dave mcbride

Brady came across as very likable in The Dynasty, I gotta say.

Yep. Over his final six games of the regular season, Rice had 43 catches on 56 targets for 518 yards and 3 TDs. That's 9.25 yards per target and a 77 percent catch rate. It also extrapolates to 121 catches for 1,467 yards and 9 TDs over a 17 game season. In four playoff games, he had 26 catches on 33 targets and 262 yards plus 1 TD. Point is, young players do actually get better and more acclimated over the course of a season. Looking at the pictures of the more recent players on this list, you definitely begin to see evidence of Parcell's "planet theory" for the NT position. Most of the more recent guys are absolute monsters, size-wise: https://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-best-nose-tackles-in-nfl-history.html.

Calvin Ridley is elite, as evidenced by his huge contract this offseason. He also made Keir Elam look absolutely terrible last season. Great post, though!

Brock Purdy has flat out proven that he is a good NFL qb. The better comp for your argument is Mac Jones.

I completely agree.

I get this, but it’s more of “watch the actual games” thing for me. Chase is uncoverable and outside of Tyreek Hill the most dangerous receiver in the league. He draws the best cover people and still shreds teams. And his stats weee depressed this year by having an inferior QB throwing to him for most of the season, whether it was an injured Burrow or a backup. I feel extremely confident in saying that there is not one GM, head coach, or OC in the league who would choose St. Brown over Chase.

another write-up of the leading prospects, this time from The Ringer: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/4/9/24124742/best-wide-receivers-2024-nfl-draft-class-marvin-harrison-jr-malik-nabers-rome-odunze

Regarding 2021, in what world is Amon-Ra St. Brown better than Ja’marr Chase? I ask because it surely ain’t earth, and it’s not really debatable.

Was just reading this! Interesting how low he has Legette at.

I hear you, but the Bills believe in it so much that they apparently won't draft a CB whose arms are shorter than 31".

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

I did a deep dive on the non-Patriot winners of the SB going back to 2006. Lots of late first rounders and second rounders across the board, and no one in the top half of the first round except for Mike Evans. One BIG caveat: Atlanta should never have lost to NE in the Feb 2017 SB, and they had a top ten pick at WR (Julio Jones). Also, if Aaron Donald doesn't destroy the crappy o-lineman in front of him, Joe Burrow hits top ten pick Ja'maar Chase for the game winning TD because Ramsey fell down. But I digress. 2006: Indy - Harrison (1st, 18th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th overall) 2008: Pitt - Santonio Holmes (1st round, 25th overall), Hines Ward (3rd round) 2009: New Orleans - Robert Meacham (1st; 27th overall), Devery Henderson (2nd; 50th overall), Colsten (7th rounder) 2010: GB - Jordy Nelson (2nd; 36th overall); Greg Jennings (2nd, 52nd overall), Driver (seventh rounder), James Jones (3rd rounder) 2012: Baltimore - Torrey Smith (2nd, 58th overall) and a bunch of random free agents (e.g., Boldin) 2013: Seattle - Golden Tate (2nd, 60th overall), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Jermaine Kearse (undrafted) 2015: Denver - Demariyus Thomas (1st, 22nd overall), Emmanuel Sanders (free agent) 2017: Philly - Nelson Agholor (1st, 20th overall), Alshon Jeffrey (FA), Torrey Smith (FA) 2019: KC - Tyreek Hill (5th rounder but obviously a top ten talent with off-field issues), Mecole Hardiman (2nd, 56th overall), Demarcus Robinson (4th), Sammy Watkins (FA) 2020: TB: Mike Evans (1st, 8th overall), Godwin (3rd), Scotty Miller (6th), Antonio Brown (FA) 2021: Rams - Van Jefferson (2nd, 50th overall), Cupp (3rd), Woods (FA), OBJ (FA) 2022: KC - Skyy Moore (2nd, 54th overall), Valdes-Scantling (FA), Juju (FA), Justin Watson (FA), Mecole Hardimon (2nd) 2023 KC - Rice (2nd, 55th overall), see 2022 KC (above) for the rest Anyway, food for thought.

Why do you argue that? Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr were more productive, put up better numbers at the combine, and come from a program (that Joe Brady made his bones at) that is now basically Wide Receiver U — LSU.

I don't have twitch and I don't really watch TV either. A link to an article would be great. I looked it up and found nothing outside of sketchy youtube commentators, but perhaps I was using poor search terms. It's not that I don't believe you, but when people ask for a link and are told to do their own digging, it's a little frustrating. Having said all of this, it does seem a little implausible to me for the Niners to trade him. Why not keep him for next year on a very reasonable fifth-year option salary? They are a Super Bowl-caliber team and he was by pretty much every measure one of the best receivers in the NFL last season (and a second-team all-pro). A 17.9 ypr average coupled with a 71.4 percent catch percentage rate is pretty staggering.

Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?

I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too:

A lot of folks do have Thomas as the third best of the lot. I don't know enough, but from what I've read his talent is such that it's not crazy to view him as just behind Nabers and MHJ. Plus the track record of highly drafted LSU receivers is pretty damn good.

Minnesota's pick won't be there, I don't think. They're pretty obviously bent on trading up to get a QB.

That's bonkers. Of course Odunze is going in round one.

There are so many good receivers in this draft that it's likely a guy who may well have been a first rounder in other years (McConkey, who is really good and a great athlete) falls to the second. It's not about the number assigned to the round of the pick; it's about the talent level of the player. I think his point is a) take advantage of a great WR draft NOW and b) get Allen his elite skill players sooner rather than later. Aiyuk is really good, as evidenced by finishing #2 in yards per target last season.

We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that.

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it: "A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great. What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career. Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024 Targets Yards Yards/Target Kincaid 110 800 7.3 Shakir 80 800 10 Samuel 90 750 8.3 All RBs 80 650 8.1 That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2 For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history. It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years. All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

My strong recollection from the postgame analyses of that game is that the Bills ran away from Parsons all game, i.e., identifying which side he was on pre-snap and then going in the other direction. I recall Jim Kubiak breaking it down in the BN, so if my memory isn’t faulty what you’re saying here is completely wrong.

Um, Mike Williams, when healthy (which is most of the time), has been very good. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi07.htm

The problem with this scenario is that he has the Chargers taking on offensive lineman while their elite qb has no receivers to throw to. It strikes me as completely implausible as a consequence.