These are some stats that @HoofHearted and I have been playing with via private message since the Patriots loss on Sunday.
Bills offense 11 personnel vs 12 personnel
Passing
11 Personnel: 132/148 for 849 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5 Sacks, 5.4 A/DYPA
12 Personnel: 66/91 for 754 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks 8.3 A/DYPA
Rushing
11 Personnel: 94 attempts for 457 yards, 4.86 YPC, 6 TD, 1 Fumble, 31 first downs, 11 attempts inside the 5 yard line.
12 Personnel: 57 attempts for 186 yards, 3.26 YPC, 1 TD, 2 Fumble, 10 first downs, 3 attempts inside the 5 yard line.
How does play-action affect passing performance?
11 Personnel with p/a: 20/26 for 144 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 7.86 A/NYPA
11 Personnel withOUT p/a: 69/106 for 705 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4.86 A/NYPA
12 Personnel with p/a: 23/32 for 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 12.42 A/NYPA
12 Personnel withOUT p/a: 43/59 for 357 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6.03 A/NYPA
Rushing performance by blocking scheme
Totality
Zone: 61 attempts for 218 yards, 3.57 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 90 attempts for 448 yards, 4.98 ypc, 3 TD.
Under Center
Zone: 27 attempts for 92 yards, 3.41 ypc, 0 TD.
Man: 37 attempts for 242 yards, 6.54 ypc, 1 TD.
Shotgun
Zone: 33 attempts for 128 yards, 3.88 ypc, 2 TD.
Man: 53 attempts for 206 yards, 3.89 ypc, 2 TD.
Other notes and observations
1) The Patriots had a clear gameplan as Mac Jones got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 72.7% of his dropbacks.
2) I see a lot of people claiming there were open receivers everywhere during the Patriots game and Allen simply wasn't seeing them. Were there some? Sure. Was it rampant? I very much disagree. I think that narrative was overblown and didn't take into account the nuance of the read progression and pressure. I have a feeling that these people are counting plays like the one below, which, sure, technically these players aren't covered - but what exactly do you want Allen to do here? He is about get wacked by multiple Patriots defensive players, and he has 3 receivers all within 5 yards of each other (tipped pass nightmare scenario). Maybe side arm a pass to the left crosser? I absolutely hate the spacing we have shown all year. I know what Dorseys play is attempting to do here, but you need time to do it.
The below image is another example. Yes, there are receivers open. However, Allen has to deal with a free rusher (literally not a single linemen sees him) and therefore can't keep his eyes downfield. So yes, technically open receivers, but the QB has to get out of dodge.
Another example below. Diggs JUST became open as he passed the LB level. The problem? Allen is being wrecked by a DT at the same time. Some will say Allen should be throwing with anticipation, but that is a very difficult throw - in-between and over the top of the defender?
Third down separation.
And yeah, I could find several plays where guys were open and Allen didn't go through his progressions fast enough. But the point is that there is nuance to these conversations. Many plays where receivers were "open" were in reality a situation where Allen had to take his eyes off of downfield due to a rusher. Other times, Allen got rid of the ball quickly because on the previous play, he got smacked by a free rusher. The whole pie matters.
3) Very rare to say this, but Taron Johnson played very poorly. He was responsible for the Patriots final two TD's, he had very poor leverage for the slant on both 2nd and 3rd down with seconds to go in the game, and he didn't get anywhere near his WR on the Patriots TD that put them ahead with 7 minutes left. Part of this is scheme and how our defensive backs were (I assume) taught to play the trips set that NE had on the field.
4) Poyer had a really slow start to the season but he has been playing much better over the previous 3 games.
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