GASabresIUFan

If he plays on passing downs and gets 5 sacks, that significantly more than the zero we received this past season. It’s not 25 mill value. It’s not even $5 mill in value, but considering we are stuck with him for this season, it’s at least a reasonable contribution for his roster spot.

Douglas isn’t being released. If he isn’t going to return, he is going to be traded. He is under contract for next year and we should get at least the 3rd we traded for him back. That said, I think he’ll be back. You don’t trade for a guy with term, who then played very well for you, then just dump him on the side of the road. Odds favor an extension, but maybe both sides are having trouble getting to a meeting of the minds on $ and term. People are reading to much into Beane usage of past tense. He was describing how Douglas played last season. He was also describing meeting him last year. Both of those events are in the past. Should have said he was looking forward to having him next season? Maybe, but since when does Beane care about the niceties? This could drag on for a while. Beane doesn’t have do anything with Douglas. Rasul is under contract. There is no cap cost to release or trade him. With the higher cap Beane may not have the urgency to extend Douglas as we all originally thought. Beane may now have the luxury of waiting to see how White recovers and/or how Elam progresses in the off-season workouts.

Bernard is just learning the things that Edmunds did well, but as someone else pointed out earlier, Bernard has the added ability to make the big play. I'll take a few mistakes here and there for a guy who can make a drive-stopping play. Last season Bernard had 143 tackles (84 solo), 6.5 sacks, 3 Fumble recoveries, 3 Ints, and 10 tackles for loss. That's an amazing season for anyone, much less a 2nd-year pro and 1st year starter. Edmunds has never had a stat line close to this good. Edmunds only has 6.5 sacks for his career. his best solo tackle season was his rookie year with 80, and he only has 1 FR for his career. When this kid learns more about O schemes and how to shed blocks faster, he'll be a great LB. He also needs to possibly get a little bigger. Pro-football-reference lists Bernard as 6'1 224. Edmunds is 6'5 250.

I guess I read that as a "whatever." When they let Edmunds walk, I wasn't that worried about replacing him. One of the big highlights of last season was watching all the kids thrive; Kincaid, Torrence, Cook, Shakir, Benford, and Benard. They are a huge reason that I'm perfectly ok with letting Davis walk and replacing him and the depth receivers with kids. This team desperately needs a youth movement and we have enough veteran leaders in the clubhouse to help more kids succeed. Truthfully, the vast majority of the FA signings throughout the lineup under-performed. Just look at the grades for Sherfield, Phillips, Rapp, Lawson, Murray, Miller and Settle. PFF also gave sub-par grades to Harty and Ford. Outside of Jones, Dodson, Floyd, and Edwards in limited usage, the FAs haven't excelled.

Actually, I didn’t really disagree with Joe’s assessment. Benard had huge peeks and was clearly learning on the job. However, he was a good tackler and will continue to improve. I expect him to make a huge leap in year 2 as a starter. I also am looking forward to Dorian Williams improvement in year 2. Benford is on his way to being the best 6th rd pick by the Bills in the last 30 years.

The Athletic did a ten-part series discussing a broad off-season game plan by position (except QB). https://theathletic.com/tag/bills-in-review-2024/ I thought the most instructive part was the grades for the season per player with 200+ snaps. Their point scale is on a 4.0 grade scale. I also looked up the grade on PFF (scale 0-100) for each player as a comparison. The Athletic's grade is based on film study and I'm not sure of the criteria for PFF. Most of the grades were relatively similar, except for a couple. The difference between Dodson's Athletic grade and PFF grade really stands out. What stands out to me was just how good Kincaid was as a rookie and how solid the entire O Line was. On Defense, Jones, Floyd, and maybe Epenesa look like the only FAs who should be brought back. Epenesa would have to be on a very reasonable contract. Of the depth FAs on Offense, PFF gave very good grades to Ty Johnson (82), Edwards (82.7), and Bates (78.7). Gabe Davis received a higher relative grade from the Athletic (2.96) than PFF (67.9).

It was predicted (The athletic) that we could save 3.12 on a McGovern restructure. 3.74 is better. https://theathletic.com/5238669/2024/02/02/buffalo-bills-offseason-salary-cap/

I think we all forget that Taron Johnson is also a CB. I wonder if Benford will eventually move to Johnson's role (Hybrid LB/Nickel CB) in the next few years. I like Douglas just where he is, but if Elam has a good camp and Douglas wants to take Hyde role, that's up to the coaching staff.

Apparently, my new unpopular opinion is that we don't need to waste 5-7 million on a FA veteran WR. That's a luxury we simply can't afford next season.

The Bills only have 30-35 players under contract that you can project to next year's roster. That leaves about 20 jobs available for rookies and FAs. The estimated cap cost for the draftees is about 10 million for the top 6-7 guys. So that leaves about 20 million for 13-14 players using your estimate of available cap space or about 1.6 to 1.7 per FA. Last season we signed McGovern for 3 years 22.5. We also gave Floyd 1 year at 7 million with some void years to lower his cap hit. Those were the two biggest deals last year and I'd be surprised if this FA season isn't similar. Most of the rest of the FAs last year were the parade of 2 million or less guys like Sherfield, Dodson, Lawson, Martin, Rapp, Joseph, and Edwards. We need 4-5 players along the D Line, 2-3 safeties, at least 2 RBs, a backup QB, and more depth on the Oline. 30 million just doesn't go as far as it used to.

I think Chinn is a very reasonable risk. When healthy he is a very good player. We need the help we can get at S.

No, we don't. We have vets at WR. Their names are Diggs and Shakir. When was Kincaid "caught up" last season as a rookie starter at TE? When was Torrence "caught up" as a rookie starter in the Oline? Both are much harder spots for a rookie to succeed than as a deep-threat boundary WR. Last season alone the NFL had 8 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs haul in 600 or more receiving yards. Do you expect a veteran WR we can afford to do better than that? People keep mentioning guys like Noah Brown (567 yards last season), Bourne (406 yards), Mooney (414 yards) and Reynolds (608 yards). Do you think any of those guys want to come here to be the 4? Is Beane going to pay 5-7 million to one of those guys as rookie failure insurance? I doubt it when he has other areas to spend his limited cap dollars on like D Line and safety. This is one of the those times where we are going to have to go young and see what happens. The Bills are still $41.3 million over the new cap. Even if they shave 70 million off the current cap figure, that doesn't leave much money to sign the draft picks (approx 10 million), rebuild the D Line, and get a starting safety, and a good backup QB, while also filling out the depth at RB, CB, O Line etc...

Saying the GM built the young group because they had a 1st year QB doesn't make any sense. You would think a GM would want some vets in his WR/TE groups to help a 1st year QB. GB had lousy WR/TE groups and they needed to be rebuilt for whomever. Unlike Beane, their GM invested significant draft assets in the position. Over the last two years used 8 draft picks to build a good receiving and TE group, including a 1st (Musgrove), 2 2nds (Reed and Watson), a 3rd (Kraft), a 4th (Doubs), a 5th (Wicks) and 2 7ths (Toure and Dubose). They also used a 3rd on Amari Rodgers in 2021. Most of these picks were drafted before Love was the starter. Also saying Championship caliber teams don't start rookies or young players is BS. Our starters last season included Torrence (Rookie), Kincaid (Rookie), Shakir (2nd year), Benford (2nd year), Benard (2nd year), and Cook (2nd year). All the 2nd year players received significant PT as rookies. The only way you stay competitive once you reach the top in a cap league is to draft well and have your kids play well. You have to keep turning over your roster to get younger and cheaper. This is where the Bills are.

Probably Miller in 2025, unless he has a great year this coming season.

It was a stupid Super Bowl or bust type contract and we are paying for that stupidity now. The Knox contract was pretty stupid as well.

I don't understand how you and others think there is $6 million floating around to pay a Reynolds or Brown to be our 4th receiver. They aren't going anywhere to be a 4 and it's a waste for Buffalo with so many other needs and limited cap space. Diggs and Shakir are the 1 & 3. We will be using a high pick at WR. That player is the 2 replacing Davis. The Bills only carry 5 WRs, thus after those 3 you are not investing $6 million or more in a 4th string wideout. The Bills already have Shorter in development, plus Isabella and Hamler as futures/reserve contracts. Is it possible that Beane finds a veteran for a $2 Million prove-it contract to come in and compete with Shorter, Hamler, and a later draft pick for a job? Sure it's possible, but don't expect that player that player to be on Reynolds' level. Spotrac projects Reynolds contract at $7 million and Brown at 5.6. I will give you one name that could come cheap, has talent, is young, and produced decently before last season and that is Chase Claypool. GMs, even good ones, go with inexperienced WR groups. GB's top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs last year were all 1st and 2nd-year players and they out-performed the Bills' group.

That is my point. Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players. Time to draft and develop our own depth.

No. Even with the cap increase the Bills still need to watch their pocket book this year and next until they are out from under Diggs , Knox and especially Miller. Last year I think McGovern was our biggest FA signing. Hopefully the bump in cap allows Beane to make two McGovern level signings (Jones & Chinn?). Even with the cap jump, the Bills are still 35+ over the cap. They also really only have about 30-35 players who you can project to next year’s roster depending on how some of the kids develop. If you clear 70 million off the off the cap, that leaves about 35 million to fill approximately 20 roster holes. Assuming 6-7 guys from the draft make the team (cost about $10 million), they leaves 25 million for 14 players. That’s about 1.7-1.8 per player. That what we paid Sherfield last year.

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats. Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021. So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles. Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games. However, you also proved my point. We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results. Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.

This has got to be my favorite mock draft so far. I traded down early twice to collect top 100 picks. Both trades were offered by the software. I then instigated two trades up later in the draft to keep the list at 11 picks. I ended up with two really good ex-bulldog receivers, one for his height and hands and one for his speed with decent size. I also drafted 3 DLinemen and 2 safeties to add depth to the D both short and long-term. I'm also thrilled with getting Van Pran, a future starting center, at the end the 3rd rd. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 31 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 3, Pick 94 2025: Round 4 2025: Round 5 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 193 Indianapolis Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 198 2024: Round 7, Pick 246 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 64 2024: Round 3, Pick 95 2025: Round 4 Kansas City Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 180 Carolina Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 202 2024: Round 6, Pick 206 My Selections 31 Adonai Mitchell WR | Texas TRADE 63 Javon Bullard S | Georgia TRADE 64 Ruke Orhorhoro DL | Clemson TRADE 94 Jonah Elliss EDGE | Utah TRADE 95 Sedrick Van Pran IOL | Georgia TRADE 99 Jermaine Burton WR | Alabama 129 Christian Jones OT | Texas 159 Jaylen Wright RB | Tennessee 162 Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB | Louisville 180 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama TRADE 193 Jordan Travis QB | Florida State TRADE

LOL, the Bills aren't cutting Miller. His cap hit is 23.8 million, but his dead cap is 32.5. Why would anyone essentially pay more not to have someone play? Even if you do the June 1 cut, his cap hit is 17 million and you adding a cap hit to 2025. Miller will be a Bill in 2024. Cutting him in 2025 makes much more sense. His dead cap would be down to 15.4 vs a roster cap hit of 23.9. However, a June 1 cut cap cost would be down to 6.4. This would be much more feasible. Below are Spotrac's recommendations for the Bills https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/ Cap casualties - White, Bates, Harty, Hines, and Hamlin. IMHO Harty and Hines need to go. Cutting Hamlin saves nothing, other than freeing a roster spot for his replacement. White is going to be restructured vs cut. If they are going to move on from Bates, it will be through trade, but a cap casualty Cap conversions - Allen (obviously), Knox (again likely), Poyer and Miller. They suggest Poyer conversation with 4 void years to save 2.8 mill and moving $8 mill of Miller's salary to a bonus. This will limit the cap vs dead cap in 2025, but opens money for this season. I doubt the Bills do this, especially if they want to move on in 2025. Extensions - Dawkins and T Johnson (both need to get done). Also Douglas (everyone agree here as well). Others - Diggs - Cap conversion. I think the increased cap makes this move less likely. Milano - conversion. I think this is an interesting question. It doesn't yield much, but makes it harder to move on from his deal in 2025 if he has another injury-plagued season. Ed Oliver - Contract extension. This looks more likely in 2025.

That’s great news for the Bills, but it gives every team more money to spend stupidly. Beane shouldn’t change his plan at all. This just gives him a better opportunity to get out of cap hell quicker.

I understand your argument. You’d like a veteran insurance policy in case the rookie early draft pick isn’t ready to contribute right away. Unfortunately I don’t think that player exists for a price we can afford. Might as well add Sherfield to the practice squad

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40. There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman. The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

We have vets, their names are Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid. Yes, the last 2 are young, but they have already proven themselves. We had a vet in the 2nd boundary last year in Davis and what good did that do us? Did you know that Davis was the 4th most productive (yards-wise) of the FA wide receivers? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/ Which of the available FA that we can afford could give us Davis-level production? I look through this list and I see Mooney, Reynolds, Peoples-Jones, and others and I'm like meh! I just don't see how any of those guys are truly an upgrade over Davis. No more band-aids. Because of the cap situation, Beane is going to have to take some risk in letting a few kids play. I'd rather a rookie start as our 4th receiving option vs starting a kid on the DL or safety.