PoundingDog

I'm with HappyDays. In business world, you talk about figuring out an MVP at this point. For those who do not know, MVP = minimum viable product, meaning minimum effort, maximum effect. At the beginning of the year, I thought DT should be the focus and I actually expected them to draft 2 DTs, one 1 tech. Well, they signed Daquan Jones and Austin Johnson, banking mostly on Daquan back to his pre-injury 2023 form. He didn't. And Austin Johnson is pretty much meh like his whole career. 9 games in, it is clear how to attack the Bills D. You need deep passing threat to keep Bills playing 2 deep safety because their safeties are not really that dynamic and the overall secondary lacks speed, and then you need capable running attack to put front 7 in a bind with running and quick short passing. Mind you not a lot of offenses have both and the Bills can certainly get-by without doing anything in the regular season to have a good record. But in the playoffs, you are likely to face teams capable of both to various degree. The other hope is we have an offense that can score often and fast to make opponent one-dimensional. Well, it is clear that is NOT the case this year, even with Josh playing at near MVP level. It's more of a grind-it-out offense. It's hard to change the whole defensive philosophy mid-season. The minimum effort to me is somehow yo upgrade the DT position. I doubt that will vault us up to the top team in AFC but it is the most logical way to try.

WR is tough. The ramp up time is much longer than a position player who does not touch the ball. So they have to weight in on when the injured guys can get back to play vs the traded guy can get up to speed.

Some Elam tape from the Miami game. Pretty good other than the Hill double move rep

That's why I said he needs to talk to Tom Brady, who has shown consistently able to pick the "obvious" - well part of the reason is that he never had the bazooka Allen/Mahomes have. Allen has come a long way and really, I mean he truly did, this season to not forcing the ball. But from time to time, he still shows that tunnel vision. I'm sure defense coaches are telling their guys to follow Allen's eyes and throw arms up. I want to see the Allen in Seattle's game, step back and fire decisively, short or long passes. You can tell in the start of the last drive, as well as the end of Houston game, Allen is not comfortable in seeing what he saw. Maybe something for Joe Brady to call some easy short passes to get the yip out of him to begin the drive - heck even a run with the way Cook/Davis is getting big runs.

It's my nick picking a bit here. Keon had to turn his body clock wise for the ball into his right shoulder/chest area. If the throw led him ahead just a bit, it would be more difficult for the trailing defender to disrupt him, which was really caused the ball not being caught. I said before that Keon has never one handed a ball with his left hand, so it could be a technique issue that Allen didn't try to get the ball in front. I'd think ideally you want to see the ball in front allowing Keon to left hand the ball in away from both the CB and Poyer.

Saw a comment in that video someone said the longest 1:45 of his/her life. Same feeling. Was anxious walking back and forth; couldn't sit down. I hope Allen talks to Tom Brady today. I felt like the last possession started badly because he's looking for a big play, a bit of sugar-high Josh there. The sack really put the Bills in a very bad position, time and distance wise, despite my high regards to Allen. The sequence after the Poyer penalty is more what I expect, some comebacker routes because you have to think among Keon, Dalton, and Shakir, someone is going to be single covered. Turned out that that person was Hollins after Keon went out. Going forward with Bass's 61 yarder in the books, I'd expect the last 2 attempts from Allen would be shorter, boundary passes just to make life easier on the kicker. I have no doubt yesterday Bass' range was in Joe Brady and Allen's heads where they tried to get another 10+ yards in those last two passes.

To me, it is a talent issue. The likes of Chris Jones - HOF level - will beat 90% OL one-on-one consistently, match-up in terms of skillset included. Oliver is not at that level. Like most DL-men, good ones as well, has particular strength and weakness where match-up plays a big role. You see he pops for a few games with favorable match-ups, then not much in others.

There is no question for me. Miami is going for 1 period. You know Buffalo is driving for a field goal either way. In a tie game, Buffalo might be more conservative actually. The situation is they need a TD so they can't really intentionally get the clock down - they have to take any opportunity presented itself for a score. If they don't get 2, the game is pretty much over despite the fact they have 3 TOs. The Bills had no problem moving the ball between the 20s, even in the first half. High probability the Bills get a 1st down.

So are we missing the rookie Carter?

We don't have that "play above the scheme" guy at D line, or any level and it shows. Miami has an average to below average O-Line but if the scheme allows them to get a guy squarely on a Bills defensive player, that play works most of the time. Give McDaniel credit. The theme today is to run the ball and quick passes from Tua; don't let Bills D line get started. And Bills offense had a couple of miscues the first half so Miami did not have the need to change things up to chase points. I don't know how many teams in NFL have a speed threatening WR duo like Hill and Waddle, and a trigger man getting ball out fast and accurate like Tua. It's a perfect storm against the Bills today.

It is the most likely scenario to me. Douglas is looking for the last big pay day and he's not going to sign a one year kind of short term deal. It's probably the reason the Bills just added a void year in his contract restructure, not plain extension, like Beane heard the expected numbers from Douglas side and didn't feel the need to negotiate on the re-structure conversation. I do expect the Bills to draft a CB somewhere next year but Elam will be the de facto starter to start the 2025 off-season. I thought Elam actually played fine today. Not great and not bad. He did get fooled by Hill double move, but Hill can make almost every CB in NFL fooled there, with Tua practically throwing quick passes all day. In fact I felt Elam's recovery speed showed up on that play, like McDermott said in the post game, within a whisker of defending that pass. Can Elam become another Rasul Douglas - a late boomer in NFL? I don't know. He seemed to be lacking natural instincts of where the play is going to be. As he moves around NFL, learning different systems, getting more experience of playing, he might be a capable starter. But superbowl hundary Bills don't have time to wait for that to happen.

I said Halloween party and Yankees game. We'll never know how much the Bills would win by if he had not, right? Good thing is it is still a W. Overall, not just Allen, the whole team seemed to be played a little drunk today, from execution perspective. Keon' TD turned into a pick, Cook could not catch an open pass. Defense consistently giving up big runs - we are not facing the Ravens! Coaching wise, McDaniel clearly found his cue (run and quick passes) and the Bills did nothing to force him to abandon his plan the whole game. Last week is probably the best game the Bills played this season. It is human nature to feel good ... I expect McDermott to keep pounding the message he said in the vistory speech today - "it is not easy to win in NFL."

I like the demeanor. Maybe he is really matured.

Watch for Achane run. They have timeouts. The D gotta make a play somewhere

We have Allen. That's it. Probably him and Mahomes doing these kind of stuff.

Give credit to the Dolphins stuck to the run game. Now let's see Bills counter punch.

Well, time to back up the Halloween party and Yankees game stuff

I'm less concerned about the #1 seed. Playing well at the right time and the ability to play above the scheme are more important. The Bills having a number of young promising players this year is what encourages me. 2nd year guys like Cook/Torrence are already there, just need to maintain that level. Can Kincaid improve in the 2nd half, adapting to the attention teams are giving to him? Can Dorian Williams still get better after the bye? Can Coleman/Carter/Davis continue their trend of improving along with the season? The signs are all positive. We are no longer in the world of veterans Diggs/Gabe/Knox world where what you see in the 1st half is what you get in the 2nd half/playoff.

Top FB pay is Niner's Juszczyk $4.5 million/year. There are probably 15+ TEs making over $10 million/year. There is no way Knox is going to a FB HB role. There are plenty of teams willing to give him 10 million to play TE in NFL.

They are not going to lay down this Sunday. As many pointed out, their season is on the line. And they are familiar with the Bills. I'm fully expecting some surprises McDaniel to throw some wrinkles at us. Their offense is at full strength and I do expect Tua to play better than the week 2 game - that was a really odd game for him who crapped the bed from the get-go. From fan and maybe the team perspective, the best way to describe the match-up is like how the 2000s era Bills team went to Foxborough, even in first 2 years when we got Josh Allen. No matter how good we felt about ourselves, you knew going there you are facing that QB, that defense mastermind that were just better than you in the end. The only time your hope was up or the players' confidence was up is when that team showed signs of self destruct, penalties that was not able to recover, turnovers.

Belichick mentioned that the Bills secondary overall is slow and that is very true. Schematically it limits them, basically they have to be very sound overall without taking much chances against great QBs, Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud, the like we'll see in playoffs. They tried to change that by drafting Elam and Bishop, but neither of them is able to get on the field yet. The best path for now, in my opinion, is to improve DL play. There is no Chris Jones to be had in trade market. But a Calais Campbell type may help a great deal.

Go back to the past a bit; look at how Milano got into the starting lineup in 2017. There was an article from D&C then https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/2017/12/15/buffalo-bills-rookie-linebacker-matt-milano-boston-college-nfl/953564001/ Milano replaced Ramon Humber last 4 games in 2017 season. The lucky part was he got two audition opportunities because Humber was hurt. Note the article also had a number of players' quotes which pretty much had fellow players noticing Milano thru games & practice. Bishop got one chance in that Texans game., arguably lost the game with the mishap, giving up Collins' long TD. If he had another chance to show what he has learned and improved upon that, maybe McDermott and Co. might have more confidence, as well as to the rest of the teammates. From management perspective, it is hard to switch when the team is winning and no glaring mistakes from Hamlin unless Bishop is really turning heads in practice. At this point, my guess is that the bye week, 3 games away, is where the team management will assess the team weakness holistically. If the team goes 3-0, which is a distinct possibility, they will surely look into the playoff run and assessing the team more from the perspective of measuring up against the likes of the Chiefs and Ravens, even specifically from the match-up angle and purposely looking for internal development towards those match-ups.

Talent wise, Hamlin is the least talent on Bills starting lineup, offense or defense. But he knows the system and is kind of steady in the sense of playing safe, i.e., not making a big mistake. I don't think anyone else coming from outside can do better even with better raw talent. Cole Bishop is the main logical choice. Had he not been set back by injury in the training camp, he might indeed be the starter. At this point, Bishop might make more splash play than Hamlin but also more mistakes than Hamlin. There are talks about Micah Hyde coming back to replace Hamlin. I don't know Hyde, at this point, will be any better than Hamlin to be honest.

Thanks for kind words. But I'm not the right person (nor do I have the time) to do that kind of film analysis. I mentioned on this board that I have a good friend who works for sports agency for a living, having dealt with a lot of NFL players. I will never mention any names or agencies in public. But I learned quite a bit from him. Once drafted, teams have a book on the player and they create a growth plan. The player's agency typically has connections with training entities specializing in different areas to recommend to or straight-up hook up for the player in off-season. There are a lot of details, very minute details for the player to improve year over year. I'm just aware of some of the details and from time to time, apply to my Bills players. I don't really watch that many NFL games outside my Bills. Khalil Shakir, for example, is someone I noticed who seems to catching the ball positioned best at stomach or lower. And he lets the ball go to the body, cradled with security all in one motion for his next shake and bake move without any wasted motion. I vividly remember one of his very first catches is that Steelers game in his rookie year (that Davis 98 yard TD game) where he jumped up catching the ball between a couple of defenders. But that is not his strength, in fact a few of his would-be catches in his career got knocked off by defenders because they were kind of chest or shoulder level balls. And you can see clearly now that Josh and the Bills must have worked on that and most of passes to him are at his stomach (or lower) level. And that is really perfect for your slot guy who roams in the middle of the field with traffic around him.

Speed does not equal to deep threat. MVS 40 time is 4.37 and he's been considered a deep threat as his biggest strength because he runs deep routes well. There are a lot of nuances in running those routes. Curtis Samuel is never considered a deep threat in NFL despite running a 4.31 in Combine because he was not used for deep routes very often, in fact his route running has a lot to be desired overall. His strength is versatility, and Brady is trying to use him that way here, some post route, some screen, some handoff. For whatever reason, Allen and Samuel never get that rapport on reading the body language or expecting a ball coming from the QB, and it just seems there is some easy give-away the opponents can key on him when he's about to get the ball, like the screen etc. At this point I feel the culprit may be on him because every other Bills WR has some kind of success.