Koufax

Yeah, I want to see the Bills win at Baltimore independently of any of this stuff as I said in the original post. I'm talking about what else happens other than the Bills game, but that's mostly the sad leftover energy after worrying about the tie breaker with Cincinnati. So to be clear, I'm not talking about advantages of losing in Baltimore, and hope we win that game. I'm talking about other outcomes that could affect where we pick, since 8 to 24 is a pretty big difference, and we can keep an eye on unrelated games to see how things will work out. Of course you can wait until next week, or wait until the day of the draft, but I'm going to start thinking about the 2007 Bills a little more now that we have been eliminated.

I was hoping to be waiting a while before even caring about this, but... Let me be clear. I am NOT rooting for the Bills to lose to Baltimore, even though I think that will be a tough game against one of the best teams in football on the road playing for a bye. If it comes down to a last second play for the Bills to win or lose I won't have the slightest "damn, this kick is going to cost us x spots in the draft", because a team win is worth more than any draft positioning. But we are going to finish 8-8 or more likely 7-9, and with the tight bunching in the middle (especially the NFC) that could mean a big range for our pick. Teams with 9+ wins who we are ahead of in the draft: #21-32: NE, DEN, SD, IND, BAL, DAL, CHI, NO, NYJ, PHI, SEA, KC #14-20 TEN 8-8 JAX 8-8 CIN 8-8 PIT 8-8 NYG 8-8 CAR 8-8 Stl 8-8 #11-13 GB 7-8 (@CHI) Atl 7-8 (@PHI) BUF 7-9 #9-10 MIA 6-9 (@IND) SF 6-9 (@ DEN) Teams with 10+ losses who the Bills are definitely behind in the draft #1-8: DET, TB, ARI, WSH, OAK, HOU, CLE, MIN Edit: Updates and overhaul Edit: PIT win, KC win, TEN loss, Bills Loss

I've listened to every JP press conference all year. The kid has heart and will be a very good QB. I'm excited to see the progress in the second half this season, and it is going to be fun to go into the off season having that position locked up.

That was my least favorite play of the game. Definite run situation. If Fowler isn't the guy to push for a sneak then line up in I and power it. But that is yard you have to get on the ground.

Yeah, dog the guy who goes 5 for 5 plus two extra points. That would have been a very tough field goal. I wanted them to go for it, but I have a bigger problem with not running on 2nd and 6 and 3rd and 6. I agree that there might be some advantage to a guy who thinks he can make every kick and wants to kick it from 60, but I'll take Rian with the game on the line.

Hey chicken little, the sky isn't falling. Tough loss today, which prevents us from getting our hopes crushed next week (Baltimore at home with a win meaning a bye was not going to be an easy win). This year's team was not a playoff team and was not supposed to make the playoffs. I'm very excited they stepped up and played quality football in the second half to make the season fun and give these guys a taste of playing with the season on the line which will carry for next year. 1) Don't ditch the cover-2. Dick knows more than we do, it isn't the scheme but the execution of it, and we will be better next year. 2) O-Line is still our biggest need, and I would love to see two new high level guards, but that might be easier said than done, so at least one. 3) D-Line did not play very well this season, but Kyle will be better as the #4, McCargo will be back as one of the top 3, and Larry is fine as one of the top 3. I would like to add one to be in the top three in the rotation, which can be the #1 or the #3 depending on what's available and where our best value is. 4) DJ did not have a perfect season, and I was one of the first to rip him today when we should have run the ball (3rd and 1 in the second quarter, and three straight plays if needed on the last series after 2nd and 4. But he gets his players to play for him, is teaching a very young team a new system, and had better than expected results. He is not without fault, and not in the Bellichick elite, but is a solid coach who I hope sticks around for a long time. 5) There is nothing "typical" or lack of "magic at the ralph" about this. It was football, and we got beaten by a very hot team playing some bad D. 6) The 2007 Bills will be a playoff contender from the start, which this team was not. Hopefully we aren't counting tie breaker scenarios with two weeks to play, but are talking playoff seeding.

Tough loss, we still weren't going to make the playoffs (Baltimore playing at home with a bye on the line) and I'm still excited about 2007. But that was DJ's most costly playcalling all year. He gave that game away, and I hope he steps up and admits it. Not running on the 3rd and 1 earlier set up the VY touchdown, but the final drive made me want to cry. 2nd and 6 after a big willis run. That is run, run, and first down or FG attempt. Instead it was a numbing pass, pass, pass. Absolutely rediculous. Everybody has bad games, but Dick has to admit this one and be blasted for it. That way we can forgive and forget, thank him for a great overall job on the year, and move on to 2007. Let's now root for the 7-9 teams to win to improve draft position (I still want to beat the Ravens, but I want the other teams to have favorable results separately from our game).

Still offline. Hopefully just a matter of minutes and not somebody off at a Christmas party instead of streaming for us...

Right now the biggest thing is to make week 17 mean something. What scenario plays out, what other teams do, what tie breakers play out, and whether we can stun a very good Baltimore team is secondary both chronologically (we play week 16 first) and in terms of priority. There is a big difference between each of the three scenarios: eliminated this week, eliminated next week, and playoffs, and it seems pretty likely we can move past the first of those options get a chance to play meaningful football down to the last play of the season whether next Sunday in Baltimore or next month in Miami. And that is very different for this young team than it was for the team that lost to Pittsburgh's backups a few years ago. This team is on the upswing and playoff contention is coming ahead of schedule which will really boost this team in 2007 whether they make it or not.

We want KC to win because they need to win both of their remaining games for us to finish ahead of a 9-7 Denver, and because Cincinnati beat Oakland, so an Oakland win strengthens the Strength-Of-Victory tie breaker that will be used if Cincinnati and Buffalo are both 9-7. 20-9 KC in the 4th...Go Chiefs! Edit: KC wins...another item checked off the Bills playoff checklist

Go Chiefs! (Sorry for those of you without the NFL Network, but it probably isn't going to be the greatest game, but just another check in our playoff dreams checklist). Whether we can actually beat Baltimore next week and everything else goes right is very much up in the air, but giving this team a week 17 game that matters is a great Christmas gift for any Bills fan, and a big step toward this team maturing into a Super Bowl contender over the next couple years.

Just to add some math to the puzzle to figure this out, assuming the BUF, NE, MIA, and DEN wins this weekend... Right now Buffalo's 9 victories add up to 62 SOW wins on the books. We have assumed in the best case scenario for this weekend that Miami wins, so we are to 64, and GB plays min so we are to 65. If Miami wins and we win out, the lowest our SOW could possibly be is 65 if everything else went as wrong as possible. Right now Cincinnati could conceivably make it to 69 wins since they have to beat Pit for this to happen (Pit beating Bal since they have two Pit wins on their 9-7). They have 57 in the bank right now, but since they have Bal v Pit, and Oak v KC and NO v CAR on their schedule the lowest they could mathematically have is 60 So far based on the above, they could still win this tie breaker as much as 69-65. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh this drops to 68-66 worst case scenario for the Bills. And we are talking about a bunch of games which would have to go in their favor for this to happen: So Cincinnati can be from 60 to 69, and Buffalo will be at least 65 before anything else goes our way. This could easily be wrapped up this weekend allowing us to control our own fate, but is still not a certainty. We should be rooting for Baltimore, Atlanta, NYG, and Tampa Bay this weekend to help make this probably a definitely heading into the final week.

7-9 or 9-7 this is a successful season. The team has grown a lot, learned a lot about itself, and is poised for a productive off season and a good 2007. So whether they have two bad Sundays or make the playoffs, it is the same team here, with a lot of good things going, but still some holes and some youth. But that said, there is a huge difference to the development of the team left in these final weeks. Playing down to the last minute of the last game in Baltimore or of making the miracle run to the playoffs has its own value and will improve how this team is able to compete in 2007. So yes, a success, but these last 8 quarters (or playoffs if they happen) will have an impact by the taste it leaves in everyone's mouth and the confidence levels it will inspire in the players.

I think Rivers and Cutler (the other QB discussion topic) are going to be excellent quarterbacks, but I am very happy to have JP, and think he might end up being the best of the bunch, but even if he isn't, he is going to be a good quarterback and we can start focusing on right guard, etc. and building a super bowl winner. But did you say 63.4%? You must be mistaken. This is inaccurate 49% Losman we are talking about who could never throw that accurately. There must be some misprint in the stats and it has nothing to do with the typical progression of developing quarterbacks who turn into stars. Go Bills! Six more wins until we are Super Bowl champs! (okay, I'll take one more win and we can play no meaningless games all year)

Remember that guy with the radio show where he said "Yeah, things are pretty good. We should stay the course and keep on chugging. That's all I've got today, please tune in next week." ? No, because it doesn't happen. The primary goal of talk radio is to get people talking and stir the pot to get people calling in, interested, wanting to agree/disagree. I think talk radio is fun entertainment, but rarely informative or particularly intelligent and insightful.

There are many ways to insult the Fish without using intolerant phrases like that, but I agree with the general sentiment. I'm going to be rooting against the Jets more than for the Dolphins, since it is impossible to put on an orange and teal sweatshirt and pretend to actually like Miami.

Only if what we by having Nate instead of Ashton - McGee is worth more than what else we could get for that money. Spending "whatever it takes" because "we gotta keep him" (not your words, just a general sentiment) is something Marv is smart enough to avoid, and make each decision based on pros and cons. Because Nate is better than Ashton and McGee and KT (also a free agent) he adds value to our team. But he adds value based on how much better than Ashton/McGee he is since both of those players are signed and one sits if Nate is back. I don't think the value of that difference is worth as much as 50 mil would get us as a guard upgrade over Preston or Gandy, or what 25 mil each would get us at two upgraded positions, etc. Spend smart, draft smart, and play hard and smart. I'd love to have Nate back if it works, and think we should make a pretty big offer to try to keep him. But I think it is very likey that Dan Snyder will offer Nate more than he is WORTH to the Bills. In that case thank him for his service and move on to building a Super Bowl winner without him.

Sorry if it has been mentioned elsewhere, but who has the Ravens-Colts and Ravens-Pats tiebreakers? Is there also a chance that the Ravens could have #3 certain going into the final week? (Pats lose, Ravens lose, Colts win, 10-5,11-4,12-3, if Baltimore were to have tiebreaker with Pats and not with Colts this would lock in #3). I seem to see in the scenario above Baltimore winning the tie breaker with New England based on conference record, and I show Indy beating Baltimore based on common opponents (since at best Baltimore could tie conference record in week 17): Indy: TEN W, DEN W, BUF W, TEN L, CIN W, 4-1 .800 Bal: DEN L, CIN W, TEN W, CIN L, BUF, 3-2 or 2-3 So if Baltimore and New England lose, and Indy and San Diego win, Baltimore would have the #3 seed locked up. That means that they would want to rest people against the Bills, and also means if the Bills win the Bills would go back and play them again in the playoffs. Interesting stuff. I don't worry too much about whether the Ravens will need the win or not, so the Baltimore assured of #4 outlined earlier or the assured of #3 I'm trying to show here doesn't make a huge difference, but it is interesting to play around with. Still, just beat the Titans, and then root against the Jets (since it would be too hard to root for the Fish), and things could line up pretty well.

Depends if you are going Vegas or common sense. I have the Pats as a common sense favorite over the Jags as a better team playing better football in a non-hostile road venue. The 50/50 is definitely not counting the Bills winning. I'm definitely going to be rooting for them, but smart cash is not on the Bills beating Baltimore in Baltimore in a game that will likely matter to Baltimore. The Bills are definitely the favorite against Tennessee (maybe 60%) and definitely the underdog at Baltimore (maybe 30% if Baltimore if the game matters to Baltimore). But the 50/50 on winning out getting the Bills into the playoffs sounds about right and is a pretty exciting thing.

I don't think that is certain, but appears very likely. It comes down to the strength of victory tie breaker which is complicated and changes based on the wins and losses in the next two weeks of each team the Bengals or Bills beat all year. Go Indy!

Interesting observations about the O-Line. Preston needs to head back to the bench with a good RG, and Gandy is very much on the bubble and I'd love to find an improvement at LG and let Gandy go. I agree that we can't overvalue our talent because it got reshuffled, and think our guard play is weaker than people realize, and Pennington is still a work in progress (but warrants a 2007 starting job). So Right Guard is my top priority. CB if Nate goes, DT, LG are all positions to improve on. Having McCargo as a DT and Youboty as a CB, and a potentially passable Gandy at LG prevents us from having to force these "have to take a DT in the first round even if it is Bunkley, have to take a Tackle in the first round even if it is Justice" and allow us to find the best value and not reach in the draft or overpay in free agency as a result of panic. The good news is Marv and Dick have shown to be much more level headed than us, and I expect they will have another very good off season.

I was more excited early about Sherman than Jauron, and had my doubts on Jauron early, wondering if he was up to the challenge. I have not wavered in my optimism for Marv, JP, and the Bills. Clements has genuinely surprised me recently although I was never particularly critical. I have thought we were on the right track even when we were 2-5, and I saw a 7-9 light at the end of the tunnel. However being alive in the playoff race with two weeks to go and having 7-9 the worst case scenario is something I believed when we were 0-0, but I would not have expected when we were 2-5.

Right, but that final outcome also requires an impressive Bills win over the Ravens (something already included in the Bengals number), so I have to think if we are both 9-7 we are likely to win this one. It will not be certain until all is said and done, but I am not worried about that one. Edit: Ozymandius just beat me with much more complete information on this uncertainty. Thanks!

This is assuming a two way tie only, not saying that we need Denver to lose both to finish ahead of them, right? Because I thought if KC, Denver, and Buffalo finish in a three way tie at 9-7, KC eliminates Denver right? If that is correct, there is also this scenario: 5. Buffalo wins out Jets lose to Miami KC beats Oakland and Jacksonville Denver loses to Cin but beats SF Doesn't that put Cin 5th, Bills 6th? Just wondering because that would be an important alternative route since none of your scenarios allow Denver to lose to Cincinnati and beat the 49ers, where this one does. Just wanted to add my two cents and get corrected if I've missed something.

EXACTLY. I also don't think we are in a critical situation if he leaves and are forced into a high draft pick. I think Ashton will be ready to step in (clearly an expected loss of performance, but also an expected good player) and we can line up with McGee and Ashton. I really like Nate, and especially how well he has played in recent weeks, but he leaves an opening where we specifically have a young high talent player being groomed each week in practice. Not as good as keeping Nate of course, who is a premier player, but certainly a backup plan to keep us from paying Nate more than his value to us. Since we already have Ashton on the bench now, Nate's value to us is how much better he is than Ashton (or than McGee if you think Ashton is better than McGee and we could start Ashton and Nate). I might be misevaluating, but I think that with the market Nate will have it is very likely that Nate over Ashton is worth less to us than Premier RG over Preston or Premier DT over Anderson or Fletcher over his alternative, and I would not want our contract with Nate to prevent us from addressing those other places. You will also notice, that even though they often get made fun of when Troy Brown is forced to play, New England has been a team to not overpay big name corners, and it works out for them. Losing Nate would hurt, but probably not quite as much as people think, especially if those dollars are well spent. Again, I really want Nate back and hope it happens, but if his price makes him overvalued compared to other players and positions, we can improve our team MORE by not breaking the bank to keep him.