Einstein

The fact that there are so many different variables and the data is still so consistent is what makes it so remarkable.

I see that data analysis is not your strong suit.

You would rather be the bridesmaid for a long time but never the bride… I just don’t understand that rational.

Great question. The answer is that the numbers are likely to be very close to the same, as many of the coaches have both won and lost Super Bowls.

Reid made it in his 6th season.

And when it does it typically happens within 7 years.

Great ideas for further research.

That’s fair.

Agreed, but those numerous variables and unique circumstances seem to point to a remarkably consistent conclusion when examining the data over a long span of time. Can a coach past year 7 be the outlier? Sure. But that requires faith in a significantly low percentage of success (8%).

What the data shows is that point in time typically happens within a coaches first 7 years.

Maybe at one point in time.

I'll be celebrating right next to you.

I haven't done that analysis yet, but lots of coaches on the Super Bowl list had been fired. Several of them after only 1 down year following several great years.

Exactly. That's why teams should always be searching for one who can. Haha. Got it fixed!

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash. To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons. Here is what the data revealed: On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl. Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons) NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance. NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season. the chart cuts off some of the names because the list is so long, but the data is there.

Forget about “always”. How about ever? Other teams figure out how to get that perfect ending 2, 3, 4, even 6 times.

This is the rallying cry of every loser. The victors show off their rings.

I could not have been more clear. A team has a successful season if they win the Super Bowl. If they don’t, it wasn’t successful. Doesn’t mean the team sucks, but they did not meet their goal. Notice that Allen didn’t mention the “micro goals” you love? Because he (rightfully so) doesn’t give a crap about those. “The goal is to win the super bowl” - Josh Allen

The Bills have not been successful at completing the one and only goal of every NFL team. They have not even been successful at gaining entry to the event (Super Bowl) that gives them the opportunity to grasp the one and only goal. Nothing to do with egotism. It’s just fact. “Our goal is to win the Super Bowl” - Josh Allen

McNabb was good but I think you’re overrating him a bit. He averaged 18 TD’s per season. That’s pretty low. It took him 8 seasons to have as many passing TD’s as Allen has in 5 (not even including rushing TD’s). That Super Bowl year you mentioned seemed to break him. He only had 2 seasons with more than 20 TD’s the remainder of his 7 year career. .

Wow. This speaks volumes.

Fans ignore that. We traded the picks that are the best QB in the NFL and the best WR in the NFL. But that’s okay, because, excuses…

It’s not. Reid showed early on that he can make Super Bowls and Championship games. And it took him getting fired and multiple QB’s later to win a Super Bowl.

Yeah, that’s tiered progress. There is no (or at least very little) correlation between a business or personal collaborative effort with tiered progress, and the NFL. The NFL does not require tiered progress. Teams can go from missing the playoffs one season to winning the Super Bowl the next. Teams can go from losing nearly half of their regular season games, to winning the Super Bowl, in the same season. In the NFL, tiered progress is not required… Unless you are actively seeking something positive to be happy about, to make one feel better.

lol, what? The fact that McD and Frazier called the exact same defensive formation on 3rd and short doesn’t matter because it was an early season game instead of a playoff game? Grasping at straws level 1,000.