dave mcbride

I hadn’t seen this posted yet, but if it has, apologies. The basic takeaway: Simms sounds like us, and his recommendation — that the Bills need more Jimmies and Joes — makes a ton of sense. Specifically, he says they need one more top-level pass catching threat, an elite d-lineman that teams have to worry about, and another good cover corner. That all makes sense to me (I’ve been thinking for a while that they need an upgrade at the other corner spot).

Can we end the fiction that Brown “dropped” the pass? It was a bad decision by Allen and he was completely covered:

This^^^^. This TB team is dirty, mercenary, and thoroughly unlikeable. I’m old enough to remember that Antonio Brown is actually a terrible human being. Also, that defense delivers so many cheap shots, and they have a blowhard, wannabe celebrity coach who likes to make himself the center of attention. All of that, combined with Brady (who had to gall to dump on the region that made him a star after he moved to Florida), has me pulling for a 45-10 blowout by the Chiefs.

He was actually good in 2019 ...

I thought the FG at the end of the half was the correct call, but not the second one. They (especially Allen) looked lost in that goal-to-go sequence, and the Chiefs had them figured out.

I thought FG was the right decision at the end of the first half (but not the second one). I had zero confidence the Bills would score on that fourth down at then end of the first half. They looked lost and confused in that sequence.

Jim Leonhard ran that D! Or was the only one capable of running that D. But yeah, you’re basically right. It was always Leonhard. He followed Rex from Baltimore to the Jets, and then Leonhard followed Pettine to Buffalo in 2013 and Cleveland in 2014. He played for one year in Denver in 2012, and The Jets’ D under Rex cratered that year. Leonhard was basically the on-field coordinator for that system. Without him, it fails, which means something obvious: any system reliant on the participation of one undrafted safety long past his sell-by date to succeed is a bad system.

My beef with Singletary - who I actually think is non-terrible - is that he's not a good receiver. I want a back who is all purpose and actually good, like Kamara. I'd prefer to get him later in the draft, but sometimes other teams want guys like that too. I agree about the line, but tackles aren't the problem. The Alabama center appears to be pretty good. The guard for OSU seems good too. You can get a top center/guard in the mid-30s, so you'd be able to trade down and pick up, say, a late third/early fourth.

What do you think of Michel's postseason performance in 2018? Also, He was hurt a lot this season, but he did average 5.7 ypc on 79 carries, which -- excluding QBs like Lamar Jackson -- was second best in the league after Dobbins. That's Gillislee level stuff! (I kid.) Anyway, he did look pretty explosive this year when he was in there. I did watch that Eagles/Saints game, and to be honest, I thought the Eagles were going to blow them out early on -- that is, until the Saints started completely dominating, which was well before halftime. Bad drop by Jeffrey, for sure, but there was no guarantee of a TD. The drop occurred at around the 18 yard line, IIRC. The Saints were indeed behind until late in the third, but bear in mind that they scored on their first drive of the third quarter -- and it took up eleven and a half minutes.

The Saints had 420 yards to the Eagles 250 in that game, and the Saints won the turnover battle too, getting 2 and only giving up 1. Not sure what you're referring too -- they utterly dominated the Eagles statistically. They had the ball for a ridiculous 37:50 to the Eagles 22:10 also. Also, the next time Singletary rushes for 336 yards and 6 TDs on 71 carries in three postseason games -- which Michel did in 2018 -- let me know.

A referee who doesn't make one of the worst non-calls ever, for one.

I'll believe those RB numbers when I see it. I just don't see teams spending a lot for the decline years of RBs, especially this year given the cap decline.

You really think Drake gets that? I doubt it, but who knows? Lynch turned out to be a great pick (just not for the Bills, although he was quite good in his first two seasons)!

Well, Sony Michel, who was legit good in 2018. Seattle got a top ten draft pick for a song (Lynch), and I'm down for that if such a player is available for trade. I'm not saying spend a first rounder or early second rounder on a RB, by the way. That was never my point, but it can be a wise expenditure in certain situations.

Another point about championships and rushing the ball: 2018: NE was 3rd in rushing attempts and 5th in yards 2017: Philly was 6th in attempts and 3rd in yards 2016: NE was 3rd in attempts and 7th in yards 2015: Denver was 17th in attempts and 17th in yards (better than their passing numbers; they won with defense anyway) 2014: NE was 13th in attempts and 18th in yards 2013: Seattle was 2nd in attempts and 4th in yards 2012: Baltimore was 12th in attempts and 11th in yards Last year, the Chiefs were 27th in attempts and 23rd in yards, and in 2011, the Giants were 22nd in attempts and 32nd in yards. Still, the majority of teams listed above do run the ball and most had great passing games too (Denver in 2015 was an anomaly). Seattle barely threw it 2014 (31st in the league in attempts), but they were 10th in TD passes and had a team passer rating of 102.4. My point is, you can be a pass-first team, but when you absolutely need to turn on a run game in the playoffs in order to keep teams honest and your own attack balanced, you gotta have some horses. In three playoff games, the Bills' RBs ran it 30 times for 112 yards (3.7 ypc) and reeled off zero big plays.

Or a trade down from 30, which would be preferable given that it'll land the Bills an extra pick.

I get the scoring, but in the playoffs you have to be able to switch gears against good teams. They couldn't run against any of the teams they faced, and if not for the pick six, they're winning by the skin of their teeth (and maybe even losing to Baltimore) because they can't get more than mid-20s level points. Same thing with KC. I'm talking about an ingredient for a championship-level team, not about scoring 48 points vs. Jacksonville in early October.

I think he was in their doghouse because of fumbling. That may be the sort of thing they saw in practice and which we didn't know about. When he fumbled early last year in the red zone, we saw very little of him afterward. Historically, though, he hasn't been a particularly bad fumbler.

Good post, but the thing about Kamara is that he is a great route runner, which is everything to me. He can run WR routes, RB routes, etc. I actually think Yelden is a decent receiving back, but the other two aren't. But Yelden is likely gone and is basically a JAG overall. I just think it adds another dimension to an offense that needs to get to KC's level in order to beat them. You have to account for a player like that on every play he's in there. As for Drake, I've seen enough over the years to think he's a good dual threat. His numbers were down this year, but they were excellent last year after he joined AZ. I doubt that's a result of physical decline. He has a solid 40 time, too, fwiw - 4.45.

I don't disagree, but at pick #29, I think it's OK if he's clearly a better player talent than the alternatives. It's strange to say that the Bills have a lot of needs, but they do. Of course, first world problems.

I know, I know, guys like him are hard to find. But a RB who is both a talented runner and an excellent receiver out of the backfield would take the Bills' passing game to an even higher level (not to mention the running game). The Bills' passing game is awesome, but it's awfully reliant on WRs. Is there anyone with a Kamara profile in this year's draft? If not, Kenyon Drake--a free agent who turns 27 today--would be my target. He's not Kamara, but his game is similar, and he probably has 2-3 good years left in him.

As I said, he refused to take a lot of easy gainers throughout the game. Josh didn't play well on Sunday night, especially with regard to decision making. He'll get better.

I think that sounds wise. He is always a guy who has played a lot of snaps, by the way. Just look at this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm

Disagree, Hap -- 22 percent is by far and away the fewest snaps he played all season. Check out the offensive snap count percentage to the right in the game logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviGa01.htm.

Good, concise piece. JW is clued in.