Albany,n.y.

I have Walter 2nd behind Alex Smith who is too smart & athletic to fail. Here's my QB analysis : Quarterback Juniors Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers will be the top two QBs taken, one probably at the top of the entire draft. Both have gotten raves from some and left others skeptical. I endorse Alex Smith due to his combination of smarts, size and athleticism, but I can’t endorse Rodgers who I feel will go higher than he should and is not worth the risk. In 2002, Joey Harrington went #3 overall because he was the 2nd rated QB that year. Well, it’s obvious that 3rd overall was way too high for Harrington. Rodgers will be overdrafted, regardless if it’s at pick 1 or pick 10. After these two in most rankings are Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. I favor Campbell slightly, but I don’t know if either will be great or a bust. Campbell led Auburn and had a good season, but Campbell was the quarterback of the team with the best running game in the nation. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had success, but he improved his draft status tremendously in his senior year. This is a standard red flag of mine that I put under the heading of “One Year Wonder”. These types of QBs seldom have NFL success. Frye won the Senior Bowl MVP award, but I didn’t see enough to be overly impressed by his effort. It pales in comparison to what last year’s Senior Bowl MVP Philip Rivers did in that game. After Alex Smith, it’s pretty much a guessing game. I’ll take a shot with Andrew Walter. Walter’s draft stock has fallen due to a late season shoulder separation, which required surgery, and concerns about his mobility. Some have compared him to Drew Bledsoe, and in some ways they are right. But, if you could get a Bledsoe career out of a 2nd or 3rd pick in this year’s draft, you’d take it. I expect Stefan LeFors to be entrenched as a team’s starting QB down the line. He’s got a ton of talent, but some will think he’s too small. As a result, he’s likely to be a 3rd rounder or even a second day steal. A quarterback who may be one of the most physically talented in the entire draft is Adrian McPherson. The problem is that he got kicked out of Florida State after he stole $3,500. Since he also aledgedly was gambling on sports, the Art Schlichter red flag goes up. Since that time, McPherson appears to have cleaned up his act and dominated in ArenaBall last season. He may end up being the steal of the draft if he lasts until the 3rd round. If he stays out of trouble, he could be a star. He seems to be very sincere that his problems were mistakes that he’ll never repeat. After the 1st two rounds, it’s certainly worth it to give him a second chance. I’m sure his contract will be structured to protect his team. Ben Dougherty, Lang Campbell and Chad Friehauf are good developmental prospect who could make it as a starters down the line. They may have to start on a practice squad and/or in NFL Europe while they learns the NFL game. Friehauf also needs to gain 20-30 pounds, but probably has the best long range potential, although he will most likely get cut in preseason and have to convince a team to add him to its practice squad. Jason White won the Heisman Trophy in 2003 and will be underrated in this draft due to his prior injuries and a lack of mobility. He could last a long time as a backup and possibly start in the right situation. Matt Cassel has been buried on the depth chart at USC and may be better than a lot of college team’s starters. He’s worth bringing into camp and finding out. Timmy Chang ran up some good stats in Hawaii’s run and shoot offense, but he’s not an NFL talent nor does he have the work ethic to overachieve in order to make it. He’ll be a wasted pick if he’s drafted. Chris Rix is a head case who has had some minor traffic violations, slept through exams and isn’t always on time for meetings. I’d love to see him in Giants’ camp and see how long Tom Coughlin would put up with his antics. He’s undraftable, but someone will probably take him. Dan Orlovsky, Brock Berlin and Dustin Long just don’t have enough talent to last very long in the NFL.

Mathis already has an assault conviction on his rap sheet. Best player? , Best Person-NFW

Fitzgerald is too far down on my list to rate as a player to look for. He's ok, but probably nothing better than a career backup. I rate Alex Smith as the best because he's so smart & smart QBs overcome most things. I like Andrew Walter, who is similar to Drew Bledsoe-we may be left not appreciating Bledsoe, but if you get a player who you think is going to have a similar career to him in the 2nd or 3rd round it would be tough to pass up. LeFors is only 6' but he's probably the most talented QB in the draft. Whether his size will not translate his talent to the NFL is the only question-he could be the steal of the draft-remember what people said about Flutie in 1998-if he'd have been given a chance earlier he could have been a star the NFL. Adrian McPherson is talented but ran into theft & gambling trouble in college. If he stays clean he could develop into someone special-he dominated in Arenaball last year. Free agent types Chad Friehauf & Lang Campbell have the best shot of becoming the next Matt Hasselbach-a guy who starts out on a practice squad & ends up a starter years later. L. Campbell might be too short at 6'1" to make it big . Biggest boom or bust is Jason Campbell-he might be great or he could bomb, I can't figure this guy out. Some people really think Charlie Frye is special, I view him as average in this group. He might end up a quality starter in the right situation or he could be just another Jay Fiedler type. I think Dan Orlovsky, Chris Rix, Timmy Chang, Brock Berlin & Dustin Long will not last very long in the NFL if any of them even makes it to an opening day roster. I'm done with my QB evaluations, but I've got a lot of reading to do this weekend & probably won't be posting much until I'm done with the draft analysis byTuesday or Wednesday.

Neither. We're drafting Adam Terry or we'll get one of the centers & move Teague to LT. If we trade with TB, I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with Ronde Barber (who is talking holdout) & then traded Nate for a windfall from Washington. http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player?statsId=3985

I'm calling Kiper's bluff on this one: In last year's guide he rated JP at 8.8. In this year's guide he rates both Smith & Rodgers at 9.4. So, either he doesn't believe his rating system is any good, or he's just saying something that sounds fashionable. If he had these 2 at 8.4, I'd believe him. I usually downgrade underclass QBs. So far I rate Smith #1, but I wouldn't risk a top 5 pick on Rodgers. Smith has it over Rodgers in smarts & size. Rather than take a QB in the 1st, I'd take Andrew Walter in the 2nd or Stefan LeFors in the 3rd or 4th. LeFors is only 2" shorter than Rodgers, but Rodgers will be gone at or near the top. If LeFors is given a fair shot, he'll be better than Rodgers. If you're a Frye guy, he can be taken late 1st or early 2nd instead of Rodgers. I just don't get why any team would take Rodgers-he'll be the most overdrafted player. He's no better than a late 1st rounder. Smith, Walter, LeFors & possibly Frye will be better NFL QBs than Rodgers. Maybe even Jason Campbell.

Drafting a QB at any point in the draft makes no sense period.

Do the virtual tour, much better than the still photos.

Assuming that the Henry/Shelton trade is dead, here's a couple of possible reasons. The 2nd is a little wild, but here goes. A) The Bills have determined that the possibilities of a 2nd rounder fitting the line are better than Shelton. They have 3 options if they stay at 55. 1) They get Adam Terry, the guy I think they want the most. If he's ready to start on opening day Teague stays at center, if he needs a year then Tucker moves to C, Teague to LT & Terry is groomed to be the starter in 2006. 2& 3) If Terry is gone, they have 2 shots at getting a C-Bass or Spencer. The pick battles Tucker while Teague goes outside. I think if Terry & Bass or Spencer goes too early, TD pulls out the Henry card & trades him for a move up in round 2 & a conditional 2006 pick & takes the remaining player. B) He doesn't want to trade Henry to Arizona because the Clements to Washington trade is happening & he wants Ariz to pick a RB instead of a corner. He then replaces Clements at pick 9 & scenario A still takes place in round 2.

Here it is http://www.buffaloniagarahomes.com/propert...arch=NO&src=bnh

Not since TD came in. They took Terrance McGee in the 4th in 2003, but TD likes big school guys. The only other obscure school pick was Tyrone Robertson in the 7th @ pick 238 which is virtually a throw away pick. They must have really thought McGee was special. The small school guys come in as undrafted free agents .

I don't buy the thought that the Bills don't want Shelton. There are 2 possible reasons the trade hasn't happened. 1) Arizona wants a guy at pick 8 who is not a RB and if the trade takes place before they pick, they're afraid that someone else will trade up & get him 2) The negotiating for pick 44 has the two teams playing poker against each other

Thanks. What do you think of Terry & where he'll go in the draft? I think he's the player TD's targeting with the move to 44, but he might be gone by then.

I've still got a lot of work to do before the draft, but I wrote my Bills needs analysis 1st draft today. Subject to change in the next 2 weeks with trades & other FA signings occurring in the next week & 1/2. Quarterback J.P. Losman has been named the starter. With the signing of Kelly Holcomb as the veteran backup, the Bills are looking for a 3rd stringer. That 3rd stringer will be a guy with a minimum salary. I don’t see that need being addressed in the draft. Right now the team has four QBs on the roster, including street free agents Tory Woodbury and Kevin Thompson. Thompson has elevated his status with some impressive work in NFL Europe. If the Bills decide that they want to bring in an undrafted player to compete for the 3rd stringer’s job, Woodbury won’t be around much longer. Just as likely is that the team lets Thompson and Woodbury battle it out in camp and if neither impresses, a QB is plucked off the waiver wire like the team did several years ago with Travis Brown. Running Back Willis McGahee is the starter. Currently behind him on the roster are returnees Shaud Williams, Joe Burns, and Dante Brown. With veteran free agents like Garrison Hearst on the market, there isn’t an immediate need to draft a backup running back. Factor in the depth needs at other positions and the chances of a drafted RB in camp are slim. If Travis Henry isn’t already gone, he will be very shortly from now. Fullback Damon Shelton is the only fullback on the roster, although Joe Burns is behind him on the depth chart. There will be at least one rookie in camp, but chances are he’ll be an undrafted free agent. As with QB and RB, the team has more important needs and the front line player or players are entrenched in the position. Tight End Mark Campbell and Tim Euhus both suffered knee injuries late last season. Ryan Neufeld is a marginal talent. Unless a veteran free agent is signed, the Bills will be drafting a TE, probably fairly early in the draft. Wide Receiver Lee Evans is an emerging superstar. Eric Moulds is still a star, but every year his contract has to be renegotiated because of high salary cap numbers. Eventually that will stop. As a result, the Bills may be thinking of drafting a receiver somewhere in this draft. However, he has to be the right receiver, otherwise no receiver will be drafted this year. Josh Reed has been a disappointment and could be cut if Sam Aiken beats him out for the #3 receiver’s spot. Freddie Smith should make the roster as a punt returner and backup receiver. If a receiver is drafted it will be on day 2, not day 1. If the team doesn’t get a receiver this year, they can always get one in free agency or the 2006 draft. This is not an immediate need in this year’s draft, so it may not be addressed due to other needs. Offensive Tackle The team loves Syracuse’s Adam Terry. Even if the Henry for Shelton trade is made, he might still be the pick. If he is on the board when the Bills pick, pencil him in as the pick. If Henry is traded anywhere but Arizona, Terry is the pick, even if they have to trade up to get him. Drafting Terry gives them flexibility down the line if Mike Williams doesn’t play up to his lofty salary in 2005. If the Shelton trade is made and Terry isn’t available, the team might not draft a pure tackle but look at another player like Dylan McFarland, who can play several line positions. The only way Trey Teague moves to left tackle is if the Shelton trade falls apart and Adam Terry is drafted before the Bills can make a move to get him. Look for Albany’s Geir Gudmundsen to get a camp invite if he goes undrafted. If they don’t get Terry, he might be the team’s 6th or 7th round pick. Guard I can’t see the team drafting a pure guard after signing Bennie Anderson. The team has starters Anderson and Chris Villarrial as well as 2004 starting LGs Ross Tucker and Lawrence Smith. Toss in Mike Gandy, Justin Bannan and even Ben Sobieski and you can see why this is one of the least likely position to be addressed in the draft. If the team drafts a guard it means he’ll go to camp as a center candidate. There is no room for another guard on the roster. Center Trey Teague is an unrestricted free agent after the 2005 season, so a center may be drafted. However, there may be no need to worry if they determine that Teague can be resigned or that Ross Tucker can be his replacement. I don’t see the team drafting a center, just like I don’t see the team drafting a guard. Jon Dorenbos is coming off a knee injury and Mike Gomez is 2nd on the depth chart at LS. If a rookie LS is brought in he’ll be a free agent, not a draft choice. Defensive Tackle Sam Adams is getting older and Pat Williams is gone. Ron Edwards can be a free agent after the season and Luvale Sape has limited ability. Even if Tim Anderson turns into the next Tim Krumrie, the team will be looking to get a DT who can start by 2006. This position could easily be addressed in the 2nd or 3rd round. If the team goes OT and CB 1st, they’ll have to draft a DT with their 1st or 2nd pick in 2006 because the cupboard will be bare after the 2005 season, plus Adams will be a free agent after 2006. Defensive End I can’t see this being addressed on day 1 because OT, CB, DT, TE and K are all priorities that need TD’s immediate attention. Once you get to rounds 5-7 anything is possible because best player available really starts to apply. Aaron Schobel is locked in as one starter. Because of more immediate concerns, the team will go with Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney again opposite Schobel. However, they could pick up a veteran free agent to compete here. This position just cannot be addressed in this years draft. Linebacker I don’t see a linebacker being taken. Once again, anything goes in rounds 5-7, but there are just too many other needs on the roster. Cornerback This could become a major area of need in a hurry. Nate Clements is an unrestricted free agent after this season, Travis McGee is a restricted free agent after 2005. The only protection that the Bills have is that they could move Troy Vincent back to corner, but that would severely weaken the safety corps. A CB or S is almost guaranteed to be a high priority unless they shock us all and announce a contract extension for Nate Clements before the draft. Safety Lawyer Malloy is set at SS, Vincent is set at FS. Backups Coy Wire and Rashad Baker are close to set. The only way a S is drafted is if they can’t get a CB and are thinking of shifting Vincent back there at some point by 2006. Kicker If you look at stats, like some of the national writers do, the team looks set with Rian Lindell. If you watch the Bills at all, you know Rian Lindell is a liability who must be replaced. If the team’s opening day kicker is Lindell, the team is in big trouble. Don’t kid yourself, team management is fully aware of the situation. Coach Mularchy has shown how little confidence he has in Lindell past 40 yards. Lindell will not be back. He’s also too expensive with a salary of $825,000 and a cap number over $1.3 million. For less than $300,000 cap hit, he can be cut after June 1st. So, what are the options? The team could shock the draft and pick Mike Nugent with its 1st pick in round 2. It’s unlikely, but if he’s the best player on the board, I could see them locking up the kicker's job for the next decade. If Owen Pochman is kicking up a storm in Europe I could see them just letting him beat out Lindell in camp. The most likely scenario is this: bring in a rookie K either drafting one in the 7th round or getting an undrafted free agent into camp. Pochman, Lindell and the rookie battle it out in camp. If Pochman is bombing in Europe by the draft, he’s a goner before camp and Lindell battles the rookie. If Pochman is lights out in Europe, Lindell may be gone before camp opens. Then it’s Pochman vs the rookie. The season’s kicker might not even be in camp, but could be a veteran who gets cut by someone else. Believe it, one way or another Lindell will not be back, they can’t afford him. Punter Bryan Moorman is the punter. Anyone brought in is camp fodder. As I said last year, this is one position that I can guarantee will not be addressed in the 7 round draft. Conclusion The Bills have major needs to address at several positions, but most of those needs are preemptive strikes against future free agent defections. They must have a new kicker by opening day 2005. Cornerback and defensive tackle have to be addressed since there are potential free agent losses after the season. Tight end and offensive tackle are also areas where the team has to look for immediate help. Since the Bills only have 6 total picks, there’s not much room to address other positions in the draft. This could be an elite team in 2005 since the only positions that need an immediate upgrade are offensive tackle, kicker and possibly tight end. This draft, for the most part is for 2006, not 2005. Once Travis Henry is traded, the draft picture will become a lot more focused.

Good! Spending a top pick on a guy who will be changing positions to something he never did before is insanity.

I'm starting to think that Andrew Walter may have pushed himself back into the 1st round. I could see him going before Frye, Orton or Campbell. Remember when Kelly was injured in college & still went in the 1st round. Here's the latest on Walter: 04/07/2005 - ANDREW WALTER RETURNS TO ARIZONA STATE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WORKOUT ON PRO DAY TEMPE, ARIZONA (April 6, 2005) - After four months of intense rehab, the Sun Devil quarterback who set almost every Arizona State University career and single season passing record, returned to Arizona State for an anticipated and impressive workout. Scouts and QB coaches from various NFL teams eagerly waited and studied each throw of the 6’6” Quarterback who experienced a 3rd degree separation of his AC joint in his right shoulder during the final game of the 2004 season. At his pro day Wednesday, Andrew ran in the low 4.8’s in the 40, and threw approximately 65 balls in front of an audience that included NFL quarterback coaches from the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and Chicago Bears. Prior to the injury, Andrew Walter was considered one of the top QB prospects in the upcoming draft. Many feel Andrew deserves to still be there. According to Darcy Norman of Athletes Performance Institute, who was in charge of Walter’s rehab, “Walter is way ahead of schedule for recovery. He is on schedule to be able to fully participate in his upcoming mini camp. That’s amazing after only five months”. Norman also added that, “he is a hard working, diligent athlete who has treated this process as a true professional”. This is a guy that has a history of playing against long odds and winning. In a high school varsity basketball game he once played an entire game with a broken finger, while scoring 20 points and hitting four clutch free throws in the final two minutes to seal the win! Injury or no injury, this is a talented player who was a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and the semi finalist for the Davey O’Brien Award last season. Walter also earned second-team All- Pac-10 honors, breaking Jake Plummer's career passing marks by 1,790 yards and 20 touchdowns. He also broke the Pac-10 career touchdown record with 85, ending the previous 21 year old mark held by Stanford great John Elway (77 TDs). Walter is the only QB in school history to have 3,000 passing yards in a season while being voted co-captain in each of those three seasons. Elite Sports PR Management 04/07/2005 - (Pro Day note, Next Level Scouting, Inc) - ARIZONA STATE (April 6th) senior quarterback ANDREW WALTER ran between 4.85 and 4.88 in the 40... some had him a little faster; 4.82... weighs 6054, 235 pounds... showed good footwork and moved fairly well through his intial positional drills... able to do a full assortment of passing drills (30 minutes)... threw from both the drop back and roll out, which may have helped him more than anything... as some came away more impressed with his footwork/mobility than previously... did not show too much wear on his arm strength, considering he is only four months removed from surgery to correct a third-degree separation of his throwing shoulder... a few of his (deep) passes wobbled and were less accurate than normal... but he did a good enough job to convince teams that he will be back or near full strength by the start of training camp... plus the team that drafts him will be able to decide how to best complete his rehab and how much throwing he will actually do in early rookie camps... also received an updated and positive evaluation last weekend at the Combine's medical re-check.

Here's the Devil's Advocate answer to why Jacko may get off: He's not on trial for any of the past deeds that these people are testifying about. He may be guilty of all his past deeds, but if the jury is convinced that he is not guilty of the crime he is charged - molesting a child who is from a family of lying grifters, he may legitimately get off. This family has been shown to have lied to get money out of a store & it's not much of a stretch to think they saw Jacko as an easy mark. If he gets off, it's because they never prosecuted him for the crimes against the honest & believable witnesses. Want to blame someone for Jacko being a free man-blame the DA's office for choosing the worst possible case to prosecute, not the jury if they let him go.

There won't be many nasty signs hanging around because security will make them take it down. In the 1/91 AFC Championship Game someone hung a sign that said "Bo knows the Raiders suck" It was gone ASAP. The team wants to portray itself as family friendly even though we all know it's BS, so the easiest way is to take down offensive signs because that stuff shows up on the TV cameras a lot easier than drunk, cursing, fighting fans do.

Lenny P: "He's traded, he's not traded, he's traded, he's not traded-my @ss is covered, I'm right again, I'm an NFL Savant!"

One factor which you haven't accounted for: How much do you downgrade a player's trade value when he's in the final year of his contract? Travis Henry is definitely worth a 2nd if he's got 2 or more years left on his contract. But, would you give up a 2nd-where you can draft a player who you can lock up for 4 years for a player who can be 1 & done?

I think Bannan makes it due to ironman capabilities, Smith maybe, Sobieski has to be healthy & improved. Until I hear Euhus is advancing as well as Campbell, I only see 1 NFL TE on the roster. OL will be easy to address next year when we have a 1st round pick. Gotta get ready for Idol @ 8, like Seacrest says-Out. It looks like Scott the abuser's last stand.

Thanks, it looks like you like my football posts better than political ones

If we get Shelton then the OL does not become immediate need & we still have Tucker to backup G/C. Gandy for backup G/T and McFarland/Bannan/Sobieski/Peters/Smith as backup depth. Only Teague & Bannan would be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. We would have added 3 linemen in the offseason prior to the draft. Meanwhile, both our starting CBs are in the final year of their contracts, Nate's unrestricted. We have to have a plan if one (or both with good compensation for McGee) leaves. CB has to be our biggest need going into the draft unless Nate is signed to an extension. Additionally, both starting caliber TEs are coming off knee surgery. TD said after the season that due to this TE would be addressed in offseason. If we move up it's for CB or TE, not OL. Also any dreams of Nugent are gone.

That was the 1st Bills road game I ever saw. I went with a group a Jets season ticket holders who were friends of a co-worker & had an extra seat. The Jets had gotten trounced by the Raiders 31-0 on opening day & I thought we had a legitimate chance of winning. When we went up 3-0 I was smelling victory. Next thing I knew the Jets kept scoring & everyone but a handful of people left the stadium. All the Jets fans around me went home & I was about the only one left in the section-all I wanted was the Bills to score a TD before the game ended. At least it was an easy ride home since by the end of the game the parking lot had already emptied out. My 1st Bills game was December 9, 1973, the Bills last home game of the year. They beat the Patriots 37-13, O.J. rushed for 219 yards and didn't murder anyone. The thing I remember most is the lousy weather. It was a very wet snow & even with the blanket I brought in we got totally soaked (the blanket was wet & steaming by the 4th quarter) & then had to drive back to Fredonia. I took all my clothes & the blanket & put them in the dryer as soon as we got back to the dorm.

$3 million dollar salary to play the Marcus Price role...NO!

The main problem with trading for Henry is you only have him under contract for 1 year, but...he's a cheap $1.25 million in salary and cap for 2005 if you trade for him. So, if you need a RB & are thinking about seeing how Travis fits in with your team at very little risk, then Travis is worth trading for. If you want to have a RB locked up for the next few seasons-don't trade for Travis. Shelton has value as well, since he plays a position where a guy of his talents is usually overpaid. Since Arizona gave him big upfront money & he has a few years left on his contract, you get him at a reduced price. In addition, he is low risk because he counts $3 million in salary & cap for 2005 & with his present contract, if he doesn't work out in 2005, you cut him with no cap ramifications in future seasons. Also, by trading for him instead of waiting for him to be released, you have him locked in, rather than getting into a bidding war where you'll have to pay him at least $3 million this year & could get hit with cap hits in future years if he doesn't work out. Both players are on 1 year trials with their new team, but I'd rather have the player who, if he works out in your system, you don't have to worry about losing in 1 year. Because of the contracts involved, I believe Shelton has more value than Henry. Both lost their jobs and neither team really wants them back in 2005. The trade helps both teams stay within cap constraints & fill a void in the lineup. If TD can get the switch of #2s thrown in, he's doing very good. He can then pick the top TE or CB left on the board in the 2nd round. Odds of finding a good one increases when moving up to Arizona's spot.