Koufax

Thanks for the report. Good stuff. What still remains very interesting is that we can make the playoffs in several different ways if we win out. One is Bengals #5, us #6. Two is Denver #5, us #6. I think it is still mathematically possible to have Jets #5, us #6 but much trickier. I think your most interesting observation is that the NE-JAX game isn't so crucial, and we don't really benefit much with a Jax loss. The only way a Jax loss there helps us is if they beat KC the next week AND Denver loses to both Cincinnati AND the 49ers. I think I'm still going to be rooting for New England since it gives us a back door with a KC loss, but the impact is pretty small. The other interesting thing is that after tonight's Colts win, there is very little before our Titans game is over that matters a great deal, so it will be easy to focus on that game without scoreboard watching, and then if the Bills win start to look at the other stuff (CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA specifically). I can't wait. As I mentioned before my biggest one step at a time goal is beating the Titans and having the playoff hopes mathematically alive when we head into Baltimore, because every week that this "playoff scenarios" topic has continued it has become more likely and more meaningful and more exciting.

Preston is the weak link right now, like. Gandy is holding his own, but has no big upside. I haven't seen anything from Duke to indicate he is more than a solid three position backup (not a bad thing at all, and very valuable, just not the road grater RG we should have), although I would like to see him So I think a RG is a near must to upgrade this team, and a LG would be great IF we find a better option than Gandy that doesn't cost us more than it is worth. The really nice surprise is Pennington, who continues to improve (and I think suffers in the running game by being lined up next to Preston). As a very intelligent 6'7" 23 year old, I am very hopeful and optimistic for his future, and think he has proven we don't need to go after starting tackles this off season, and can focus on the guards. Fowler isn't a dominator, but I'm happy with him overall, and don't want change at that position where veteran smarts really make a difference. True we aren't a 3rd and 1 QB sneak team partly because of him, but I want to see him stay there. I could see some eventual competition from Preston whose better size and youth could make him leapfrog Fowler on the depth chart down the road.

I hope we get him back, and am hopeful that with the team surge he will wan to stay. But if we get into an irrational spending contest with Dan Snyder we are going to lose (whether we win the contest or not). Just like when A-Rod left the Mariners for the Rangers for $252 million, it was unfortunate for the Mariners, but it would have been worse to pay him $253 and keep him. I really really want Nate back, and think we are in a position to offer him a LOT of money. But if the Redskins get crazy, I think we can find a way to move on, and think putting Ashton in for Nate is not a big enough downgrade to merit completely breaking the bank and having our hands tied for being able to make other moves. I don't view this as a Pat Williams moment at all. We will definitely court Nate, treat him right, and make him a big offer, and hope he accepts it. If he doesn't take it we will pencil in Ashton and Terrance as our corners, and then look for other places to improve our team to compensate for the downgrade at corner.

Sounds to me like they are ready for a week where things don't go their way. As for the grades, I will take the Bill's performance over the Titans any day. We played a huge game taking care of business on both sides of the ball. Tennessee took advantage of (to their credit) three avoidable mistakes by Jacksonville, and other than those plays which fell in their lap were dominated on both sides of the ball.

My glass has been half full since before training camp. I think over the last few weeks somebody topped it off while I wasn't looking, because it is at least 3/4 full now. Playoffs this year are a nice dream, but what is tremendously valuable for next year's team is playing games that count late in December. That is a huge thing for these kids, and if Price hadn't gotten his feet down in Texas (or any of a million other little things that could have gone against us recently), this team would be 6-8, still progressing, still talented, but without the opportunity to play meaningful games to end the season. Having that opportunity is a huge windfall for us, and I hope we can keep it alive one more week.

I love all the logic and tie breakers, but what it really comes down to is this: We need Buffalo and Miami to win next week. The other stuff can shuffle in a bunch of different ways, and I look forward to getting a full list of who to root for (starting with Indy at home tomorrow), but everything else has options and permutations and alternatives. Also, is it possible for the Jets to get in at #5 (beating Miami?), and us to still make it by both the pass-the-Bengals and pass-the-Broncos scenarios playing out? Just curious if this is an option, or if Jets-Fish is really a do or die for us... Also it will be interesting that the Bills play before the CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA games next week, and before the SF-DEN game in two weeks. That reduces the focus on scoreboard watching somewhat, and reduces the chance of finding out halfway through that the game that you thought mattered doesn't matter so much. In the end, the hardest piece of the puzzle is definitely beating Baltimore, but the single most exciting and important thing is getting a chance for that game to matter. Much better than expectations were at the start of the season.

Too soon to worry, but clearly Ravens could be locked in at #3, or the game could mean difference for either seeding advantage (1v2, 3v4) or by advantage (2v3). Obviously our favorite scenario is if they are locked in at #3, but they aren't going to roll over either way. Right now I'm more focused on getting to that game at 8-7 and having it matter, not what the odds are that we see some backups (which doesn't really have a great history for Bills final weeks anyways).

So a bunch has unfolded since this scenario was first laid out, including the Chiefs losing to SD a few minutes ago. Now it seems we need: NYJ loss to MIA AND 2 of the following 3 things: -1 JAX loss (NE, @KC) -2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) (CIN, SF) -2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker (@IND, @DEN, PIT) I think a Jacksonville loss is very likely in one of those games (without it we need all four of the DEN and CIN results to go our way). The interesting thing is that next week Cincinnati plays Denver, which guarantees one of the above games goes our way (and also that one goes against us). If Cincinnati wins tomorrow they get a big strength of victory boost, so that might be impossible and we might need two Denver losses (or 1-1 with two KC wins). The other thing to note is that if we win against Tennessee next week and Miami beats the Jets, we will be alive going into the final week no matter what else happens. Go Bills!

Depends how they get there. We know how Buffalo would get there, but the other guys have numerous paths to get there.

Well, we got the Bills win and the Jax loss. So if the Chargers can beat KC tonight we will need: NYJ loss to MIA AND 2 of the following 3 things: -1 JAX loss (NE and @KC, so seems pretty likely) -2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) -2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker Every week that passes makes it more possible, it is still a dream more than a likely scenario, but we are going into the second to last week with our playoff hopes still alive, and have a pretty good shot of going into the last week of the season with something to play for. Whether we make it or not, making these last two weeks count is fun, and I think very good for the development of this young team. If anybody has anything to add to the logic, please go ahead, but it will probably be enough to root for Arizona and San Diego today, Indy tomorrow, and then do all the math on Tuesday.

Distance of the actual pass, not yards gained. He was at about the 36 when he threw it (thanks Tivo), and it made it just past the goal line in the air. Two yards shorter by my estimation than the incomplete by Vick on the last possession last night, but completing it counts for bonus points. I have said all along that Cutler will be a very good QB, but I'm still glad we didn't pick him.

A very nice surprise. I think Preston should head back to the bench and be replaced by a big aquisition, but Pennington has the tools and it is nice to see the on field performance improve. It would take a very good tackle to be considered an upgrade this offseason, and I think that should be a low priority for us. If McCargo and Youboty can contribute next year this becomes one of the most impressive draft classes I have ever seen.

I don't think that is a sign of a tough game. It will be a tough game anyway, but I'd be more worried if they had three big scoring drives. Instead they managed less than 100 yards passing and less than 50 yards rushing and only three offensive points. If they don't get the lucky bounces of the turnovers (or we can protect the ball), they have an offense that finished with 98 net yards against our D that just threw a shutout. Still a tough game, but I like our chances and the matchup.

Beat, Peters-like, or future pro bowler, I can wait on. What Pennington has done is move the position off of the must replace. I now think our #1 goal is getting Preston back to his backup role with a monster RG. Then if a LG option better than Gandy shows up take it, otherwise we only upgrade one line position in the off season. I really like not having glaring holes that we have to patch, allowing us to have an intelligent off season getting the best values available and not trying to patch holes and reaching on players at those positions.

I don't agree at all. I think our talent is much higher than that. I agree with the Shaud and Anderson and Reyes. Everett has been underachieving and I would liek to see more out of the TE position. Nate, a #3 DT (or #2 or #1 if we can find someone better than McCargo and Larry), a stud RG, a pass catching TE, linebacker depth to groom for the future, and then whatever best values are out there.

Can the Argonauts play a Grey Cup playoff game at the Ralph? Would the Bills use Canadian rules? Maybe we could try to attract some of the Long Island fans upstate by playing one arena game a year hosted by the New York Dragons. I think Roscoe would be player of the game, and Holcomb could finally throw a deep ball. Joking aside, I think that the best regionalization is through marketing and bringing people from Toronto to Buffalo on Sunday, and all 8 home games and the two playoff home games after our bye should be played in Orchard Park. Maybe a preseason game could go to Toronto.

There are only two reasons to move: 1) Ralph wants more money 2) Whoever buys the team from Ralph wants more money I'm in southern California, but would be heartbroken if the Bills left Buffalo. I'm disappointed 75,000 locals aren't going to the game, because I think the Bills have the best fans, and our sellout streak is currently at zero (which is way behind Green Bay if my facts are right). But whether 72,000 or 75,000 show up doesn't have any impact at all on whether the Bills can survive in Buffalo. They can, and they will until an owner gets greedy for one reason or another. I can't see Ralph doing it, but I really hope he sells the team to a very wealthy local interest invested in the community.

The bills should pull an Oakland A's move and "remove" 5-10,000 seats by covering them up, allowing them to be uncovered in the playoffs or in the future. I'm sure the league doesn't allow "Flex-seating" in terms of the blackout rule, so it isn't like you could adjust it each week, but it is a thought. That said, it is sad when a small market sells more tickets than 2/3rds of the teams can, and gets blacked out anyway.

Very off topic, so I hope it gets moved. Every person needs to make their own choices in life, and after serving for almost a decade, this guy decided he couldn't take it anymore. He was in the one career (other than maybe the mob) where your options to change your mind and walk away are limited. He didn't desert his men on the front lines out of cowardice, he just decided he couldn't do it anymore, and drove north. I have not served (or played pro football), but I think we all get an idea of how difficult it is, especially in a war like this one. I admire the courage of every man and woman serving there right now, and I want to see them all come home safely as soon as possible. These men and women do not make the decisions, they just serve loyally and courageously. Opposing flawed decision making by a president that has cost thousands of these servicemen their lives is not opposing our troops, but instead supporting them. We as citizens have to make sure our government makes the right decisions every step of the way when putting our troops in harm's way, because that is supporting our troops. They don't get to ask if it is the right thing, they have to follow orders. But the country has to ask if it is the right thing and make sure our troops are put in a situation to serve and survive justly and for the benefit of our country and the world. But again, I think each person needs to make their own decisions and lead a free life, and while I do not think this person did the noblest and bravest thing for his country, and should have done a better job of decision making over his ten years to make sure he was prepared for commitments he made, only he knows the totality of his experience and the situation with his family, and as a free man if this is the decision he arrived at while NOT deployed, we have to accept it.

Power rankings are like mock drafts. Read them all and have fun, but realize they have not ties to reality. What matters is that we have a chance to sweep the season series from the Fish, move to .500, and have our playoff hopes still alive with 2 weeks to play in the season. Anybody who tells me they wouldn't have signed on the dotted line for that before the season started is a liar. Go Bills.

No, I don't believe that is true. Do you have numbers on what Ralph's operating profit/losses are? He might choose to try to get richer by moving or selling, or he could choose to operate the team under the salary cap (eventually significantly so). Last I checked the Yankees and Red Sox were home in October watching the Oakland A's in the ALCS on TV, so I don't see the baseball analogy working either. It might be harder to win under the cap in the NFL, but it isn't impossible, and there is nothing saying that we will have to live under the cap fundamentally either.

Yep. Ralph has to stand up for small markets to the NFL whenever possible and get pressure. That doesn't mean we are moving or not spending or anything else. This team would be much more financially successful in LA, no questions asked, but that doesn't mean Ralph can't run them successfully in Buffalo, or even take significant annual losses until he sells/leaves-via-other-means. Either way he has more money than he can ever spend, and has made more money (in equity, but probably in annual revenues as well) off the Bills than he can ever spend. This team does not have to leave at any point, it is only an owner deciding they want more money that will ever cause the team to move. The money works for us to still spend up to the salary cap, and if forced not to, we could field an Oakland A's style team living smartly under the cap. That said, the league subsidizing a NY stadium which will directly cost the Bills money by raising the cap without raising their revenues is a Rich-Man's-Welfare that the Bills should rightfully be upset about and try to address pressuring the NFL to make adjustments that are more fair to the Bills. Go for it Ralph. You haven't moved this team to Baltimore or Tennessee or St. Louis or Arizona or Oakland, and you are rich enough to never be forced into moving from Buffalo. You have my support, and I don't mind if you stand up for small market fairness.

Obviously Peters is a lock, and I think Fowler needs to stay because he is good, and that's a good position to get continuity. I think Preston is the first to be replaced. He is a good multi-position backup, but not going to make the difference and excel. I'm really rooting for Pennington to blossom, because I'd love to have RT locked down for a while. At 6'7", 325, and 23 years old, all that is missing is the actual football playing part , so I think he clearly has more upside than Preston or Gandy. Gandy has been more solid than I expected, but lacks much upside. He can stay there if we can't get two guards who are better than he is, or if we decide Pennington isn't the guy, and we don't want to turn over three linemen. So for now I'd say Preston, thanks for filling in, head back to the bench until someone else gets hurt. Pennington, keep working hard because we would love to pencil you in at RT with a better guard next to you if you can progress in these next three weeks. Gandy, keep at it, because while you aren't great, we might just put our energy into other positions and tolerate pretty good. Also, I think Butler and Merz can both be thrown in the mix, but it is hard to picture either starting at this point. Both are young enough that they could surprise and progress, so I don't see any point in picking up lower round linemen at this point. So a day 1 RG unless free agency finds us a gem, and consider all the RT and LG options and weigh them against what we have and what we give up at other positions to get them. Also, something interesting to do (although not always great angles) is to watch the BuffaloBills.com cam of the game focusing only one lineman the whole time through.

The other stuff can go our way fairly easily, but winning out is the hard part. So let's just stomp the fish and wait for this stuff to be even simpler next week. Although it's fun to know who we are rooting against on Sunday as well. The one interesting thing is that if we beat Baltimore somehow to make the playoffs, there is a very good chance we would play them in the first round, which would certainly provide some momentum.

It is worth noting that the scenario has us winning on the road against Baltimore in a game that could be worth a bye to them. They also could have the #3 seed locked up and not have a bye and rest people, but otherwise that might be the toughest part of the roadmap. It's also interesting that this scenario would have us beating the Ravens the final week only to head back there the following week as our most likely playoff matchup. BUT, all we have to do is keep hope alive a week at a time, so other than stomping the Fish, we are hoping for: SD over KC Indy over Cin Minn over the Jets Tenn over Jax Ari over Denver We don't need every single one of those to happen to keep hope alive, so here's hoping we can continue talking about this stuff next week!