think that he will recover fully by training camp, and physically be the player he was, and have fewer miles on his odometer than his age suggests due to the forced time off (not talking about the injured area obviously, but all the wear and tear a linebacker takes play after play over the years). Crowell is young, talented, and on the upswing. Ellison is encouraging, but I don't know if he will be a role player or can be an impact player yet. Fletcher has his share of tackles nine yards downfield, but I still think he is a tremendous player, and has the type of durable body that will age well. I would like to see a young linebacker added if there is a good player available (perhaps more raw talent with a lower pick who can develop slowly), but don't see the position as a crucial need. I also think that McCargo coming back and hopefully having gained some knowledge in the first year is a big addition, and our DT need is someone to push Kyle down to 4th in the rotation (and Anderson out), and compete with McCargo and Larry for the 3rd spot. I want an impact RG more than anything that can get Preston back into a solid backup role, and after that it is a tossup between replacing the solid but unspectacular veteran Gandy, or the potential but raw rookie Pennington. I'd love if both surprise and do very well, and Preston is the only starter replaced, but we might be best off replacing the second weakest link as well. Our cap money isn't going to be as much as it seems because lots of other teams are going to have it too, so it is an inflationary environment. I'd really like to see Nate back, and I'd like to look at some TE/WR options that could improve us as well. The single biggest thing I see is that other than getting an impact RG (I would say DT if McCargo weren't coming back), we can evaluate the draft and free agents, and not be forced to reach or overspend for a glaring need. Our team has shown itself to be more balanced than it had seemed, and that is a great position to be in to make the most advantageous off season decisions.

The Weinke comparison is a good one, as are any of the big passing losing effort games that happen week in week out. I think an even better comparison is to his first game against the Jets this year when he went for 309 and we lost. People play too much fantasy football these days to accurately judge a performance sometimes. JP was on, and if a couple of the drops had been caught it would have been even more impressive, and if Nate hadn't taken that INT to the house or if the Jets had managed to stop Willis, JP would have thrown more. But anytime he can have a game like that in a 31 point performance I will sign on the dotted line.

I'm just glad these threads are still alive. I think it is a tough road, but it was a tough road with four weeks of stuff to happen, and now it is a tough road with just three weeks of stuff to happen. My goal right now is to have these hopes last another week, and then we can take it from there. I big win against the Fish, and a couple of these things going our way and we can talk more about this next week!

With Larry, McCargo, and Williams, what we are looking for is someone to take Anderson's spot in the four man rotation. That's not hard to upgrade, but it would be nice to get someone to not just drop into the 4th best spot, but at least take #3, and push McCargo and Larry for the top spots. That said, I think that with McCargo coming back, and both him and Kyle having a full year learning and working on strength and stuff, this is not as big a weakness as people think, and O-Line still comes first with three positions leading the way (RG, LG, RT), and whichever of those is our best option to improve should be our top priority (not necessarily our #1 pick).

Wow. Sorry to see both Dante and Terrence completely inactive. Let's go Ashton.

One team that will not be competing with us and Indy for the run stuffers: Minnesota. I has talked about their failures despite stopping the run, but this is pretty amazing. Probably the best run D ever for a 5-7 team, giving up -2 yards into the 3rd quarter to the Lions, and trailing big the Lions will probably mostly pass. So we could be looking at Jags 400 rushing yards, Lions -2? That would be a funny day of extremes.

And the Bills beat the Jags! I tell you, we are not as far from being a good football team as people think. Getting a year under all our young players' belts, getting Youboty and McCargo plus a free agent class (hopefully we keep Nate, but otherwise more money to spend), a draft class, and I expect a better TKO, with very few players we worry about losing or going over the hill, all adds up to a 2007 playoff run, and a team that should be better in 2008. If we can keep things on track we have a very solid window to be a winning team. And 282 yards and counting for the Jags. I generally like the Colts, but I want to see how far this can go. I imagine the second half will be all Peyton passing and the Jags running, since that's what a big lead usually means, so there is lots of room for plenty more.

Not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that as the cap rises some small market teams may stay under the cap, and it wouldn't surprise me if depending on the specifics Marv doesn't spend every possible penny of Ralph's money that the league allows (just like we spend less than some other teams on coaching staff). As I said, I hope this is not the case, because I want to see the best team on the field we can have, including re-signing Nate in what will clearly be an inflationary and expensive market.

Yeah, I'm going to go with the ref standing directly under the goalpost looking straight up, instead of deceiving two-dimensional TV angles, although it looked wide to me anyway.

I have said many times before, but will say here in agreement with Tolstoy and others: 50 shares of a winning experience in a game (or maybe 35 for the guys coming back the next season) are worth more than the one or two spots on the draft slot a loss gets you. The only exception to this might be a week 15 or 16 game by a team picking in the top 4 in an imbalanced group (the difference between Julius Peppers and Mike Williams, or Petyon Manning and Ryan Leaf), and even then I have my doubts whether it is instead a crap shoot. Winning is a really valuable experience for all players and teams, especially young teams. Moving from 13 to 9 in a draft has a small, uncertain, and somewhat random effect on a team. I'll take the winning every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

I definitely agree he needs time and not being on the field does not indicate any failure as a pick. If we get Nate back he has even more time to develop, but I don't think he needs to have training wheels, and I would like to see him play in games this year, not so I can judge him as a success or bust, but so he can speed up his learning. Acknowledging his particular situation, at the same age from the same school at the same position, Nate played 16 games as a rookie (for a team coming off a 8-8 season and dropping to 3-13, so not a perfect blueprint) and had 53 tackles, a sack, and three picks. I'm not saying Ashton needs to accomplish that, but DB is not the QB position and does not require years of grooming. Also, even if the team can't focus on him catching up at the expense of others, you certainly hope and expect that he has been able to make a great deal of progress understanding the system since he has been back with the team. So again, in full support of Ashton and with full patience (because I want him to help us win a Super Bowl in the next five years a lot more than I care about him contributing this season), I think it is reasonable to expect that he has had some time to study and practice and close the knowledge gap with KT somewhat, allowing his physical talent advantages to cover some more of the gap. I would really like him to get on the field in the next four weeks for his own development, and so we can all say "wow, this kid has skills" and get excited. If we re-sign Nate and have Nate and Ashton at CB, with McGee as nickel (and returns obviously) and KT as a backup, and have Dante and Ko at safeties, I think that is the kind of secondary that can be a key piece of returning to the playoffs and winning a Super Bowl, and other than expensive veteran Nate is a tremendously young and cheap secondary as well. Go Bills!

We are effectively working without a cap, since Ralph will probably keep us under it anyway. When the speed limit is raised to 150mph it impacts the Ferrari Redskins, but not the Taurus Bills. I certainly hope I'm wrong and they make the numbers work revenue wise to be at the cap and be the best football team we are allowed to be.

Clarification: I'm a big Youboty fan, and think he will be fine and a future starter. The point I was making is that he has not been able to move ahead of KT on the depth chart right now. I think he will definitely pass him by the 2007 season, but I had hopes that his physical talents would be able to overcome his missed time to start his rookie year. Possibilities: 2006 KT > 2006AY due to circumstance (rookie/missing time). or 2006 AY > 2006 KT, but DJ either has made a mistake in evaluating this, or does not want to rock the boat while playoff hopes are alive. Either way I would love if we can find a way to get Ashton on the field (hopefully in a blowout we are winning?) in 2007, both for his development and experience, and so that he can be better evaluated. I definitely want to re-sign Nate, but if KT is a good nickel, and Ashton can step in as a starting corner, it gives us a backup plan. I find that backup plan scarier if Ashton finishes the year without playing a down.